The cinema exhibition industry in South Africa is experiencing stagnant cinema attendances. The strategic planning approaches being utilized by management in this industry currently are not fully encompassing of the width and breadth of the challenges and opportunities inherent in this industry and have been unable to solve the problem of stagnant cinema attendances. The study used a combination of recent, innovative approaches to scenario planning as a strategic planning tool, along with quantitative research to determine the perceptions of industry professionals in order to chart a course for the future of the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa The major conclusions in this paper are that scenario planning can be used to plan for a profitable future in the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa because of the emphasis the technique places on the uncertainty inherent in the future and the degree of influence that external factors have on the future of this industry. Cinema exhibitors in South Africa have not sufficiently taken into consideration the drivers of cultural, social, economic, and technological change that will determine the relative place of cinema attendance in South Africa of tomorrow. The major recommendations are that cinemas should become more than just cinemas by evolving into multipurpose interactive public "meeting places" where watching films is but one of a range of leisure-time activities and that cinema exhibitors should fully embrace technological advances and the opportunities that they bring, and not view them as a threat. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2006.

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This dissertation explores the relationship between scenario planning and the building of new social capital in addressing potential or actually perceived environmental turbulence. In particular, the research explores how, when environments around organizations risk unpredictable and disruptive change, people in those organizations can act to develop new social capital that contributes to their survival. In this research, I present scenario planning as a mechanism for organizations to build this new social capital. Scholars have suggested that certain forms of social capital are more conducive to being directly built than others. My research indicates that scenario planning entails aspects which, in effect, are direct investments in creating the cognitive social capital resources that make new sense of turbulence. These resources are created with the scenario process articulating new conceptual framings and possibilities for the future, thereby re-conceptualizing the situation. The resources enable new shared meanings to be created - directly building the cognitive dimension of new social capital while enabling the more researched structural and relational dimensions to be built as by-products. This dissertation also suggests that social capital can be built more quickly than researchers have previously indicated. By directly investing in the creation of new shared meanings, scenario planning can build new social capital faster than the centuries that Putnam and generations that Emery and Trist suggested were needed. The dissertation’s contribution to the social capital literature is to suggest how new social capital, by foregrounding the cognitive dimension, can be purposefully and more quickly built to address turbulent conditions. The contribution to the scenario planning literature is to propose a scholarly explanation for how scenario planning builds new social capital, suggested in practice but not yet theorized, and in so doing, provide practitioners with a new purpose to strengthen the return on investments these efforts require.

Este estudo visa à adaptação e aplicação de estratégia para avaliação e seleção de alternativas para melhoria das condições de mobilidade de uma cidade. A abordagem foi testada na cidade de Anápolis, Goiás, da seguinte forma: i) diagnóstico das condições atuais, a partir do cálculo do Índice de Mobilidade Urbana Sustentável; ii) aplicação de estratégia capaz de apontar alternativas para melhorar, de forma sustentável, as condições de mobilidade e iii) avaliação da influência da participação de diferentes profissionais nos resultados gerados com a estratégia proposta. O valor global do índice em Anápolis foi igual a 0,419, em uma escala que vai de zero a um. A comparação deste valor com o obtido em cidades de referência, como Curitiba (0,754) e Uberlândia (0,714), indica uma diferença expressiva. No entanto, a abordagem parece indicar caminhos para a melhoria da mobilidade, pois permite uma percepção rápida dos pontos avaliados, de forma positiva ou negativa, pelos especialistas consultados. Esta percepção pode estar comprometida, no entanto, pelo pequeno número de questionários respondidos. Além disso, o questionário aparentemente mostrou-se de difícil compreensão por alguns dos profissionais, sobretudo os gestores. Os resultados obtidos sugerem ainda que o cargo, atividade ou profissão do entrevistado podem influenciar na sua visão de planejamento. Neste caso, por exemplo, os especialistas (consultores) externos apresentaram resultados mais otimistas que os gestores locais. Tendo em vista estas diferenças, a avaliação de todas as ações propostas para mudança deve considerar um viés eventual, associado ao perfil ou posição dos entrevistados, especialmente se apenas pequenos grupos são considerados. / This study aims at the adjustment and application of a strategy to assess and select alternatives for improving the mobility conditions of a city. The approach was tested in the city of Anápolis, Brazil, as follows: i) overview of the current conditions, as given by the Index of Sustainable Urban Mobility; ii) application of a strategy designed to indicate alternatives for the improvement of the mobility conditions in a sustainable way, and iii) evaluation of the influence of the participation of different professionals on the results obtained with the proposed strategy. The overall value of the index in Anápolis was 0.419, in a scale varying from zero to one. The comparison of this value with the results of reference cities, such as Curitiba (0.754) and Uberlândia (0,714), indicates an important difference. However, the approach seems to indicate lines of action for the improvement of mobility, given that it allows a fast identification of positive or negative points raised by the experts. This perception may be misguided, however, due to the relatively small number of filled questionnaires. Also, apparently the questionnaire was not easily understood by some of these professionals, particularly the managers. The results also suggest that the position, activity or professional experience of the interviewee may influence in his/her planning view. In the case studied, for example, the experts (external consultants) offered more optimistic results than local managers. Given the differences, the assessment of any proposed actions for change must consider an eventual bias associated to the profile or position of the respondents, particularly if only small groups are considered.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T17:04:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 24 / Nenhuma / Em ambientes cada vez mais complexos e competitivos, aqueles que conseguem formular uma estratégia robusta e fundamentada terão mais chances de sucesso. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo desenvolver um método integrando os conceitos, princípios e práticas das abordagens de pensamento sistêmico, planejamento por cenários e planejamento estratégico, visando auxiliar no processo de formulação estratégica. A metodologia de pesquisa se caracteriza pela abordagem qualitativa e o estudo de caso é de natureza exploratória. Associado ao estudo de caso, para subsidiar a proposição do método, foram realizadas entrevistas com os condutores e participantes. Além destes subsídios empíricos, foram considerados as fontes teóricas que abordam os conceitos de planejamento estratégico, pensamento sistêmico e planejamento por cenários. Baseado nas análises das entrevistas, na exploração do estudo de caso e nas teorias apresentadas, é proposto um método sistêmico de formulação estratégica que possa auxiliar organizações de qual / In complex and competitive environments, those organizations that obtain a robust and based formulated strategy will have more possibilities of success. This research has for objective to develop a method integrating the concepts and principles and of the system thinking, scenario planning and strategic planning, aiming at to assist in the strategic formularization process. The research methodology is characterized by a qualitative approach and the case study it is an exploratory feature. Associated to the case study, to subsidize the proposal of the method, interviews with the conductors and participants had been carried through. Beyond these empirical subsidies, the theoretical sources had been considered that approach the concepts of strategic planning, system thinking and scenario planning. Based in the interviews analysis, in the case study exploration and in the presented theories, a system method of strategic formularization is considered that can assist organizations of any type in its strategic proce

Este estudo visa à adaptação e aplicação de estratégia para avaliação e seleção de alternativas para melhoria das condições de mobilidade de uma cidade. A abordagem foi testada na cidade de Anápolis, Goiás, da seguinte forma: i) diagnóstico das condições atuais, a partir do cálculo do Índice de Mobilidade Urbana Sustentável; ii) aplicação de estratégia capaz de apontar alternativas para melhorar, de forma sustentável, as condições de mobilidade e iii) avaliação da influência da participação de diferentes profissionais nos resultados gerados com a estratégia proposta. O valor global do índice em Anápolis foi igual a 0,419, em uma escala que vai de zero a um. A comparação deste valor com o obtido em cidades de referência, como Curitiba (0,754) e Uberlândia (0,714), indica uma diferença expressiva. No entanto, a abordagem parece indicar caminhos para a melhoria da mobilidade, pois permite uma percepção rápida dos pontos avaliados, de forma positiva ou negativa, pelos especialistas consultados. Esta percepção pode estar comprometida, no entanto, pelo pequeno número de questionários respondidos. Além disso, o questionário aparentemente mostrou-se de difícil compreensão por alguns dos profissionais, sobretudo os gestores. Os resultados obtidos sugerem ainda que o cargo, atividade ou profissão do entrevistado podem influenciar na sua visão de planejamento. Neste caso, por exemplo, os especialistas (consultores) externos apresentaram resultados mais otimistas que os gestores locais. Tendo em vista estas diferenças, a avaliação de todas as ações propostas para mudança deve considerar um viés eventual, associado ao perfil ou posição dos entrevistados, especialmente se apenas pequenos grupos são considerados. / This study aims at the adjustment and application of a strategy to assess and select alternatives for improving the mobility conditions of a city. The approach was tested in the city of Anápolis, Brazil, as follows: i) overview of the current conditions, as given by the Index of Sustainable Urban Mobility; ii) application of a strategy designed to indicate alternatives for the improvement of the mobility conditions in a sustainable way, and iii) evaluation of the influence of the participation of different professionals on the results obtained with the proposed strategy. The overall value of the index in Anápolis was 0.419, in a scale varying from zero to one. The comparison of this value with the results of reference cities, such as Curitiba (0.754) and Uberlândia (0,714), indicates an important difference. However, the approach seems to indicate lines of action for the improvement of mobility, given that it allows a fast identification of positive or negative points raised by the experts. This perception may be misguided, however, due to the relatively small number of filled questionnaires. Also, apparently the questionnaire was not easily understood by some of these professionals, particularly the managers. The results also suggest that the position, activity or professional experience of the interviewee may influence in his/her planning view. In the case studied, for example, the experts (external consultants) offered more optimistic results than local managers. Given the differences, the assessment of any proposed actions for change must consider an eventual bias associated to the profile or position of the respondents, particularly if only small groups are considered.

<p>Titel: Into tomorrow – Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century.Number of Pages: 54 (55 including enclosures)Author: Erik G AgebergTutor: Else NygrenCourse: Media and Communication Studies DPeriod: Spring semester 2009University: Division of Media and Communication studies, Department ofinformation science, Uppsala University.Purpose/Aim: The aim of this paper is to, through scenario planning methodology,present recommendations in order for record companies to be competitive in the nearfuture. In order to achieve this goal three question where asked. (1) What are the mostcentral problems of the record industry? (2) How can these problems affect the futurein the industry? (3) In what way can record companies’ work to avoid theseproblems? The paper focuses on the Swedish market partly because of the giventimeframe but also because of Sweden’s position in that of file sharing as well astechnological advances. It is also assumed in this paper that the future of music saleswill be concentrated to the Internet.Material/Method: The chosen method for this paper was scenario planning. Anextensive literature study was complemented with interviews of key players involvedin content consumption over the Internet.Main results: A fundamental issue for the future of the music industry is that oflegislation. The outcome of the record industry’s future is almost exclusivelydependent on the way, which the legislation takes. A stricter legislation, whichincludes violations of citizens’ personal integrity, may backfire and result in politicalpirate parties’ becoming members of parliaments. This may in turn result in that theintellectual property laws of the nineteenth century are removed. Suing privatepersons and trackers can result in record companies alienating an entire generation ofmusic consumers. Record companies attempts to retain music as a product may proveto be futile within time, but they can absolutely prolong the period in which it is aproduct. It is nevertheless, not entirely negative for music to become a service. Bybeing a service music can more easily be attached to another service, like an Internetsubscription, or an experience.</p>

Titel: Into tomorrow – Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century.Number of Pages: 54 (55 including enclosures)Author: Erik G AgebergTutor: Else NygrenCourse: Media and Communication Studies DPeriod: Spring semester 2009University: Division of Media and Communication studies, Department ofinformation science, Uppsala University.Purpose/Aim: The aim of this paper is to, through scenario planning methodology,present recommendations in order for record companies to be competitive in the nearfuture. In order to achieve this goal three question where asked. (1) What are the mostcentral problems of the record industry? (2) How can these problems affect the futurein the industry? (3) In what way can record companies’ work to avoid theseproblems? The paper focuses on the Swedish market partly because of the giventimeframe but also because of Sweden’s position in that of file sharing as well astechnological advances. It is also assumed in this paper that the future of music saleswill be concentrated to the Internet.Material/Method: The chosen method for this paper was scenario planning. Anextensive literature study was complemented with interviews of key players involvedin content consumption over the Internet.Main results: A fundamental issue for the future of the music industry is that oflegislation. The outcome of the record industry’s future is almost exclusivelydependent on the way, which the legislation takes. A stricter legislation, whichincludes violations of citizens’ personal integrity, may backfire and result in politicalpirate parties’ becoming members of parliaments. This may in turn result in that theintellectual property laws of the nineteenth century are removed. Suing privatepersons and trackers can result in record companies alienating an entire generation ofmusic consumers. Record companies attempts to retain music as a product may proveto be futile within time, but they can absolutely prolong the period in which it is aproduct. It is nevertheless, not entirely negative for music to become a service. Bybeing a service music can more easily be attached to another service, like an Internetsubscription, or an experience.

In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 &amp; Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC. Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security &amp; Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces. The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model. The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated. The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera. The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.

A regional planning model is designed to facilitate coordinated land use and transportation planning, yet have a sufficiently simple structure to enable quick scenario turnaround. The model, TransPLUM, is built on two existing commercial software products: the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM); and a four-stage travel model implemented in a standard software package. Upon creating scenarios users are able to examine a host of results (zonal densities, origin-destination trip flows and travel times by mode, network link flows, etc) which may prompt modification of a reference land use plan and/or network plan. A zonal density-accessibility ratio is described: an index which identifies the relative utilization of a zone and which could serve as a coordinating feedback mechanism. The model was implemented for a pilot study area – the Winnipeg Capital Region. Development of a baseline scenario is discussed.