Forskning visar att organisationer inom snabbt förändrade branscher behöver förutse och hantera förändringar. Scenarioplanering är en planeringsmetod som kan identifiera trender för att organisationer ska lättare kunna ta strategiska val. Tidigare forskning visar även att scenarioplanering också genomförts virtuellt där intressenterna varit på olika geografiska platser. Studien syftar på att ge ökad förståelse om hur digitala kommunikationsverktyg som Zoom.us påverka arbetet med scenarioplanering när arbetsprocessen genomförs virtuellt. Via kvalitativa metoder som fokusgrupper, enkäter och observationer samlades in data kring deltagarnas upplevelse av scenarioplanering och virtuell scenarioplanering. Materialet analyserades sedan via innehållsanalys. Studiens resultat visar att tidigare erfarenhet av scenarioplanering underlättade arbetsprocessen med virtuell scenarioplanering. Slutsatser som dragit är att kommunikationen delvis påverkades negativt av det digitala kommunikationsverktyget Zoom.us vilket försvårade den virtuella scenarioplaneringen. Trots detta väljer deltagarna att hellre arbeta med virtuella samarbeten och virtuell scenarioplanering snarare än traditionell scenarioplanering igen i framtiden. / Research shows that organizations in rapidly changing industries need to anticipate and manage change. Scenario planning is a planning method that can identify trends for organizations to make strategic choices more easily. Previous research also shows that scenario planning has also been carried out in a virtual way where the stakeholders vary in different geographical locations. The study aims to increase understanding of how digital communication tools such as Zoom.us affect the scenario planning work when the work process is carried out in a virtual way. Through qualitative methods such as focus groups, surveys and observations, data were collected about the participants experience of scenario planning and virtual scenario planning. The material was then analyzed via content analysis. The study's results show that previous experience of scenario planning facilitated the work process with virtual scenario planning. Conclusions drawn are that communication was partially negatively affected by the digital communication tool Zoom.us, which made the virtual scenario planning more difficult. Despite this, participants choose to work with virtual collaborations and virtual scenario planning rather than traditional scenario planning again in the future.

This study aims to examine Business Intelligence research conduct within Swedish government agencies and workplaces in order to understand the recent debate regarding Business Intelligence research ethics and thus answer the following question: Does Business Intelligence praxis in Sweden meet ethical guidelines recommended by international field experts? A theoretical analysis of relevant and also recent publications, including a Business Intelligence method review, was conducted using qualitative content analysis. In order to validate the results from my theoretical analysis I conducted a series of interviews with a number of professionals who useBusiness Intelligence research in their work and decisionmaking process. / Program: Magisterutbildning i strategisk information och kommunikation

In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC. Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces. The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model. The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated. The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera. The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.

<p>In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC.</p><p>Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces.</p><p>The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model.</p><p>The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated.</p><p>The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera.</p><p>The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.</p>

Bakgrund: Ledare behöver ofta ta ställning till och hantera nya digitala verktyg. Oftast faller de företag som inte hänger med i digitaliseringens snabba svängar mellan stolarna. Även ledarskapet genomgår en omvandling i och med digitaliseringen. Enkelheten i att kommunicera och dela information bidrar till att utmana hierarkier och funktioner i organisationer. Nu ökar användningen av teknik, inte minst på grund av den pågående Covid-19-pandemin. Det krävs av ledare att hitta nya sätt att fatta beslut på när arbetssituationen inte längre ser likadan ut som tidigare. Med hjälp av scenarioplanering kan ledare förbereda sig på de mer komplicerade besluten. En scenarioplanering handlar om att planera för möjliga utfall i framtiden baserat på det man vet i nuläget. Genom att skildra möjliga utfall hinner ledare planera och förbereda sig om något av dem inträffar. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att närmare undersöka vilken påverkan den ökade digitaliseringen kommer få på framtidens ledarroll samt att bidra till en ökad förståelse för hur digitaliseringen förändrar synen på ledarskap och rollen som ledare. Frågeställning: Hur kommer digitaliseringen påverka framtidens ledarskap? Hur kan ledare fatta beslut för att anpassa sig till digitaliseringens utveckling? Hur kan scenarioplanering användas som verktyg för att underlätta ledares beslutsfattande? Metod: Arbetet utgår från en abduktiv ansats med växelverkan mellan teori och empiri. Det empiriska resultatet är framtaget genom kvalitativa semistrukturerade intervjuer som sedan transkriberats och genomgått en form av tematisk analys där likheter och skillnader i intervjuerna pekats ut. Empiri och resultat: Empirin utgörs av intervjuer av experter respektive ledare. Expertintervjuerna bidrog till skapandet av scenariokorset och ledarintervjuerna bidrog med ett arbetslivsperspektiv på scenarierna. De fyra scenarier som tagits fram baseras på drivkrafterna kontroll och användning av framtida teknik. När scenarierna diskuterades med ledarna tog de bland annat upp att de hade föredragit mellanvarianter på scenarierna framför ett renodlat scenario. Slutsats: Genom att skapa scenarier svarar uppsatsen på hur digitaliseringen kan påverka framtidens ledarskap. Ledarna såg hellre en kombination av två scenarier istället för att ett scenario inträffar. Med kontinuerligt arbete kan scenarioplanering vara ett effektivt verktyg i den strategiska planeringen och beslutsfattandet. / Background: Leaders often need to take a stand on and manage new digital tools. Most often, the companies that do not keep up with the rapid turns of digitalization fall between the cracks. Leadership is also undergoing a transformation with digitalization. The simplicity of communicating and sharing information helps to challenge hierarchies and functions in organizations. Now the use of technology is increasing, not least due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Leaders are required to find new ways to make decisions when the work situation no longer looks the same as before. With the help of scenario planning, leaders can prepare for the more complicated decisions. Scenario planning is about planning for possible outcomes in the future based on what is known at present. By depicting possible outcomes, leaders have time to plan and prepare if any of them occur. Purpose: The purpose of the essay is to investigate in more detail the impact that increased digitalization will have on the future leadership role and to contribute to an increased understanding of how digitalisation changes the view of leadership and the role as a leader. Issue: How will digitalization affect future leadership? How can leaders make decisions to adapt to the development of digitalization? How can scenario planning be used as a tool to facilitate leaders' decision-making? Method: The work is based on an abductive approach with an interaction between theory and empiricism. The empirical result is produced through qualitative semi-structured interviews which then were transcribed and underwent a form of thematic analysis where similarities and differences in the interviews were pointed out. Empirical data and results: The empirical data consists of interviews with experts and leaders. The expert interviews contributed to the creation of the scenario cross and the leader interviews contributed with a working life perspective on the scenarios. The four scenarios developed are based on the driving forces of control and use of future technology. When the scenarios were discussed with the leaders, they mentioned, among other things, that they had preferred intermediate variants of the scenarios over a pure scenario. Conclusion: By creating scenarios, the essay responds to how digitalisation can affect future leadership. Leaders would rather see a combination of two scenarios instead of one scenario occurring. With continuous work, scenario planning can be an effective tool in strategic planning and decision-making.

Städer utgörs till 20–30 procent av gator, varför dessa är viktiga i arbetet med att minska städers bidrag till klimatförändringarna och att anpassa stadsmiljöer efter extremt väder. Mångfunktionalitet i stadsgator anses vara ett sätt att bemöta dessa utmaningar. Utav de många funktioner som kan rymmas i mångfunktionella gator utgår denna studie från vattenhantering och urban hållbar mobilitet. Med scenarier som baseras på forskningsrön och styrdokument undersöks utformningen av stadsgator med dessa två parametrar, samt hur de kan kombineras. Tre scenarier för tre olika sorters stadsgator i Göteborg presenteras. De nio scenarierna analyseras utifrån deras grad av mångfunktionalitet med utvärderingsverktyget Gatufunktionsindex, som för närvarande utvecklas i forskningsprojektet Smarta Gator. De viktigaste insikterna från arbetet är följande: - Att kombinera mindre ytkrävande egenskaper som gynnar vattenhantering respektive hållbar mobilitet är okomplicerat. Desto mer komplicerat är det med stora infrastrukturprojekt och stora vattenflöden, såsom skyfall, vilka innebär ett större mått komplexitet. - Stadsgatans roll i respektive funktions system bör tas i beaktande när konflikter mellan funktioner uppstår.- Med scenariometoden tillsammans med Gatufunktionsindexet skapas både möjliga utformningsförslag och hur nuvarande gatuutformningar domineras av trafikala funktioner och därmed ej möter de tidigare nämnda utmaningarna uppmärksammas.  Examensarbetet avslutas därefter med en diskussion om hur metoderna har använts och tankar om vidare studier. / Streets make up 20 – 30 percent of cities, for which reason these are of importance when planning to decrease urban environments’ contribution to climate change and to adapt them to extreme weather. Planning for multifunctional streets is considered to be one of the methods to meet these challenges. Out of the many functions there can be in streets, this study deals with urban water management and sustainable urban mobility. With scenarios that are based upon research findings and policy documents, the design of streets with these two parameters and the combination of them, are explored. Three scenarios for three different kinds of urban streets in Göteborg are presented. The nine scenarios are analysed based on their level of multifunctionality with the Street Multifunctionality Index, which is currently being developed in the research project Smarta Gator. The main findings of the project are: - Combining small features that support water management and sustainable mobility is not complicated. However, the complexity increases when major infrastructure projects and water flows, such as skyfalls, are to be combined. - The street’s role in each of the functions’ system should be considered when conflicts between functions arise.- The scenario method combined with the Street Multifunctionality Index brings forward possible street designs and shows how current street layouts are being dominated by traffic functions, thus not catering for the aforementioned challenges.  Finally, the thesis is concluded with discussions about the methods and what to investigate further.

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Bakgrund: Som resultat av globaliseringen och den ökade miljömedvetenheten har det medfört att logistikens roll blivit allt viktigare. För att företag ska förbli konkurrenskraftiga måste de koncentrera sig på att vara kostnadseffektiva samtidigt som de upprätthåller en hög nivå av kundservice. För att beslutsfattare ska kunna fatta bra beslut är en totalkostnadsanalys (TCA) ett viktigt verktyg för att stödja deras arbete. En TCA tar dock inte hänsyn till hur logistikkostnader kan utvecklas i framtiden vilket kan leda till en missvisande analys som kan få negativa konsekvenserför ett SME företag. Eftersom framtiden är svår att förutsäga kan en scenarioplanering vara ett verktyg för beslutsfattare eftersom denna metod tar hänsyn till externa faktorer och skiljer sig därmed från traditionella prognoser. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att upprätta en totalkostnadsanalys för respektive alternativ med fokus på logistikkostnader till Timber Windows som sedan ska kunna användas som underlag för beslutsfattande vid placering av hubb. Studiens syftar också till att skapa förståelse och undersöka hur en scenarioplanering kan addera mervärde till en totalkostnadsanalys med fokus på logistikkostnader för att utvärdera placering av hubb. Metod: För att kunna svara på studiens första två forskningsfrågor har en kvantitativfallstudie genomförts tillsammans med en deduktiv ansats. Till studiens tredje och sista forskningsfråga har istället en induktiv ansats använts. Primärdata har samlats in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer och därefter kompletterats med sekundärdata från fallföretaget Timer Windows, vetenskapliga artiklar, litteratur samt inhämtning av data från olika webbplatser. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att de identifierade logistikkostnader för Timber Windows nuvarande hubb i Vimmerby samt vid en eventuell flytt till Jönköping eller Stockholm är lastbil, drivmedel, personal, lager och truckkostnader. Studiens sammantagna totalkostnadsanalys visar att en flytt från Vimmerby inte skulle minskaTimber Windows logistikkostnader. Detta resultat kan ifrågasättas efter att scenarioplaneringen med scenariot High score genomförts som visar att Jönköping om tio år skulle kunna vara det bättre alternativet, jämfört med Vimmerby, eftersom det skulle bidra till kortare transportsträckor och därmed göra det möjligt för Timber Windows att utnyttja sina styrkor. Sammanfattningsvis kan studien konstatera att en scenarioplanering kan ge ett mervärde till en totalkostnadsanalys med fokus på logistikkostnader genom att beakta hur olika trender och drivkrafter kan komma att påverka framtiden. Vilket ger beslutsfattare i Timber Windows en mer omfattande och realistisk bild av potentiella framtida händelser som kan påverka logistikkostnaderna för valet av hubb. / Background: The result of globalization and increased environmental awareness has made the role of logistics increased significantly. Furthermore, this has also meant that companies must concentrate on being cost-effective while maintaining a high level ofcustomer service to remain competitive. For decision-makers to make good decisions,a total cost analysis (TCA) could be an important tool in order to support them. However, a TCA does not take into consideration how the logistical cost may changei n the future. By only including current costs without taking into account that these may change can lead to a misleading analysis which could have negative consequences for a SME. Because the future is difficult to predict, scenario planningcan be a great tool to the decision-makers as the method takes into account external factors and thus differs from traditional forcastings. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to establish a total cost analysis for each option(Vimmerby, Jönköping or Stockholm) with a focus on logistics costs for TimberWindows, which can then be used as a basis for decision-making on the location of thehub. The study also aims to understand and explore how scenario planning can add value to a total cost analysis focusing on logistics costs to evaluate the location of the hub. Method: To answer the study's two research questions, a quantitative case study with a deductive approach has been conducted. To answer the study's third and final research question, an inductive approach has been used instead. Furthermore, primarydata has been collected through semi-structured interviews and then complemented with secondary data from Timber Windows, scientific articles, literature and different websites. Conclusion: The results of the study show that the logistics costs identified in Timber Windows current hub and in a location in Jönköping or Stockholm are truck costs, fuel costs, storage costs, personnel costs and vehicle costs. The study's total cost analysis shows that a move from Vimmerby would not reduce the logistics costs for Timber Windows, a result that can be questioned after the created scenario High score, which shows that in 10 years, Jönköping may be the better choice, instead of Vimmerby, as it contributes to shorter transport distances and enables Timber Windows to utilize its strengths. In conclusion, the study shows that scenario planning can add value to a total cost analysis focusing on logistics costs by addressing how different trends and drivers may affect the future, giving Timber Windows decision-makers a more comprehensive and realistic picture of potential future events and potential situations that may affect the logistics costs of the hub selection.

Sammanfattning Bakgrund: Tjeders är ett anrikt företag i Malmköping som tillverkar larm och signalutrustning. I dagsläge känner Tjeders att deras varor och tjänster befinner sig i en slutfas i produktionscykeln, där vinsterna tas hem. Detta leder till att nya produkter och tjänster bör utvecklas. Metoden: Examensarbete har präglats av ett hermeneutiskt synsätt och en kvalitativ metodik. Teorin grundar sig i litteraturstudier och empirin på öppenriktade intervjuer samt omvärldsanalys i form av mediascanning. Den praktiska metoden har följt TAIDA, vilket är en övergripande modell för hur scenarioplanering sker. Diskussionen: I diskussionen sammanställs teorin med empirin där behandlas resonemangen om hur Tjeders ska gå vidare med de framkomna scenariona samt förslag kring handlade utifrån dessa. Resultatet: Examensarbete har resulterat i två scenariokors som behandlar teknik och marknad, scenariokorsen konstruerades genom en kreativ process där det insamlade materialet bearbetades. Detta är också detta examensarbetes innovationsbidrag. Empirin: Empiridata är grundad på personliga intervjuer och mediascanning. Under denna del tas också upp hantering av LOU och en kortare redogörelse för denna. Syftet: Syftet med examensarbete är att skapa några olika framtidsbeskrivningar kring teknik och marknad med relevans för Tjeders AB. Examensarbetet ska utmynna i två olika scenariokors som kan fungera som redskap i Tjeders strategiska arbete.

Background: The global marketplace is characterized by rapid and constantchange, resulting in complex logistics systems. The port industry, which is a crucial link in the supply chain, seeks to understand the complexity of market dynamics. Ports should understand the changing market dynamics to better meet the market demand and have a competitive advantage. One representative from the port industry is Swedish ports and the Port of Gothenburg, which will be the focus of this thesis. The market demand for paper and paperboard has been a significant driver of shipping activities in Swedish ports. The market demand for bulk and container shipping is also relevant due to its influence on the port’s operation. Furthermore, itis essential for port authorities to understand the demand-oriented infrastructure to develop strategies to meet the market dynamics. Purpose: This thesis has been undertaken on behalf of the PoG. The purpose of the thesis is to provide a clearer understanding of how the current and future market demand of paper and paperboard influence Swedish ports with scenario planning. Based on the future market demand for paper and paperboard, additional information of the future market demand for bulk and container will be included in the scenarios. By using the scenarios, recommendations will be given regarding investments the port authority at PoG needs to implement as a response to future paper and paperboard market demand. Methodology: The thesis has a qualitative case study with Port of Gothenburg as the study object. Data collection has been conducted through semi- and unstructuredinterviews from the Swedish forest industry, three forest companies and port authority at Port of Gothenburg. Additionally, scenario planning will be the main analysis method in this thesis. Conclusion: The current market demand for paper and paperboard indicates that demand for paper is decreasing, while demand for paperboard is increasing. The future market demand for paper and paperboard can develop in several ways. The authors of this thesis believe that the market demand for paper will have a structural fall with an exception for special paper. While paperboard will have a continuous increase. Furthermore, there is currently an increase of bulk and container shipping in the Port of Gothenburg. The authors believe that future market demand for bulk will be stable, while container will have an increased trend. However, as the market demand is hard to predict, the thesis presents four scenarios of different futureoutcomes of market demand for paper, paperboard, bulk- and container shipping. There are several investments needed for the Port of Gothenburg to respond to theestablished demand scenarios. Investments that will benefit Port of Gothenburg themost are Port Community System (PCS), Integrated Warehouse ManagementSystem (IWMS), Real-Time Location System (RTLS), development of port quays,larger quay cranes and floating islands, and cold ironing and renewable energy. Key words: Paper, Paperboard, forest industry, bulk, container, cargo shipping,seaport, Port of Gothenburg, scenario planning, port investments