This Master’s thesis seeks to develop a better understanding of how Indigenous voices can be included in water governance. As a starting point, social learning theory, collaborative governance and Indigenous and Canadian relations were carefully studied. Despite the large body of research on collaborative governance with First Nations and on social learning in water governance, little is known specifically about social learning processes in colonial contexts. Using grounded theory and Indigenous methodologies, this research investigates how the current approach to implementing the Province’s legal constitutional, “duty to consult” affects social learning processes and the inclusion of Indigenous people in water governance. Findings indicate that the laws and policies that have been created based on the Crown’s interpretation of Treaty 8, an agreement signed between the Fort Nelson First Nation and Canada in 1899. This duty to consult constrains social learning, as it does not allow for the flexibility needed for a reframing process that might bring the actors to a common understanding of Treaty 8, the treaty relationship and its application as such today, as a basis for future collaboration. Without reframing processes, the consultation process is perceived by the Fort Nelson First Nation, a Treaty 8 nation, to lack legitimacy and neutral facilitation. Subsequently, consultation is seen as a checkbox that must be completed, but fails to include First Nations’ knowledge, interests and concerns about impacts from development and appropriate accommodation. This research also investigates a new governance arrangement emerging in northeast BC, which changes the way Fort Nelson First Nation voices are included in decision-making. Processes of nation building and capacity building contribute to Fort Nelson First Nation’s New Approach to governance. The New Approach sees changes to the sites of authority, revenue and norms and beliefs, resulting in a governance innovation that circumvents the provincial government’s role in governance by creating a closer working relationship between industry and the Fort Nelson First Nation. The results are development planning and decisions that better reflect the Fort Nelson First Nation’s concerns and interests in the near future. / Graduate

頁岩氣對台灣化石業的影響與建議 / As America successfully explore shale gas and eagerly discuss its application from gas exporting to petrochemical industry downstream feedstock, shale gas comprehensive influence has made its self a hot topic since 2010. One third of Taiwan gas is from Malaysia and Qatar with importing cost around USD13-15/mmBTU, which are mostly used for power generation and domestic use and few are used for petrochemical industry because gas cost is too high comparing with naphtha. However, shale gas has brought down gas price to below USD4/mmBTU that provides a competitive advantage for America manufacturers and changes production method from naphtha to gas for petrochemical industry crackers. On the contrary, Asian petrochemical industry which are naphtha based crackers will face competition from America makers who has cheaper production cost and over supplied in domestic market and looking for international market. Taiwan petrochemical industry, dominated by two major petrochemical companies, is facing several difficulties including limited space for capacity expansion and furious competition from China and ASEAN. We will explore the possibility for Taiwan to import shale gas and any solutions to improve our situation.

Les problématiques de l’énergie et de l’environnement sont un des principaux défis pour l’humanité au XXIème siècle. La croissance mondiale de la demande d’énergie est confrontée aux préoccupations environnementales (y compris la pollution, le réchauffement climatique et la réduction des émissions de CO2), en particulier dans les régions en croissance économique rapide comme l’Asie. Le transfert de l’utilisation des sources d’énergies traditionnelles comme le charbon, le pétrole, vers les sources d’énergie plus propres et des énergies renouvelables est une tendance inévitable à l’avenir. Dans le contexte actuel, le gaz naturel est considéré comme une source d’énergie propre qui jouera un rôle important dans le processus de transition énergétique vers une économie bas-carbone. Les conséquences pour les marchés de gaz naturel peuvent être considérables. La condition d’une telle évolution est de disposer d’une offre en gaz naturel importante. Le développement du gaz non conventionnel, en particulier le gaz de schiste, fournit une opportunité d’expansion de l’approvisionnement gazier mondial comme le montre la « révolution du gaz de schiste » aux États- Unis. Celle-ci a profondément modifié les marchés gaziers régionaux. Toutefois, cette « révolution » n’est guère reproductible à d’autres régions du monde. Cette thèse démontre en particulier qu’en dehors des facteurs géologiques, des conditions institutionnelles (fiscalité, droits de propriété), économiques (prix, technologies) et organisationnelles (libéralisation des marchés) sont nécessaires pour assurer un développement à grande échelle des ressources non conventionnelles. Cette thèse montre que ces conditions ne sont pour la plupart pas réunies ni en Europe ni en Asie (notamment en Chine). Dès lors, une transition par le gaz pour répondre aux enjeux climatiques en Asie se fera par la voie des importations et non par une production propre à la région. A partir de trois scénarios du modèle POLES basés sur des hypothèses de politique climatique, de développement du gaz de schiste et d’augmentation rapide de la demande de gaz dans le mix énergétique, en particulier en Asie, deux principales conclusions émergent. Tout d’abord, l’importance du développement des gaz de schistes aux USA, leur bas coût de production induisent au niveau mondial une offre de gaz abondante et compétitive par rapport à d’autres énergies notamment par rapport au charbon. Par conséquent, même sans politique climatique, les conditions sont réunies pour que la part du gaz naturel puisse croître dans le mix énergétique. Deuxièmement, une politique climatique affirmée a des effets contradictoires quant à l’importance du gaz naturel dans les mix énergétiques des pays asiatiques. D’un côté elle permet une pénétration plus importante du gaz naturel dans leur mix énergétique. Mais dans le même temps, limitant la demande d’énergie, les volumes de gaz naturel demandés ne sont que légèrement plus importants que dans des scénarios sans politique climatique. / Energy and environmental issues are one of the main challenges for humanity in the 21st century. Global growth in energy demand links to environmental concerns including pollution, global warming and reduction of CO2 emissions. In particular, it is an urgent request in rapidly growing developing regions such as Asian countries. Using cleaner energy sources, renewable energy instead of traditional energy sources like coal and oil is an inevitable option in the future. In the current context, natural gas is seen as a clean energy source which plays a major role in the energy transition process towards a low-carbon economy. The consequences for natural gas markets are significant and the condition of this change is an abundant supply of natural gas. The development of unconventional gas, particularly shale gas, provides an opportunity to expand the global gas supply. This is illustrated by the “shale gas revolution” in US which has profoundly changed the regional gas markets. However, this "revolution" is hardly reproducible in other regions of the world. This thesis demonstrates particularly that apart from geological, institutional conditions (taxation, property rights), economic (prices, technologies) and organizational (free markets) are necessary for a large scale development of unconventional resources. This research also shows that most of these conditions are not met in Europe or Asia (especially in China). Therefore, an energy transition by natural gas to meet climate challenges in Asia will be solved through imports, rather than through regional production. From three scenarios of the POLES model based on assumptions about climate policy, shale gas development and rapid increase of demand for gas in the energy mix (particularly in Asia), two main conclusions emerge. The developments of shale gas with low cost in the USA make the global gas supply abundant and more competitive than other energies, particularly coal. Therefore, even without climate policy, the conditions are ripe for the increaseof natural gas proportion in the energy mix. Secondly, a strong climate policy has contradictory effects on the relative share of natural gas in the Asian energy mix. On the one hand, it allows natural gas larger penetration into the energy mix of Asia. But at the same time, with limitation of energy demand, requested natural gas volumes are only slightly higher than in scenarios without climate policy.

Submitted by DAVI BOMTEMPO (davibomtempo@gmail.com) on 2015-11-05T22:01:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 O gás sob pressão - o mapeamento de stakeholders e o lobby no parlamento_Versão_Entregue_FGV.pdf: 847469 bytes, checksum: b6853710fc97c4c0ee7af5bf8ffa5105 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2015-11-06T11:09:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 O gás sob pressão - o mapeamento de stakeholders e o lobby no parlamento_Versão_Entregue_FGV.pdf: 847469 bytes, checksum: b6853710fc97c4c0ee7af5bf8ffa5105 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-11-09T12:39:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 O gás sob pressão - o mapeamento de stakeholders e o lobby no parlamento_Versão_Entregue_FGV.pdf: 847469 bytes, checksum: b6853710fc97c4c0ee7af5bf8ffa5105 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-11-09T12:40:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 O gás sob pressão - o mapeamento de stakeholders e o lobby no parlamento_Versão_Entregue_FGV.pdf: 847469 bytes, checksum: b6853710fc97c4c0ee7af5bf8ffa5105 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-28 / Este estudo objetivou identificar os stakeholders que influenciam a agenda do gás de xisto no parlamento brasileiro. A pesquisa teve uma abordagem qualitativa, uma vez que não houve preocupação com os números e sim com a percepção dos entrevistados. Além disso, os dados coletados na pesquisa de campo foram interpretados e alinhados com o referencial teórico desse trabalho. Quanto à metodologia, foi classificada como exploratória, uma vez que ainda há pouco conhecimento sobre a influência de grupos de interesse no Congresso Nacional, do tipo pesquisa de campo e de estudo de caso por se tratar especificamente da exploração do gás de xisto. A coleta de dados foi feita por meio de entrevistas e da aplicação de questionário com um roteiro previamente estabelecido. Após a análise dos dados, concluiu-se que há duas correntes que atuam na agenda do gás de xisto. A primeira tem um posicionamento que preza pela precaução, ou seja, é necessário que se descubra os impactos da exploração da atividade no meio ambiente antes que se decida iniciar a exploração e a produção do gás de xisto. A segunda corrente defende a exploração desse gás não convencional como forma de reduzir os custos de produção e aumentar a competitividade do país. Foram identificados 39 stakeholders que influenciam o andamento do Projeto de Lei 6904/2013, que suspende a autorização e a exploração do gás de xisto por um período de cinco anos. Isso mostra que os grupos de interesse, uns mais poderosos que outros, têm papel importante na formulação de políticas públicas e, através do lobby, buscam influenciar os tomadores de decisão de acordo com os seus objetivos. / This study aimed to identify the stakeholders that influence the shale gas agenda in the brazilian parliament. The research had a qualitative approach since there was no concern with numbers but with the perception of respondents. In addition, the data collected in the field research was interpreted and aligned with the theoretical material. Regarding the methodology, it was classified as exploratory as yet little is known about the influence of interest groups in Congress, the type of field research and case study because it specifically deals of exploration of shale gas. Data collection was done through interviews and a structured questionnaire. After analyzing the data, it has been concluded that there are two stances in the shale gas agenda. The first one has a position that values caution, that is, it is necessary to know about the environmental impact of the exploration activity before deciding to start the exploration and production of shale gas. The second stance defends unconventional gas exploration in order to reduce production costs and increase competitiveness. They identified 39 stakeholders that influence the progress of the Projeto de Lei 6904/2013, suspending the permit and the exploitation of shale gas for a period of five years. This shows that interest groups, some more powerful than others, play an important role in the formulation of public policies and, through lobbying, try to influence decision-makers according to their goals.

La citoyenneté opère un retour en force dans le domaine environnemental, visible tant dans les dispositifs de participation destinés à inclure l’ensemble des citoyens dans les prises de décision, que dans des mouvement de contestation voire des résistances à des projets d’aménagement ou certains usages de l’espace. Ces deux types d’expériences participatives constituent pour ceux qui y prennent part - citoyens, acteurs associatifs, élus, professionnels des politiques publiques - de véritables lieux d’apprentissages politiques. Par l’exploration d’une procédure institutionnalisée de participation (une conférence de citoyens sur la gestion de l’eau) et d’une mobilisation contestataire (contre le gaz de schiste), ce travail identifie d’une part ce que les acteurs apprennent, et d’autre part les modalités par lesquelles ils apprennent. L’enquête ethnographique et le recours aux sciences de l’éducation font l’originalité de cette recherche qui propose de décrire et d’analyser finement des expériences d’apprentissages politiques, d’éducation au conflit comme à la participation. / Citizenship has been making a strong resurgence in the environmental field, visible both in institutionalised procedures intended to include all citizens in decision-making, and in protest movements or resistance to some planning projects or land uses. For those who take part - citizens, members of associations, policy makers and public policy professionals -, these two kinds of participatory experiences represent significant spaces for political learning. Through the exploration of an institutionalised procedure for public participation (a citizens’ conference on water management) and a protest movement (against shale gas), this work identifies what actors learn on the one hand, and the learning methods on the other. The ethnographic survey and the use of educational sciences constitute the originality of this research which describes and analyses experiments in political learning, education to conflict as well as participation.

Os folhelhos pretos devonianos da Formação Barreirinha caracterizamse pela alta radioatividade na porção basal, grande extensão areal, espessura e profundidade de soterramento variável que vão de exposição na superfície até mais de 3000 m. Eles são as principais rochas geradoras do sistema petrolífero convencional da Bacia do Amazonas, e recentemente foram consideradas como promissores plays de gás não convencional. Folhelhos são geralmente caracterizados por uma matriz fechada, que faz com que sejam relativamente impermeáveis em relação ao fluxo de gás, a menos que ocorram fraturas, e dependendo das suas características geológicas e geoquímicas podem funcionar com um Sistema Petrolífero autossuficiente, atuando tanto como rocha fonte, quanto como reservatório de gás (reservatório Shale Gas). Assim, o gás natural termogênico ou biogênico gerado pode ser armazenado em folhelhos ricos em matéria orgânica na forma livre, adsorvida, ou em estado dissolvido. Em contraste com os sistemas petrolíferos convencionais, reservatórios Shale Gas, possuem mecanismos de aprisionamento e armazenamento únicos, sendo necessária a utilização de técnicas de avaliações específicas. No entanto, folhelhos prolíficos geralmente podem ser reconhecidos a partir de alguns parâmetros básicos: arquitetura geológica e sedimentar, propriedades geoquímicas e petrofísicas e composição mineralógica. Tendo em vista a carência de pesquisas de caráter descritivo, com cunho exploratório dos folhelhos geradores da Formação Barreirinha, esta dissertação tem como objetivo introduzir uma metodologia de identificação de intervalos de folhelho gerador com potencial para reservatório Shale Gas. Começando com uma investigação regional sobre o contexto geológico e sedimentar, seguido de uma avaliação abrangente enfocando as características geoquímicas, petrofísicas e litofácies dos folhelhos a partir da integração de parâmetros obtidos de perfis geofísicos de poço, análises geoquímicas e aplicação dos conceitos de Estratigrafia de Sequencia. / The Devonian black shale of Barreirinha formation is characterized by high radioactivity in the basal portion, large areal extension, thickness and depth of burial variable which ranges from exposure to surface to depth greater than 3000 m. This formation contains the main source rocks of conventional petroleum system of the Amazonas Basin, and recently were considered promising unconventional gas plays. Shales are generally characterized by a closed die, which makes them relatively impervious for gas flow unless fracturing occur, and depending on their geological and geochemical characteristics they might behave as a selfcontained Petroleum System, acting as both source rock and as a gas reservoir (Shale gas reservoir). Thus, the thermogenic or biogenic gas generated can be stored in shale rich in organic matter in free form, adsorbed or dissolved state. In contrast to conventional petroleum systems, Shale Gas reservoirs, have trapping mechanisms and unique storage, requiring the use of specific assessment techniques. However, prolific shale can usually be recognized based on some basic parameters: geological and sedimentary architecture, geochemical and petrophysical properties and mineralogical composition. Given the lack of descriptive research, about the exploration potential of the Barreirinha formations shale, this dissertation aims to introduce a methodology of identification of intervals that could be potential shale gas reservoirs. Starting with a regional research about the geological and sedimentary context, followed by a comprehensive review focusing on the geochemical characteristics, petrophysical and lithofacies based on the integration of the parameters obtained by well log, geochemical analysis and application of Sequence Stratigraphy concepts.

Os folhelhos pretos devonianos da Formação Barreirinha caracterizamse pela alta radioatividade na porção basal, grande extensão areal, espessura e profundidade de soterramento variável que vão de exposição na superfície até mais de 3000 m. Eles são as principais rochas geradoras do sistema petrolífero convencional da Bacia do Amazonas, e recentemente foram consideradas como promissores plays de gás não convencional. Folhelhos são geralmente caracterizados por uma matriz fechada, que faz com que sejam relativamente impermeáveis em relação ao fluxo de gás, a menos que ocorram fraturas, e dependendo das suas características geológicas e geoquímicas podem funcionar com um Sistema Petrolífero autossuficiente, atuando tanto como rocha fonte, quanto como reservatório de gás (reservatório Shale Gas). Assim, o gás natural termogênico ou biogênico gerado pode ser armazenado em folhelhos ricos em matéria orgânica na forma livre, adsorvida, ou em estado dissolvido. Em contraste com os sistemas petrolíferos convencionais, reservatórios Shale Gas, possuem mecanismos de aprisionamento e armazenamento únicos, sendo necessária a utilização de técnicas de avaliações específicas. No entanto, folhelhos prolíficos geralmente podem ser reconhecidos a partir de alguns parâmetros básicos: arquitetura geológica e sedimentar, propriedades geoquímicas e petrofísicas e composição mineralógica. Tendo em vista a carência de pesquisas de caráter descritivo, com cunho exploratório dos folhelhos geradores da Formação Barreirinha, esta dissertação tem como objetivo introduzir uma metodologia de identificação de intervalos de folhelho gerador com potencial para reservatório Shale Gas. Começando com uma investigação regional sobre o contexto geológico e sedimentar, seguido de uma avaliação abrangente enfocando as características geoquímicas, petrofísicas e litofácies dos folhelhos a partir da integração de parâmetros obtidos de perfis geofísicos de poço, análises geoquímicas e aplicação dos conceitos de Estratigrafia de Sequencia. / The Devonian black shale of Barreirinha formation is characterized by high radioactivity in the basal portion, large areal extension, thickness and depth of burial variable which ranges from exposure to surface to depth greater than 3000 m. This formation contains the main source rocks of conventional petroleum system of the Amazonas Basin, and recently were considered promising unconventional gas plays. Shales are generally characterized by a closed die, which makes them relatively impervious for gas flow unless fracturing occur, and depending on their geological and geochemical characteristics they might behave as a selfcontained Petroleum System, acting as both source rock and as a gas reservoir (Shale gas reservoir). Thus, the thermogenic or biogenic gas generated can be stored in shale rich in organic matter in free form, adsorbed or dissolved state. In contrast to conventional petroleum systems, Shale Gas reservoirs, have trapping mechanisms and unique storage, requiring the use of specific assessment techniques. However, prolific shale can usually be recognized based on some basic parameters: geological and sedimentary architecture, geochemical and petrophysical properties and mineralogical composition. Given the lack of descriptive research, about the exploration potential of the Barreirinha formations shale, this dissertation aims to introduce a methodology of identification of intervals that could be potential shale gas reservoirs. Starting with a regional research about the geological and sedimentary context, followed by a comprehensive review focusing on the geochemical characteristics, petrophysical and lithofacies based on the integration of the parameters obtained by well log, geochemical analysis and application of Sequence Stratigraphy concepts.

não-convencionais de metano biogênico em folhelhos podem representar importante recurso energético e contribuir significativamente para emissões de gases do efeito estufa. Com o intuito de avançar na compreensão dos controles na geração de metano (CH4) e dióxido de carbono (CO2) em folhelhos ricos em matéria orgânica, o presente estudo avaliou o potencial de geração e a estrutura de poros de folhelhos das bacias sedimentares do Paraná e Taubaté, localizadas na região sudeste do Brasil. As formações Ponta Grossa (Devoniano, Bacia do Paraná), Irati (Permiano, Bacia do Paraná) e Tremembé (Paleógeno, Bacia de Taubaté) foram analisadas de modo a obter-se taxas de produção biogênica de CH4 e CO2 sob diferentes condições. Para tanto, foram efetuadas incubações de 24 amostras de folhelho em laboratório, sob meios seco, aquoso e com adição de ácido ácetico, durante períodos de até 1 ano. Também foram realizadas análises para a determinação do teor de carbono orgânico e testes de adsorção para caracterização de poros e superfície específica das amostras de folhelho com o intuito de compreender o papel destas variantes na geração de gases biogênicos. As taxas de produção de gás biogênico em amostras incubadas a seco atingiram valores de até 3,17 ml/t.d (CH4) e 2,45x10³ ml/t.d (CO2) durante os primeiros 30 dias. Amostras incubadas com adição de água demonstraram aumento de 54% na produção de CH4 e 151% na produção de CO2. A adição de ácido acético no sistema foi responsável pelo reínicio ou aumento da produção de CH4 e CO2 na maioria dos casos avaliados. A Formação Irati apresentou o maior potencial para produção de metano biogênico entre as unidades estratigráficas estudadas, fator que pode estar ligado à biodegradação de petróleo pesado presente nos poros. O volume total de poros e a superfície específica de amostras aparenta não afetar a produção biogênica. Entretanto, a umidade e disponibilidade de substrato exercem controle predominante no potencial de geração de CH4 e CO2 biogênicos em folhelhos ricos em matéria orgânica. / Unconventional biogenic shale gas systems may represent an important energy resource and significantly contribute to geological greenhouse gases emissions. In order to better understand the controls on biogenic methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) generation in organic-rich shales, the present study evaluated the generation potential and the pore structure of shales from Taubaté and Paraná basins, located in southeastern Brazil. The Ponta Grossa (Devonian, Paraná basin), Irati (Permian, Paraná basin) and Tremembé Formations were analyzed in order to quantify production rates of biogenic CH4 and CO2 under distinct experimental conditions. Twenty four shale samples were used for batch incubations under dry, wet and acetic acid solution conditions during time periods reaching up to 1 year. The organic carbon content and nitrogen adsorption analysis for determining specific surface area and porosity were also performed to evaluate their role on biogenic gas generation.The biogenic gas production rates in samples under dry conditions reached up to 3.17 ml/t.d (CH4) and 2.45x10³ ml/t.d (CO2) during the first 30 days of incubation. Samples under wet conditions demonstrated production rates 54% higher for CH4 and 151% higher for CO2 in comparison with dry tests. Acetic acid addition restarted or increased CH4 and CO2 production in most cases. The Irati Formation showed the highest potential for biogenic methane production, which could be linked to the biodegradation of heavy liquid hydrocarbons occurring in this unit. Total pore volume and specific surface does not appear to significantly affect the biogenic production of CH4 and CO2. However, water content and substrate availability would exert predominant control over the biogenic gas generation within organic rich shales.

The thesis focuses on the influence of new natural gas sources on energy security in the USA. The new sources include mainly shale gas, but also tight gas and others. The main objective of the thesis is to evaluate the impact of changes in production and trade in gas on energy security and self-sufficiency of the USA. The thesis is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is theoretic and thus provides the frameworks for the following parts of the thesis. It focuses on the security concept in literature and in the papers of international energy agencies, e.g. IEA. For the purposes of the thesis, energy security is defined as the ability of a state to secure uninterrupted and stable supply of energy at a reasonable price of sufficiently diversified energy sources, which can be flexibly substituted among each other without additional costs by the end consumers. The second chapter concentrates on energy security in the USA, the development of energy legislation and the position of the United States in international comparison from this point of view. The third chapter deals with the technical background of production and its legislative status of the USA. To compare, it also addresses the production legislation in some EU countries. It follows up market implications of increased domestic production, specifically its profitability, changes in energy mix and in trading position of the USA in energy sources. The fourth chapter analyzes price impacts using change in domestic and foreign demand and supply in natural gas, including their price elasticity, and the price development itself. The fifth chapter summarizes, based on the findings from previous chapters, perspectives of the future development, mainly impacts on economy and potential export. The thesis comes to the main conclusion stating that the production from domestic sources shall have a positive impact on energy security not only in the USA, but also consecutively in other countries dependent on import of energy sources through higher diversification of source countries. Better available commodity may contribute to greater price competitiveness of domestic products on international markets and help to substitute coal with gas in energy mix. The biggest risk is seen in the low gas price that makes the production economically unprofitable. However, the gas price should maintain the level which would allow for profit of the producers, reasonable price for the consumers and increased level of energy security thanks to further development of the production technology, its better price availability and increased demand on cleaner energy sources.

Master's s thesis determines potential influence of "shale miracle" observed in the U.S. since the first decade of new millennium on energy independence which has been one of the U.S. policy priorities since the 1970s' oil shocks. Technological development and innovations supported by the government triggered an unexpected and in its way unique boom, which significantly strengthened the U.S. economy. The thesis examines impact of oil crises on the U.S. energy policy, history of unconventional gas and oil extraction, and the federal involvement in energy R&D programs. Energy independence is analyzed in terms of three fundamental pillars (reducing the amount of imported oil, reducing the energy intensity of economy and increasing energy self-sufficiency). All of the models, schemes and calculations cover a period of 1973-2013. Two indicators -- improving self-sufficiency and decreasing energy intensity of the economy -- speak in favor of achievable energy independence. However, deficient energy balance suggests otherwise. In case the need to fill the gap between energy production and consumption by foreign oil imports (which have been at their historically highest values since the 1990s) remains, then a complete energy independence as well as security is just an illusion.