This thesis describes project management methodology implementation in a consulting company and examines the impact of this methodology on key success factors of the company. The theoretical part deals with issues related to project management implementation in a company and describes well-known methods and standards in this area while focusing on PRINCE2 methodology, which has been chosen for the implementation. The theoretical part continues by describing the process of creating system dynamics models, which allowed the key success factor models to be created as tools for evaluation of the methodology implementation impacts. The practical part of this thesis describes the background for the methodology implementation project and then the implementation itself in detail. The practical part continues by showing and describing the created key success factor models. In the end, the methodology impacts evaluation is carried out, analyzing changes in separate elements of the model breakdown.

Coal is a fossil fuel mineral, which is presently a major source of electricity and energy to industries. From past to present, there are many coal reserves around the world and large scale coal mining operates in various areas such as the USA, Russia, China, Australia, India, and Germany, etc. Thailand’s coal resources can be found in many areas; there are lignite mining in the north of Thailand, the currently operational Mae Moh Lignite Mine, and also coal reserves in the south of Thailand, such as Krabi and Songkhla, where mines are not yet operating. The main consumption of coal is in electricity production, which increases annually. In 2019, the Thai Government and Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) plans to run a 800 MW coal power plant at Krabi, which may run on imported coal, despite there being reserves of lignite at Krabi; the use of domestic coal is a last option because of social and environmental concerns about the effects of coal mining. There is a modern trend in mining projects, the responsibility of mining should cover not only the mining activity, but the social and environmental protection and mine closure activities which follow. Thus, the costs and decisions taken on by the mining company are increasingly complicated. To reach a decision on investment in a mining project is not easy; it is a complex process in which all variables are connected. Particularly, the responsibility of coal mining companies to society and the environment is a new topic. Thus, a tool to help to recognize and generate information for decision making is in demand and very important. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of coal mine planning is made by using Vensim Software and specifically designed to encompass many variables during the period of mining activity until the mine closure period. The decisions use economic criteria such as Net Present Value (NPV), Net Cash Flow (NCF), Payback Period (PP), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), etc. Consequently, the development of the decision support system of coal mine planning as a tool is proposed. The model structure covers the coal mining area from mine reserves to mine closure. It is a fast and flexible tool to perform sensitivity analysis, and to determine an optimum solution. The model results are clear and easily understandable on whether to accept or reject the coal mine project, which helps coal mining companies make the right decisions on their policies, economics, and the planning of new coal mining projects. Furthermore, the model is used to analyse the case study of the Krabi coal-fired power plant in Thailand, which may possibly use the domestic lignite at Krabi. The scenario simulations clearly show some potential for the use of the domestic lignite. However, the detailed analysis of the Krabi Lignite Mine Project case shows the high possible risks of this project, and that this project is currently not feasible. Thus, the model helps to understand and confirm that the use of domestic lignite in Krabi for the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project is not suitable at this time. Therefore, the best choice is imported coal from other countries for supporting the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project. Finally, this tool successfully is a portable application software, which does not need to be installed on a computer, but can run directly in a folder of the existing application. Furthermore, it supports all versions of Windows OS.

Der Wandel von konventionellen Antriebskonzepten hin zu Alternativen wie der Brennstoffzellentechnologie vollzieht sich in einem sehr dynamischen Umfeld. Entsprechend komplex gestaltet sich die Problemstellung, eine Fabrik zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt mit langfristigem wirtschaftlichem Erfolgspotential zu dimensionieren. Im folgenden Beitrag wird ein Ansatz vorgestellt, der die Einbeziehung der Umweltsituation in den Fabrikplanungsprozess ermöglicht. Unter Anwendung des System Dynamics-Ansatzes wird ein Simulationsmodell aufgebaut, welches die Auswirkungen von Umwelteinflüssen auf die Kapazitätsdimensionierung darstellt. Dabei werden Umweltdaten aus dem öffentlichen, technologischen und wirtschaftlichen Umfeld der Brennstoffzellenfertigung erhoben. Die so erhobenen Daten dienen als Grundlage für die Bestimmung von Modellierungsparametern, welche die wesentlichen Umwelteinflüsse repräsentieren. Im anschließenden Simulationslauf wird das dynamische Zusammenspiel der Einflüsse betrachtet und mit einer monetären Bewertung untersetzt. Die aus dem Simulationsmodell gewonnenen Ergebnisse belegen, dass die weitgehende Berücksichtigung von Umweltdaten im Umfeld der Brennstoffzellenfertigung praktikabel ist und zu vorteilhafteren Planungsergebnissen beitragen kann. / The shift from conventional drive concepts to alternatives such as fuel cell technology is taking place in a very dynamic environment. The problem of dimensioning a factory with long-term economic success potential is correspondingly complex. In the following paper an approach is presented which allows the inclusion of environmental factors into the factory planning process. Using the System Dynamics approach, a simulation model is built which represents the effects of environmental influences on capacity dimensioning. Environmental data from the public, technological and economic environment of fuel cell manufacturing are collected. The collected data serves as a basis for the determination of modeling parameters, which represents the main environmental influences. In the subsequent simulation run, the dynamic interaction of the influences is considered and underpinned with a monetary evaluation. The results obtained from the simulation model prove that the extensive consideration of environmental data in the environment of fuel cell production is practicable and can contribute to more advantageous planning results.

Die Bedeutung innovativer Geschäftsmodelle als Bestimmungsfaktor für den Unternehmenserfolg steht weitestgehend außer Frage. Aufgrund der hohen Komplexität von Geschäftsmodellen hat sich jedoch bislang kein praktisch anwendbares Bewertungskonzept etablieren können, welches Geschäftsmodellinnovationen in Hinblick auf deren Erfolgsentwicklung untersucht. Zur Adressierung dieser Problemstellung wird unter Anwendung des systemdynamischen Ansatzes ein Simulationsmodell entwickelt, welches den Wertbeitrag einer Geschäftsmodellinnovation ausweist. Neben dem Kapitalwert als finanzielle Wertgröße des Geschäftsmodells werden ferner der Kundenwert sowie der Wert der unternehmerischen Fähigkeiten als wichtige Wertgrößen explizit gemacht, da sie die zukünftige Leistungs- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Geschäftsmodells determinieren. Damit liefert das Bewertungsmodell einen Ansatz zur ganzheitlichen Geschäftsmodellbewertung, die die Anwendung finanzieller Standardkalkulationen mit der Messbarmachung nicht-finanzieller Erfolgsgrößen kombiniert.:1 Einführung 2 Geschäftsmodelle und Geschäftsmodellbewertung 3 Entwicklungsprozess des systemdynamischen Geschäftsmodells bedarfsabhängiger Funktionserweiterungen 4 Aufbau des systemdynamischen Geschäftsmodells bedarfsabhängiger Funktionserweiterungen 5 Simulation des systemdynamischen Geschäftsmodells bedarfsabhängiger Funktionserweiterungen 6 Schlussbetrachtung / Business model innovations provide powerful levers for creating sustainable competitive advantage and thus have a positive impact on the value of an enterprise. However, due to the complexity of business models, no practically applicable framework, evaluating an innovative business model with regard to its effect on a company’s success, has been established. Hence, a simulation model assessing the value contribution of a business model innovation is developed. Using the mathematical modeling technique ‘System Dynamics’ to frame the value drivers of a business allows for simulation experiments that reveal the effect of the business model’s design on its profitability, therewith guiding policymakers towards better decisions. As a result, the simulation model reports the net present value of a business model. In addition, the success indicators customer lifetime value and the value of the enterprises’ capabilities are identified as important assets that have to be monitored closely as they determine the company’s prospective performance. In combining financial standard calculations with the operationalization of non-financial measures, the simulation model represents a comprehensive approach for business model evaluation.:1 Einführung 2 Geschäftsmodelle und Geschäftsmodellbewertung 3 Entwicklungsprozess des systemdynamischen Geschäftsmodells bedarfsabhängiger Funktionserweiterungen 4 Aufbau des systemdynamischen Geschäftsmodells bedarfsabhängiger Funktionserweiterungen 5 Simulation des systemdynamischen Geschäftsmodells bedarfsabhängiger Funktionserweiterungen 6 Schlussbetrachtung

One of the largest challenges’ mankind is currently facing has been recognized to be climate change. Moving towards climate neutrality, decoupling economic growth from resource use, and at the same time ensuring long-term competitiveness becomes highly important. A possible path to decrease our impact on the environment is to switch from linear to circular material flows, which is today referred to as a circular economy. In a circular economy, assets that are being reused will induce a demand for transportation. Understanding how the transportation demand could be affected is important, since the sector is widely known through its environmental impact causing impaired life expectancy in many parts of the world. This study examines therefore variables in circular businesses that could affect transportation demand both directly and indirectly. These variables have been identified by interviewing eight businesses that employ repair & reuse configurations in a circular context. The study concludes that transportation could be affected in numerous ways, depending on the system's future development. If the current linear paradigm still governs the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), it will be hard to increase the amount of viable products circulating in the system. The current paradigm has been recognized to be a large barrier due to the high uncertainty of OEMs continuance in a transition to a circular economy. If OEM collaboration could be increased extensively, the system could increase its growth. Further, customer behaviour has also been identified to be a driver for both increasing and decreasing transportation in the system. Increasing the amount of viable products circulating in a circular system comes naturally, as the trade-off in Co2-emissions between increased transportation and newly produced products is prominent. Having such a holistic view argues for the implementation, but the system still has implications regarding sustainability. As the trade-off is continuously made, demand for transportation will be increasing as the system grows. Looking at this from the perspective of the transportation industry, such implementation could make it harder to decrease its Co2-emissions with 70% by 2030, which is the goal set by the Swedish government. / De pågående klimatförändringarna är en av vår tids största utmaningar. Att minska resursanvändningen och samtidigt bibehålla samhällets ekonomiska tillväxt ses därför som väsentligt för att nå ökad klimatneutralitet. Till följd av detta har den cirkulära ekonomin utvecklats där linjära produktflöden ersätts av cirkulära. Skiftet till cirkulära flöden kommer troligen bidra till ett nytt transportbehov då produkter i större utsträckning byter användare. Att förstå och kunna redogöra hur det uppkomna transportbehovet ser ut är av betydelse då transportsektorn i sig utgör en stor utmaning i arbetet med att minska den totala klimatpåverkan. Denna studie ämnar därför att studera åtta cirkulära företag och dess verksamheter för att identifiera centrala variabler som har en direkt eller indirekt påverkan på behovet av transporter. Studien visar på att transportbehovet kan tänkas påverkas på olika sätt beroende hur det cirkulära systemet utvecklas framöver. Om det linjära paradigmet fortsätter att gynna originaltillverkare, tillika produkttillverkare, kommer det bli svårt för det cirkulära systemet att uppnå några betydande volymer. Det linjära systemet har identifierats vara en barriär då det förblir osäkert till vilken grad produkttillverkare är redo att bidra till de nya cirkulära flödena. Om tillverkare blir mer öppna och möjliggör för externa aktörer att reparera och hantera deras produkter så spås de cirkulära flödena öka. Vidare så har kundbeteende identifierats som en drivande faktor som både kan leda till en ökad och minskad mängd transporter inom det cirkulära systemet. Att öka mängden cirkulerande produkter kommer naturligt eftersom utsläppsnyttan är betydande vid jämförelse av ökade transporter och nytillverkning av produkter. Helhetsperspektivet argumenterar således för att öka cirkulära produktflöden. En ökad mängd cirkulära produkter kan dock innebära stora utmaningar för transportsektorn och dess förmåga att nå de uppsatta klimatmålen.

Globally, the incidence of infection caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae is the second highest among the bacterial sexually transmitted infections. In Canada, declining rates during the 1990s suggested progress toward curbing gonorrhea; however, those have been increasing since 1999, with rates in Saskatchewan among the highest in the country. Infection can cause serious complications in men and women, and reported resistance to third-generation cephalosporins could lead to potentially untreatable infections. Increased understanding of gonorrhea transmission dynamics, sexual networks, and predictors of antimicrobial resistance development is needed to inform the development of improved approaches to prevention and treatment. The research presented herein draws upon data from Shanghai, China, and Saskatchewan, Canada, to compare and contrast varying epidemiologic approaches to enhancing understanding of gonorrhea in the two settings. Using traditional statistical approaches, multi-level statistical modeling, social network analysis, and dynamic simulation modeling, questions related to sexual behavior, partner presentation, and antimicrobial resistance development are explored. Each technique is evaluated for its potential contribution to overall understanding of the issues related to the ongoing gonorrhea epidemic, globally, and in Saskatchewan. The relative strengths and limitations of the application of the analytical approaches in the different settings are described. Socio-demographic characteristics provided useful indicators of antimicrobial resistant infection among patients with gonorrhea from Shanghai. Further, socio-demographic characteristics were also useful for predicting presentation of a partner for testing and treatment and the use of condoms during intercourse, among this study population. In Saskatchewan, socio-demographic characteristics were useful in predicting coinfection with gonorrhea and chlamydia at the time of diagnosis as well as repeat infection with gonorrhea. Social network analysis of the Saskatchewan dataset provided little additional understanding of the gonorrhea epidemic in the province. This result was largely related to how STI data are collected and stored in the province. The utility of dynamic simulation modeling to investigate the potential impact of antimicrobial resistance in Saskatchewan was also limited due to the same data constraints. However, the insight gained from the model building process and findings from the working model did offer a starting point for conversations around the best ways to postpone the development of antimicrobial resistance in N. gonorrhoeae in Saskatchewan, as well as contribute additional information about how the ways in which STI data are collected and stored in the province considerably restrict the applicability of otherwise powerful epidemiologic tools. With persistently high rates of disease transmission, and the threat of untreatable infections due to antimicrobial resistance, N. gonorrhoeae remains a substantial public health threat locally and globally. The research presented herein describes various approaches to understanding and controlling this disease, applied in contrasting settings. There are a wide variety of elements that should be considered when choosing the appropriate tool(s) to address gonorrhea in a given population; there is no “one size fits all” solution. The local epidemiology of disease, cultural and behavioural norms, the characteristics of the notifiable disease reporting and information systems, and the availability of suitable data all affect the relative strengths and weaknesses of the available analytic methods and disease control approaches.

The Canterbury region of New Zealand experienced four earthquakes greater than MW 6.0 between September 2010 and December 2011. This study employs system dynamics as well as hazard, recovery and organisational literature and brings together data collected via surveys, case studies and interviews with organisations affected by the earthquakes. This is to show how systemic interactions and interdependencies within and between industry and geographic sectors affect their recovery post-disaster. The industry sectors in the study are: construction for its role in the rebuild, information and communication technology which is a regional high-growth industry, trucking for logistics, critical infrastructure, fast moving consumer goods (e.g. supermarkets) and hospitality to track recovery through non-discretionary and discretionary spend respectively. Also in the study are three urban centres including the region’s largest Central Business District, which has been inaccessible since the earthquake of 22 February 2011 to the time of writing in February 2013. This work also highlights how earthquake effects propagated between sectors and how sectors collaborated to mitigate difficulties such as product demand instability. Other interacting factors are identified that influence the recovery trajectories of the different industry sectors. These are resource availability, insurance payments, aid from central government, and timely and quality recovery information. This work demonstrates that in recovering from disaster it is crucial for organisations to identify what interacting factors could affect their operations. Also of importance are efforts to reduce the organisation’s vulnerability and increase their resilience to future crises and in day-to-day operations. Lastly, the multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the recovery and resilience of organisations and industry sectors after disaster, leads to a better understanding of effects as well as more effective recovery policy.

This thesis aims to fill the gaps in the literature of the theory of constraints (TOC) in publicly funded health systems. While TOC seems to be a natural fit for this resource-constrained environment, there are still no reported application of TOC’s drum-buffer-rope tool and inadequate customizations with regards to defining system-wide goal and performance measures. The “Drum-Buffer-Rope for an Outpatient Cancer Facility” chapter is a real world case study exploring the usefulness of TOC’s drum-buffer-rope scheduling technique in a publicly funded outpatient cancer facility. With the use of a discrete event simulation model populated with historical data, the drum-buffer-rope scheduling policy is compared against “high constraint utilization” and “low wait time” scenarios. Drum-buffer-rope proved to be an effective mechanism in balancing the inherent tradeoff between the two performance measures of instances of delayed treatment and average patient wait time. To find the appropriate level of compromise in one performance measure in favor of the other, the linkage of these measures to system-wide performance measures are proposed. In the “Theory of Constraints’ Performance Measures for Publicly Funded Health Systems” chapter, a system dynamics representation of the classical TOC’s system-wide goal and performance measures for publicly traded for-profit companies is developed, which forms the basis for developing a similar model for publicly funded health systems. The model is then expanded to include some of the factors that affect system performance, providing a framework to apply TOC’s process of ongoing improvement in publicly funded health systems. The “Connecting Low-Level Performance Measures to the Goal” chapter attempts to provide a framework to link the low-level performance measures with system-wide performance measures. It is claimed that until such a linkage is adequately established, TOC has not been fully transferred to publicly funded health systems.

The objective of this thesis is to explore how a systems approach can be used to provide an insight into patient safety in NHS hospitals in England. Healthcare delivers considerable benefits yet there remains a relatively high rate of harm and death for patients through adverse events occurring during the process of treatment. The extant patient safety literature acknowledges the influence of organisational or system factors on patient safety. However, the literature is weak in explaining how system factors affect patient safety. To provide an insight into the interactions within healthcare systems, this research explores the characteristics of NHS hospitals, regarded as complex socio-technical systems, using concepts from resilience, systems, accident and social theory. A theoretical Safe Working Envelope (SWE) model (Rasmussen, 1997) is developed and contextualised for use in the NHS. The case study field work was carried out in two NHS hospitals during consecutive winter months at times of high demand for inpatient services. A third case study uses secondary data about patient safety failures in the Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust. The original SWE model has three failure boundaries. The model is developed by introducing an additional boundary to take account of Government targets. Social theory and system dynamics are used to include the dialectic feedback of social actors and the dynamics of workload. The model depicts the competing pressures, constraints and the workload associated with the need to meet the financial, target, staff workload and patient safety requirements. Three interacting construct sets are explored. These are the constraints within which the system operates, the pressures from the context, and the system dynamics of demand, capacity and decision making. Insights into system behaviours of the hospitals are derived from examining the construct set interactions. The proposition is made that there are five system behaviour archetypes which create the conditions that influence patient safety. The archetypes are derived from the system dynamics and in particular the relationship between reinforcing and balancing feedback loops. The five archetypes are safe practice, drift, tip, collapse and transition towards failure. As hospitals become overcrowded the complexity increases and the reinforcing feedback loops dominate the system and potentially increase the risk to patients. An element of risk arises from staff normalising to the drift in standards of care.

The society today lives on the philosophy of ‘take-make-use-dispose.’ In the long run, this is not sustainable as the natural resources and the waste carrying capacity of the earth are limited. Therefore, it is essential to reduce dependency on the natural resources by decoupling the growth from the consumption. In this venture, both the society and the manufacturing industry have a vital role to play. The society needs to shift towards Circular Economy that rests upon the philosophy of ‘take-make-use-reuse’ and the manufacturing industry has to be a major stakeholder in this shift. Despite being proven to be both economically and environmentally beneficial, successful examples of circular systems are few today. This is primarily due to two reasons; firstly, there is a lack of systemic and systematic approach to guide industries and secondly, there is a lack of analysis methods and tools that are capable of assessing different aspects of circular manufacturing systems. Taking on to these challenges, the objective of this research is to bring forward a framework with methods and decision support tools that are essential to implement circular manufacturing systems. The initial conceptual framework with the systemic approach is developed based on extensive review and analysis of research, which is further adapted for industrial implementation. Systematic analysis methods, decision support and implementation tools are developed to facilitate this adaptation. This development has been supported by four cases from diverse manufacturing sectors. Behind each decision support tool, there are analysis methods built upon mainly system dynamics principles. These tools are based on simulation platforms called Stella and Anylogic. Among other things, these tools are capable of assessing the performance of closed-loop supply chains, consequences of resource scarcity, potential gains from resource conservation and overall economic and environmental performance of circular manufacturing systems. / <p>QC 20170522</p> / ResCoM: Resource Conservative Manufacturing- transforming waste into high value resource through closed-loop product systems