This project uses multiple linear regression to predict the value of Major League Baseball free agent contracts, inspired by the low volume of published research on this topic. I found one published paper that shared my research goal but its predictive power needed improvement. An in depth comparison of our models is carried out with k-fold cross validation mean square prediction error being used as the main standard. The predictor variables considered in my models were related to performance evaluation and position, and the response variable was inflation-adjusted average annual value of the contract. The result of the project is two linear regression models, one for hitters and one for pitchers.

Using data from the 2000-2016 Major League Baseball seasons, this paper looks at the determinants of durability amongst baseball athletes, durability is measured in games played for batters and innings pitched for pitchers, with a particular focus on height and weight. This paper finds evidence that lighter, shorter batters play significantly more games than taller, heavier batters. Additionally, amongst pitchers, there is only circumstantial evidence that height and weight are important determining factors of player durability. Finally, I find that starting pitchers increase the likelihood of becoming injured in the regular season by 10.3% and 21.8% if their hits per nine innings and home runs per nine inning totals, respectively increase by one.

Master of Science / Department of Journalism and Mass Communications / Barbara DeSanto / The purpose of this study was to take a closer look at the use of advanced statistics in Major League Baseball (MLB) radio broadcasts and the possible effects usage could have on the roles of MLB broadcasters. This study used a theoretical framework supported by role theory and diffusion of innovations theory. The study employed in-depth interviews of eight MLB radio broadcasters to get a better understanding of the broadcasters’ thoughts on the value of advanced statistics, how using advanced statistics could affect their role as a broadcaster, the factors that influence the potential inclusion of advanced statistics in their broadcasts, and ultimately, whether broadcasters perceived advanced statistics as a trend or a fad. The interviews revealed a number of things about the baseball broadcasting industry with disagreements appearing in regards to techniques in using advanced statistics in broadcasts and the value of advanced statistics to listeners. Despite the disagreements, the most important finding was the unanimous belief that advanced statistics are not a fad, but rather something that will remain a part of baseball broadcasts going forward.

The focus of this thesis was to investigate which baseball metrics are most conducive to run creation and prevention. Stepwise regression and Liu estimation were used to formulate two models for the dependent variables and also used for cross validation. Finally, the predicted values were fed into the Pythagorean Expectation formula to predict a team’s most important goal: winning. Each model fit strongly and collinearity amongst offensive predictors was considered using variance inflation factors. Hits, walks, and home runs allowed, infield putouts, errors, defense-independent earned run average ratio, defensive efficiency ratio, saves, runners left on base, shutouts, and walks per nine innings were significant defensive predictors. Doubles, home runs, walks, batting average, and runners left on base were significant offensive regressors. Both models produced error rates below 3% for run prediction and together they did an excellent job of estimating a team’s per-season win ratio.

本研究耙梳1950年代至2010年台灣棒球投手調度觀念的演進，並試圖解釋其演進的過程。本研究著重在投手調度觀念的演進過程，及相關團體因不同的利益考量進行的角力。這些利益的角力形成台灣的投手調度策略的現況。從時代上來說，本研究以1970年代少棒旋風、1990年中華職棒成立、2000年前後開啟的球員旅外潮來劃分投手調度觀念演進的時代。本研究認為，這幾個不同年代發生的重要歷史事件對台灣棒球造成的影響，深刻地影響了投手調度觀念的演進，並證明投手調度／保護觀念並不僅是醫學觀念的單純引進與發揚過程。這過程其實是支持與反對的團體對詮釋權的爭奪戰。本演研究將兩方的邏輯劃分為「脆弱投手邏輯」和「強壯投手邏輯」。目前「脆弱投手邏輯」之所以能在台灣職業棒球領域中獲得上風，關鍵性的原因在於它與「棒球數據派」的成功結盟，借用其強大的說服力取得詮釋論戰上的優勢。反之，在三級棒球的領域，也因為「棒球數據派」的介入程度較低，使「脆弱投手邏輯」的拓展遭遇困難。 本研究的主要架構是以行動者網絡理論（Actor- Networking Theory）為基礎，試圖以關涉在此一網絡裡主要行動者的結盟與角力作為投手調度觀念演進的解釋。 / This study explores the process of baseball pitcher policy in Taiwan. The process showed a long but significant change in pitcher policy, and made the loading of pitcher decrease. The process continued more than 40 years and there were three important historic events in it. The first was the “Youth Baseball Period” in 1970’s. The second was the professionalization of Taiwan baseball in 1990. And the third was the “Traveling Outside Period” in 2000’s, which made lots of excellent players travelled to America or Japan. This research analyzed the process carefully, and found that the change of pitcher didn’t base on the progress of medicine, although we usually think it was. The study found that the change based on the interest of groups which involved in the network. Some groups supported decreasing the loading of pitcher, some opposed. All they concerned about were their own interest. This research analyzed the process by Actor-Networking Theory (ANT) and found a key-factor which determined the pitcher policy. The factor was Sabermetrics, which means people who believe baseball statistics can express more “reality” in baseball game. They also believe statistics can tell more than just watching game in court. The Sabermetrics finally combined their interest with groups which supported decreasing the pitcher loading, and caused the pitcher policy tend to decrease the pitcher loading at present.