本研究旨在探討投資人情緒與月營收資訊是否能夠解釋台灣股票報酬，以及投資人情緒是否影響對於月營收資訊的解讀。實證結果發現，前期月營收資訊、前期投資人情緒以及兩者乘積對當期股票報酬有顯著的正向影響。表示月營收資訊的揭露能帶給投資人資訊，作為交易時的考量，而前期投資人情緒能夠部分解釋當期股票報酬。兩者乘積表示營收資訊和投資人情緒為同期時，投資人對於資訊的解讀會受到情緒影響，進而影響股票的報酬。進一步探討，當投資人面對月營收成長率高、月營收波動低時，對於其月營收資訊的解讀傾向伴隨著情緒。 / This study wants to discuss whether sales information and investor sentiment could explain Taiwan stock market and whether investor sentiment affects their interpretation on sales information. The empirical results show that the sales information last period, investor sentiment last period and the multiplication of these two are significantly positively correlated to current stock returns. It indicates that the sales disclosure is informative to investors as a consideration while trading and investor sentiment can partially explain the stock returns. The estimate of multiplication which is positive indicates that when sales information and investor sentiment are in the same period, investors’ interpretation on sales information would be affected by their sentiment, and further affecting the stock returns. We further find that when companies have the characteristics of high sales growth rate and low sales volatility, their sales information tends to be interpreted by investors emotionally.

銷售情報一直是行銷研究的一個重心，透過銷售情報之收集，可以掌握與了解消費者對各種不同商品、價格、通路及促銷活動的反應，以協助製造商、批發商及零售商擬定出有效的生產、配銷、商品選擇及販賣等重要決策。而日常消費品產業基本上是以產品的銷售為核心的相關產業之集合體，因此經由多個不同通路上銷售情報之收集與分析，便可使產業中的各廠商掌握更精準可靠的情報，進而使各廠商在經營上同沾其利。由於國內的日常消費品產業仍以中小企業居多，以其有限的資金與人才，往往無法積極掌握商品銷售情報，進行管理資訊系統之維護與更新，也無法即時採用資訊與通訊之新科技，使得其經營效率偏低，並逐漸喪失其競爭力。因此，在不危及業者競爭核心的前提下，如能集合多數業者共享資訊，參考日本流通資訊服務中心（RDS）的作法，推廣情報共享觀念與共存共榮的經營理念，來建立共同銷售情報系統，並以此系統產生一些有用的整體性市場資訊的報告，提供給參與的業者做為其經營管理之參考，勢必對國內日常消費品產業的整體競爭力及經營效率的提昇，有極大的助益。有鑑於此，本研究以了解影響加入共同銷售情報系統的因素為探討的重心，並對共同銷售情報系統的運用情形及運用的成效進行探討與分析，希望藉由此研究，能夠找出加入共同銷售情報系統的誘因與其運作的可能機制，及對其成效進行評估，以做為工研院電通所在推廣共同銷售情報系統時的參考，並提高業者加入共同銷售情報系統的誘因，期能推廣情報共享及促進良性競爭的商業環境。 針對超市、超商及量販店業者進行問卷調查統計資料分析的結果，可歸納出影響業者加入共同銷售情報系統之意願具顯著正相關的因素包括：對同業合作的需求程度、和同業合作共享銷售資訊的意願、即時取得正確交易資訊、業者支持與提供正確資料、提供重要的報表種類數量、多數同業的加入以及相關成本的節省；而影響業者加入共同銷售情報系統之意願具顯著負相關的因素為可投入資訊系統的資金。而由訪談業者之意見可歸納出業者對於共同銷售情報系統的運用及其所重視的效益如下：1、對於共同合作機制之建立的看法方面，受訪業者普遍認為，共同銷售情報系統應由公法人來主導或推動較佳。2、對於策略性資訊系統的建構方面，受訪者普遍已建構類似的系統，主要是以公司內部資料的分析為主，不過可利用共同銷售情報系統產生的整體性資料來做標竿的比較。3、由於上、下游廠商間的互信基礎仍嫌不足，因此快速反應這樣的作法仍有待推廣，以提高供應鏈上多層次的附加價值。4、對於資訊科技的運用方面，受訪業者普遍有利用電子郵件、傳真及銷售時點情報系統來收集或傳遞資訊，同時也建構行銷資料庫來做商品的分析。而由於電子資料交換系統的建置成本太高，且政府有關單位的推廣不足，因此導致業者較少採用此一系統。由於受訪業者目前與共同銷售情報系統正式連接的時間還不夠長，且加入系統的業者也不夠多，因此，對於共同銷售情報系統所產生的效益仍不易用具體的數字來評估，是以本論文的效益評估以受訪業者分別對於財務面、行銷與顧客服務面、企業內部流程面及員工成長面所較重視的項目來衡量的。在財務面：受訪業者普遍較重視流通成本的削減、銷售量的增加、存貨的減少、存貨周轉率的提昇、獲利率的提升及產品市場佔有率的提升等方面；在行銷與顧客服務面：受訪業者普遍較重視服務水準及品質的提昇、缺貨率的下降、保有原有的顧客及提供合理化的價格；在企業內部流程面：受訪業者普遍較重視訂購循環的縮短、引入新的商品、開發出自有商品、能分析消費者的使用型態、能提供最佳產品組合、銷售商情的掌握與運用、能提昇銷售預測精確度、對上游廠商談判力的提昇及同業間合作或競爭關係的改變；在員工成長面：受訪業者普遍較重視員工能學習到最新的電腦作業系統以及分析資料的能力。 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………..1 第一節 研究背景……………………………………………………………………1 第二節 研究動機……………………………………………………………………2 第三節 研究目的……………………………………………………………………4 第四節 研究範圍……………………………………………………………………4 第五節 研究流程……………………………………………………………………5 第六節 章節架構……………………………………………………………………6 第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………..7 第一節 共同銷售情報系統…………………………………………………………7 第二節 資訊科技的運用………………………………………………………….32 第三章 研究方法…………………………………………………….61 第一節 研究架構………………………………………………………………..61 第二節 研究假設………………………………………………………………..64 第三節 研究變數操作性定義與衡量…………………………………………..69 第四節 問卷發展………………………………………………………………..77 第四章 資料分析…………………………………………………….80 第一節 回收樣本之基本資料分析……………………………………………….80 第二節 產業特性對加入共同銷售情報系統的意願之相關性分析…………….88 第三節 公司特性對加入共同銷售情報系統的意願之相關性分析…………….89 第四節 管理者特質對加入共同銷售情報系統的意願之相關性分析………….90 第五節 業者對於系統的認知程度對加入系統的意願之相關性分析………….91 第六節 本章總結………………………………………………………………….92 第五章 個案描述與分析…………………………………………….95 第一節 受訪業者基本資料分析…………………………………………………95 第二節 甲超商…………………………………………………………………..97 第三節 乙超市…………………………………………………………………..103 第四節 丙超市…………………………………………………………………..108 第五節 丁物流行銷公司………………………………………………………..113 第六節 工研院電通所…………………………………………………………..120 第七節 本章總結………………………………………………………………..128 第六章 結論與建議…………………………………………………135 第一節 研究結論………………………………………………………………..135 第二節 研究限制………………………………………………………………..139 第三節 後續研究建議…………………………………………………………..140 參考文獻…………………………………………………………….141 附錄一……………………………………………………………….150 附錄二……………………………………………………………….155 附錄三……………………………………………………………….159 / The scope of retailing industry covers foods , clothes , housing , transportation , education , and entertainment , etc.. Since it is closely related to our daily life , the demand of retailing industry will by no means grow when the income of people increases , the life style changes and the standard of living rises. In order to enhance the response to market , the retailers have to take some actions . Internally , evaluation system needs to be established based on observed data , and the operating process has to be standardized and formalized to ensure the service quality. In the marketing segment , retailers should consider both software and hardware to establish the image of the company and reinforce the competency of the company in order to gain more market share in the violent and complicated retailing market. And the most important of all is to monitor the information of sales. Once the information of the sales is monitored , managers can effectively control the levels of inventory , place order in more economic scale and meet the variety of demand. Therefore , it is indispensable to manage the company with computerized process and utilize the sales information system. Since the sales information is one of the focus of the marketing research , managers can fully understand and learn the reaction from consumers in the different products , prices , places and promotions strategies through the collection of sales information. And based on the sales information , producers , wholesalers and retailers can effectively make decisions about production , distribution , merchandise selection and selling. Since there are more and more chain stores of supermarkets , hypermarkets , and convenience stores arised , these modern retailing mode becomes the mainstream in the retailing market. It changes not only the purchasing behavior of the consumers , but also the business strategies and operation models of the producers in the supply chain. The consumer packaged goods industry is basically the conglomerate of the related industries which focus on selling of products. Thus , collecting the sales information through different channels , the firms in consumer packaged goods industry can actually help other firms in their supply chain to get more exact and reliable information , and also improve performance in both. In Taiwan , the domestic consumer packaged goods industry is composed mostly of small and median enterprises (SMEs). Due to limited money and manpower of SMEs , they are limited from aggressively accessing the sales information and maintaining and upgrading of the MIS. They are also incapable of catching the trend of the information technology and communication. And this will make the firms lose their competency . Therefore , if most of the firms of the consumer packaged goods industry would share the sales information without weakening their core competence , the Japanese Retailer Data Service (RDS) could be adapted as a good reference to promote the idea of sharing sales information and establish the common sales information system. The common sales information system will provide useful reports of the overall market information , and to the firms who join in this system as reference points for running their business. This system will also improve the competency and operation efficiency of the whole consumer packaged goods industry. According to the passage thereinbefore , this research tries to find the factors which will affect the firms to join in or not the common sales information system , and further explore and analyze the implementation situation and performance of the common sales information system. Hopefully , this research will be able to find the attractive factors for the firms to join the common sales information system , possible operating mechanism to run the system , and evaluation criteria . The results could also be referenced for the Computer and Communication Research Laboratories (CCL) of ITRI when they promote the common sales information system to attract more firms to join the system in order to promote the idea of sales information sharing and a good business environment for competition. Based on the outcome of the statistical analysis, some factors are strongly related to the willingness of retailers to join the common sales information system. These factors are as follows : the degree of needs to cooperate with counterparts, the will of sharing the sales information with counterparts , real time information acquiring, the firms' supporting and the collected data providing , the important report providing , most counterparts' participating , saving on the related costs. All of the above factors are positively related to the willingness of the firms to join the common sales information system ; But , the budget on investing the information system is negatively related to the willingness of the firms to join the common sales information system. Based on the interviews with the participating firms , the applications and the possible benefits coming from the common sales information system can be summarized as follows : 1. On the viewpoint of establishing the cooperative mechanism , most of the respondents think that the common sales information system should be directed or promoted by the public legal sectors. 2. On the viewpoint of establishing the strategic information system , most of the respondents have built up this system but now mainly use it to analyze the internally produced data which they believed can be compared with the overall market information produced by the common sales information system. 3. Due to lack of mutual trust among the different tiers of supply chain , the concepts and applications of QR/ECR should be continually promoted to provide more added values for the supply chain. 4. From the applications of information technology , most of the respondents gather or transfer information by using e-mail , fax and point of sale（POS）system . They also develop marketing database to analyze the sales. Since the time that the firms joined the common sales information system is not long enough and there are only limited firms joined this system , performance produced by the common sales information system are difficult to be evaluated concretely. So the performance of the system at this stage is only based on the importance perceived by the respondents on the dimensions such as financial performance , marketing and customer service , business internal process , and the growth of staff. On the dimension of financial performance , most of the respondents emphasize more on the reduction of the logistics cost , the increase of the sales , the reduction in the inventory , the increase of the turnover rate , the increase of the profitability and the increase of the market share；on the dimension of marketing and customer service , most of the respondents emphasize more on the improvement of the level of service and quality , the reduction of the shortage rate , keeping the original customers and providing the reasonable price；on the dimension of business internal process , most of the respondents emphasize more on the reduction of the order cycle , introduction of the new products , development of the products with its own brand , the ability to analyze customers' patterns, providing the best mix of the products , monitoring and utilizing the sales information , improving the accuracy of sales forecast , increasing the bargaining power to the suppliers , and the change on the cooperation or competition relationship among the counterparts；on the dimension of staff's growth , most of the respondents emphasize more on that the staff can learn more the latest computer related operation and the ability to analyze the information.