In this paper, we find evidence that the mutual fund flows could be a good measure of investor sentiment, and inventors in Taiwan have independent sentiments about domestic and foreign markets. We further construct a sentiment index by principle component analysis, and show that investor sentiment measured by fund flows has no significant impact, although the sign is positive as expected, on concurrent market return. The results also suggest different sentiments embedded in mutual fund flows and stock market in Taiwan.

近來許多學者指出股票市場不如效率市場假說所述，反而存在低風險異常報酬之現象，而Frazzini and Pedersen (2014)提出貝他套利交易策略，藉由該策略可增加獲取之超額報酬。故本研究將探討低風險異常報酬是否仍存於近年的美國股票市場，另外，亦將加入投資人情緒及流動性指標，研究其是否能改良貝他套利交易策略。實證結果顯示，低風險異常報酬仍然存在於美國股票市場，且執行貝他套利交易策略可增加所獲取之超額報酬。此外，於該策略加入成交量變動率及成交量，分別作為情緒及流動性指標後，發現兩種方式皆能改良貝他套利交易策略之獲利，其中又以加入流動性指標能獲取較多報酬，然而上述兩種策略於2007年至2008年金融危機時，皆無法有效提高貝他套利交易策略的獲利。

We examine how investor sentiment affects the changes in implied volatility, and discover investor sentiment has impact on the size of the changes in implied volatility through returns, especially when returns are negative. We examine the short-tern relation between the S&P 500 index returns and the changes of VIX from January 1990 to January 2011, and between the NASDAQ-100 index returns and the changes of VXN from February 2001 to January 2011 with proxy for beginning-of-period investor sentiment at both the daily and weekly level. We find that during high sentiment periods, the negative and asymmetric relation of return to changes in implied volatility can be mitigated significantly. When returns are segregated into positive and negative returns, investor sentiment has different impact on the size of changes in implied volatility. In negative returns, investors are more panic than in positive returns, but the panic can be mitigated significantly when investors are in high sentiment. Thus, sentiment can alter the risk attitude of investors and reduce their panic in the future, especially when market has negative performance.

隨著金融市場的全球化，自一九〇〇年代起各國進行跨國上市的企業逐年增長，而該現象也引起學者對於可能造成跨國上市之因與其中之利弊進行進一步的思考與研究，從而發展出許多假說與相關實證結果。過去的傳統假說以市場分割假說、流動性假說以及投資人認知假說等對跨國上市進行解釋，且多以各國至美國跨國上市作為實證，由於上述假說經實證仍留有無法解釋的部分，進而發展出綁定假說，但無論是傳統或是新興的理論，都留有空間讓我們透過全新的角度去賦予見解，因此本論文期以透過行為財務學的觀點，以投資人情緒來解讀公司進行跨國上市的決策制定。 不同於以往，我們以美國作為實證，檢視全球投資人情緒對於美國公司至全球進行跨國上市決策是否有所影響，樣本期間取自二〇〇三年至二〇一四年，完整樣本數共4,955家企業進行跨國上市，而透過參考文獻我們在考量了公司、交易所與國家三個層級的控制變數後進行相關實證。 實證結果顯示全球投資人情緒確實影響公司進行跨國上市的決策，當全球投資人情緒越高漲，公司進行跨國上市的可能性則提高，而反之亦然。本論文提供已經過長時間假說與實證的跨國上市領域一個新的思考方向，全球投資人情緒的波動將會是一個影響企業至海外進行權益融資的指標之一。 / With the globalization of financial markets, boundaries between countries are getting vague. Since the 〖20〗^(th) century, the amount of firms having their stocks cross-listed oversea is increasing each year, hypotheses and empirical test have long been formed and conducted to figure out the cause and effect of such phenomenon. As for the conventional wisdom, market segmentation, liquidity and investor recognition hypotheses are constructed but still left puzzle unexplained. Bonding theory then been brought up after. But no matter how the conventional wisdom or new research initiatives are trying to interpret, behavioral finance can always bring up a brand new aspect and a whole new explanation. Our paper use global sentiment as a determinant to demonstrate the cross-listing decision-making of a firm. Firms in the United States are using as our samples to test our hypothesis, which is expressed that the higher the global sentiment is, the more possible that a firm would have its stock cross-listed. Our sample period is from 2003 to 2014 and the amount of firms cross-listed in the sample period is 4,955. Familiar with the previous studies we have our control variables divided into three levels, firm, exchange and country. The empirical result indicates that while the sentiment of the globe is high, firms in the United States have the intention to have their stock cross-listed oversea, and vice versa. Our main contribution of this study is that though research in cross-listing has long been studied, we provide a new viewpoint that we confirm the connection between global sentiment and cross-listing decision of financing.

本研究採2003年12月至2010年6月上市上櫃公司為研究樣本，檢驗當期投資人情緒、公司治理、及動能投資策略對下期股價獲利的影響，與先前研究不同之處在於，投資人情緒使用世新大學投資人情緒資料庫所提供之「投資人情緒指數」。實證結果為: 1、當期投資人情緒悲觀會使得當期股價低估，而使下期股價向上修正時有較高的報酬率。 2、公司治理佳的股票報酬率顯著大於公司治理劣的股票報酬率。 3、過去股價報酬率較高者未來也有較高的獲利，反之則較低。 4、投資人情緒相較於公司治理及動能策略而言，為主要的影響股價的因素。 5、金融海嘯時，投資人情緒悲觀仍使下期股價有較高的報酬率，但公司治理劣者報酬率顯著大於公司治理佳者。

本研究主要探討投資人的積極程度以及市場的樂觀程度是否會影響動能策略之獲利能力。本研究利用1973至2013年間美國個股進行實證研究，結果驗證了動能策略於樣本期間能有顯著的獲利。進一步的實證結果顯示，規模較小且交易量成長率較低的公司存在極短期(一個月內)反轉的現象。此外，在市場樂觀期間(較多的首次公開發行的公司家數、較高的消費者信心指數或較低的恐慌指數)動能策略之獲利能力較佳且顯著。因此，我們建議投資人能在市場樂觀期間對規模較小的公司進行動能策略，將可得到較高的預期超額報酬。 / The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether the activism of investors and the sentiment of the market can affect the profitability of the momentum strategy. Using individual firms during 1973 to 2013 as the sample, this study reexamines and confirms the profitability of the momentum strategy. The further empirical result shows that firms with smaller size and lower growth rate of trading volume exhibit a very short-term (within one month) reversal effect. In addition, during the optimistic period (years which have more firms conducting initial public offerings, higher consumer confidence index, or lower VIX), the profitability of the momentum strategy is significantly higher than that during the passive period. Therefore, a suggested trading strategy applying momentum strategy to small firms during the high sentiment period may yield a superior performance.

本文主要目的在探討當天氣（雲量及氣溫）、日照小時數以及會影響人們生理週期（如睡眠型態的改變）的日光節約制等外在環境因素引發投資人情緒變化時，是否會影響各國投資人對公司會計盈餘宣告資訊之解讀與反應，且是否會因為公司盈餘宣告所傳遞的為好消息或壞消息而不同。此外，本文亦進一步檢視在不同國家層級的機制背景所塑造出的不同資訊環境（例如財務透明度高低以及成文法系或不成文法系）下，上述氣候效應是否存在差異性。 / 由於心理學文獻指出，一些外在環境因素會引發投資人的情緒反應，而投資人情緒又會影響其對資訊的處理過程以及風險趨避程度，另一方面，行為財務學文獻則指出投資人情緒會影響其對公司資訊之解讀，因此本文以跨洲及跨緯度共25國於1990年至2006年間共169,177筆的公司季盈餘宣告為樣本分析此現象。整體而言，本研究發現氣候等外在環境因素所引發的投資人情緒確實會影響其對公司盈餘宣告資訊之解讀；且當公司盈餘宣告傳遞的為好消息時，投資人因雲量較少、氣溫較低、日照小時數較長或未受到日光節約制影響而心情比較好時，會促使對未來較為樂觀且對資訊的處理較為隨意，故對於好消息的反應更為正面，但若處於較差的心情時，則對未來比較悲觀且處理資訊相對嚴謹，因此會比較保守地看待好消息而減少原本對好消息應有的正向反應。相對地，上述外在環境因素對公司盈餘宣告壞消息的影響則相反。 / 最後，由於本研究未發現任何外在環境因素所引發的投資人情緒對公司盈餘宣告資訊的反應存在明顯的緯度或地區等地理上的趨勢，因而嘗試由制度環境面加以解釋上述現象，亦即探討資訊環境的完善度是否會影響氣候效應的差異性。本文發現當國家層級的法律制度等機制背景使得其股市發展程度較高且財務資訊較多較可靠時，投資人更能透過公司的資訊揭露取得瞭解公司經營狀況的真實資訊，其所要考量的投資決策之複雜性、風險及未來不確定性確實較低，因此資訊環境較完善（高財務透明度或為不成文法系）的國家，其投資人對公司盈餘資訊宣告的反應受氣候等相關因素影響之程度較小。

本研究旨在探討投資人情緒與月營收資訊是否能夠解釋台灣股票報酬，以及投資人情緒是否影響對於月營收資訊的解讀。實證結果發現，前期月營收資訊、前期投資人情緒以及兩者乘積對當期股票報酬有顯著的正向影響。表示月營收資訊的揭露能帶給投資人資訊，作為交易時的考量，而前期投資人情緒能夠部分解釋當期股票報酬。兩者乘積表示營收資訊和投資人情緒為同期時，投資人對於資訊的解讀會受到情緒影響，進而影響股票的報酬。進一步探討，當投資人面對月營收成長率高、月營收波動低時，對於其月營收資訊的解讀傾向伴隨著情緒。 / This study wants to discuss whether sales information and investor sentiment could explain Taiwan stock market and whether investor sentiment affects their interpretation on sales information. The empirical results show that the sales information last period, investor sentiment last period and the multiplication of these two are significantly positively correlated to current stock returns. It indicates that the sales disclosure is informative to investors as a consideration while trading and investor sentiment can partially explain the stock returns. The estimate of multiplication which is positive indicates that when sales information and investor sentiment are in the same period, investors’ interpretation on sales information would be affected by their sentiment, and further affecting the stock returns. We further find that when companies have the characteristics of high sales growth rate and low sales volatility, their sales information tends to be interpreted by investors emotionally.

本研究旨在探討投資人情緒是否影響到分析師的報導決策，以及分析師發佈預測和推薦時是否會注意到投資人情緒，亦即當投資人情緒較樂觀時，分析師是否會發佈較長期的預測以及較有利的股票推薦。本文以中央大學台灣經濟研究中心所編制之消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒的替代變數。研究結果與本文預期相符，當投資人情緒較高昂時，分析師會發佈較長期之盈餘預測以及較有利之推薦評等；同時也發現當投資人情緒上升，分析師之推薦評等亦向上修正。顯示分析師雖為專精且較為理性之投資人，然其行為仍受到消費者信心所影響。 / This study investigates the relation between investor sentiment and analysts' coverage decisions. Secondly, we also examine whether analysts who pay attention to investor sentiment issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and more favorable stock recommendations during high-sentiment periods. We use the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey from the National Central University to measure sentiment. We find that analysts tend to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and favorable stock recommendations when investor sentiment is more optimistic. Moreover, analysts tend to revise upward their stock recommendations during investor sentiment raise period. Taken together, these findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment even though they are more rational investors.

本文旨在探討投資人情緒與法人說明會之關聯性，即公司如何經由召開法人說明會，策略性地回應投資人情緒反應，以企圖影響情緒所導致的預期偏差。實證發現：管理當局策略性地改變其自願性揭露政策，以反映投資人情緒。當投資人情緒愈低落時，公司將傾向於召開法人說明會，且公司召開法人說明會之頻率亦會增加。相反的，當投資人情緒高昂時，公司則愈不會召開法人說明會。再者，當投資人情緒愈低落時，法人說明會所揭露之公司資訊將愈樂觀。此研究亦顯示公司自願性揭露政策的選擇，反映管理當局渴望維持樂觀之評價。 / In this paper we explore the association between investor sentiment and the likelihood of holding conference calls. In other words, this paper investigates how firms react strategically to investor sentiment via their conference calls in an attempt to influence the sentiment-induced biases in expectations. We show that managers strategically vary their voluntary disclosure policies in response to prevailing sentiment. We find that during low-sentiment periods, the firms are more likely to conduct conference calls and conduct them more frequently; while during periods of high sentiment they decrease the frequency of conference calls. In addition, during low-sentiment periods, the conference calls disclose more optimistic information. Overall, this study provides evidence that company’s voluntary disclosure choices reflect managers desire to maintain optimistic valuations.