Sea-level rise is a concern for the future of coastal marsh obligate species such as the Clapper Rail (Rallus crepitans). Clapper Rails possess the potential to indicate changes to marsh ecological state due to population variation related to habitat features exhibited in previous study. Estimates for Clapper Rail survival are among the key missing parameters to create predictive models for Clapper Rail populations. I estimated Clapper Rail survival using data collected from six automated telemetry towers located in two Mississippi marshes. Thirty adult rails were harnessed with radio transmitters around telemetry towers to provide evidence of a rail’s status, alive or dead. Using survival estimates in conjunction with existing empirical data, I created an individual-based model that incorporated existing Sea-level Affecting Marsh Models, which predict changing land cover. These models showed that Clapper Rails will likely persist, though at decreased populations, through changes in habitat due to sea-level rise.

A rising sea level threatens historic buildings and towns that tie together the collective identity of a community, but because the disaster is often prolonged and the loss occurs all around us, the current model for memorials will not accommodate the grief the future holds. Memorials are meant to aid in remembering and often point to a specific event or place where a historic event happened. If the loss is ongoing and happening everywhere, the memorial will need to adapt and address more universal concepts to be inclusive. A memorial can no longer simply point to a moment in the past. They must help educate about important issues and experiences that impact daily life. Future memorials need to address diverse narratives and complex histories to remain relevant when cultural values shift. There is an architectural opportunity to reflect on more universal experiences that are on-going and affect everyone, but these memorials need to operate at a local level to make big issues, like climate change, more digestible. By focusing on one symptom, like sea level rise, and using a specific instance of loss as the backdrop, visitors can experience the profound impact of climate change firsthand. The Historic Point Lookout Lighthouse will become the site for a new theoretical tidal park and climate change memorial. It will memorialize what has been lost to rising sea levels and heighten visitors' awareness of their own relationships to water. The design will present the dynamics of water in the short term, mid term, and long term to make the subtle changes of rising sea levels evident. The site will transform over the course of the day with tidal action, over the years with material weathering, and over the decades with sea level rise. Locals will have a place to return to as the surrounding area is swallowed by the bay and they are forced to relocate. The building itself will act as a metaphorical anchor and storytelling device, marking the place that experienced a historical and cultural erasure because of rising sea levels. As the building changes and transforms with the landscape, it will become embedded in the collective identity of the Bay and the memories of its visitors. / Master of Architecture / A rising sea level threatens historic buildings and towns that tie together the collective identity of a community, but because the disaster is often prolonged and the loss occurs all around us, the current model for memorials will not accommodate the grief the future holds. Memorials are meant to aid in remembering and often point to a specific event or place where a historic event happened. If the loss is ongoing and happening everywhere, the memorial will need to adapt and address more universal concepts to be inclusive. A memorial can no longer simply point to a moment in the past. They must help educate about important issues and experiences that impact daily life. Future memorials need to address diverse narratives and complex histories to remain relevant when cultural values shift. There is an architectural opportunity to reflect on more universal experiences that are on-going and affect everyone, but these memorials need to operate at a local level to make big issues, like climate change, more digestible. By focusing on one symptom, like sea level rise, and using a specific instance of loss as the backdrop, visitors can experience the profound impact of climate change firsthand. The Historic Point Lookout Lighthouse will become the site for a new theoretical tidal park and climate change memorial. It will memorialize what has been lost to rising sea levels and heighten visitors' awareness of their own relationships to water. The design will present the dynamics of water in the short term, mid term, and long term to make the subtle changes of rising sea levels evident. The site will transform over the course of the day with tidal action, over the years with material weathering, and over the decades with sea level rise. Locals will have a place to return to as the surrounding area is swallowed by the bay and they are forced to relocate. The building itself will act as a metaphorical anchor and storytelling device, marking the place that experienced a historical and cultural erasure because of rising sea levels. As the building changes and transforms with the landscape, it will become embedded in the collective identity of the Bay and the memories of its visitors.

How many inhabitans do have your city? Tuvalu has 12.000 and that´s not a city. It´s a country. Nine islands in south Pacific nearly date line. On first sight You may say, it´s a paradise. Air has always about 30°, sand is white, sky is blue and the sea is full of fish. On shore grows coconuts and on the sea-floor grows beautiful corals. But second lowest country in the Word cannot be a paradise. The land is missing in huge Pacific. Inhabitans don´t have money neither for build another Venice nor dubai´s palm. Global warming a sea level rise is dangerous for milions people of our planet. Maldives, Banghlades, Holland, south of USA… Many of you can have a question: „Why then Tuvalu?“ Few tausends people can move to Australia and finish. And Maldives have worse position, land has less meters over sea level, people is more… ten times. But 12.000… it´s so enough – for specimen. It´s enough people to get for them money and spend it for saving thein land, for trying some science theories. If cannot save these 12.000, you cannot save the others. They have many renewable resourcies: the wind is blowing, the sun is shining, the water is flowing. In this time they are maybe not energy-independent, but they plan to be in 2020. Energy is that wonderfull power, which can save them. Did you know, that if you set low electric energy going in iron element under sea level (which cannot harm sea life and people), at the surface is formed a layer of sediments called „biorock“?- rock, which can you use for building. The project will save only one atoll: Funafuti. It´s enough large for all contemporary and future inhabitans to living. Project is planned to year 2200 and calculated for 24.000 inhabitans. Untilll then sea level rise will grow about one meter above. On atoll Funafuti will rise eight villages with max. 3.000 inhabitans. Every village will have by average equipment (grocery, school, doctor, church) advanced nation-wide important functions (airport, hospital, parliament, university..). On biorock layer stored up in the sea by atoll Funafuti will rise shelf, where people can build stilt houses, how they did houndreds years before European arrival. Or they can live in houseboats. Between houses they wil build jetty road for light engine vehicles and bridge-like paths for pedestrians. They will meet on squares and over their heads will bloom tropical plant in colourfull steeltubes made for it. On the dry land, which is very small, will grow coconut and pandanus. This land will be under heritage, park for everyone to come end enjoy. Part of this project is a floating church. Its building represents all ideas, that Project Tuvalu has: building on water, energy-independent, offer an shelter, shade and place for meeting of people. White facade made from textile membrane reminds white sails of ships, that crossed oceans before 200 years. With these ships came Chrisitanity, that is deeply rooted in this land. Bamboo construction with steel cables will reminds to people Crown of Thorns and martyrium of Christ, but also average problem hat must people meet in their lives. This project is pure utopic and doesn´t have ambition to get real. Its aim is to make visible problem of global warming in this sight and create a discussion: what next?

The purpose of this study is to investigate and express the embodied potential of the architectural profession, as an influential actor against global climate change. The study investigates and proposes a hybrid floating intervention that helps adapt to sea-level rise and in length helps counterbalance the carbon emissions connected to fossil fuel consumption. The paper is divided in 3 parts. Part 1 outlines the understanding of three terms ‘infrastructure’, ‘landscape’, and ‘architecture’, and questions whether these distinctions are reasonable and beneficial for designers, or if we should instead focus on the intersections of these divisions. A dynamic discipline must be studied at its borders while yet being conserved at its center. Such crossings become especially important in large-scale projects. Part 2 outlines the concept of Aquatecture, a typology, water, and architectural design that can unify to produce dynamic and positive sea-level rise mitigation solutions. The article is devoted to the investigation of aquatecture’s key components, providing autonomous functioning of a floating structure as an artificial close-loop ecosystem. An architectural ecosystem is subdivided into four main functions: extraction of resources and water, energy production, waste disposal, and automated systems. Part 3 outlines the historic past, present, and future of Malmo and reflects on the role of the architects in today’s society and global conditions. Furthermore, it consists of a hybrid architectural proposal floating on the aquatic medium, ultimately answering the United Nations' global call against climate change, with sequestrating action. Most importantly the project proposes a new paradigm to alter climate change.

Millions of people in low-lying areas are already affected by flooding, and the number will increase substantially in the future. Tidal flooding, the form of flooding caused by a combination of high tides and sea level rise to overcome protection levels, can cause damage and inconveniences such as road closures, overwhelmed drainage systems, and infrastructure deterioration from water damage. Tidal flooding already occurs annually in cities along the U.S. east coast, most notably Miami. However, the time it will take for other regions globally to begin to experience tidal flooding has not yet been assessed. Therefore, there is a limited understanding of how and when human populations will be exposed to this type of flooding. Tide gauge data from the GESLA-2 data base are used to obtain information about the highest astronomical tide (HAT) and extreme value statistics for 571 locations globally. For a complete spatial analysis, modelled water levels from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) are also used. Estimated protection levels are extracted from the DIVA database and translated to absolute heights based on the extreme value statistics of high water levels. This analysis is based on calculating the difference between the existing protection level and HAT, which indicates how much sea levels can rise before tidal flooding occurs, and evaluating in what decade this is expected to happen under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Tidal trends from the nodal and perigean are also taken account and used to modify 1000 different sea level rise scenarios to provide a more comprehensive analysis of possible tidal flooding years. Our results indicate that tidal flooding may occur within a few decades in many locations (under the assumption that no adaptation will take place), and therefore awareness should be heightened so that actions can be taken to minimize the impacts.

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances drive change in ecosystems, especially highly disturbed coastal systems, which are at the interface between the land and the sea and contain both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. This transitional zone is at the forefront of climate change. As sea level rises, disturbance regimes are expected to change. Simultaneously, the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events, such as hurricanes, may increase, along with increases in fire intensity and severity in certain regions. Historically, fire was a natural disturbance along the northern Gulf of Mexico where lightning frequency is high; however, today fire along the Gulf is often anthropogenic in origin (i.e., prescribed fire). As disturbance regimes change, the interaction between hurricanes and fire is likely to become increasingly prevalent, since increased production of dead debris from more intense hurricanes is likely to serve as additional fuel material for fires. Sea level rise may also act synergistically with the typical pulse disturbances coastal ecosystems face, including hurricanes and fire. This combination of acute and chronic stressors may prevent coastal ecosystems from recovering and returning to their pre-disturbance state if layered legacies of these events decrease ecosystem stability and resilience. The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of layered legacies of disturbances on community composition, species distributions, extent of coastal zones (e.g., salt marsh, fresh marsh, forest) and vegetation vigor in coastal communities over a 17-year period (2004 to 2021) in coastal Alabama to explore the resilience of coastal systems and their persistence in the face of sea level rise. A combination of ground-collected data from 2004, 2011 and 2021, and fine resolution satellite images taken every other year from 2006-2019 were analyzed. Disturbances altered community composition between 2004 and 2021, which coincided with expansion of salt marsh and fresh marsh species distributions at lower elevations, and declines in woody species in the scrub-shrub ecotone and forest at higher elevations. The scrub-shrub ecotone disappeared, and the forest began to deteriorate, while the extent of the fresh marsh increased. Additionally, vegetation vigor (as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) was calculated from moderate resolution Landsat images within one month prior to and following each extreme storm event from 2004-2020. NDVI decreased after some extreme storm events but increased after others, and there was an overall increase in NDVI over the last five years of the study period. This study was conducted at a critical time; coastal systems are facing an increasing amount of chronic stress from sea level rise, in addition to more immediate stress from pulse disturbances. Despite these stressors, coastal systems along the northern Gulf of Mexico appear to be more resilient than previously realized because upslope migration of species is evident. Extreme storm events and fires appear to contribute to, and even promote, the persistence of coastal wetlands in the face of sea level rise. However, persistence of coastal wetlands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast may be prevented in areas dominated by upslope barriers to migration (i.e., current/future urban development and levees), such as in Louisiana.

This thesis examines the relationships between rising water levels, vulnerable land, and sedimentation within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Climate induced sea level rise threatens low lying coastal land, especially in regions of continuing subsidence such as the Chesapeake Bay. Alterations to shorelines over time have impacted the ability of coastal landscapes to capture and build up sediment, exposing them to continual erosion. The low lying neighborhood of Belle View along the Potomac River is the focus of the investigation due to its vulnerability to flooding and its cultural and ecological connections to the adjacent landscapes of Dyke Marsh and the George Washington Memorial Parkway. Through careful placement of breakwater infrastructure, sediment will build over time as the water rises, mitigating the effects of coastal flooding in this region. Alterations to the landscapes of the marsh and parkway allow for their cultural and recreational values to be strengthened over time as the landscape adjusts to the rising sea level. / Master of Landscape Architecture / Climate change, or the belief that human activity is altering the earth's climate, is projected to increase the occurrence of flood events due to water levels rising over time from glaciers melting. Previously, shorelines have been hardened with levee or seawall infrastructure to creates a barrier between the water and developed land. Hardened shorelines may increase water velocity and reflect wave energy in riverine landscapes, consequentially disturbing natural shorelines. This disturbance leads to the gradual loss of sediment over time and therefore a loss of ground elevation. When landscapes lose elevation, they become more vulnerable to rising water levels and flooding. This relationships between shoreline types, sedimentation, rising water, and vulnerability inspired me to discover and design a threatened landscape that would capture sediment within the river's water column to build elevation over time and protect the adjacent development from rising water. The area encompassing the low lying neighborhood of Belle View, Dyke Marsh, and the George Washington Memorial Parkway along the Potomac River is the focus of the investigation due to its vulnerability to flooding. With a careful understanding of sediment capture infrastructure dynamics, the design introduces breakwaters on the site to allow sediment to build over time as the water rises. This research and design thesis demonstrates a strategy to create landscapes that will evolve over time to mitigate future flooding events and create more resilient landscapes.

Reliable and robust methods of extreme value based hurricane surge prediction, such as the Joint Probability Method (JPM), are critical in the coastal engineering profession. The JPM has become the preferred surge hazard assessment method in the United States; however, it has a high computational cost: one location can require hundreds of simulated storms, and more than ten thousand computational hours to complete. Optimal sampling methods that use physics based surge response functions (SRFs), can reduce the required number of simulations. This study extends the development of SRFs to bay interior locations at Panama City, Florida. Mean SRF root-mean-square (RMS) errors for open coast and bay interior locations were 0.34 m and 0.37 m, respectively; comparable to expected ADCIRC model errors (~0.3 m—0.5 m). Average uncertainty increases from open coast and bay SRFs were 10% and 12%, respectively. Long-term climate trends, such as rising sea levels, introduce nonstationarity into the simulated and historical surge datasets. A common approach to estimating total flood elevations is to take the sum of projected sea-level rise (SLR) and present day surge (static approach); however, this does not account for dynamic SLR effects on surge generation. This study demonstrates that SLR has a significant dynamic effect on surge in the Panama City area, and that total flood elevations, with respect to changes in SLR, are poorly characterized as static increases. A simple adjustment relating total flood elevation to present day conditions is proposed. Uncertainty contributions from these SLR adjustments are shown to be reasonable for surge hazard assessments. / Master of Science

Coastal flood impacts are increasing in severity with the rising sea levels, causing damage to ecological and human systems. Climate-hazards may also result in cascading impacts, where an initial disaster sets off a chain of events that extends beyond the initial spatiotemporal point of impact. Coastal flood events may result in consecutive disasters in which the initial flood event results in a secondary technological disaster, prompting disruptions to socio-economic systems and resulting in a public health crisis. Flood events that trigger technological emergencies through the inundation and dispersion of hazardous materials are known as Natech disasters. However, current research on the cascading impacts of Natech events is limited. Hampton Roads, Virginia, is experiencing an accelerated rate of sea level rise and a proportionally higher risk of storm surge, potentially leading to a greater risk of Natech disasters. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Natech events on surrounding communities in Hampton Roads. This study uses geospatial analysis to identify the current (2021) and future (2051) threats of flood-induced Natech disaster and assess its exposure to different coastal populations and ecosystems. The present study calculated the Flood Hazard Density Index (FHDI), using a 1-mile radius around the significantly flooded facilities to determine the spatial dispersion of Natech disasters. The flood risks were determined using the 100-year flood plain and intermediate (RCP 4.5) climate scenario. The risk of a Natech disaster was identified by combining the spatial extent of flood risk with the location of Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and National Priorities List (NPL) designated Superfund sites. The exposed environmental and social systems to Natech events were chosen through the literature gap analysis. Sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey were collected to examine its correlation with 2021 and 2051 FHDI-affected block groups. Findings reveal that block groups with higher proportions of minorities, people in poverty, and people without a vehicle experience significant exposure to a Natech disaster compared to those who are living further away from the TRI and Superfund facilities. Additionally, open water and wetland environments will also experience significant exposure to Natech events, which could indicate a loss of ecosystem services. This study suggests a need for proactive policy and programmatic interventions to minimize the potential impacts of Natech events on the surrounding communities, such as the remediation of Superfund sites and the development of hazard mitigation plans for TRI facilities. / Master of Science / Coastal flood impacts are increasing in severity with the rising sea levels, causing damage to ecological and human systems. Climate-hazards may also result in cascading impacts, where an initial disaster sets off a chain of events that extends beyond the initial spatial origin of impact, prolonging the effects of the initial disaster. Coastal flood events may result in consecutive disasters, where an initial flood event results in a secondary technological disaster, prompting disruptions to socio-economic systems and resulting in a public health crisis. Flood events that trigger technological emergencies causing the inundation and dispersion of hazardous materials are known as Natech disasters. However, current research on the cascading impacts of Natech events is limited. Hampton Roads, Virginia, is experiencing accelerated sea level rise and a proportionally higher risk of storm surge, potentially leading to a greater risk of Natech disasters. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Natech events on surrounding communities in Hampton Roads. This study uses geospatial analysis to identify the current (2021) and future (2051) threats of flood-induced Natech disaster and assess its exposure to different coastal populations and ecosystems. The present study used a 1-mile radius around the significantly flooded facilities to determine the spatial dispersion of Natech diasters. The flood risks were determined using the 1 in 100 annual flood risk and an intermediate climate projection. The risk of a Natech disaster was identified by combining the spatial extent of flood risk with the location of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) regulated Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and National Priorities List (NPL) designated Superfund sites. The most susceptible social, economic, and environmental subsystems to Natech events were identified using a literature gap analysis. Sociodemographic data were collected from the American Community Survey to examine its relationship to the 2021 and 2051 Natech affected census block groups. Findings reveal that block groups with higher proportions of minorities, people in poverty, and people without a vehicle experience significant exposure to a Natech disaster compared to those who are living further away from the TRI and Superfund facilities. Additionally, open water and wetland environments will also experience significant exposure to Natech events, which may indicate a loss of ecosystem services. This study suggests a need for proactive policy and programmatic interventions to minimize the potential impacts of Natech events on the surrounding communities, such as the remediation of Superfund sites and the development of hazard mitigation plans for TRI facilities.

Coastal zones are hotspots of global environmental changes. Worldwide, coastal environments face multiple, interactive stressors caused by both natural and anthropogenic impacts on climatic, oceanographic, ecological, and socio-economic processes such as sea level rise, storm surges, hurricanes, land subsidence, and population growth. The coastal U.S. is highly vulnerable to many of these climate and human-induced stressors. Over the past three decades, sea levels have risen by about 0.1 m along the U.S. coasts, with an additional projected increase of 0.2 to 0.3 m by 2050, and up to 2.0 m by the end of the century. The rise in sea levels will cause tides and storm surges to reach further inland, significantly altering flood regimes in coastal cities. By 2050, potentially damaging coastal flooding is expected to occur ten times as often compared to a baseline for the start of the 21st century. Moreover, these changes along the U.S. coastlines vary regionally and locally due to either positive or negative changes in land elevation over time (i.e., vertical land motion (VLM)). Lowering of land elevation (i.e., land subsidence) exacerbates sea level rise and the risk of inundation along coastal zones, presenting significant security challenges to coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and populations. These dynamic and interacting stressors necessitate continuous monitoring to inform effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Earth observation data allows for accurate, high-resolution, and continuous measurements of changing coastline. Despite the increasing availability of Earth observation data, current methods for monitoring VLM along coastlines lack the necessary spatial resolution and continuous coverage to accurately assess localized surface elevation changes. In this dissertation, I introduce a framework to jointly invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) data to provide semi-continuous measurement (50 m spatial resolution) of VLM for the contiguous U.S. coasts from 2007 – 2020. Combining the VLM dataset with projected sea level rise using different scenarios, I estimate flood hazards exposure for 32 major U.S. coastal cities by 2050, demonstrating that current measurements and frameworks underestimate flood vulnerability in several cities by not accounting for local and regional high-resolution VLM data. Next, I evaluate the possible drivers of land subsidence, exploring the relationship between spatio-temporal dynamic VLM and groundwater withdrawal from aquifers in major U.S. cities. Additionally, I assess the hazards and risks of land subsidence to infrastructure and wetlands along U.S. coasts. Finally, I extend this analysis beyond the U.S. coastline, investigating how land subsidence is linked to the incessant occurrence of building collapses in Lagos, Africa's most populous coastal city. / Doctor of Philosophy / Coastal areas worldwide are under significant stress from both natural and human-made changes, including rising sea levels, flooding, storms, hurricanes, land sinking, and population growth. The U.S. coasts are particularly affected by these issues. Sea levels have risen significantly over the past few years, with further increases expected in the near future. As sea levels rise, tides and storm patterns will change; thereby altering the flood frequency and magnitude in coastal cities. Land sinking exacerbates the impact of sea-level rise and flooding, affecting people, buildings, and the natural environment in coastal cities. These factors change over time, so they must be constantly monitored to develop effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation. Here, I used satellite-based tools to monitor land changes over time, identifying areas where the land is sinking. I combined this information of where land is sinking with sea-level rise data to estimate the areas that will be vulnerable to flooding by 2050 in 32 U.S. coastal cities, including Boston (MA), New York (NY), Virginia Beach (VA), Charleston (SC), Miami (FL), New Orleans (LA), Galveston (TX), and San Diego (CA). I also examined the causes of land sinking, particularly how groundwater extraction can lead to land sinking and the risks this poses to buildings and the natural environment along the U.S. coasts. This research highlights the impact of climate change and human activities on the U.S. coasts and the importance of continuous monitoring to enhance coastal resilience against current and future challenges.