In response to recent storms like Superstorm Sandy and sea-level rise influenced by climate change, cities, particularly those located at the coast, have taken initiative to combat these growing threats with adaptive urban planning. Although civilians residing in susceptible neighborhoods are often the most vulnerable socioeconomically, there has been minimal evidence that planning has accounted for the characteristics of vulnerability. This thesis evaluates the recent planning efforts and vulnerability of Norfolk, VA and New York City to gauge the progress being made toward reducing citizen vulnerability and raising adaptability and preparedness. The most recent peer-reviewed research is consulted to forge the evaluation framework and also to recognize breakthroughs and conformity. After analyzing the performance of the sets of planning documents in both cities, it is evident that the ability to effectively plan for the public’s vulnerability is contingent in part on inter-governmental capacity, but more specifically on disaster experience.

According to the IPCC sea levels can rise by up to one meter in the next century and maybe even more depending on both individual lifestyle choices and policy making on a societal level. An episode from the Swedish Rafio P3's podcast series, P3 Dystopia, has been investigated as a communication effort to spread knoowledge about the climate issue and its consequences. The episode chosen for this study deals with the sea level rise and its threat on civilizations across the globe. The podcast is part of the Swedish public serive campaign prior to the election to parliament in September of 2018. Because of this, the episode has been examined using classical rhetorical theories to identify what strategies it utilizes to promote sustainable behavior. One of the key purposes of this study is to investigate how the producers describe and dramatize the sea level rise and its aftermath. Due to this the episode was examined through a storytelling perspective considering what basic story design structures it uses. This study is based on research on risk communication about climate change and how they should be communicated to achieve the best possible effect. The research considers emotion regulation straetgies as the missing link in effective communication about climate change. Since early 21st century most of the research conducted on this area has been focused on using fear as a motivator for behavioral change, but in recent years some scientists say that fear is not enough. This study aims to investigate what sort of emotions the podcast episode uses to capture and influence its listeners and in what way these emotions are conveyed.

Over drainage due to water management practices, abundance of native and rare species, and low-lying topography makes the coastal Everglades especially vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise (SLR). Water depths have shown to have a significant relationship to vegetation community composition and organization while also playing a crucial role in vegetation health throughout the Everglades. Modeling potential habitat change and loss caused by increased water depths due to SLR requires better vertical Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and Water Table Elevation Models (WTEMs). In this study, an object-based machine learning approach was developed to correct LiDAR elevation data by integrating LiDAR point data, aerial imagery, Real Time Kinematic (RTK)-Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and total station survey data. Four machine learning modeling techniques were compared with the commonly used bias-corrected technique, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The k-NN and RF models produced the best predictions for the Nine Mile and Flamingo study areas (RMSE = 0.08 m and 0.10 m, respectively). This study also examined four interpolation-based methods along with the RF, SVM and k-NN machine learning techniques for generating WTEMs. The RF models achieved the best results for the dry season (RMSE = 0.06 m) and the wet season (RMSE = 0.07 m) WTEMs. Previous research in Water Depth Model (WDM) generation in the Everglades focused on a conventional-based approach where a DEM is subtracted from a WTEM. This study extends the conventional-based WDM approach to a rigorous-based WDM technique where Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through the proposed SLR depth model using uncertainties in the RF-based LiDAR DEM and WTEMs, vertical datums and transformations, regional SLR and soil accretion rates. It is concluded that a more rigorous-based WDM technique increases the integrity of derived products used to support and guide coastal restoration managers and planners concerned with habitat change under the challenge of SLR. Future research will be dedicated to the extension of this technique to model both increased water depths and saltwater intrusion due to SLR (saltwater inundation). / Includes bibliography. / Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2018. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

A comprehensive study is conducted to evaluate global sea levels for trends and variations due to climate change and variability by using non-parametric methods. Individual and coupled effects of inter-annual ENSO, decadal PDO, multi-decadal AMO, and quasi-decadal NAO on sea levels are evaluated. Combined influences of different phases (cool or warm) of PDO, AMO, and NAO influences and ENSO are also evaluated. The results from this study showed that sea level at 60% of the sites is increasing with time with all four oscillations impacting global sea levels. AMO warm phase individually and PDO warm combined with La-Niña phase contribute to higher sea levels throughout the world. Trends and variations in sea levels are noted to be spatially non-uniform. Understanding and quantifying climate variability influenced variations in sea levels and assessment of long-term trends enables protection of coastal regions of the world from sea level rise. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2017. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Sea level rise (SLR) varies depending on location. It is therefore important to local residents, businesses and government to analyze SLR locally. Further, because of increasing ice melt and other effects of climate change, rates of SLR may change. It is therefore also important to evaluate rates of change of SLR, which we call sea level acceleration (SLA) or deceleration. The present thesis will review the annual average sea level data compiled at the Key West tidal gauge in Key West, Florida. We use a multi-model approach that compares the results of various models on that data set. The goal is to determine if there is a consistent result that can be ascertained from the various models. Generally, all the models reveal a clear upward trend of SLR. Further, the models provide evidence that the trend has increased over the last 8-10 years, i.e., that there is SLA.

Survival and establishment of mangrove propagules at higher tidal elevations beyond the landward margin of their distribution is a requirement for the continued existence of mangrove populations in response to rising sea-level. Despite the growing body of literature that discusses mangrove recruitment patterns, few studies have empirically examined establishment and post-establishment growth success of propagules at the higher intertidal positions into witch mangrove populations are migrating. Using an experimental field approach, this study compares establishment and post-establishment growth success of propagules at three positions across a tidal elevation gradient within a landward-transgressing mangrove population of SW Florida (USA). I observed black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, recruitment as adults of this taxon may occupy low to high tidal elevations of the intertidal zone in SW Florida, indicating that propagules are capable of successfully establishing and reaching reproductive age in novel environments. However, establishment and post-establishment growth of A. germinans in encroachment areas landward to that of lower intertidal positions has not been examined. To accomplish this, I began by monitoring movement patterns of marked A. germinans propagules released at three intertidal positions during a high spring tide to confirm that propagule dispersal to encroachment areas located at higher tidal elevations occurred at the selected field site. Propagule survival, establishment success, and post-establishment growth rate of seedlings was monitored during a reciprocal transplant study utilizing two of the three intertidal positions, one representing a lower intertidal area within the mangrove population’s niche and one representing a higher intertidal area beyond the population’s landward margin. Regardless of parental tree origin, A. germinans propagules had greater establishment success in the lower intertidal position. Likewise mean seedling height was consistently greater among established seedlings in the lower intertidal although the difference in mean seedling height between tidal locations decreased linearly over the monitoring period. Propagule mortality was greatest at the higher intertidal position (27.5% of tethered propagules died) when compared to that in the lower intertidal (0.07%). Interestingly, the tidal position of propagule origin significantly influenced survival only during the first 33 days of the reciprocal transplant experiment. After this time interval and establishment as a seedling, no mortality was observed in either treatment position for 125 days. Together, results show that intraspecific variation in A. germinans propagule establishment and post-establishment seedling growth exists in landward transgressing populations across intertidal positions. My findings indicate that abiotic conditions of the higher intertidal environments into which mangroves are migrating may be detrimental for early life stages of A. germinans but not seedlings. Combined, my results suggest that investigations into mangrove success at novel intertidal positions should focus on limitations at the propagule life stage as there was no indication that survivorship varied among tidal elevation once mangrove seedlings were established. Finally, assessing maternal reserves of dispersing propagules may provide additional insight into the importance of mangrove propagule origin on initial survival.

Sea-level rise is one of the most certain impacts of climate change that will have major long-term implications for tourism in the Caribbean. Sea-level rise will impact coastal tourism through inundation and erosion, damage to tourism infrastructure, (e.g., hotels/resorts, transportation) and also essential coastal resources (e.g., beaches and coral reefs). The study examines the implications of projected scenarios of sea-level rise for tourism in St. Lucia. Using geospatial analysis that integrates elevation data from satellites and digitized locations of tourism properties, transportation infrastructure (airports and cruise ports) and areas that have been zoned for future tourism development, this study identifies tourism assets that would be at risk to permanent inundation from a 1 m sea-level rise, flooding from storm surge associated with a 1/25 year storm event under 1 m sea-level rise, and exacerbated erosion associated with 1 m sea-level rise. The results indicate that while 1 m of sea-level rise would cause permanent inundation at only 4% of the 73 tourism properties assessed (impacting 7% of 4947 of rooms on the island), the additional exposure to storm surge and waves under a 1/25 year storm event would cause flooding damages at 30% of 73 tourism properties impacting 54% of rooms on the island. This study also found that erosion associated with 1 m of sea-level rise would impact 100% of the coastal resorts with inventoried beach assets. The study uses Google Earth and field observations to examine the potential of inland retreat as an adaptation strategy for coastal tourism resorts. Results indicate that 24 of 37 coastal tourism properties assessed would be unable to retreat due to current development or physical barriers, (e.g., water surfaces, protected areas). The study reviewed 16 national policies and planning documents to examine to what extent sea-level rise was considered in tourism planning and development, and found that only two policy documents referred to sea-level rise within the context of tourism. The thesis concludes with a discussion of additional research needs and recommendations for long-term planning and decision-making that are aimed at improving tourism adaptation to climate change and sea-level rise in St. Lucia.

To adequately evaluate risk associated hurricane flooding, numerous surge events must be considered, and the cost associated with high resolution numerical modeling for several storms is excessive. The Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling (JPM-OS) has been recently shown to be a reliable method in estimating extreme value probabilities of hurricane flooding – it relies heavily on a hurricane surge matrix comprised of surge values from several hurricane scenarios (with varying meteorological and climate change characteristics). Surge Response Functions (SRFs) are physics-based equations developed using scaling laws to adequately scale surge response in dimensionless space; they serve as surrogates to high resolution numerical models in estimating hurricane peak surge to populate the JPM-OS surge matrix. Research presented in this dissertation is primarily focused on the development of dimensionless formulations using physics-based scaling laws to account for the contribution of forward speed (v_f), approach angle (theta) and Sea Level Rise (SLR). These parameters are incorporated into pre-existing SRFs for open coast locations and bays. For the bays, in addition to accounting for the effects of v_f and theta in the SRFs, a new dimensionless formulation for the influence of storm size (R_p) is included in the SRFs.   To account for the influence of v_f in the SRFs, the dimensionless formulations primarily consist of the time it takes for surge to build up (over the shelf, for open coast SRFs and within the bays, for bay SRFs). The formulation for the influence of theta primarily accounts for the rotation of the hurricane wind field as the storm makes landfall. For the influence of R_p in the bays, the new formulation scales R_p with the farthest distance through which water mass will move inside the bay, from its center of gravity. A simple correction based on a linear model is derived to account for the influence of SLR on surge response at open coast locations and in bays. The developed dimensionless formulations for v_f and theta (and R_p for bay SRFs) are incorporated into the SRFs to obtain revised versions of the response functions. For open coast locations, the revised SRFs estimate peak surge with an increased accuracy (based on root-mean-square errors of modeled versus SRF-estimated peak surge) of up to 12.5% reduction in root-mean-square errors. In addition, the new formulations improve the predictions of 65% of surge events of 2 m or greater. For the bays, the revised SRFs reduce the root-mean-square errors (by up to 54% in Matagorda Bay), when compared to the previous formulation. These results indicate that the new formulations, which include v_f and tehta (and R_p for bay SRFs), significantly improve the accuracy of the SRFs. Application of the revised open coast SRFs to the JPM-OS framework shows only minor impacts of v_f and theta variation on surge versus return period curves (about 5.2% maximum increase in surge for theta varying from -80 degrees to +80 degrees, and a maximum of 6.7% for fvvarying from 1.54 m/s to 10.8 m/s). Climate change parameters however show a much more significant impact on the surge versus return period curves. SLR variation from 0.5 m to 2.0 m yields a maximum of 42.4% increase in surge, while hurricane intensification from 0.5 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C yields an increase of up to 11.3% in surge.

Die mit dem globalen Klimawandel einhergehende Zunahme der mittleren Jahrestemperatur führt zu einem Anstieg des mittleren Meeresspiegels. Hierzu trägt auch das Schmelzwasser der kontinentalen Eismassen bei. Über die Bestimmung der kontinentalen Eismassenänderungen kann somit auf deren Beitrag zum globalen Meeresspiegelanstieg geschlossen werden. Eismassenänderungen spiegeln sich in Variationen des Gravitationsfeldes der Erde wieder. Diese Variationen werden durch die Satelliten- Schwerefeldmission GRACE monatlich bestimmt. Am Institut für Planetare Geodäsie wurden die Eismassenänderungen des Antarktischen und Grönländischen Eisschildes aus 61 GRACEMonatslösungen für den Zeitraum August 2002 bis Januar 2008 abgeleitet. Sie belaufen sich auf -109 ± 48 bzw. -193 ± 22 Gt/a, was einem äquivalenten Meeresspiegelanstieg von 0.31 bzw. 0.55 mm/a entspricht. / The mean annual temperature rise which goes hand in hand with global warming results in a mean sea level rise. Meltwater influx from continental ice masses is one component of this phenomenon. Hence, the determination of continental ice mass changes makes it possible to infer their contribution to the global mean sea level rise. Such mass variations induce changes in the Earth's gravity field, as observed on a monthly basis by the gravity field satellite mission GRACE. At the Institut für Planetare Geodäsie, mass changes across the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have been derived from 61 GRACE monthly solutions for the period 08/2002 – 01/2008. These ice mass changes add up to -109 ± 48 and -193 ± 22 Gt/a, respectively. This equates to a sea level rise of 0.31 or 0.55 mm/a.

Mangroves and saltmarshes are ecologically important coastal ecosystems; unfortunately, these low-lying coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to global climate change. As sea-levels rise, mangroves are expected to shift their distribution landward towards higher elevation sites that are occupied by other plants, including saltmarsh taxa. Therefore, mangrove recruits at the leading edge of expansion may interact with diverse assemblages of saltmarsh plants, and these interactions could influence the success of mangrove encroachment into higher tidal-elevation areas. The purpose of the research presented here was to investigate empirically the ecological interactions that may influence the recruitment of the black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, into saltmarsh habitats. Saltmarsh plants frequently occurred at the landward boundary of mangrove forests at two sites selected for field studies along the west coast of Florida: Cannon Island and Upper Tampa Bay Park. On Cannon Island, two different field tests investigated mangrove propagule entrapment and dispersal within saltmarsh vegetation. In the first experiment, the entrapment of mangrove propagules within saltmarsh plants, exhibiting different growth forms, was examined during seasonal high tide events. Natural polyculture plots retained a mean (±;SE) 59.3% (±;11.0) of emplaced propagules. Monocultures varied in their propagule retention capacities with plots of S. virginicus retaining on average 65.7% (±;11.5) of transplanted propagules compared to 7.2% (±;1.8) by B. maritima and 5.0% (±;1.9) by S. portulacastrum. Monocultures of the salt marsh grass, Sporobolus virginicus, and natural saltmarsh polycultures containing S. virginicus retained significantly more propagules than either of two succulent plants (i.e., Batis maritima and Sesuvium portulacastrum). Using digital images, saltmarsh plant structure was quantified; the number of entrapped mangrove propagules displayed a significant and positive correlation (r2 = 0.6253, p = 0.00001) with the amount of structure provided by saltmarsh plants. Therefore, the first field study identified structural and functional differences between saltmarsh plants. A second field study employed marked propagules in order to further examine the dispersal patterns of propagules at saltmarsh boundaries comprised of plants with different growth forms (i.e., grass vs. succulent) during seasonal high tides. Saltmarsh plant boundaries erected by taxa with distinct growth forms differentially influenced the proportion of propagules that dispersed seaward and the distance propagules moved seaward. In fact, nearly twice as many propagules dispersed seaward at boundaries erected by succulent plants compared to boundaries composed of grass. The results of this field study support my previous findings that propagule dispersal is comparatively lower in saltmarsh grass than in succulent saltmarsh plants. The findings from these two field studies suggest that the permeability of boundaries formed by saltmarsh plants may modulate landward dispersal of A. germinans propagules. The final field study was conducted at Upper Tampa Bay Park, where a second species of saltmarsh grass, Monanthochloe littoralis, co-occurred with the grass, S. virginicus, and succulent saltmarsh plants to form a mosaic landscape of saltmarsh plant patches. Patches were weeded to create 3 saltmarsh treatments: 1) M. littoralis monoculture; 2) S. virginicus monoculture; and 3) polycultures containing both grasses and at least one other saltmarsh taxa. Propagules of A. germinans were emplaced into saltmarsh patches and followed for 11 weeks. On the last sampling date, the greatest number of A. germinans (n = 51) had successfully established as seedlings within the M. littoralis monoculture plots. In contrast, only 20 (22% of the propagules initially emplaced) A. germinans seedlings established in S. virginicus monoculture plots. These findings suggest that among grass taxa, species identity influences mangrove establishment success, which builds upon our previous findings that demonstrated that saltmarsh growth form (i.e., grass vs. succulent) influenced mangrove propagule dispersal. Combined the findings from these field studies indicate that interactions among the early life history stages of black mangroves and neighboring plants influence mangrove recruitment. Specifically, these field studies provide empirical evidence that the species composition of saltmarsh plants influences mangrove propagule dispersal and seedling establishment. The work presented here has implications for understanding the suite of ecological interactions that may influence mangrove encroachment into saltmarsh habitats at higher tidal elevations as sea-levels rise.