Changes to ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) are going to play a significant role in future sea level rise (SLR), particularly for the Greenland ice sheet. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) found that Greenland ice sheet (GIS) response to changes in SMB is expected to contribute 9 ± 4 cm to sea level by 2100 (Fettweis et al 2013), though other estimates suggest the possibility of an even larger response. Modern ice sheet geometry and surface velocities are common metrics for determining a model’s predictability of future climate. However, care must be taken to robustly quantify prediction uncertainty because errors in boundary conditions such as SMB can be compensated by (and therefore practically inseparable from) errors in other aspects of the model, complicating calculations of total uncertainty. We find that SMB calculated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) differs from established standards due to errors in the CESM SMB boundary condition. During the long ice sheet initialization process, small SMB errors such as these have an opportunity to amplify into larger uncertainties in GIS sensitivity to climate change. These uncertainties manifest themselves in ice sheet surface geometry changes, ice mass loss, and subsequent SLR. While any bias in SMB is not desirable, it is not yet clear how sensitive SLR projections are to boundary condition forcing errors. We explore several levels of SMB forcing bias in order to analyze their influence on future SLR. We evaluate ensembles of ice sheets forced by 4 different levels of SMB forcing error, covering a range of errors similar to SMB biases between CESM and RACMO SMB. We find that GIS SMB biases on the order of 1 m/yr result in 7.8 ± 3.4 cm SLR between 1850 and 2100, corresponding to 100% uncertainty at the 2σ level. However, we find unexpected feedbacks between SMB and surface geometry in the northern GIS. We propose that the use of elevation classes may be incorrectly altering the feedback mechanisms in that part of the ice sheet. / text

<p>According to IPCC estimates, sea levels will rise between .18 and .6 meters by 2100. More recent estimates indicate that actual amounts of sea level rise may be much more, and that 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100 is likely a conservative estimate. These rising sea levels will result not only in more flooding during storm events, but also increased erosion and gradual inundation of coastal property. At the same time, coastal populations in the United States continue to increase rapidly: over half of all Americans live in coastal counties, and at least 25 million more people are expected to move to the coast by 2015. The end result is that human populations, coastal infrastructure, and coastal ecosystems will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study examines the political and legal constraints to and opportunities for adaptation to rising sea levels. Using legal and policy analysis and case studies from California, North Carolina and Texas, this study explores the ability of governments to use market tools, land use regulations, and property acquisition to promote adaptation to rising sea levels. Because of market dynamics and political factors including flaws in public risk perception, I conclude that governments who wish to avoid extensive coastal engineering, , can address coastal community vulnerability through a combination of regulations and incentives that spur state and local governments to engage in forward land use planning and other measures to reduce their exposure to sea level rise impacts.</p> / Dissertation

To respond to the global issue of sea level rise, this thesis examines architectural adaptation strategies by focusing on a low-lying coastal community in Dartmouth Cove in Halifax, Canada. Without a comprehensive adaptation strategy, these residents, along with 75% of the properties surrounding the harbour, will be forced to abandon their homes, resulting in a massive retreat from the coast. This project explores ways to build that can accommodate the future rise in sea level and population growth but are sensitive to the natural environment. It includes designs for urban organizations and amphibious housing blocks. The findings presented in this thesis suggest that amphibious architecture could become a viable solution for coastal environments in urban areas.

Galveston Bay is the second largest estuary in the Gulf of Mexico. The bay’s watershed and shoreline contains one of the largest concentrations of petroleum and chemical industries in the world, with the greatest concentration within the lower 15 km of the San Jacinto River/Houston Ship Channel (SJR/HSC). Extensive groundwater has been withdrawn to support these industries and an expanding population has resulted elevated land subsidence, with the highest land subsidence in the lower SJR/HSC, of over 3 m (3 cm yr^-1) and has decreased seaward throughout the bay to 0.6 cm yr^-1 near Galveston Island. Mercury (Hg) contamination is well documented throughout the bay’s sediments. Sediment vibra-cores were collected throughout the bay systems. 210Pb and 137Cs geochronologies from these cores was used to determine sedimentation rates and correlated to Hg profiles to estimate input histories. Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) is the sum of eustatic sea level rise and land subsidence. The results show sedimentation rates are high in areas with high rates of RSLR and the rates are of the same order of magnitude, however, in general, sedimentation rates are as much as 50% of RSLR, indicating that sedimentation has not kept pace with land subsidence, although they have the same relative order. Hg core profiles were correlated with radioisotope geochronologies and show significant input of Hg beginning around 1940, with a peak around 1971, and a dramatic drop off in concentration afterwards, demonstrating it to be a valuable geochronology tool. Hg concentrations were found to be dramatically higher proximal to the SJR/HSC and progressively decreasing seaward and to distal parts of the bay.

Florida is expanding its urban borders into areas of the native habitat. Increased expansion is predicted through the next several decades. Several sections of the state are home to large carnivores, such as Florida panther and black bear, which are important to ecosystem function. Expansion of roads and urban centers will greatly reduce the quality and quantity of carnivore habitat. In this study, I used Euclidean distance analyses and very high frequency (VHF) telemetry points to produce distance categories in which carnivores either have a negative/neutral/positive association with roads and urban centers. The seven black bear populations followed four different trends: 1) Slight avoidance of roads and urban centers, 2) strong avoidance of roads and urban centers, 3) neutrality toward roads and urban centers, and 3) one population with a positive association of roads. Florida panther showed strong avoidance to roads and urban centers. Finally I modeled Florida panther and black bear habitat using Maximum Entropy Species Distribution software and placed future urban expansion and sea level incursions associated with climate change over the habitat to find high priority conservation areas.

Sea-level rise is one of the most certain impacts of climate change that will have major long-term implications for tourism in the Caribbean. Sea-level rise will impact coastal tourism through inundation and erosion, damage to tourism infrastructure, (e.g., hotels/resorts, transportation) and also essential coastal resources (e.g., beaches and coral reefs). The study examines the implications of projected scenarios of sea-level rise for tourism in St. Lucia. Using geospatial analysis that integrates elevation data from satellites and digitized locations of tourism properties, transportation infrastructure (airports and cruise ports) and areas that have been zoned for future tourism development, this study identifies tourism assets that would be at risk to permanent inundation from a 1 m sea-level rise, flooding from storm surge associated with a 1/25 year storm event under 1 m sea-level rise, and exacerbated erosion associated with 1 m sea-level rise. The results indicate that while 1 m of sea-level rise would cause permanent inundation at only 4% of the 73 tourism properties assessed (impacting 7% of 4947 of rooms on the island), the additional exposure to storm surge and waves under a 1/25 year storm event would cause flooding damages at 30% of 73 tourism properties impacting 54% of rooms on the island. This study also found that erosion associated with 1 m of sea-level rise would impact 100% of the coastal resorts with inventoried beach assets. The study uses Google Earth and field observations to examine the potential of inland retreat as an adaptation strategy for coastal tourism resorts. Results indicate that 24 of 37 coastal tourism properties assessed would be unable to retreat due to current development or physical barriers, (e.g., water surfaces, protected areas). The study reviewed 16 national policies and planning documents to examine to what extent sea-level rise was considered in tourism planning and development, and found that only two policy documents referred to sea-level rise within the context of tourism. The thesis concludes with a discussion of additional research needs and recommendations for long-term planning and decision-making that are aimed at improving tourism adaptation to climate change and sea-level rise in St. Lucia.

The alteration of the global environment by human activities is so widespread that scientists argue we've entered a new geologic epoch known as the Anthropocene. This dissertation examines the impact of human activities on biogeochemical cycling at the land-sea interface. I focus primarily on the role of land use/land cover (LULC) and coastal nutrient enrichment on silicon (Si) cycling in New England rivers and salt marshes. On land, Si is taken up by vegetation, improving plant fitness and protecting plants from a variety of environmental stressors. In aquatic systems, diatoms, the dominant type of phytoplankton in coastal temperate waters, require Si to survive. My research demonstrates that LULC is an important driver of Si export to coastal systems, accounting for 40-70% of the variability of riverine fluxes. Developed watersheds export significantly (p=0.03) more Si than their forested counterparts, which I hypothesize is due to less vegetated cover, a known Si sink, in developed watersheds. Building on this, I calculated the amount of Si fixed by land plants globally (84 Tmol yr-1) and the percent (55%) of global terrestrial net primary production that can be attributed to active Si-accumulating organisms. Next, I created the first complete salt marsh Si budget by quantifying tidal creek fluxes and net Si accumulation in a relatively undisturbed low-nutrient salt marsh. Further, comparing this Si accumulation to that of a high-nutrient marsh revealed that the high-nutrient marsh contained significantly (p<0.05) more Si within the sediments, roots, and porewater. Combining my original data from six New England salt marshes with published values, I quantify the mode of Si accumulation (rejective, passive, or active) by Spartina grasses and the environmental controls on such accumulation. Finally, using radionuclide tracers 137Cs and 210Pb, I calculated vertical accretion rates of five salt marshes and compared these values to historical measurements. I found that accretion rates have slowed and this deceleration is driven, in part, by a decrease in organic matter accumulation. Together, this dissertation improves our knowledge of Si cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and identifies previously unrecognized ways in which humans are perturbing biogeochemical cycles at the land-sea interface.

Global climate change is predicted to affect timing and severity of disturbance events (e.g., fire, drought, hurricanes, wind storms, and inundation), but the extent of these disturbance events and their impacts on natural ecosystems may vary regionally. Rising sea level, increased frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and altered inundation regimes are likely to create changing environmental conditions in low-lying coastal ecosystems. These large scale disturbances may increase resource availability and regeneration spaces, reduce competition, and possibly increase community vulnerability to invasion. Shifting disturbance regimes and invasion together are predicted to drive long-term shifts in coastal plant community structure and ecosystem processes. However, impacts of altered environmental conditions on native and invasive plant species and the species responses to changed environmental conditions are poorly understood. The aims of this study were: (i) to assess the probability of occurrence of juveniles of the invasive exotic Triadica sebifera and co-occurring native species, Baccharis halimifolia, Ilex vomitoria, and Morella cerifera in the field in relation to surrounding environmental factors, (ii) to assess the effects of elevated salinity across a typical coastal transition on germination of T. sebifera, B. halimifolia and M. cerifera, using controlled growth chamber and greenhouse experiments, (iii) to assess the effects of climate change and shifting inundation and tropical storms regimes on T. sebifera, B. halimifolia and M. cerifera, and (iv) to evaluate the role of vesicular arbuscular mycorrhizae (VAM) on spread of invasive T. sebifera in coastal transition ecosystems at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (GBNERR), Coastal Mississippi, southeastern USA. Results from assessing the probability of occurrence of juveniles of invasive and co-occurring native species showed that soil water conductivity (i.e., salinity) was the major factor related to the occurrence of invasive T. sebifera and native B. halimifolia, I. vomitoria and M. cerifera along the coastal transitions. Probability of occurrence of the invasive T. sebifera was significantly related to landscape factors and occurrence was highest in close proximity to roads, trails, power lines, and recreational sites, and water bodies. These results imply that future increases in salinity will negatively impact I. vomitoria, M. cerifera, and T. sebifera, leading to range contraction of these species away from the coast. However, natural and anthropogenic disturbances that often increase resource pulses and reduce competition, likely increase the dominance of T. sebifera in already invaded areas. Positive effects of landscape structures on T. sebifera occupancy highlight the role of landscape variables in promoting new invasions in coastal forests of the southeastern USA. Controlled growth chamber and greenhouse germination experiments demonstrated that germination of all species (i.e., T. sebifera, B. halimifolia, and M. cerifera) decreased with elevated salinity and that the reduction was most pronounced in soils from the most seaward zones along the coastal transition. Although native B. halimifolia was least sensitive to elevated salinity, invasive T. sebifera displayed plasticity of germination trait across different salinity levels in most inland soils. These results suggest that the phenotypic plasticity may facilitate spread of Triadica sebifera under some degree of salinity stress in more inland section of the coastal transition. A manipulative greenhouse experiment demonstrated that simulated canopy damage from intense hurricane winds and associated storm surge produced differential effects on survival and growth of native (B. halimifolia and M. cerifera) and invasive (T. sebifera) species at simulated different forest conditions common in the GBNERR. Invasive T. sebifera was by far the most shade tolerant of the three species and seedling survival under highly shaded conditions may provide it with a competitive edge over native species during community reassembly following tropical storms. T. sebifera may better utilize post-hurricane conditions (e.g., resource-rich empty spaces) and potentially increase its dominance in coastal forested ecosystems. The last experimental study revealed that invasive T. sebifera had higher VAM colonization compared to co-occurring native species both in controlled greenhouse and field experiments, and that the higher colonization leads to significant increases in aboveground biomass, supporting the hypothesis that VAM fungi strongly benefit the invasive species. These results suggest that the VAM colonization may be necessary for the initial establishment of T. sebifera along the coastal transitions. Furthermore, my research also suggested that T. sebifera was not allelopathic and did not interfere with growth of native species. Overall, the findings of this research provide insight into the impacts of climate change related shifts on performance of invasive and co-occurring native species across coastal transitions of the southeastern USA. Variation in invasive and co-occurring native species' performances under changed environmental conditions (e.g., elevated salinity and increased light availability) and improved mutualistic association between invasive T. sebifera and VAM fungi may drive increased invasion with frequent community reassembly of low-lying coastal ecosystems undergoing rapid climate change.

Land loss is a major threat to coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the impacts and interactions of sea level rise, regional subsidence, and anthropogenic changes to land cover and sediment supply. Here, coastlines are rapidly converting to open water due to an inability of coastal systems to keep pace with sea level rise via marsh migration due to barriers in the landscape, including dense shrub encroachment from fire suppression of inland communities. Fire may play an important role in promoting resiliency by in two ways, first by reducing or removing woody encroachment, allowing species to be released to migrate inland, second, by promoting primary productivity of herbaceous vegetation, which in turn, may promote vertical expansion. Where elimination of barriers is not possible (i.e., roads, industry and infrastructure), assisted migration of coastal communities landward (via translocation) may be also be a viable solution to bypass these barriers. This research is focused on the potential contribution of seed banks in landward migration of species, the role that fire plays in compositional change, and how seed banks compare to translocated communities when introduced into new environments. Here, seed bank dynamics were assessed and compared to aboveground vegetation of naturally regenerating and reciprocally transplanted (translocated) sods through time, with and without fire. The objectives of this study were to examine: 1) richness and abundance of species in the seed bank among vegetation zones of the coastal transition gradient; 2) effect of fire on expression of the soil seed bank; 3) emergence patterns and the degree of mixing/dispersion of dominant species within the seed bank among zones; 4) similarity of species composition of seed bank to that of the standing vegetation, pre- and post-fire; 5) similarity of species composition of the seed bank to that of the inter-zonally transplanted sods, with and without fire; and 6) fire behaviors through fuel loads and fire temperatures across zones. Results demonstrate the effect of zone on the composition, species richness and propagule density of the seed bank, and differences in similarity of the composition of the seed bank and standing vegetation. Fire did not appear to affect the composition of the seed bank. Ordinations indicate that seed bank communities are more widely distributed than standing vegetation assemblages. An overlap of communities was observed in each zone of the seed bank except salt marsh. Reciprocally transplanted sods that were burned prior to translocation were more similar to seed bank composition than no-fire transplants. Similarity, related to habitat preference, was most retained when sods were transplanted one zone away, and when transplanted upslope. A series of Procrustes analyses was conducted for combinations of seed bank treatments to standing vegetation of naturally regenerated and reciprocally transplanted plots of varying survey periods. Results showed that seed bank composition was most similar to the standing vegetation of the same survey period, and least similar for no-fire seed bank to transplanted plots surveyed 15 months after transplant. That the no-fire transplant plots were less similar to seed bank than burned transplant plot indicate that similarity between the seed bank and standing vegetation may be retained with fire. Comparisons of the Jaccard’s Similarity Coefficient of transplanted plot to seed bank with and without fire showed that overall, plots that had been burned were more similar to their source plots than those that had not been burned, across all zones. This study provides insight to zonation patterns of the seed bank across the coastal coenocline of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and compositional similarity of the seed bank to both naturally generated and reciprocally transplanted propagules, in order to understand the how these communities respond to sea level rise, how they may be managed with fire, and how plant species respond to conditions across zone, thereby the potential contribution of the seed bank to landward migration and the promotion of resiliency of coastal communities through facilitation of lateral migration in response sea level rise.

The study aims to assess vulnerability to sea level rise of the municipal population from the coastal region of the state of São Paulo. This vulnerability assessment focus on degrees of vulnerability and what are the main factors that affect vulnerability to sea level rise in the municipalities. The study has included indicators of vulnerability to sea level rise which were represented through vulnerability mapping reflecting the degrees of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, exposure and total vulnerability of the municipalities. The results have shown that São Vicente, São Sebastião, Praia Grande, Santos and Guarujá were classified as highly vulnerable to sea level rise and Santos as the most vulnerable municipality. The assessment indicated that approximately 1 million inhabitants of the coastal zone of São Paulo could be affected by a rise of up to 1 meter in the sea level in one generation time, around 100 years. Social factors are among the main factors that affect vulnerability, which are especially related to urban infrastructure; however biophysical factors, particularly linked to erosion and inundation are significant factors to vulnerability to sea level rise in the municipalities likewise, economic factors, as the most vulnerable municipalities concentrate industries with high polluting potential. The identified main factors that affect coastal vulnerability should be integrated in policy considerations that should also focus on long term urban management strategies.