As the sea rises in response to global climate changes, small islands will lose a significant portion of their land through ensuing erosion processes. The particular vulnerability of small island systems led me to choose Martha’s Vineyard (MV), a 248 km2 paraglacial island, 8 km off the south shore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, as a model system with which to analyze the interrelated problems of sea level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. Historical data documented ongoing SLR (~3mm/yr) in the vicinity of MV. Three study sites differing in geomorphological and climatological properties, on the island’s south (SS), northwest (NW), and northeastern (NE) coasts, were selected for further study. Mathematical models and spatial data analysis, as well as data on shoreline erosion from almost 1500 transects, were employed to evaluate the roles of geology, surficial geology, wetlands, land use, soils, percent of sand, slope, erodible land, wind, waves, and compass direction in the erosion processes at each site. These analyses indicated that: 1) the three sites manifested different rates of erosion and accretion, from a loss of approximately 0.1 m/yr at the NE and NW sites to over 1.7 m/yr at the SS site; 2) the NE and NW sites fit the ratio predicted by Bruun for the rate of erosion vs. SLR, but the SS site exceeded that ratio more than fivefold; 3) the shoreline erosion patterns for all three sites are dominated by short-range effects, not long-range stable effects; 4) geological components play key roles in erosion on MV, a possibility consistent with the island’s paraglacial nature; and 5) the south side of MV is the segment of the coastline that is particularly vulnerable to significant erosion over the next 100 years. These conclusions were not evident from simple statistical analyses. Rather, the recognition that multiple factors besides sea level positions contribute to the progressive change in coastal landscapes only emerged from more complex analyses, including fractal dimension analysis, multivariate statistics, and spatial data analysis. This suggests that analyses of coastal erosion that are limited to only one or two variables may not fully unravel the underlying processes.

No description available.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is one consequence of global climate change and given Carpinteria's location right along the coast, the City will likely face the threats of sea-level rise and other impacts in greater frequency and intensity. The intent of this administrative draft is to provide a foundation for future development of a Climate Adaptation Plan, a starting point for the City’s climate initiatives. This administrative draft consists of background information on Carpinteria, a preliminary vulnerability assessment, and a list of potential strategies for City-led implementation. An adaptation plan is sound planning that recognizes the community’s vulnerabilities and attempts to minimize climate change impacts through preemptive action.

Global climate change has been a point of concern over the past century. Some of its major consequences, which are already present, include melting of glaciers, increasing sea water level, temperature rise and excessive acidity of sea water. The natural fluctuations harm the ecology and the biological species will face increased extinction risk. The raise of the water level will cause sinking and gradually vanishing of the land’s surface as a natural resource and place for habitation. It has been estimated that if Greenland ice sheet melts completely, the water would be enough to cover the land with up to 6 meters. The project investigates the consequences of the rising sea levels due to the climate change and what impact this will have on the topography and the natural landscape. It proposes a utopian vision for a large scale strategy for agriculture which does not rely on the use of land. The structure comprises of inflatable spherical modules, which float on the water surface. It is a dynamic and expandable system, with minimal environmental footprint, designed for low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding and land shortage. The more the land surface is vanishing due to the increasing sea levels, the more the structure will stretch to compensate for the loss of farmland.

Sea level rise and changing storm frequency and intensity resulting from climate change create tremendous amounts of uncertainty for coastal species. Intertidal species may be especially affected since they are dependent on daily inundation and exposure. The eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica is an economically and biologically important sessile intertidal species ranging from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Declines and changes in distribution of oyster populations has forced commercial harvesting to spread from subtidal to intertidal reefs. We investigated the potential responses of intertidal C. virginica to sea level rise, and the response of larval settlement to sedimentation which is likely to increase with higher water levels and storm frequency. Inundation was used as a proxy for sea level rise. We hypothesized four possible outcomes for intertidal oyster reefs as a result of changes in inundation due to sea level rise: (a) intertidal reefs become subtidal and remain in place, (b) intertidal reefs will be lost, (c) intertidal reefs migrate shoreward upslope and remain intertidal, and (d) intertidal reefs will grow in elevation and remain intertidal. To test the plausibility of these four outcomes, oyster ladders were placed at two sites within Apalachicola Bay, Florida, USA. Ladders supported oyster recruitment mats at five heights within the range of intertidal elevations. The bottom-most mat was placed near mean low tide, and the top mat near mean high tide to investigate the effect of tidal inundation time on C. virginica. Sediment traps were attached to ladders with openings at equal elevation to the oyster mats. Ladders were deployed for one year starting in June 2012, and again in June 2013, during peak oyster recruitment season. Monthly for six months during year one, sediment was collected from traps, dried to constant weight and weighed to obtain a monthly average for total sediment at each elevation. At the end of one year, oyster mats were collected from the field and examined for the following responses: live oyster density, mean oyster shell length of live oysters, mean oyster shell angle of growth relative to the benthos, and mean number of sessile competitors. We used AICc to identify the most plausible models using elevation, site, and year as independent variables. Oyster density peaked at intermediate inundation at both sites (maximum 1740 oysters per m2), it decreased slightly at the mean low tide, and sharply at the mean high tide. This response varied between years and sites. Mean oyster shell length peaked near mean low tide (6.7 cm), and decreased with increasing elevation. It varied between years and sites. Oyster shell angle of growth relative to the benthos showed a quadratic response for elevation; site but not year affected this response. Sessile competitor density also showed a quadratic response for elevation and varied between sites and years. Barnacles were the primary spatial competitor reaching densities of up to 28,328 barnacles per m2. Total monthly sedimentation peaked at the lowest elevations, and varied by site, with an order of magnitude difference between sites. Sediment increased with decreasing elevation. Outcomes a, c, and d were found to be viable results of sea level rise, ruling out complete loss of intertidal reefs. Outcome (a) would be associated with decrease in oyster density and increase in oyster length. Outcome (c) would require the laying of oyster cultch upslope and shoreward of current intertidal reefs, as well as the removal of any hard armoring or development. Outcome (d) remained possible, but is the least likely requiring a balance between sedimentation, oyster angle of growth, and recruitment. This should be further investigated. A laboratory experiment was designed to test relative impact of varying sediment grain sizes on settlement of C. virginica larvae. Previous studies showed that suspended solids resulted in decreased larval settlement when using mixed sediment grain sizes. Predicted storm levels and hurricane levels of total suspended solids were used in flow tanks. Sediment from the field experiment was sieved into seven size classes, the most common five of which were used in the experiment since they represented 98.8% of total mass. Flow tanks were designed and built that held 12 aged oyster shells, instant ocean saltwater, and sediment. Oyster larvae were added to the flow tanks and allowed one hour to settle on shells. Each run utilized one of the five size classes of sediment at either a high or low concentration. Following the one-hour settlement period, oyster shells were removed from the flow tank and settled larvae were counted under a dissecting microscope. Settlement was standardized by settlement area using Image J. AICc model selection was performed and the selected model included only grain size, but not concentration. A Tukey's post hoc test differentiated < 63 µm from 500 – 2000 µm, with the < 63 µm grain size having a negative effect on oyster larval settlement. This indicates that the smaller grain sizes of suspended solids are more detrimental to oyster larval settlement than larger grain sizes. The oyster ladder experiment will help resource managers predict and plan for oyster reef migration by cultch laying, and or associated changes in oyster density and shell length if shoreward reef growth is not allowed to occur. The laboratory experiment will help to predict the impacts of future storms on oyster larval recruitment. Together this information can help managers conserve as much remaining oyster habitat as possible by predicting future impacts of climate change on oysters.

Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to affect coastal environments in a multitude of ways, including submergence, increased flooding, and increased shoreline erosion. Low-lying coastal environments such as the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) are particularly vulnerable to the effects of SLR, which may have serious consequences for coastal communities as well as ecologically and economically significant estuaries. Evaluating potential changes in tidal hydrodynamics under SLR is essential for understanding impacts to navigation, ecological habitats, infrastructure and the morphologic evolution of the coastline. The intent of this research is to evaluate the dynamic effects of SLR and coastal geomorphology on tidal hydrodynamics along the NGOM and within three National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs), namely Grand Bay, MS, Weeks Bay, AL, and Apalachicola, FL. An extensive literature review examined the integrated dynamic effects of SLR on low gradient coastal landscapes, primarily in the context of hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, and marsh ecology. Despite knowledge of the dynamic nature of coastal systems, many studies have neglected to consider the nonlinear effects of SLR and employed a simplistic "bathtub" approach in SLR assessments. More recent efforts have begun to consider the dynamic effects of SLR (e.g., the nonlinear response of hydrodynamics under SLR); however, little research has considered the integrated feedback mechanisms and co-evolution of multiple interdependent systems (e.g., the nonlinear responses and interactions of hydrodynamics and coastal morphology under SLR). Synergetic approaches that integrate the dynamic interactions between physical and ecological environments will allow for more comprehensive evaluations of the impacts of SLR on coastal systems. Projecting future morphology is a challenging task; various conceptual models and statistical methods have been employed to project future shoreline positions. Projected shoreline change rates from a conceptual model were compared with historic shoreline change rates from two databases along sandy shorelines of the. South Atlantic Bight and NGOM coasts. The intent was not to regard one method as superior to another, but rather to explore similarities and differences between the methods and offer suggestions for projecting shoreline changes in SLR assessments. The influence of incorporating future shoreline changes into hydrodynamic modeling assessments of SLR was evaluated for the NGOM coast. Astronomic tides and hurricane storm surge were simulated under present conditions, the projected 2050 sea level with present-day shorelines, and the projected 2050 sea level with projected 2050 shorelines. Results demonstrated that incorporating shoreline changes had variable impacts on the hydrodynamics; storm surge was more sensitive to the shoreline changes than astronomic tides. It was concluded that estimates of shoreline change should be included in hydrodynamic assessments of SLR along the NGOM. Evaluating how hydrodynamics have been altered historically under a changing landscape in conjunction with SLR can provide insight to future changes. The Grand Bay estuary has undergone significant landscape changes historically. Tidal hydrodynamics were simulated for present and historic conditions (dating back to 1848) using a hydrodynamic model modified with unique sea levels, bathymetry, topography, and shorelines representative of each time period. Changes in tidal amplitudes varied across the domain. Harmonic constituent phases sped up from historic conditions. Tidal velocities in the estuary were stronger historically, and reversed from being flood dominant in 1848 to ebb dominant in 2005. To project how tidal hydrodynamics may be altered under future scenarios along the NGOM and within the three NERRs, a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate present (circa 2005) and future (circa 2050 and 2100) astronomic tides. The model was modified with projections of future sea levels as well as shoreline positions and dune elevations obtained from a Bayesian network (BN) model. Tidal amplitudes within some of the embayments increased under the higher SLR scenarios; there was a high correlation between the change in the inlet cross-sectional area under SLR and the change in the tidal amplitude within each bay. Changes in harmonic constituent phases indicated faster tidal propagation in the future scenarios within most of the bays. Tidal velocities increased in all of the NERRs which altered flood and ebb current strengths. The work presented herein improves the understanding of the response of tidal hydrodynamics to morphology and SLR. This is beneficial not only to the scientific community, but also to the management and policy community. These findings will have synergistic effects with a variety of coastal studies including storm surge and biological assessments of SLR. In addition, findings can benefit monitoring and restoration activities in the NERRs. Ultimately, outcomes will allow coastal managers and policy makers to make more informed decisions that address specific needs and vulnerabilities of each particular estuary, the NGOM coastal system, and estuaries elsewhere with similar conditions.

The following is a compilation of field data collected in 2011 and 2012 in Apalachicola, FL as part of a five year study assessing the ecological effects of sea level rise in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Many coastal communities, both natural and developed, will soon be working to mitigate the effects of sea level rise, if they are not already doing so. This thesis investigates the natural patterns of the Apalachicola estuarine system through the collection and analysis of in situ water, sediment, and biomass samples. Additionally, results of the field samples are presented and recommendations for additional sampling are given. The field methods and procedures developed in this study were designed to be repeated in other estuaries to build upon the work that has been conducted in Apalachicola. Water samples were tested for total suspended solids (TSS) and compared against hydrodynamic (tidal circulation and streamflow) and meteorological (wind and precipitation) characteristics. Streamflow was determined to influence a seasonal base level concentration of TSS. Wind strength and direction consistently influenced small TSS concentration fluctuations, an effect amplified by the shallow nature of the estuary. Tidal circulation appeared to have minor influences on TSS concentration fluctuations within the base level concentration range. Precipitation appeared to influence large TSS concentration fluctuations; however, due to limited data collection during storm events, more data is required to conclusively state this. Sediment cores throughout the lower Apalachicola River revealed that coarse particles settled out in upstream areas while fine particles tended to stay in suspension until low energy areas in the lower portions of the river or marsh system were reached. Finally, biomass samples were used to iv develop regression models utilizing remotely sensed data to predict biomass density in marsh areas with unprecedented accuracy. The documented patterns of this system are to be used as inputs and validation points to update an existing hydrodynamic model and to aid in the coupling and development of sediment transport and marsh equilibrium models. The field campaign developed and implemented here provides a foundation for this novel coupled modeling effort of estuarine systems. From the 2011 and 2012 sampling conducted, it is apparent that Apalachicola can be modeled as a closed system with river inflow and sediment influx as boundary conditions. Forcing local conditions should accurately represent the system. Ultimately, these models will be used to simulate future sea level rise scenarios and will provide useful decision making tools to coastal managers. Future work will include replicating water sampling in subsequent wet and dry seasons in Apalachicola, FL to confirm observed trends, in addition to implementing this sampling in Grand Bay, MS and Weeks Bay, AL. Additional biomass samples will be taken to validate the strong correlations found between remotely sensed data and in situ samples. In similar studies, it is recommended that water samples be taken to adequately represent influences from tidal cycles and riverine inflow. It is also recommended that spatially distributed biomass samples be taken to validate regression models.

Sea level rise (SLR) is posing a great risk of flooding and inundation to coastal areas in Florida. Some coastal nesting species, including sea turtle species, have experienced diminished habitat from SLR. In an effort to assess the economic and ecosystem service loss to coastal areas with respect to sea turtles Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) and Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) were used. The CVM was used to measure the economic impacts of SLR on sea turtles. Open-ended and dichotomous choice CVM was used to obtain the willingness to pay (WTP) values of Florida residents to implement certain mitigation strategies which would protect Florida’s east coast sea turtle nesting areas. The problem of sample selection bias was reduced by surveying residents of two cities that would potentially have varying interest in coastal conservation due to their relative distance from the coast. The hypothetical WTP of Florida households to implement policies designed to protect sea turtle habitat from development encroachment was estimated to be between $21 and $29 per year for a maximum of five years. Characteristics of respondents were found to have statistically significant impacts on their WTP. Findings include a negative correlation between the age of a respondent and the probability of an individual willing to pay the hypothetical WTP amount. Counter intuitively, it was found that WTP of an individual was not dependent on prior knowledge of the effects of SLR on sea turtle habitat. As the level of this awareness increased, the probability to pay the hypothetical WTP value decreased. The greatest indicators of whether or not an individual was willing to pay to protect sea turtle habitat were the respondents’ perception regarding the importance of sea turtle population health to the ecosystem, and their confidence in the conservation methods used. iii Concepts of Habitat Equivalency Analysis were used in order to determine the ecosystem service lost due to SLR. The study area of Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge (ACNWR) has a continually increasing sea turtle population due to various conservation efforts. However, how the inundation of the coastal area will injure this habitat was assessed, and if mitigation strategies to compensate for the loss are necessary. The carrying capacity (CC) of the refuge was chosen as the metric of the ecosystem service. Using the estimated area of ACNWR and the approximate area needed by a sea turtle to nest, the theoretical number of sea turtle nests possible on the refuge was calculated. This value was then projected to the year 2100 using the sea level rise scenarios provided by IPCC (2007) and NRC (2010). In order to quantify the injury caused by the decrease in the refuge’s CC, the number of sea turtle nests on the refuge was projected to the year 2100 using the data obtained over the past 30 years. The analysis concludes a potential loss of service to be experienced as early as 2060’s due to the carrying capacity of the refuge diminishing with the loss of the habitat due to the increase in the mean sea level.

The primary motivation of this study is to estimate the current and future flood hazard throughout the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in the context of sea-level rise. I also analyzed the effects of storm surge and river flow on extreme events to better understand how these events originate and vary spatially and in time. To address this goal, I combined digital water level records (primarily 1983-present) with archival data collected by the California Department of Water Resources (1929-1983) to reevaluate flood hazard in the Delta and investigate the possible sensitivity of the region different sea-level rise projections. Available archival records from 8 stations were digitized and quality assured, producing a length of record that approximately doubles previously available data. The records were then analyzed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto distributions (GPD). Additionally, the contribution of storm surge and river flow to water level events at each station was assessed using a regression approach. Finally, the impact of future sea-level rise on the 1-, 10-, 100-, and 500-year return period water level was assessed through 2150, using recently published sea-level rise projections. Results show that the total water level (tides + storm surge + river flow) during the 100-year event increases by roughly 0.5m between San Francisco and interior Delta stations such as Rio Vista and Venice Island. For present-day sea-levels, the 100y event increased from 2.59 meters at San Francisco to 3.08 meters at Rio Vista (river-km 100from the Golden Gate), using the GPD approach (relative to NAVD-88). Further upstream, river influence becomes an increasingly important component of high-water events. At Walnut Grove (river-km 123), more than 80% of high-water events were forced by river flow, as estimated by the Net Delta Outflow Index (on average). The water level caused by river flow was significantly higher than coastal surge, and the 100y event was estimated to be 4.71 meters (NAVD-88). Confidence intervals and uncertainty in the flood hazard increases as stations become more influenced by river flow, likely because river flow is more variable from year-to-year than the combination of coastal tides and storm surge. The largest high-water events measured in the Delta typically receive a larger contribution from river flow than smaller high-water events. Interestingly, GEV and GPD results are consistent with an earlier assessment of flood hazard in the Delta from the 1970s. Results show that future flood hazard is likely to be significantly influenced by sea-level rise, particularly in the western Delta region which is more coastally influenced. Under the assumption that sea-level rise will linearly add to existing flood hazard, I find that the 100-year event could reach 4.09 meters at San Francisco and 6.21 meters at Walnut Grove by the end of the century, under the “Intermediate-High” sea-level rise scenario. Based on available flood datums, the first flood stage datum may get exceeded once every 10 years by 2150, under the Intermediate scenario. However, since much of the interior Delta is subsiding, individual locations may reach actionable hazard levels earlier. More analysis with sea-level rise, changing precipitation patterns, and vertical land motion should be done to increase the accuracy of projected flood hazards.

Habitat loss is the leading cause of species extinction. Protecting and managing habitat quality is vital to an organism's persistence, and essential to endangered species recovery. We conducted an investigation of habitat quality and potential impacts from climate change to piping plovers (Charadrius melodius) breeding on the barrier island ecosystem of New York, during 2003-2005. Our first step in this analysis was to examined the relationship between two common measures of habitat quality: density and productivity (Chapter 1). We used both central and limiting tendency data analysis to find that density significantly limited productivity across many spatial scales, especially broader scales. Our analysis of plover habitat quality (Chapter 2) focused on 1) identifying the spatial scaling of plovers to their environment; 2) determining the relative importance of four aspects of the environment (land cover, predation, management, and disturbance); and 3) determining the key environmental variables that influence productivity. We found that plover habitat selection occurred within a narrow range of spatial scales that was unique to each environmental variable. Further, we found that management and predation variables influenced population-level productivity relatively more than land cover and disturbance. Environmental variables with a significant positive influence on habitat quality were land management units, plover conservation educational signs, and symbolic string fencing erected around plover nesting areas. We found a significant negative relationship among density of people on ocean beaches, herring gull density, and land cover degradation. To quantify possible impact to plover habitat from future climate change (Chapter 3), we examined the extent of habitat change resulting from different estimates of sea-level rise (SLR) and storminess over the next 100 years. We found that the particular SLR estimate, habitat response, and storm type used to model climate changes influenced the amount of potential habitat available. Importantly, we observed synergy between SLR and storms resulting in the increasing impact of SLR and storms on plover habitat over the next 100 years. Finally, we found that coastal development contributed considerably to habitat loss when combined with climate changes. Our findings raise concerns regarding current plover recovery goals and management strategies. Density-dependent productivity may threaten the goal of a joint increase in both plover population and productivity. We advocate density monitoring and allocation of alternative nesting areas to provide the relief of possible high-density limitations. Based on our analysis of habitat selection and climate change threats, we call for a shift in management focus away from known breeding areas, towards ecosystem processes. Long-term conservation of piping plover habitat quality is more likely through protecting and promoting natural barrier island dynamics (i.e. overwash and migration) and minimizing human development on the barrier islands of New York State.