by Tang Yat Hung, Anthony, Cheng Wing Chiu, Tony, Yuen Kam Por, Alex, Tse Kam Keung, To William. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1985. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 368-369)

Thesis--PlanB (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Stout, 2000. / Field problem. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1988. / Vita. Bibliography: leaves [389]-419.

From Preface: For the best part of a generation the "Shipping Question" was a talking-point in South Africa; yet today it is completely forgotten, and the name of its leading actor is virtually unknown. Scant reference to the controversy will be found in economic- or other histories; in the rare cases where it is alluded to, the treatment is superficial. This study seeks to fill that gap. At the outset it is advisable to define the scope of the work. It is not a history of the South African shipping trade in the pre-1914 era: shiplovers have had that ground amply covered by Marischal Murray, and indeed are unlikely to find in the following pages much to their taste. Neither is it an economic analysis of shipping conferences: there is a growing body of work on that subject, and this study does not seek to add to it. Nor is it a business history: it does not probe the structure, the management or the profitability of shipping enterprise in the period concerned. A full-scale discussion of these latter topics would be a major undertaking in its own right, nor is it at all certain that the necessary materials are accessible or even extant. In short, the study is concerned with the origins, the course and the outcome of the "Shipping Question" of the period 1886-1914. Documentation for a controversy that was essentially mercantile in its origins and its first dimensions might be thought to be patchy and sparse; but it is gratifying to record that a substantial volume of material has been uncovered. The newspapers and periodicals of the time, especially in the period before the Boer War, devoted much more attention to shipping than has since been usual; The British and South African Export Gazette, South Africa, The African Review, and the London edition of The Cape Argus have been of particular value. In that era, again, the Chambers of Commerce occupied a more prominent position in their communities than they seem to do now, and their meetings were reported at length, often to the extent of several columns of newsprint; these reports have been of great assistance. It is fortunate, moreover, that the papers of two of the leading protagonists on the South African side have survived: the Garlick Papers and the Jagger Papers, now housed in the University of Cape Town Libraries; these, while perhaps not as full as might have been hoped, have shed a good deal of light on mercantile thinking and strategy. If the controversy had been confined to the mercantile sector, however, it would scarcely justify detailed investigation. It entered also into the sphere of government and politics and it came to assume an Imperial dimension; and in these aspects it is pleasingly well documented in official primary sources. The papers of prominent public figures, furthermore, have yielded some valuable insights and, in some cases, the documents that rightfully belong in official repositories! The minutes of one of the corporate bodies to the dispute - the South African Merchants' Committee in London - are still extant, and they have been of great use in supplementing the (sometimes condensed) versions of the Committee's proceedings that are available from newspaper- and other sources. While disappointingly attenuated in some areas, the records of the Union-Castle Line have been alike fascinating and indispensable. The papers of Percy Molteno, a member of the Line's management and one of the leading actors in the second part of this study, form a valuable supplement to the records. One cause for regret has been the absence of primary sources emanating from the other shipping lines involved in the controversy. The Union- Castle Line was the dominant partner in the trade, and will therefore occupy the centre of the stage; but its colleagues' records would have been useful in perhaps correcting undue emphases or false perspectives.

Most studies in the area of ocean shipping are descriptive. Certain aspects of tramp shipping have been subjected to empirical analysis, but few authors have been concerned with an objective study of the behaviour of charter rates. The major purpose of this thesis is to analyse the behaviour of tramp shipping rates over the years 1960 -1968, and to discover what impact the forces of supply and demand had on voyage and time charter rates during those years. To accomplish this objective, the thesis is divided into two distinct parts: the first half of the text is confined to identifying the various markets that exist in the shipping industry today. Incorporated with this discussion are pertinent facts and figures that exemplify the changing pattern of vessel ownership within the industry, as well as the impressive growth and diversification of the various facets of ocean shipping. The second half of the text is concerned with a statistical analysis of tramp charter rates, ie., voyage and time charters. Monthly data were gathered on several variables of supply and demand in the shipping industry. The relationships between these variables and charter rates were examined in four distinct categories: 1. between the various categories of rates, ie., voyage, time and tanker rates. 2. the relationship between laid up tonnage and charter rates. 3. the relationship between charter rates and the various stages of activity in the shipyards, ie., ship ordering, ship launching and ship completions. 4. the relationship between the demand for shipping space, as indicated by world sea trade, and charter rates. A number of hypotheses concerning the economic behaviour of charter rates with respect to these variables were formulated and tested by means of a series of multiple regression models to determine whether these hypotheses could be accepted or rejected. Initial tests produced what appeared to be some significant results. However, these proved to have high autocorrelation in the residuals. Following more rigorous testing to remove the autocorrelation, the relationships broke down and the hypotheses had to be rejected. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

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