This dissertation consists of three essays that study mergers and consolidation in the Canadian cable television industry. The first essay provides a historical overview of regulatory and technical change in the industry, and presents the dataset that I constructed for this study. The basic pattern of interest in the data is regional consolidation, where dominant cable companies grow over time by acquiring the cablesystems of small cable operators. I perform a reduced-form empirical analysis that formally studies the determinants of mergers, and the effect that acquisitions have on cable bundles offered to consumers. The remaining essays develop and estimate structural econometric models to further study the determinants and welfare consequences of mergers in the industry. The second essay estimates an empirical analogue of the Farrell and Scotchmer (1988) coalition- formation game. I use the estimated model to measure the equilibrium impact that economies of scale and agglomeration has on firms’ acquisition incentives. I also study the impact entry and merger subsidies have on consolidation and long-run market structure. The final chapter estimates a variant of the Rochet and Stole (2002) model of multi-product monopoly with endogenous quality and prices. Using the estimated model I compute the impact mergers have on welfare. I find that both consumer and producer surplus rise with acquisitions. I also show that accounting for changes both in prices and products (i.e., cable bundle quality) is important for measuring the welfare impact of mergers. / Thesis (Ph.D, Economics) -- Queen's University, 2010-12-09 14:39:15.431

This thesis consists of four papers concerning modelling of count data and tourism demand. For three of the papers the focus is on the integer-valued autoregressive moving average model class (INARMA), and especially on the ENAR(l) model. The fourth paper studies the interaction between households' choice of number of leisure trips and number of overnight stays within a bivariate count data modelling framework. Paper [I] extends the basic INAR(1) model to enable more flexible and realistic empirical economic applications. The model is generalized by relaxing some of the model's basic independence assumptions. Results are given in terms of first and second conditional and unconditional order moments. Extensions to general INAR(p), time-varying, multivariate and threshold models are also considered. Estimation by conditional least squares and generalized method of moments techniques is feasible. Monte Carlo simulations for two of the extended models indicate reasonable estimation and testing properties. An illustration based on the number of Swedish mechanical paper and pulp mills is considered. Paper[II] considers the robustness of a conventional Dickey-Fuller (DF) test for the testing of a unit root in the INAR(1) model. Finite sample distributions for a model with Poisson distributed disturbance terms are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. These distributions are wider than those of AR(1) models with normal distributed error terms. As the drift and sample size, respectively, increase the distributions appear to tend to T-2) and standard normal distributions. The main results are summarized by an approximating equation that also enables calculation of critical values for any sample and drift size. Paper[III] utilizes the INAR(l) model to model the day-to-day movements in the number of guest nights in hotels. By cross-sectional and temporal aggregation an INARMA(1,1) model for monthly data is obtained. The approach enables easy interpretation and econometric modelling of the parameters, in terms of daily mean check-in and check-out probability. Empirically approaches accounting for seasonality by dummies and using differenced series, as well as forecasting, are studied for a series of Norwegian guest nights in Swedish hotels. In a forecast evaluation the improvements by introducing economic variables is minute. Paper[IV] empirically studies household's joint choice of the number of leisure trips and the total night to stay on these trips. The paper introduces a bivariate count hurdle model to account for the relative high frequencies of zeros. A truncated bivariate mixed Poisson lognormal distribution, allowing for both positive as well as negative correlation between the count variables, is utilized. Inflation techniques are used to account for clustering of leisure time to weekends. Simulated maximum likelihood is used as estimation method. A small policy study indicates that households substitute trips for nights as the travel costs increase. / <p>Härtill 4 uppsatser.</p> / digitalisering@umu

Cette thèse a pour but d'étudier les méthodes d'évaluation des ressources environnementales : la méthode des Coûts de Transport (CT) à préférences révélées et la méthode d'évaluation contingente (EC) à préférences déclarées afin de proposer les contributions suivantes. Dans le chapitre 1, nous montrons qu'il est possible si les données sur les deux méthodes sont disponibles pour les mêmes observations, d'obtenir une meilleure mesure de la disposition à payer (DAP) par la combinaison des deux méthodes en utilisant la technique du maximum de vraisemblance simulé. Dans le chapitre 2, nous montrons qu'une nouvelle approche: le "special regressor" pourrait être une solution pour traiter les problèmes d'endogénéité en EC. En utilisant des données sur la DAP pour réduire les risques subjectifs de mortalité due à la présence d' Arsenic dans l'eau potable , nous montrons que le problème d'endogénéité du niveau subjectif de risque de mortalité peut être réglé efficacement. Enfin dans le chapitre 3, en utilisant une nouvelle enquête sur l'électrification rurale au Rwanda, nous proposons un nouveau design de la méthode d'EC en permettant aux personnes interrogées de choisir entre une contribution en temps ou en argent. Ainsi, en plus de mesurer une DAP classique, nous obtenons aussi une disposition à contribuer du temps mesurée en jours, qui est une mesure aussi voire même plus pertinente que la DAP dans le contexte d'un pays en développement. / This dissertation aims at investigating the methods of the environmental resources valuation: revealed preferences Travel Cost (TC) method and stated preferences Contingent Valuation (CV) method in order to propose the following contributions. In chapter 1, we show that it is possible if both CV and TC data are available for the same observations, to obtain a better measure of willingness to pay (WTP) by combining the two methods using Simulated maximum Likelihood technique. In chapter 2, we show that the new special regressor approach could be a solution to treat endogeneity issues in CV. Using data on WTP for reducing subjective mortality risks due to arsenic in drinking water, we show that the endogeneity of the subjective mortality risk level can be treated effectively. Finally in chapter 3, using a new survey about rural electrification in Rwanda, we propose a new design for the CV method by allowing people to choose between a contribution in time or in money. Thus, in addition to measure a conventional WTP, we also obtain a willingness to contribute time measure which is as or even more relevant than WTP in the context of a developing country.

Les préférences, les aptitudes et la personnalité prédisent un large éventail de réalisations économiques. Je les mets en correspondance dans un cadre structurel de prise de décision en utilisant des données expérimentales uniques collectées sur plus de 1 200 personnes prenant chacune plus de 100 décisions à enjeu financier.J’estime conjointement les distributions des préférences pour le risque et le temps dans la population, leur stabilité au niveau individuel et la tendance des gens à faire des erreurs. J’utilise le modèle à préférences aléatoires (RPM) dont il a été récemment démontré que ses propriétés théoriques sont supérieures à celles des modèles précédemment employés. Je montre que le RPM a une forte validité interne. Les cinq paramètres structurels estimés dominent un large éventail de variables démographiques et socio-économiques lorsqu'il s'agit d'expliquer des choix individuels observés.Je démontre l’importance économique et économétrique de l’utilisation des chocs aux préférences et de l’incorporation du paramètre dit de « la main tremblante ». Les erreurs et l’instabilité des préférences sont liées à des capacités différentes. Je propose un indice de rationalité qui les condense en un indicateur unique prédictif des pertes de bien-être.J'utilise un modèle à facteurs pour extraire la capacité cognitive et les « Big Five » traits de la personnalité à partir de nombreuses mesures. Ils expliquent jusqu’à 50% de la variation des préférences des gens et de leur capacité à faire des choix rationnels. La conscienciosité explique à elle seule 45% et 10% de la variation transversale du taux d'actualisation et de l'aversion au risque, ainsi que 20% de la variation de leur stabilité individuelle. En outre, l'aversion au risque est liée à l'extraversion et les erreurs dépendent des capacités cognitives, de l’effort, et des paramètres des tâches. Les préférences sont stables pour l'individu médian. Néanmoins, une partie de la population a une certaine instabilité des préférences qui est indicative d’une connaissance de soi imparfaite.Ces résultats ont des implications à la fois pour la spécification des modèles économiques de forme réduite et structurels, et aussi pour l’explication des inégalités et de la transmission intergénérationnelle du statut socio-économique. / Preferences, ability, and personality predict a wide range of economic outcomes. I establish a mapping between them in a structural framework of decision-making under risk and delay using unique experimental data with information on over 100 incentivized choice tasks for each of more than 1,200 individuals.I jointly estimate population distributions of risk and time preferences complete with their individual-level stability and of people’s propensity to make mistakes. I am the first to do so using the Random Preference Model (RPM) which has been recently shown to have desirable theoretical properties over previously used frameworks. I show that the RPM has high internal validity. The five estimated structural parameters largely dominate a wide range of demographic and socio-economic variables when it comes to explaining observed individual choices between risky lotteries and time-separated payments.I demonstrate the economic and econometric significance of appending shocks directly to preferences and of incorporating the trembling hand parameter - their necessary complement in this framework. Mistakes and preference instability are not only separately identified but they are also linked to different cognitive and non-cognitive skills. I propose a Rationality Index which condenses them into a single indicator predictive of welfare loss.I use a factor model to extract cognitive ability and Big Five personality traits from noisy measures. They explain up to 50% of the variation in both average preferences and in individuals’ capacity to make consistent rational choices. Conscientiousness explains 45% and 10% respectively of the cross-sectional variation discount rates and risk aversion respectively as well as 20% of the variation in their individual-level stability. Furthermore, risk aversion is related to extraversion and mistakes are a function of cognitive ability, task design, and of effort. Preferences are stable for the median individual. Nevertheless, a part of the population exhibits some degree of preference instability consistent with imperfect self-knowledge.These results have implications both for specifying reduced form and structural economic models, and for explaining inequality and the inter-generational transmission of socioeconomic status.

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