The purpose of this study is to derive a method for estimation of costs and benefits of implementing Port Collaborative Decision Making (Port CDM), and to apply this method to the Port of Gothenburg. By using the Port of Gothenburg as a case study, conclusions can be drawn regarding the economic viability of Port CDM in one of Scandinavia‟s largest ports. This study considers two major sources of benefits that are hypothesized to result from transitioning to collaborative port operations: improved possibilities for speed optimization prior to arrival in port due to increased predictability in estimated berthing times, and shortened service times due to increased possibility for planning and resource optimization by port service providers.The estimation of impacts is based on one month‟s traffic data in the Port of Gothenburg. Predictability of estimations is analyzed to determine the benefit potential of Port CDM. The estimated cost savings for cargo vessels can be divided into 5 categories: bunker, emission, time, manning and capital cost savings. The costs of implementing and maintaining Port CDM are estimated with values from relevant previous research.The results of this study indicate that the implementation of Port CDM in the Port of Gothenburg is a profitable investment, for the shipping industry and for society as a whole. The estimated annual net benefit is 27.3 million euros. A sensitivity analysis using alternative unit valuations for emissions, as well as low and high estimations of the effectiveness of Port CDM, indicates that the economic viability of the project is robust under all assumptions considered.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T18:10:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_PERICLES CARVALHO DINIZ.pdf: 2196773 bytes, checksum: 378a301e8b6471cd0a8614d6a8f8e3d8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-30 / The aim of this study is to show the nature of the Petrobrás investment proposed to Maranhão, present prospects and qualify socioeconomic impacts that have formed since 2010, from the project of installing an oil refinery in the city of Bacabeira, located north of the State. The Premium I refinery project has been contained in the strategic planning of the Company since 2009, included in the Business Plan 2009-2012 and replicated in subsequent plans. The investment characteristics signaled for another national economic enclave in the mining industry / oil refining, as has occurred in other locations where such investments have settled and produced in local negative externalities outweigh the benefits, materialized in socio-economic impacts, including environmental. The technical and political discourse of presentation of the project laimed a regional development opportunity with great benefits to the local, as more than twenty-five thousand jobs would be produced. Enclave investments are main feature little integration with the location environment without backward linkages, and their social relations of production are enclosed in the project, because they require reduced manpower, high expertise not normally found in small municipalities of that State. In addition, its production is directed out, with a vocation for export. All this makes immanence of economic enclave a strategic tool of the capitalist system accumulation structure, with strong appeal to the concentration. The contradiction of evelopment based on investments occurs when the production of wealth does not generate income for the local or occurs disproportionately in such a way that stand out negative externalities, which aggravates underdevelopment environment in which the enclave is installed. The Premium refinery project I promised the municipality of Bacabeira never matured in the planning of Petrobrás investor, but has caused various socio-economic impacts in the locality.. / O objetivo desse trabalho é evidenciar a natureza do investimento da Petrobrás proposto para o Maranhão, apresentar perspectivas e qualificar impactos socioeconômicos que se formaram desde 2010, a partir do projeto de instalação de uma refinaria de petróleo no município de Bacabeira, situado ao norte do Estado. O projeto da refinaria Premium I constava no planejamento estratégico da Petrobrás desde o ano de 2009, incluído no Plano de Negócios 2009-2012 e replicado nos planos subsequentes. As características do investimento sinalizavam para mais um enclave econômico nacional do setor de mineração/refino de petróleo, tal como já ocorrera em outras localidades nas quais investimentos dessa natureza se instalaram e produziram nos locais externalidades negativas superiores aos benefícios, materializadas em impactos socioeconômicos, inclusive ambientais. O discurso técnico-político de apresentação do projeto afirmava uma oportunidade de desenvolvimento regional, com grandes vantagens para o local, pois seriam produzidos mais de vinte e cinco mil empregos. Investimentos enclavistas têm como característica principal pouca integração com o ambiente de localização, sem encadeamentos para trás, e suas relações sociais de produção são enclausuradas no empreendimento, porque exigem mão de obra reduzida, de alta especialização, normalmente não encontrada em municípios de pequeno porte maranhenses. Além disso, sua produção tem direção para fora, com vocação para a exportação. Toda essa imanência faz do enclave econômico um instrumento estratégico da estrutura de acumulação do sistema capitalista, com forte apelo para a concentração. A contradição do desenvolvimento via investimentos ocorre quando a produção de riqueza não gera renda para o local ou ocorre de forma desproporcional, de tal forma que se sobressaem externalidades negativas, o que agrava o ambiente de subdesenvolvimento no qual o enclave se instala. O projeto da refinaria Premium I, prometida ao município de Bacabeira, nunca amadureceu no planejamento da investidora Petrobrás, mas causou vários impactos socioeconômicos na localidade.

Tendo em vista o grande número de desastres naturais que têm afetado o mundo nos últimos anos e seus efeitos nocivos à economia e ao bem-estar social, é crescente o interesse da literatura, das organizações internacionais pertinentes e dos formuladores de políticas públicas, por avaliações dos impactos dessas catástrofes. O panorama brasileiro não é diferente, todos os anos o país é assolado por uma série de eventos naturais, que carecem de estudos sobre os seus diferentes impactos. Nesse contexto, o objetivo dessa pesquisa é avaliar, por meio de dois artigos, alguns dos efeitos socioeconômicos dos desastres naturais brasileiros. No primeiro estudo, foi verificado o impacto na atividade econômica dos municípios afetados, mensurada pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) per capita, das chuvas e deslizamentos ocorridos na região Serrana do estado do Rio de Janeiro em janeiro de 2011. Esse evento, distinto aos demais desastres brasileiros, foi considerado em função do número de afetados e óbitos, o maior desastre natural do Brasil. Para investigar a relação de interesse, aplicou-se o método de controle sintético com procedimento de inferência baseado no descrito por Cavallo et al. (2013). Os resultados indicam que a catástrofe gerou efeitos negativos sobre o crescimento econômico dos municípios afetados. Já o segundo artigo, se propõe a avaliar a relação existente entre os desastres naturais hidrológicos e aspectos de saúde, como a morbimortalidade, nos municípios brasileiros. Essas catástrofes, apesar de não se tratarem do desastre mais comum, apresentam elevada recorrência e se destacam quando se trata do número de afetados e de óbitos. As possíveis implicações econômicas dos efeitos na saúde são variadas, perpassando pela redução da oferta de trabalho, perda de ativos, mudanças nas decisões alocativas das famílias, perda de capital humano, entre outras. Assim, o objetivo do segundo estudo é verificar os impactos regionais diretos e indiretos, de curto a longo prazo, dos eventos hidrológicos sobre a morbimortalidade por faixas etárias. Para isso, foi construído um painel de dados municipal com periodicidade mensal, de 2000 a 2012, com informações dos desastres e das taxas de mortalidade e morbidade. Os resultados indicam que, em curto prazo, se destacam os efeitos diretos como o aumento dos óbitos em virtude da exposição às forças da natureza e aos afogamentos. Em médio prazo, os impactos positivos se concentram, principalmente, nas taxas de morbidade em decorrência das doenças transmitidas pela água, com impactos relevantes na região Nordeste e sobre as crianças. Porém, dentre as enfermidades de médio prazo a mais crítica é a leptospirose. Essa doença é potencializada pelos desastres, tanto em relação às taxas de internações e atendimentos ambulatoriais quanto das taxas de mortalidade, em grande parte das regiões do Brasil. Já as doenças de longo prazo são pouco afetadas pelos eventos hidrológicos, com reflexos apenas para a morbidade em função da desnutrição na região Nordeste. Portanto, as evidências encontradas nesta tese indicam que os desastres naturais brasileiros demandam atenção, posto que geram uma série de impactos socioeconômicos nocivos no país. / In view of the large number of natural disasters that have affected the world in recent years and their detrimental effects on economy and social welfare, there is a growing interest in literature, relevant international organizations, and public policy makers on the impacts of these disasters. The Brazilian scenario is no different, every year the country is plagued by a series of natural disasters, which require studies on their different impacts. In this context, the objective of this research is to evaluate, through two articles, some of the socioeconomic effects of Brazilian natural disasters. In the first study, the impact in terms of economic growth of the affected municipalities was evaluated, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the rains and landslides that occurred in the mountain region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011. This event, distinct from the Brazilian disasters, was considered due to the number of people affected and deaths, it was the greatest natural disaster in Brazil. To investigate the relation of interest, the synthetic control method was applied with an inference procedure similar to that described by Cavallo et al. (2013). The results indicate that the event had negative effects on the economic growth of the affected municipalities. The second study seeks to evaluate the relationship between hydrological natural disasters and health aspects, such as morbidity and mortality, in Brazilian municipalities. These disasters, although not very common, present high recurrence and stand out when it comes to the number of people affected and deaths. The economic implications of health effects are varied, ranging from the reduction of job offers to loss of assets, changes in the allocative decisions of families, loss of human capital, among others. Thus, the objective of the second article is to verify the direct and indirect short- and long-term regional impacts of hydrological events on health on different age groups. For this purpose, a municipal data panel was compiled monthly with information from the disasters and mortality and morbidity rates from 2000 to 2012. The results indicate that, in the short term, the direct effects such as the increase of mortality rates due to exposure to forces of nature and to drownings stand out. In the medium term, the positive impacts are mainly on morbidity rates, due to waterborne diseases, with relevant impacts on the Northeast region and on children. However, of the medium-term diseases, the most critical is leptospirosis. This disease is strengthened by disasters, both in terms of hospitalization and outpatient care rates and mortality rates, in most of the regions of Brazil. Long-term diseases are little affected by hydrological disasters, with positive effects only on morbidity due to malnutrition in the Northeast region. Therefore, the evidence found in this thesis indicates that Brazilian natural disasters demand attention, since they generate a series of prejudicial socioeconomic impacts in the country.

No description available.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Sinclair Mallet Guy Guerra / Tese ( doutorado)- Universidade Federal do ABC. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2017. / Since the inauguration of the Bolivia-Brazil gas pipeline (GASBOL) in July 1999, the share of natural gas (NG) in the energy matrix has grown more than any other energy source. In 1999 its share was 4.1% and in 2011, 10.2%. In order to economically make possible the penetration of NG into the Brazilian energy matrix and due to the energy crisis ("blackout") experienced by the country at the beginning of the 21st century, MME and Petrobras launched a demand formation plan for NG. This plan became known as "Massification of NG". Through fiscal incentives and an attractive price policy, the bases for NG penetration in the Brazilian economy were implemented. These strategies encountered problems along the way, especially those related to security of supply and changes in pricing policy. Even so, NG today in the energy matrix is a reality and represented 13.7% of the Brazilian energy matrix in 2015. In fact, the penetration of NG observed specifically between the years 2000 and 2011, the period contemplated by this thesis, promoted several Socioeconomic and environmental impacts. This study period was chosen according to the date of inauguration of GASBOL and due to the availability of data regarding the input-output model. With the purpose of quantifying and qualitatively analyzing these impacts, the present study aimed to analyze the impacts of the recently implemented Natural Gas Industry (NGI) in Brazil. For this, the input-output model was used with 49 sectors and 52 products and the following variables were analyzed: production value, employment generation, GDP, tax collection and emission of pollutants (CO2, CH4 and N2O). The phases of investment and operation were analyzed. Through a counterfactual scenario, where the economic structure of the year 2000 was mirrored in the economic structure of 2011, in relation to products and sectors related to NG. In other words, it was conjectured that there was no observed penetration of NG in the national energy matrix and, if this had occurred, some fuel would have replaced it. The literature consulted suggests that this fuel would have been the fuel oil (FO) in most cases, with the exception of the Residential sector that conjectured LPG and electricity and in the Road Transportation sector, gasoline and alcohol. The results found for both phases suggest that with the penetration of the FO to the detriment of NG the economy as a whole became less efficient and started to pollute more, even though it increased the variation of the value of production, the generation of jobs, of GDP and the collection of taxes. This is due to the fact that it was necessary to offer more tep's of energy and more workers to meet the same final demand. In addition, the state started to pollute more. Despite the fact that, in the counterfactual scenario, the value of production, job creation, GDP and tax collection varied positively, these results are accompanied by a less efficient and more polluting State. It would be up to society to decide on one or another alternative within national energy planning in a new economic cycle within the IGN chain in Brazil. / Desde a inauguração do gasoduto Bolívia-Brasil (GASBOL), em Julho de 1999, a participação do gás natural (GN) na matriz energética cresceu mais do que qualquer outra fonte de energia. Em 1999 sua participação era de 4,1% e em 2011, 10,2%. Com o intuito de viabilizar economicamente a penetração do GN na matriz energética brasileira e em função da crise energética ("apagão") vivenciado pelo país no início do século XXI, o MME e a Petrobras lançaram um plano de formação de demanda para o GN. Esse plano ficou conhecido como "Massificação do GN". Por meio de incentivos fiscais e uma política de preços atrativos foram implantadas as bases para penetração do GN na economia brasileira. Essas estratégia encontrou problemas ao longo do caminho, sobretudo aos relacionados à segurança no abastecimento e às mudanças na política de preços. Mesmo assim, o GN hoje na matriz energética é uma realidade e representou 13,7% da matriz energética brasileira em 2015. De fato, a penetração de GN observada especificamente entre os anos 2000 e 2011, período este contemplado por esta tese, promoveu diversos impactos socioeconômicos e ambientais. Foi escolhido este período de estudo em função da data de inauguração do GASBOL e devido à disponibilidade de dados referentes ao modelo de insumo-produto. Com o intuito de quantificar e analisar qualitativamente esses impactos, o presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar os impactos decorrentes da recém implantada Indústria de Gás Natural (IGN) do Brasil. Para isso, foi utilizado o modelo de insumo-produto com 49 setores e 52 produtos e foram analisados impactos nas seguintes variáveis: valor da produção, geração de empregos, PIB, arrecadação de impostos e emissão de poluentes (CO2, CH4 e N2O). Foram analisadas as fases de investimento e operação. Através de um cenário contrafactual, onde a estrutura econômica do ano 2000 foi espelhada na estrutura econômica de 2011, com relação aos produtos e setores relacionados ao GN. Em outras palavras, conjecturou-se que não houve a penetração observada de GN na matriz energética nacional e, se isso tivesse ocorrido, algum combustível o teria substituído. A bibliografia consultada sugere que esse combustível teria sido o óleo combustível (OC) na maioria dos casos, com exceção do setor Residencial que conjecturou-se o GLP e a eletricidade e no setor de Transporte Rodoviário, gasolina e álcool. Os resultados encontrados, para ambas as fases, sugerem que com a penetração do OC em detrimento do GN a economia como um todo se tornou menos eficiente e passou a poluir mais, mesmo tendo aumentado a variação do valor da produção, da geração de empregos, do PIB e da arrecadação de impostos. Isso se deve ao fato que foi necessário ofertar mais tep's de energia e mais trabalhadores para atender uma mesma demanda final. Além disso, o Estado passou a poluir mais. Em que pese ser positivo o fato de que, no cenário contrafactual, o valor da produção, a geração de empregos, o PIB e a arrecadação de impostos tiveram variação positiva, esses resultados vêm acompanhado de um Estado menos eficiente e que polui mais. Caberia a sociedade decidir por uma ou outra alternativa dentro do planejamento energético nacional em um novo ciclo econômico dentro da cadeia da IGN do Brasil.

Les changements d’usage des terres à des fins de développement s'accompagnent toujours de conflits entre les différentes parties prenantes, en particulier dans le cadre de la construction ou de l'expansion de projets de développement dans les pays en voie de développement. C’est le cas des projets d'infrastructure comme les barrages hydrauliques et de leurs conséquences à la fois positives et négatives. Dans ces projets les conflits émergent en raison des problèmes liés aux attentes foncières, ainsi qu’aux intérêts divergents des différentes parties prenantes. En fonction de leur intensité, ils apparaissent alors sous différentes formes, avec des impacts importants sur les populations locales.La thèse traite des conflits qui surgissent entre les différents acteurs liés au projet de construction du barrage Diamer Bhasha au Pakistan, ainsi de leurs impacts socioéconomiques sur les personnes affectées. Ce projet a commencé à faire face à des oppositions concernant les acquisitions de terres et provoqué des manifestations, des actions en justice, le blocage des routes et des menaces à l’égard des promoteurs du projet.Afin d'analyser les conflits et d'évaluer les impacts socioéconomiques du projet, nous avons utilisé différentes sources de données primaires et secondaires. 61 entretiens ont ainsi été réalisés avec des experts et des parties prenantes appartenant à différents domaines.De plus, 289 articles de différents quotidiens nationaux et régionaux concernant les conflits et les impacts socioéconomiques du barrage ont été étudiés afin de vérifier et de corroborer ces informations. En outre, certains documents publiés par des organisations, publiques et privées, ont également été consultés. Les résultats révèlent différents conflits entre les personnes affectées et le Gouvernement, ainsi qu’entre différents groupes locaux d’acteurs, au sujet des compensations foncières et des droits de propriété. L’étude met en évidence les problèmes posés par le projet au niveau socio‐économiques, qui concernent en particulier un plan de réinstallation inefficace et la perte massive d'emplois. En outre, il explore les causes profondes des conflits, dues à la mauvaise planification, la mauvaise gouvernance, la mauvaise gestion, la corruption et le népotisme dans les différentes activités du projet. L’absence de participation de toutes les parties prenantes et la diffusion inexistante de l'information sur les activités du projet, sont également de très importantes sources de conflits entre les différents acteurs. Enfin, le travail présente des mesures de politiques et des recommandations pour une meilleure gouvernance, en termes de renforcement des capacités des populations locales dans différents domaines et de participation de toutes les parties prenantes à l’ensemble des composantes du projet. / Land use change for the purpose of development always comes with conflicts among different stakeholders, especially under the construction or expansion of developmental projects in developing countries. Thus, infrastructural projects like dams have both positive and negative consequences in this regard. The conflicts in such projects emerge with view of issues associated with the superposition of land expectation, as well as different stakeholders' interests. They appear in different forms, depending upon their intensity, with severe impacts on local people. The article deals with conflicts arising among different actors and their socioeconomic impacts on affected people, due to construction of Diamer Bhasha Dam project in Pakistan. This project started facing opposition from land acquisition and encouraged protestations, legal action in court, road blockage, threatening the project contractor, and violation.In order to analyze the conflicts and to assess the socioeconomic impacts of the project, we used both primary and secondary data sources. About 61 interviews with experts and stakeholders of different backgrounds were conducted.Moreover, under the secondary source about 289 articles from different national and regional dailies on conflicts and socioeconomics impacts of the Dam were studied in order to cross check the information. Further, some literature published by public and private organizations was also consulted.Preliminary results show different conflicts between affected people and Government and also among different groups of locally affected people, over land compensations and property rights. This study further highlights the socioeconomic issues of the project in the form of ineffective resettlement plan and loss of employment opportunities. It further, explores the root causes of conflicts, due to poor planning and governance, mismanagement, corruption and cronyism in different project activities. Lack of participation of all stakeholders and proper information dissemination about all project activities are also main source of conflicts among different actors. Finally, it provides policy measures and recommendations for better governance in the form of capacity building of local people in different areas and participation of all stakeholders in all project activities.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-04T18:21:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricioti Covesi Filho.pdf: 12857524 bytes, checksum: 0342b5d996c6bd278be5ebe3beddc698 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-06-29 / This is a study about the development of commercial aviation throughout the world and in Brazil, along with the construction of airports in urban areas. It is focused on the increasing necessity of airports in our country for cargo and passengers transportation, due to its continental dimensions. It concentrates particularly on the development of S?o Paulo and Campinas and their metropolitan areas. The International Airport of Viracopos, located in Campinas, the economic and technological necessities that lead to changes and the necessity to build a second runway for landings and takeoffs, the saturation of the airspace in S?o Paulo, as well as the consequent impossibility of building a new airport in S?o Paulo. It brings out the territorial qualifications of the International Airport of Viracopos, according to the location of its installations for the activity at which it is aimed. The various government interferences as land expropriations of the airport surrounding areas, bringing consequences not only to its expansion, but also to the people who have taken the area for their habitation. The implementation of legal and illegal division of the land and the relocation of the families to new areas in order to make it possible to build the new runway, parallel to the already existing one. As a consequence, three forces come to sight: the country, the state and the municipality s powers. When it comes to tackling information in order to find the solutions the government takes over, considering that it is the owner of the company that implements and administrates the biggest airports of the country; the state is the organ that issues decrees to expropriate the land and the municipality, which takes in the equipment that due to its extension and complexity is called airport city. The lack of local political motivation for the expansion of the airport is also mentioned. The economic and financial impacts caused by this kind of project and the coexistence of local national or even international industries, in the face of globalization of economic activities in which Brazil is inserted. It comes up with old and new questions in which this equipment is constantly mentioned in aeronautical technical reports as the ideal solution for the problem, but so far it has not been put into practice. / Estudo de caso que aborda o desenvolvimento da avia??o comercial no mundo e no Brasil bem como a inser??o dos aeroportos no meio urbano. Enfoca a crescente necessidade de aeroportos no pa?s pelas suas dimens?es continentais para o transporte de passageiros e cargas. Visa particularmente ? expans?o da metr?pole paulista e a cidade de Campinas com sua regi?o metropolitana e o seu Aeroporto Internacional de Viracopos, situado em Campinas, as necessidades econ?micas e tecnol?gicas que imprimem mudan?as e levam ? necessidade de constru??o da sua segunda pista de pousos e decolagens, al?m da satura??o do espa?o a?reo da capital e tamb?m a inviabilidade de constru??o de um novo aeroporto em S?o Paulo. Ressalta as qualifica??es territoriais do Aeroporto Internacional de Viracopos em fun??o do local da sua instala??o para a atividade fim, as v?rias interven??es dos governos em decretar expropria??es de terras para essas finalidades, seus decretos bem como a crescente ocupa??o dos terrenos no entorno dos limites do aeroporto, trazendo conseq??ncias para sua expans?o e para a popula??o que incorporou esta ?rea como habitacional. Observa os loteamentos legais e ilegais implantados e a realoca??o das fam?lias residentes para novas ?reas com o objetivo de viabilizar a constru??o da nova pista, paralela ? j? existente. Debate o papel dos tr?s poderes, Uni?o, Estado e Munic?pio, na gest?o de informa??es que encaminhem ?s solu??es, j? que a Uni?o ? propriet?ria da empresa que implanta e administra os maiores aeroportos do pa?s, o Estado edita os decretos expropriat?rios, cabendo ao Munic?pio acolher o equipamento que, por sua complexidade e extens?o, ? chamado de cidade aeroportu?ria. A falta de motiva??o pol?tica local para a expans?o do aeroporto tamb?m ? abordada, assim como os impactos econ?mico-financeiros que s?o proporcionados por um projeto de grande magnitude. Aborda a coexist?ncia das ind?strias locais, regionais, nacionais e at? internacionais, num contexto de globaliza??o das atividades econ?micas no qual o Brasil est? inserido. Ainda, levanta quest?es antigas e atuais da constante cita??o deste equipamento nos relat?rios t?cnicos aeron?uticos como sendo uma solu??o ideal, mas at? o momento n?o concretizada.