With the increase in energy demand, and therefore, in energy generation, new high voltage direct current export links and overseas connections of large amounts of power are being introduced. These new links are subject to possible malfunction or failures, which may causea substantial frequency increase in the power system. The need of restorative measurements for over-frequencies is then necessary to regulate this probable imbalance. A new ancillary market product for frequency down-regulation is then being introduced. The Frequency Containment Reserves – Disturbances for downregulation is a service used to handle overfrequencies in the power system. The ancillary market has been historically dominated by hydro, however, with the local plans that set goals to reach 100 % renewable electricity production by the year 2040, ineluctably solar and wind will be occupying a large share of the energy generation, thus the amount of renewable resources to provide ancillary services will increase as well. Nevertheless, requirements to participate in the ancillary market are strict, and renewables face challenges such as unpredictable power generation, making forecasting tools essential for their participation. In this thesis, through the literature and research of an emerging field, the synthetic solar irradiance, an algorithm with adjusted parameters is replicated with the objective of downscaling solar irradiance presumptive-forecasts from 15-minute intervals to 1-minute intervals. An updated clear-sky model, and weather categorization method is used as input to improve the results of the synthesis. A year evaluation with a method to detect irradiance dips is used to evaluate the algorithm. The result of this study contributes with positive outputs. The introduction of this secondary tool to estimate higher resolution irradiance variability data proves to obtain, at 57 % of the point-to-point critical cases examination, an over-estimation of the measured irradiance. This, in turn, grants the actors that participate with solar power the option to adjust the bidding strategy process in the ancillary market accordingly to the output of this tool.

<p>Climate change is recognized as one of the most significant challenge of the 21st century. Anthropogenic activities have led to a substantial increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the Industrial Revolution, with the energy sector being one the biggest contributors globally. The energy sector is now facing unique challenges not only due to decarbonization goals but also due to increased risks of climate extremes under climate change. </p><p>This dissertation focuses on leveraging machine learning, specifically utilizing unstructured data such as images, to address many of the unprecedented challenges faced by the energy systems. The dissertation begins (Chapter 1) by providing an overview of the risks posed by climate change to modern energy systems. It then explains how machine learning applications can help with addressing these risks. By harnessing the power of machine learning and unstructured data, this research aims to contribute to the development of more resilient and sustainable energy systems, as described briefly below. </p><p>Accurate forecasting of generation is essential for mitigating the risks associated with the increased penetration of intermittent and non-dispatchable variable renewable energy (VRE). In Chapters 2 and 3, deep learning techniques are proposed to predict solar irradiance, a crucial factor in solar energy generation, in order to address the uncertainty inherent in solar energy. Specifically, Chapter 2 introduces a cost-efficient fully exogenous solar irradiance forecasting model that effectively incorporates atmospheric cloud dynamics using satellite imagery. Building upon the work of Chapter 2, Chapter 3 extends the model to a fully probabilistic framework that not only forecasts the future point value of irradiance but also quantifies the uncertainty of the prediction. This is particularly important in the context of energy systems, as it relates to high-risk decision making.</p><p>While the energy system is a major contributor to GHG emissions, it is also vulnerable to climate change risks. Given the essential role of energy systems infrastructure in modern society, ensuring reliable and sustainable operations is of utmost importance. However, our understanding of reliability analysis in electricity transmission networks is limited due to the lack of access to large-scale transmission network topology datasets. Previous research has mostly relied on proxy or synthetic datasets. Chapter 4 addresses this research gap by proposing a novel deep learning-based object detection method that utilizes satellite images to construct a comprehensive large-scale transmission network dataset.</p>

The dependence of equatorial ionosphere on solar irradiances and geomagnetic activity are studied in this dissertation using signal processing techniques. The statistical time series, digital signal processing and wavelet methods are applied to study the ionospheric variations. The ionospheric data used are the Total Electron Content (TEC) and the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2). Solar irradiance data are from recent satellites, the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) satellite and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. The Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst) index is used as a proxy of geomagnetic activity in the equatorial region. The results are summarized as follows. (1) In the short-term variations ≤ 27-days, the previous three days solar irradiances have significant correlation with the present day ionospheric data using TEC, which may contribute 18% of the total variations in the TEC. The 3-day delay between solar irradiances and TEC suggests the effects of neutral densities on the ionosphere. The correlations between solar irradiances and TEC are significantly higher than those using the F10.7 flux, a conventional proxy for short wavelength band of solar irradiances. (2) For variations ≤ 27 days, solar soft X-rays show similar or higher correlations with the ionosphere electron densities than the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV). The correlations between solar irradiances and foF2 decrease from morning (0.5) to the afternoon (0.1). (3) Geomagnetic activity plays an important role in the ionosphere in short-term variations ≤ 10 days. The average correlation between TEC and Dst is 0.4 at 2-3, 3-5, 5-9 and 9-11 day scales, which is higher than those between foF2 and Dst. The correlations between TEC and Dst increase from morning to afternoon. The moderate/quiet geomagnetic activity plays a distinct role in these short-term variations of the ionosphere (~0.3 correlation).

Parmi les îles de l’Indianocéanie, La Réunion présente une topographie complexe soumise à un climat tropical fortement variable. Sa localisation dans le sud-ouest de l’océan Indien lui octroie un potentiel solaire important. Concomitamment, son isolement géographique dirige le territoire vers l’autonomie énergétique, par la meilleure intégration des énergies renouvelables dans son mix énergétique. Le verrou de l’exploitation du gisement solaire local réside dans la forte intermittence de cette ressource qui est grandement tributaire de la couverture nuageuse. Ainsi, il est de première nécessité d’approfondir les connaissances du potentiel solaire local, autant en ce qui concerne sa variabilité temporelle que sa répartition spatiale. Les travaux de recherches ici menés s’axent autour de cet approfondissement nécessaire du gisement solaire local. La mesure in situ du rayonnement solaire global n’est pas équitablement répartie sur le département et ne permet donc pas d’établir une cartographie aussi équilibrée que celle offerte par les résolutions de l’imagerie satellitaire. Dans le cadre des travaux de recherches, nous exploitons le produit satellitaire SARAH-E (Solar surfAce RAdiation Heliosat – East) prodigué par le SAF Climat (CM SAF) d’Eumetsat. Les résolutions spatiales et temporelles de SARAH-E permettent d’étudier l’irradiance à la surface de La Réunion sur un total de 89 pixels et de 16 ans de données horaires (0,05°×0.05°, 1999-2015, excluant 2006). Grâce à ces données, nous articulons l’approfondissement de la connaissance du gisement solaire autour de deux méthodologies complémentaires. Dans une première étude, une cartographie du potentiel solaire moyen est établie en combinant ses deux composantes orbitales, soit : les cycles diurne et saisonnier. La complémentarité de cette considération nous permet d’extraire des zones cohérentes tant au niveau spatial que temporel, à l’image de la dynamique atmosphérique locale. En seconde partie, il sera ensuite question de quantifier et qualifier les perturbations possibles pouvant moduler le potentiel solaire moyen dans la journée. Cinq journées-types sont retenues et caractérisées selon leurs structures spatiales et temporalité associée. Par la suite, nous proposons un premier lien entre les perturbations solaires locales et certains processus atmosphériques de plus large échelle. Ainsi, nous estimons des modulations relatives selon l’oscillation de Madden-Julian, les talwegs tropicaux-tempérés et les cyclones. Finalement, nous décomposons la ressource solaire réunionnaise en (1) un potentiel moyen cyclique, selon une combinaison de la variabilité saisonnière à l’évolution diurne, et (2) des perturbations journalières types, présentant des liens avec les dynamiques atmosphériques à plus large échelle. / In the South-West Indian Ocean, La Réunion Island is located in a strong solar potential. However, its complex topography and tropical climate are obstacles to the best exploitation of renewable energies. Thus, the knowledge of the local solar potential has to be deepen, both on its temporal and spatial variabilities. The research here focuses on this deepening of the local solar deposit. Thus, the use of SARAH-E satellite product (Solar surfAce RAdiation Heliosat - East) allows us to study the irradiance of Reunion Island on 89 pixels and 16 years of hourly data. In a first study, the mean solar potential is mapped by combining its two orbital components: the diurnal and seasonal cycles. Their complementarity permits the extraction of coherent zones with the local atmospheric dynamic. In the second part, the daily perturbations modulating the mean solar potential are detailed in five typical days with specific spatial structures and temporality. We then propose a first link between local solar perturbations and the larger-scale atmospheric processes, namely the Madden-Julian oscillation, the Tropical-Temperate Troughs and Tropical Cyclones. Finally, La Réunion island solar resource is decomposed into (1) an mean cyclic potential, combining seasonal and diurnal evolutions, and (2) typical daily perturbations, with links to larger-scale atmospheric dynamics.

This work presents a dynamic model for utility-scale PV systems. The model is based on a centralized converter topology, which uses a voltage-sourced converter (VSC) to facilitate the exchange of energy between PV generators and the utility grid. The related control system regulates active and reactive power injected by the PV system, based on a current control strategy. Moreover, the model includes a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) scheme, implemented with the incremental conductance method. Dimensioning of the model is presented as well as simulation cases to validate its performance. Subsequently, the model was used to analyze the effect of variations in solar radiation on a test network with high penetration of photovoltaic generation. Results showed that without proper compensation of reactive power, variations in solar radiation can cause voltage fluctuations outside allowable limits. Thus, in order to mitigate these fluctuations, local control strategies were implemented to allow the exchange of reactive power between the solar farm and the utility grid. Simulations showed that the proposed strategies can mitigate voltage fluctuations at the point of common coupling, improving voltage regulation in the network. / Este trabalho apresenta um modelo dinâmico de sistemas fotovoltaicos de grande escala. O modelo é baseado em uma topologia de conversor centralizado, que usa um conversor de fonte de tensão (VSC) para facilitar a troca de energia entre os geradores fotovoltaicos e a rede elétrica. O sistema de controle relacionado regula a energia ativa e reativa injetada pelo sistema fotovoltaico, com base em uma estratégia de controle de corrente. Além disso, o modelo inclui um sistema de rastreamento de ponto de potência máxima (MPPT), implementado com o método da condutância incremental. O dimensionamento do modelo é apresentado, bem como vários casos de simulação para validar o seu desempenho. Posteriormente, o modelo foi utilizado para analisar o efeito das variações na radiação solar sobre uma rede de teste com uma elevada penetração de geração fotovoltaica. Os resultados mostraram que sem uma adequada compensação de energia reativa, as variações na radiação solar podem causar flutuações de tensão fora dos limites permitidos. Assim, a fim de mitigar estas flutuações, estratégias de controle local foram implementadas para permitir a troca de potência reativa entre os sistemas fotovoltaicos e a rede. As simulações mostraram que as estratégias propostas podem mitigar as flutuações de tensão no ponto de acoplamento comum, melhorando a regulação de tensão na rede.

This work presents a dynamic model for utility-scale PV systems. The model is based on a centralized converter topology, which uses a voltage-sourced converter (VSC) to facilitate the exchange of energy between PV generators and the utility grid. The related control system regulates active and reactive power injected by the PV system, based on a current control strategy. Moreover, the model includes a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) scheme, implemented with the incremental conductance method. Dimensioning of the model is presented as well as simulation cases to validate its performance. Subsequently, the model was used to analyze the effect of variations in solar radiation on a test network with high penetration of photovoltaic generation. Results showed that without proper compensation of reactive power, variations in solar radiation can cause voltage fluctuations outside allowable limits. Thus, in order to mitigate these fluctuations, local control strategies were implemented to allow the exchange of reactive power between the solar farm and the utility grid. Simulations showed that the proposed strategies can mitigate voltage fluctuations at the point of common coupling, improving voltage regulation in the network. / Este trabalho apresenta um modelo dinâmico de sistemas fotovoltaicos de grande escala. O modelo é baseado em uma topologia de conversor centralizado, que usa um conversor de fonte de tensão (VSC) para facilitar a troca de energia entre os geradores fotovoltaicos e a rede elétrica. O sistema de controle relacionado regula a energia ativa e reativa injetada pelo sistema fotovoltaico, com base em uma estratégia de controle de corrente. Além disso, o modelo inclui um sistema de rastreamento de ponto de potência máxima (MPPT), implementado com o método da condutância incremental. O dimensionamento do modelo é apresentado, bem como vários casos de simulação para validar o seu desempenho. Posteriormente, o modelo foi utilizado para analisar o efeito das variações na radiação solar sobre uma rede de teste com uma elevada penetração de geração fotovoltaica. Os resultados mostraram que sem uma adequada compensação de energia reativa, as variações na radiação solar podem causar flutuações de tensão fora dos limites permitidos. Assim, a fim de mitigar estas flutuações, estratégias de controle local foram implementadas para permitir a troca de potência reativa entre os sistemas fotovoltaicos e a rede. As simulações mostraram que as estratégias propostas podem mitigar as flutuações de tensão no ponto de acoplamento comum, melhorando a regulação de tensão na rede.

L’intégration des énergies intermittentes sur le réseau électrique existant soulèvedes problèmes de stabilité de la balance consommation/production. Afin de limiter les risques,la loi autorise un taux de pénétration maximum de ces énergies de 30% de la puissanceinstallée. Afin de pallier cette limitation, deux pistes sont envisagées, le stockage d’énergie etla prévision de production. Les travaux menés dans cette thèse s’inscrivent dans la secondecatégorie et se concentrent sur la prévision du rayonnement global au sol, ressource principaledes systèmes de production d’énergie photovoltaïque. Dans l’objectif d’une prévision à trèscourt terme (infra-horaire), la problématique développée concerne la fusion d’informationsprovenant d’une part d’observations satellitaires et de l’autre d’observations in-situ telles quedes images hémisphériques. L’approche suivie se veut progressive et s’articule autour de 4grand axes. Le premier chapitre énonce les définitions et les enjeux principaux liés à l’étudedu GHI en décrivant les différents facteurs physiques ayant des interactions sur sa mesure. Lesecond chapitre permet d’évaluer le potentiel des images hémisphériques pour l’estimation durayonnement global. On y développe une méthode d’estimation du GHI basée sur l’utilisationd’un réseau de neurones artificiels permettant d’effectuer une régression non linéaire entre descaractéristiques choisie de l’image et le rayonnement mesuré sur site par un pyranomètre. Letroisième chapitre concerne l’utilisation des images satellitaires pour la prévision à très courtterme du rayonnement global. L’originalité des méthodes proposées provient de l’utilisationen entrées de cartes de rayonnement dérivées des images satellitaires via une méthode externe.L’utilisation de ces cartes de rayonnement permet la construction de modèles linéairessimples (modèles auto-régressifs) grâce à l’homogénéité des données utilisées. Cependant,leur pertinence pour le calcul de champ de vecteurs a également été prouvé et validé dans unsecond modèle. La comparaison des deux modèles ainsi créés à partir d’imagerie satellitairea permis de caractériser les forces et faiblesses de ces modèles. L’intérêt de l’observationsatellitaire réside dans l’anticipation du déplacement des masses nuageuse. Cependant, unbiais non systématique persiste dans la conversion des valeurs des pixels en rayonnement.Ce biais est inhérent à la résolution spatio-temporelle de ces observations. Étant donné cesconsidérations, le chapitre 4 présente alors une méthode d’intégration des données acquisespar l’imagerie hémisphérique, disposant une meilleure résolution spatio-temporelle, dans lesrésultats de prévision satellitaires précédemment évoqués. On joint alors les caractéristiquesretenues au chapitre 2 dans un réseau de neurone avec la prévision pour produire uneprévision dont le biais est largement réduit. L’utilisation de caractéristiques dérivées del’imagerie hémisphérique à la place de simple mesures du pyranomètre est justifiée par l’effetde persistance non souhaité apportées par ces dernières. Ainsi, après avoir étudié chaquesource d’information séparément, on a pu développer un modèle leur permettant de secompléter. / To handle the integration of intermittent energies to the existing grid,managers require more and more acurate tools to forecast the primary resources. This thesisfocuses on the very short term forecast of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), maininput for most photovoltaic power plant. We chose to use both ground based images fromhemispherical cameras and satellite images to provide a forecating tool. In the first handwe present a novel appraoch to estimate the GHI using ground based images. On secondhand, we propose several satellite based methods to forecast the GHI up to one hour. Finally,we developp a new method allowing us to merge both data in order to benefit from theirrespective advantages. All the methods were tested against real data acquired on the SIRTAsite, Polytechnique campus.

This master´s thesis is about searching for a connection between solar illumination and solar irradiance. The task is attempt to find out if it is possible to use one factor in order to determine the other one. Part of this thesis deals with cooling of virtual building.

The Master’s Thesis prospects the suitability of installing a photovoltaic system and a cogeneration unit in the LIPOELASTIC manufacturing facility and proposes their actual realization. Theoretical part describes said facility, its current energy supply situation and presents the proposed realizations' principle of operation. Practical part contains concrete calculations needed for realizations' proposal and their economic evaluation both independently and jointly.

The objective of the first part of master’s thesis is mapping the potential of various types of renewable sources in Europe and Czech Republic, especially solar energy, wind energy, water energy and biomass. There are described principals and ways of energy generation from these sources, brief overview of current technologies, and also their advantages and limitations. An important part is electric supply continuity from renewable sources, there are large differences and the resulting to restrictions on construction and connecting the units to the power system. In this work there are mentioned some impacts on network and rates of change of supply, some sources are also evaluated in terms of maximum power, that can be connected to the power system in our country. The conclusion of the first part is dedicated to energy storage technologies, which are suitable and usable for renewable sources, there are described their principals, properties, status of development and types of aplications, in which these technologies are used. This chapter also focusses on the price level of each technology. The second part of the thesis deals with 1 MWp on-grid photovoltaic power plant design. This design includes also the redox flow batteries accumulation, the first variant calculates on 24-hour steady energy supply, the second optimalized variant calculates on daily energy supply. There are the accumulation system costs estimated and also the payback period for the both variants. Additionally there is also determined minimum penalization for cost-effective operation. The last part is dedicated to changes of impact on the local grid and changes of system impacts, after the accumulation system is installed.