The Republic of South Sudan’s independence on 9 July 2011 revived the possibility of secession as means of self-determination. The purpose of this exploratory study was to analyse and assess the implication of secession on the African environment, with reference to South Sudan. The qualitative research approach enabled the researcher to draw parallels between literature and opinions of experts involved in South Sudan’s secession. Driving the secessionist approach are ideologies and greed of elites and peoples in power, religious differences and the unequal distribution of wealth and resources that exacerbate tensions between the fortunate peoples enjoying opportunities to develop and the excluded, utterly poor peoples just surviving. National and international attitudes sanction or veto the possibility to secede. Although secession could terminate continued disarray, it should only be considered if both states, as parties to the secession, could ensure the delivery of statehood responsibilities to their citizens and neighbouring communities.

MAIR / Department of Development Studies

Despite the signing of the 2005 Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the two decades of South-North Sudan war; and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, to end the current civil war, armed conflicts persist in South Sudan. Two key inadequacies of the liberal peacebuilding model, applied to address modern conflicts in Africa and across the globe are its insistence on international justice instruments such as the International Criminal Court, and the failure to recognize the role of local approaches and to incorporate them into peacebuilding intervention policies. This has resulted in failures to address the grievances and bitterness of war affected people and to reconcile divided communities. This study examines the potential and limits of applying local approaches to post-conflict peacebuilding in South Sudan. Based on empirical data obtained through qualitative case study conducted in South Sudan over five months in 2016, the findings reveal that despite the wide use of local institutions and justice mechanisms, many challenges exist, that pose serious difficulties in solely applying these strategies to transitional justice. However, for the liberal peacebuilding model to address the root causes of internal conflicts and build sustainable peace, local strategies could provide a significant complementary contribution, since dealing with the past entails more than retribution and truth seeking. The study has wider implications in practical and theoretical considerations for ongoing armed conflicts in Africa and other parts of the world.

Since Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005, its border with Uganda has become a hub of activities. These economic activities have been enhanced by ethnic and political relations, but also by diplomatic relations between the two countries. Contrasting developments on the Ugandan side of the border with those on the South Sudanese side, this research draws on empirical fieldwork to examine the impact of diplomatic relations on the development between both countries since 2005, with international trade as the main aspect of development. The study sets out to show how trade between both countries has been affected by the diplomatic relations between them. The post-CPA demand for goods and state-building processes created a range of economic opportunities for traders. This was particularly the case for Ugandan large-scale traders who, as a result, became an important and empowered group. These factors have further been enhanced by good diplomatic relations between both countries, and as a result South Sudan has become Uganda’s most important trading partner as well as a destination for many Ugandans to conduct their trade. Simultaneously, post-conflict problems have emerged in South Sudan such as insecurity, weak government institutions run by incompetent officials, corruption, high foreign exchange rate, cultural diversity, mistrust and poor infrastructure. These problems have emerged as major challenges to trade and investment by Ugandan traders in South Sudan with traders as well as government officials agreeing that these challenges present major setbacks to trade and investment in South Sudan. Ugandan small-scale traders in particular have become more vulnerable to expressions of authority on the part of South Sudan’s post-CPA state, in which state or individual military might is used effectively to control trade. The current conflict, which began in December 2013, has added a new dimension to the list of impediments to trade as insecurity and economic instability have precipitated an atmosphere of uncertainty among many traders and investors. Despite all those challenges, Ugandan traders as well as government officials still view South Sudan as a business destination of choice. Overall, the study confirms that diplomatic relations have enhanced international trade between South Sudan and Uganda by way of solving trade disputes, investment promotion and influencing leadership on policy matters.

The first South Sudanese elections in 2010 returned high proportions of women parliamentarians (32 per cent), largely as a result of gender quota provisions. In the case of post-conflict countries such as South Sudan, processes of political restructuring and constitutional ‘engineering’ can present opportunities for issues of women’s political representation to be institutionalised through gender quota laws. However, the gap between formal laws and their implementation in practice can result in uneven outcomes, particularly in the context of deeply entrenched patriarchal attitudes and customs. Furthermore, whilst the comparative literature underscores the importance of factors such as institutional environment, ‘goodness of fit’, and sanctions for non-compliance in explaining successful outcomes, such elements are routinely absent in sub-Saharan Africa. It is important, therefore, to explain the apparent success story of gender quotas in South Sudan. There are few in-depth stories of the implementation of gender quotas. As such, the mix of formal rules and informal norms that plays out in a particular context – i.e. the rules-in-use – has been asserted rather than captured in practice. The thesis argues that tracing these micro processes is particularly important in post-conflict cases where formal political institutions are fragile and embryonic. The thesis aims to: a) tell the story of the adoption and implementation of gender quotas in South Sudan; b) identify key actors (including political parties), institutional processes, practices, and exogenous and endogenous factors contributing to success; c) explore the role of rules-in-use in implementation; and d) problematise the ‘success’ of quotas and future prospects for women by examining formal and informal institutions and their design. The study employs documentary analysis, interviews and observation methods, using a broadly institutionalist approach. Intensive fieldwork in South Sudan was conducted for one year from July 2010 to 2011, including informal discussions and briefings with political, religious and local government elites, female parliamentarians, and experts in the media, international development and academia. The thesis argues that political institutions are gendered, and therefore the understanding of adoption and implementation processes and norms is crucial to understanding both the success and shortfalls of gender quotas. It argues that political elites matter because they frame popular mandates, strategic discourses and the authoritative drive for quotas. Analysing the interaction between old and new institutions, the thesis shows the impact of legacies on outcomes. It argues that institutional design matters because the use of reserved-seat quotas had unintended consequences which diluted the impact of gender quota on the wider system by concentrating women. Although women are not formally confined to quota seats, in practice female aspirants seeking mainstream candidacies encountered considerable resistance, demonstrating the existence of informal norms which constrained their access to political power. The success of gender quotas is fragile and future prospects for women’s representation are uncertain. Gender quotas are constitutionally enshrined and there is continued evidence of rhetorical support. However, the new political institutions are deeply permeated with traditional norms and power dynamics that blunt the reformist potential of quotas and reinforce the gender status quo. The thesis provides a benchmark study of women and political recruitment in South Sudan and contributes a new empirical case to the comparative gender quotas literature, as well as to the regional literature on gender in post-conflict contexts.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / Bibliography / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Chinese national oil corporations have increased their foreign direct investments over the last decade in Africa, where the political environment of oil producing countries often expose the firms to high political risk. The analysis of political risk is increasingly relevant for the investment decision-making process of Chinese corporations, as changes in political dynamics of host countries can affect the opportunities and profitability of investments. The study emphasises the need for firm-specific political risk analysis as a decision-making tool for international businesses operating in foreign countries. The main research question of the study is concerned with the main indicators of political risk that Chinese corporations may face in the African oil and gas industry. Chinese oil corporations may be affected by political instability, international and internal conflict, corruption, and poor economic and social development in African countries. The political risk they face may be influenced by indicators such as the location of the oil operations, the relative importance of the Chinese oil firm to the host country’s oil industry, the competitive advantage and technical abilities of Chinese oil firms, the support of the Chinese government to state-owned firms, and economic relations that the host government have with China and the oil firm. The study follows a qualitative research approach by way of an empirical case study of the political risk faced by one of China’s national oil corporations, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), in South Sudan. A major part of CNPC’s business operations in Sudan was transferred to South Sudan after the country seceded from Sudan in July 2011. The political risk for CNPC in South Sudan is analysed and measured in accordance with an industry-specific political risk model for the oil and gas industry. The study finds that CNPC faces a high level of political risk in South Sudan since independence. An examination of the political risk analysis is done to serve as a basis for answering the main research question. The hostile relationship between South Sudan and Sudan in particular may expose CNPC to high political risk as it led to the shutdown of the oil industry and violent interstate conflict. However, CNPC’s political risk exposure may be mitigated by certain indicators, such as CNPC’s significance in the operation of the South Sudanese oil industry, CNPC’s attributes of being a Chinese state-owned enterprise, the availability of support from the Chinese government in the form of economic cooperation packages and CNPC’s technical abilities in exploration operations. Furthermore, while negative sentiments on the part of the South Sudanese government towards China and CNPC due to the latter’s close relations with Sudan might expose CNPC to high risk, the risk is mitigated by the high level of economic dependency of South Sudan on both China and CNPC. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die laaste dekade het Chinese nasionale oliekorporasies hulle buitelandse direkte beleggings in Afrika uitgebrei. Die politieke omgewing van hierdie lande veroorsaak egter dikwels dat hierdie firmas aan hoë politieke risiko blootgestel word. Omdat politieke dinamiek in gasheerlande die geleenthede en winsgewendheid van beleggings kan affekteer, is die analise van politieke risiko toenemend relevant in die beleggingsbesluitnemingsproses van Chinese oliekorporasies. Die hoof-navorsingsvraag in hierdie studie handel oor die hoofindikatore van politieke risiko waaraan hierdie korporasies in Afrika se olie- en gasindustrie blootgestel kan word. Politieke onstabiliteit, internasionale en nasionale konflik, korrupsie, asook swak ekonomiese en sosiale ontwikkeling in Afrikalande kan Chinese oliekorporasies affekteer. Die politieke risiko waaraan hulle blootgestel word, kan beïnvloed word deur faktore soos die ligging van oliebedrywighede, die relatiewe belangrikheid van die Chinese oliekorporasie vir die gasheerland se olie-industrie, die kompeterende voordeel en tegniese vermoëns van die Chinese oliekorporasies, die Chinese regering se ondersteuning van staatskorporasies en die ekonomiese verhoudings wat die gasheerland met China en die oliefirmas het. Die studie volg ‘n kwalitatiewe navorsingsbenadering by wyse van ‘n empiriese gevallestudie van die politieke risiko waaraan een van China se nasionale oliekorporasies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), in Suid-Soedan blootgestel word. Sedert Suid-Soedan se onafhanklikheidswording in Julie 2011 is die grootste gedeelte van CNPC se bedrywighede in Soedan na Suid-Soedan oorgedra. Die politieke risiko vir CNPC is volgens ‘n industrie-spesifieke politieke risiko-model geanaliseer en bereken. Die studie toon dat CNPC inderdaad aan ‘n hoë vlak van politieke risiko blootgestel is sedert onafhanklikheid. Die politieke risiko-analise word ondersoek ten einde as basis te dien vir die beantwoording van die hoof-navorsingsvraag. In die besonder kan die vyandiggesinde verhouding tussen Suid-Soedan en Soedan CNPC blootstel aan hoë politieke risiko, onder andere vanweë die sluiting van die olie-industrie en die gewelddadige interstaat-konflik wat dit meegebring het. CNPC se blootstelling aan politieke risiko kan egter verminder word deur sekere faktore soos CNPC se beduidende belangrikheid in die bedryf van die Suid-Soedanese olieindustrie, CNPC se kenmerke as ‘n Chinese staatsonderneming, die beskikbaarheid van die ondersteuning van die Chinese regering in die vorm van ekonomiese samewerkingspakette asook CNPC se tegniese vermoëns in die veld van eksplorasiebedrywighede. Alhoewel die negatiewe sentiment in die Suid-Soedanese regering teenoor China en CNPC as gevolg van hulle noue verbintenis met Soedan vir CNPC aan hoë risiko kan blootstel, word hierdie risiko verminder deur Suid-Soedan se hoë vlak van ekonomiese afhanklikheid van CNPC en China.

In alleviating poverty in Lakes State in general and in the two counties (Yirol East and Wulu) in particular, there is a need to assess the property rights and its effects, identify the livelihoods and production assets of people solely involved in the cultivation of crops and agro-pastoralists, assess the role of land tenure system and how it contributes to land conflicts as well as conduct gender analysis of the impact of land tenure on the vulnerability of women and children in Yirol East and Wulu of Lakes State, South Sudan. Both quantitative and qualitative research methodology were utilized in this study. The qualitative research data consisted of focus group discussion, key informant interviews, and direct observation. Quantitative research data was gathered with the aid of a questionnaire. Two hundred questionnaires were implemented in Yirol East and Wulu County including 100 questionnaires in each county. Furthermore, these primary data sources were supplemented by secondary (or existing) data sources, including the South Sudan Land Act 2009, South Sudan National statistic Bureau, and documents from South Sudan Ministry of Irrigation. The food security is blamed on poor inadequate production assets which include human capital, financial capital, social capital, natural capital, and physical capital. In addition vulnerability factor due to draught, and conflict as well underutilization of the main livelihoods existing in the two communities the agro-pastoral of Yirol East and crop farmers of Wulu counties are the main findings of this research. The author highlighted the need to address the livelihoods and production asset constraints faced by agro-pastoralists of Yirol East Dinka communities and sedentary Beli communities of Wulu County. Dialogues for peace initiatives between rivals should be considered a step forward towards peaceful co-existence. Addressing property rights issues in relation to vulnerable women and children as well as land conflicts due to border demarcation, pastures and water points between communities is essential. / This thesis is an investigation for the use of agriculture and land tenure as a trategy for sustainable livelihoods for rural peoples of Lakes State, South Sudan. Inaddition, it was to access the impact of Sudan civil war on rural lives in the two counties Yirol East and Wulu of Lakes State, South Sudan.

: This study assesses how South Sudan’s 2011 vote for independence has influenced the Nile Basin’s debate over water rights. Although it initially seemed that South Sudan was aligning itself with the upstream riparian states such as Ethiopia and Uganda, effectively leaving Egypt and Sudan as the only opponents to a Cooperative Framework Agreement and redefining so-called ‘historic water rights’, the escalation of the South Sudanese internal conflict between President Salva Kiir and ex-Vice-President Riek Machar changed this situation entirely. The conflict has reached a new stalemate, with Egypt giving military support to Salva Kiir in his fight against Machar, thus befriending South Sudan and strengthening its position in the Nile Basin, and Ethiopia hesitating to offer support and effectively losing South Sudan as a newly found ally. Currently, a Cooperative Framework Agreement is farther away from being signed than it was before South Sudan’s conflict escalated: South Sudan is no longer in any position to sign or implement agreements and policies regarding water issues, which allowed Egypt to reassert its dominant position in the debate. This study foresees three different possible future scenarios: one of perpetuated violent conflict, one of political conflict and one of increased interstate political cooperation.

This research intends to investigate the scope and applicability of the concept of ‘self-determination’ outside the context of decolonisation using South Sudan as a case study. Demands for the exercise of the right to self-determination are widespread. These are vehemently resisted by states who view the concept of ‘self-determination’ as a potential source of territorial disintegration. International instruments which provide for the right to self-determination also discourage the impairment of the territorial integrity of states in the name of self-determination. The problem faced in international law is therefore how to balance the right to self-determination with the principle of territorial integrity. The study reveals that the general understanding is that outside the context of decolonisation the right to self-determination may be exercised within the territorial boundaries of a state without compromising the territorial integrity of a state. The internal exercise of the right to self-determination entails human rights protection, participation in the political affairs of the state and autonomy arrangements. This general understanding is however problematic where a state systemically violates the rights of its people and denies them political participation in the affairs of the state. The people of South Sudan found themselves in such a situation from the time when Sudan gained independence from British colonial rule. Despite a number of negotiations with the government of Sudan, the people of South Sudan continued to be marginalised and their rights violated with impunity. They then demanded to exercise their right to self-determination externally and eventually they seceded from Sudan through the framework created by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005. In the light of the secession of South Sudan from Sudan this study proposes a remedial self-determination approach to the understanding of post-colonial self-determination. In terms of this approach when people are denied the right to exercise their right to self-determination internally, or their rights are deliberately and systemically violated, they may exercise their right to self-determination externally and secede.

The aim of diploma thesis ,,Split of Sudan: Possible scenario for other African countries?" is to analyze internal and external causes of South Sudan's secession and to find out, if these causes have secessionist potential in the cases of Somaliland in Somalia and Biafra in Nigeria. Among the internal causes, we can find for example nationalism or human rights abuses, while the external causes are represented primarily by the role of international community. After South Sudan's declaration of indendence, many scholars what African countries were going to follow Sudan's scenario. For the same purpose, this thesis is aimed at analyzing the cases of Somalia and Nigeria or Somaliland and Biafra to be more precise. Somaliland has been de facto independent from Somalia since 1991 but it hasn't been recognized by any country yet. Although Biafra only exists on the paper, the local secessionist movement has been seeking an actualization of this political unit existing in the 1960s for many years now. First partial goal of this thesis is to analyze the secession of South Sudan according to set theories of secession and to create a hypothesis about suitable condiditons for other secessions. The rest of the thesis is dedicated to testing given hypothesis in the cases of Somaliland and Biafra.