Climate change is a global concern as it may affect many aspects of life, including water supply. A tool used to model climate change’s impacts is called a General Circulation Model (GCM). GCMs project future scenarios including temperature and precipitation, but these are designed at a coarse resolution and require downscaling for employment for regional hydrologic modeling. There is a vast amount of research on downscaling and bias-correcting GCMs data, but it is unknown whether these techniques alter precipitation signals embedded in these models or reproduce climate states that are viable for water resource planning and management. Using the Tampa, Florida region for the case study, the first part of the research investigated 1) whether GCM and the downscaled, bias-corrected data were able to replicate important historical climate states; and 2) if climate state and/or transition probabilities in raw GCMs were preserved or lost in translation in the corrected downscaled data. This has an important implication in understanding the limitations of bias-correction methods and shortcomings of future projection scenarios. Results showed that the GCM, and downscaled and bias-corrected data did a poor job in capturing historical climate states for wet or dry states as well as the variability in precipitation including some extremes associated with El Niño events. Additionally, the corrected products ended up creating different cycles compared to the original GCMs. Since the corrected products did not preserve GCMs historical transition probabilities, more than likely similar types of deviations will occur for “future” predictions and therefore another correction could be applied if desired to reproduce the degree of spatial persistence of atmospheric features and climatic states that are hydrologically important. Furthermore, understanding the sustainability of water supply systems in a changing climate is required for undertaking adaptation measures. Many water suppliers employ GCMs to examine climate change’s effect on hydrologic variables such as precipitation, but little is known on the propagation of mismatch errors in downscaled products through cascade of hydrologic and systems models. The second study examined how deviations in downscaled GCMs precipitation propagated into streamflow and reservoir simulation models by using key performance metrics. Findings exhibited that simulations better reproduced the resilience metric, but failed to capture reliability, vulnerability and sustainability metrics. Discrepancies were attributed to multiple factors including variances in GCMs precipitation and streamflow cumulative distribution functions, and divergences in serial correlation and system memory. Finally, the last study examined multiple models, emission scenarios and an ensemble to obtain a range of possible implications on reservation operations for time periods 2030-2053, 2054-2077 and 2077-2100 since the future emission trajectory is uncertain. Currently there are four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as defined by the IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report which provides time-dependent projections based on different forecasted greenhouse gas emission and land use changes. For this research Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.0, 6.0 and 8.5 were examined. Scenarios were evaluated utilizing reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability performance metrics and compared to a historical baseline. Findings exhibited that RCP 4.5, the lower end of emission scenario, improved reservoir reliability and resilience over time. Conversely, RCP 8.5, highest emissions, resulted in a steady decline of all metrics by 2100. Although vulnerability increased by 2100 for all emission scenarios, on average RCP 4.5 was less vulnerable. Investigation of permits and adjustments to capture extreme flows might be necessary to combat climate changes and precipitation inputs along with improvements to atmospheric emissions, which correlated with system recuperation with time.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Sardinella brasiliensis is a marine pelagic fish that belongs to a single fish stock confined at the Brazilian coast, occurs from Rio de Janeiro (22 ° S) to Santa Catarina (29 ° S) states in southern Brazil. Environmental variables influence on the biology of fishes in different ways. Here we investigate the influence of marine environmental variability on the Catch per Unit of Effort (CPUE) of S. brasiliensis in southern Brazil for 10 years. We tested the correlation of the peaks of oscillation of CPUE with variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll concentration and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). CPUE data were obtained from Fisheries Statistics Bulletins, from the University of Vale do Itajai (UNIVALI). The SST data come from the NOAA Pathfinder project, the chlorophyll concentration (CC) from the NASA Giovanni database and the SOI from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology database. We divided the study area into four areas, confined at the southern coast of Brazil down to the 100 m isobath. We calculated the anomalies of sea surface temperature (SSTA). All time series were treated using linear interpolation for missing points, a 3-point moving average filter, then submitted to cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform. We found that CPUE and SST are inversely correlated while CPUE and CC are directly correlated. There is an annual cycle of CC and biannual for SSTA. The wavelet transform CPUE shows a strong signal in the period of 16 months, all along the time series. In the years 2001 to 2002 and from 2003 to 2006, the period of 21 months is also important and strong. Knowing that the sardine adult stock follows the dynamics of the Brazil Coastal Current, we suggest greater stability of the current in terms of more positive SSTAs and CCs favoring higher spawns more successful and improve conditions for recruitment of S. brasiliensis adult stock to a year later. / A Sardinella brasiliensis, peixe pelágico marinho que tem um único estoque pesqueiro confinado na costa brasileira, ocorre desde o Rio de Janeiro (22° S) até Santa Catarina (29° S). As variáveis ambientais influenciam a biologia dos peixes de diferentes formas. Aqui investigamos a influência de variabilidade ambiental marinha na Captura por Unidade de Esforço (CPUE) da S. brasiliensis no Sul do Brasil durante 10 anos. A CPUE é relacionada com os picos de oscilação da captura da espécie com variáveis como a temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM), concentração de clorofila (CC) e o Índice de Oscilação Sul (SOI). Os dados de CPUE foram obtidos a partir dos Boletins Estatísticos Pesqueiros da Universidade do Vale do Itajaí (UNIVALI). Os dados de TSM provém do projeto NOAA Pathfinder, a CC a partir do banco de dados Giovanni da NASA e o SOI a partir do banco de dados do Bureau of Meteorology australiano. Dividimos o local de estudo em quatro áreas, confinadas na costa sul do Brasil até a isóbata de 100 m. Calculamos as anomalias de temperatura da superfície do mar (ATSM). Todas as séries de tempo foram tratadas utilizando interpolação linear para dados faltantes, filtradas por um filtro de média móvel de três pontos e submetidas à análises de correlação cruzada e transformada de ondeleta. Observamos que CPUE e ATSM são correlacionados inversamente enquanto que CPUE e CC são correlacionados diretamente. Há um ciclo anual para CC e bianual para ATSM. A transformada de ondeleta de CPUE mostra fortes sinais no período de 16 meses, ao longo de toda a série de tempo. Nos anos de 2001 a 2002 e entre 2003 e 2006 o período de 21 meses é igualmente importante e forte. Sabendo que o estoque adulto da sardinha acompanha a dinâmica da Corrente Costeira do Brasil, sugerimos que uma maior estabilidade dessa corrente em termos de ATSMs mais positivas e CCs mais altas favorecem desovas mais bem sucedidas e condições mais propícias para o recrutamento da S. brasiliensis ao estoque adulto um ano mais tarde.

Esta tese apresenta um estudo hidroclimático para a bacia hidrográfica do rio Piquiri-Pr, o trabalho desenvolve-se sob a égide sistêmica e a bacia hidrográfica entendida como unidade de análise da paisagem é a delimitação espacial escolhida para fornecer respostas à hipótese norteadora da pesquisa. O objetivo da pesquisa é compreender como ocorre a dinâmica hidroclimática na bacia em questão, para isso considera-se a precipitação pluviométrica e a vazão fluvial como elementos dinamizadores do sistema e o El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) como o responsável por influenciar a variabilidade temporal desses elementos. Para isso buscou-se descrever estatisticamente a precipitação e a vazão fluvial, os dados de 41 postos pluviométricos foram fornecidos pelo Instituto das Águas do Paraná e os dados de três postos fluviométricos pela Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) no período de 1976 a 2010. Por meio da correlação linear procurou-se explicar as relações existentes entre a precipitação pluviométrica e a vazão fluvial, calculou-se a evapotranspiração e o coeficiente de escoamento da bacia hidrográfica. Determinou-se a influência do ENOS na precipitação e na vazão fluvial utilizando-se dos dados do Índice de Oscilação Sul (IOS) disponibilizados pelo Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre da Austrália, a partir da correlação entre as variáveis e a aplicação do modelo GAMLSS (Modelos aditivos generalizados para posição, escala e forma) buscou-se explicar a participação do ENOS na variabilidade temporal da precipitação pluviométrica e da vazão. Com o desenvolvimento da pesquisa conclui-se que a vazão não é apenas resultante da precipitação, mas os processos de evapotranspiração e infiltração também influenciam na sua variabilidade. Com relação à influência do fenômeno ENOS, as correlações mostraram que o IOS influencia a precipitação e a vazão na bacia hidrográfica do rio Piquiri, com maior confiança, de um a três meses de defasagem, o modelo GAMLSS mostrou-se satisfatório para a determinação da influência do IOS nas variáveis precipitação e vazão. / This thesis presents a hydroclimatic study for the Piriqui watershed, Paraná State, Brazil. The study was developed under a systemic approach, and the watershed, understood as the unit of analysis of the landscape, was the spatial limit chosen to provide responses to the hypothesis guiding the research. The objective was to investigate the hydroclimatic dynamics of the watershed in question, considering precipitation and river flow as elements dynamizing the system and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as responsible for influencing the temporal variability of these elements. To this end, precipitation and river flow were described statistically. Data from 41 rain gauge stations in the period from 1976 to 2010 were provided by Instituto das Águas do Paraná and the river flow datas were provided by National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Águas - ANA). Using linear correlation analysis, we explained the relationships existing between precipitation and river flow and calculated the evapotranspiration and the runoff coefficient of the drainage basin. The influence of ENSO on precipitation and river flow was determined using data from the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) provided by the Bureau of Meteorology - National Climate Centre of Australia. The correlation between the variables and the application of the GAMLSS model allowed us to explain the participation of ENOS in the temporal variability of precipitation and flow. Through the development of the research, we concluded that the river flow results not only from precipitation, but the processes of evapotranspiration and infiltration may interfere with its variability. With respect to the influence of the ENSO phenomenon, the correlations revealed that SOI influences the precipitation and flow in the Piquiri watershed, with greater reliability with a delay of one to three months, and the GAMLSS model showed to be satisfactory for determining the influence of SOI on the precipitation and river flow variables.

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in South Africa. The first part of the study consisted of the compilation of a full history of RVF in South Africa. This was done by compiling all references to outbreaks of the disease in South Africa from all available literature, annual reports, disease reports and animal disease databases. The geographic location and temporal occurrence of each outbreak was recorded as accurately as allowed by the available records. The result was a better and more complete picture than has hitherto been available of the spatial and temporal distribution of RVF for the period 1950, when the disease was first recognised in South Africa, to 2010. Several smaller outbreaks not mentioned in the literature were found. It emerged that large outbreaks occur in the Free State Province, Eastern Cape Province and Northern Cape Province with long periods of absence and smaller outbreaks occur in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng at more frequent intervals.The second part of the study used the data collected during the first part of the study to determine which climatic and other environmental factors could have played a role in the occurrence of RVF in South Africa. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate associations between the various potential risk factors and the occurrence of Rift Valley fever.The study found that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence on rainfall in South Africa has an effect on the occurrence of RVF in South Africa which is opposite to the effect that has been described for Kenya. A positive Southern Oscillation Index (La Niña) increases the likelihood of a RVF outbreak in South Africa.The study also found that very high rainfall during the summer months (December to February) is an important risk factor for the occurrence of RVF and it confirmed the increased risk of an outbreak where pans and wetlands are present as reported in several articles and disease reports on past outbreaks. Several other factors, such as minimum and maximum temperature were also found to have a statistically significant effect on the occurrence of Rift Valley fever. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Production Animal Studies / unrestricted

South African southern right whales (SRWs; Eubalaena australis) have been studied intensively since 1969, and annual aerial surveys between 1971 and 2006 indicate a predominant 6.9% annual population growth rate – a conservation success story after the species’ legal protection from commercial whaling in 1935. However, the prevalence of South African SRW unaccompanied adults (non-calving adults) and cow-calf pairs dropped sharply after 2009 and 2015, respectively. Additionally, the calving interval of many female South African SRWs has shifted from a three-year cycle to a four- or five-year cycle, since 2010, suggesting calving failure. This has resulted in a decrease in the population growth rate from 6.9% between 1971 and 2006, to 6.5% in 2017. SRWs are capital breeders that meet migratory and reproductive costs through seasonal energy intake, leading to strong links between their calving and foraging success. The anomalous trends in the South African SRW population have therefore raised concern about the ecological status of its broad feeding range in the Southern Ocean and ultimately about its continued population recovery. This necessitated investigation firstly into the influence of large-scale global climate drivers, Antarctic winter sea-ice extent and summer ocean productivity on the calving output of the South African SRW population. Auto-regressive integrated moving average models revealed significant model performance improvement through the inclusion of the Oceanic Niño Index (a key measure of El Niño events), the Antarctic Oscillation (the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Ocean) and chlorophyll a concentrations. The findings indicate that the South African SRW calving output appears closely influenced by not only the species’ life cycle, but also by foraging ground productivity and global climate. Secondly, the foraging strategies of South African SRWs during the 1990s (i.e. a period of high calving rates) and the late 2010s (i.e. a period of low calving rates), were assessed, through the analyses of stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope values in SRW skin biopsy samples (n = 122). Results show that South African SRWs underwent a dramatic northward shift in foraging location, as well as a diversification in foraging strategy, between the 1990s and 2010s. Bayesian mixing models suggest that during the 1990s, the population foraged on prey with isotopic values similar to krill from around South Georgia. By contrast, in the 2010s, it is inferred that the population foraged on prey with isotopic values consistent with prey found in the waters of the Subtropical Convergence, Polar Front, and Marion Island. This shift could represent a new strategy to cope with changes in the availability of preferred prey or changes in habitat productivity. However, the co-occurring reproductive declines show that altering foraging strategies may not be sufficient to successfully adapt to a changing ocean. Overall, the results of this dissertation advocate that South African SRWs have recently been affected by environmental change at their foraging grounds, in turn affecting their reproductive success. Their predictive coastal presence and the existing long-term monitoring suggest that the species should be regarded as an indicator species – illustrative of climate change impacts in Southern Ocean ecosystems. / Dissertation (MSc ((Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2020. / Zoology and Entomology / MSc (Zoology) / Restricted

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This study examines Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude wave variations connected to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) to establish connections with the 15- to 25-day wave activity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough region. The AAO index defined from the leading empirical orthogonal functions of 700 hPa height anomalies led to seven distinct circulation patterns that vary in conjunction with the 15- to 25-day monsoon trough mode. For nearly one half of the significant events the onset of 15- to 25-day monsoon trough convective activity coincided with a peak negative AAO index and the peak in monsoon trough convection coincided with a peak positive index. The remaining events either occur when the AAO is not significantly varying or when the AAO-related Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude circulations do not match 15- to 25-day transitions. When a significant connection occurs between the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude circulations related to the AAO and the 15- to 25-day wave activity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough, the mechanism is via equatorward Rossby-wave dispersion. When wave energy flux in the Southern Hemisphere is directed zonally, no connection is established between the AAO and the alternating periods of enhanced and reduced convection in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. / Captain, United States Air Force

Future climate changes will alter disturbance regimes worldwide with important implications for many ecological and social systems. In west central British Columbia, Canada, fire and insect disturbances have shaped the historic character of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca Beissn. Franco) dominated forests. However, since AD 1900 fire suppression and other forest management practices have led to denser forests and conifer encroachment into grasslands. Considering climate changes in interior British Columbia are expected to result in warmer and drier conditions, understanding the influence of climate on forest disturbances is crucial for land managers tasked with both mitigating the effects of disturbance and promoting resilience in forest ecosystems. This research focused on developing multi-century, annually-resolved records of fire and western spruce budworm outbreaks to evaluate: the historic climate conditions related to these disturbances; the influence of grassland proximity on disturbance-climate relationships; and, whether western spruce budworm outbreaks were related to fire activity. At the landscape scale, a detailed study in the Churn Creek Protected Area revealed spatially variable stand structure and fire-climate relationships at a low elevation forest-grassland ecotone over the interval AD 1600 to 1900. This finding suggests the site was characterized by fires of mixed-severity dominated by frequent, low-severity, fires related to positive antecedent moisture conditions punctuated by widespread fires of moderate to high severity related to intervals of persistent drought. At the regional scale, the influence of interannual climate variability and large-scale patterns of climate variability (e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation) was evaluated using new and existing records of fire history and multiple climate pattern reconstructions. Regional fire activity was shown to be significantly related to interannual climate variability, and no consistent patterns between regional fire years and the individual phases or phase combinations of large-scale patterns of climate variability were detected. The findings suggest that the spatial expression of large-scale climate patterns translates into weak and undetectable terrestrial effects related to fire activity in this region. The influence of grassland proximity on disturbance history was investigated using site-level and regional tree-ring reconstructions of western spruce budworm outbreaks and fire activity based on four sites adjacent to grasslands and four sites not adjacent to grasslands between AD 1600 and 1900 (fire) and AD 1600 and 2009 (western spruce budworm). Fires affecting grassland proximal sites were more frequent than fires occurring in forests not adjacent to grasslands, and the character of western spruce budworm outbreaks was generally consistent among all sites. Fire activity was related to both warm, dry and cool, wet conditions in the fire year and/or year(s) preceding the fire depending on proximity to grasslands, suggesting climate conditions associated with both fine fuel growth and drying are key determinants for fire activity. The initiation of western spruce budworm outbreaks was significantly related to drought and this relationship was enhanced at sites adjacent to grasslands. At the site-level and regional scale, no consistent association was found between the initiation of western spruce budworm outbreaks and fire years indicating the historic interaction between these disturbances is weak or non-existent. / Graduate

Este estudo discute uma climatologia de 59 anos (1949-2007) de bloqueios no Hemisfério Sul (SH) usando dados de altura geopotencial em 500-hPa das reanálises do National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). A variabilidade espaço-temporal dos eventos de bloqueio e associações com o El Niño/Oscilação do Sul (ENOS) também foram examinadas. Adicionalmente, os bloqueios foram investigados em dois Modelos de Circulação Geral Acoplados Atmosfera-Oceano de clima (MCGAO) do Intergovernamental Painel for Climate Change (IPCC), o ECHAM5/MPI-OM e o MIROC 3.2. Dois cenários simulados foram analisados: O clima do século XX e o cenário de emissão A1B. Os episódios do ENOS foram identificados usando dois métodos. O primeiro foi o Índice Oceânico Mensal do Niño (ONI) do Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NCEP). O segundo método foi baseado em Funções Empíricas Ortogonais (EOF) e foi aplicado nos MCGAOs. Similarmente, também foi examinado a influencia combinada do ENOS e a Oscilação Antártica (AAO) na ocorrência e características dos bloqueios. O índice diário da AAO foi obtido pelo CPC-NCEP. Os índices convencionais de bloqueios detectam principalmente variações longitudinais. Este trabalho propõe um índice de bloqueio que detecta, além de variações longitudinais também as variações latitudinais dos bloqueios. Cinco setores relevantes de bloqueios foram examinados em detalhes: Indico Sudoeste (SB1), Pacífico Sudoeste (SB2), Pacífico Central (SB3), Pacífico Sudeste (SB4) e Atlântico Sudoeste (SB5). Além disso, foram investigados duas grandes regiões do Pacífico Sul: Pacífico Oeste e Pacífico Leste. Foi encontrado que a escala média típica dos eventos de bloqueio varia entre 1,5 e 2,5 dias. Além disso, a duração dos eventos depende da latitude, com eventos de maior duração observados em latitudes mais altas. Diferenças longitudinais estatisticamente significativas na freqüência do escoamento bloqueado foram observadas entre as fases Quente e Neutra do ENOS desde o outono a primavera. Episódios intensos da fase Quente do ENOS (isto é, moderados a fortes) tendem a modificar o local preferencial de bloqueio, mas não a freqüência. Por outro lado, os episódios fracos da fase Quente do ENOS estiveram associados relativamente com alta freqüência. Os Eventos de bloqueio durante o ENOS+ duram, em média, mais um dia relativamente aos episódios Neutros. Em contraste, a fase Fria do ENOS (ENOS-) caracterizou-se pela redução dos eventos de bloqueio sobre o setor do Pacífico Central, exceto durante os meses do verão austral. Entretanto, nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significativa foi detectada na duração dos eventos. Composições de anomalias de vento em 200-hPa indicam que o enfraquecimento (fortalecimento) do jato polar em torno de 60ºS durante a AAO negativa (positiva) em ambas as fases do ENOS tem uma importância significativa no aumento (redução) dos eventos de bloqueio. Um significativo aumento estatístico dos eventos sobre o setor do Pacífico Sudeste foi observado durante a AAO negativa em ambas as fases do ENOS. Ainda, um aumento (redução) dos eventos foi observado sobre a região do Pacífico Oeste na fase negativa (positiva) da AAO durante o ENOS-. Em contraste, durante o ENOS+ não houve diferenças estatisticamente significativas na distribuição longitudinal dos eventos separado de acordo com as fases opostas da AAO, embora haja um aumento (redução) dos eventos da região do Pacífico Oeste para o Pacífico Leste durante a fase negativa (positiva) da AAO. Os MCGAOs simularam corretamente a amplitude do ciclo anual observado. Também, ambos os MCGAOs simularam melhor a duração e o local preferencial do que freqüência. Nenhum MCGAO simulou adequadamente a freqüência durante a fase Neutra do ENOS. O ECHAM5/MPI-OM (rodada 2) mostra um erro sistemático que levam a uma superestimativa na freqüência de eventos sobre o Pacífico Leste durante as fases Neutra e Fria do ENOS. As diferenças entre as duas versões do MIROC 3.2 indicam que a alta resolução nos modelos melhora o desempenho em simular a freqüência de bloqueios. / This study discusses 59-yr climatology (1949-2007) of Southern Hemisphere (SH) blockings using daily 500-hPa geopotential height data from National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. The spatiotemporal variability of blocking events and associations with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are examined. Additionally, blockings were examined in two Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM), ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC 3.2. Two sets of simulations were examined: the climate of the 20th century and the A1B emission scenario. ENSO episodes were identified using two methods. The first method was the Monthly Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NCEP). The second method was based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and was applied to identify ENSO episodes in the CGCMs. Similarly, the combined influence of ENSO and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the occurrence and characteristics of blockings was also examined. The daily AAO index was obtained from CPC/NCEP. Most conventional blocking indices detect longitudinal variations of blockings. In this study we propose a new blocking index that detects longitudinal and latitudinal variations of blockings. The following relevant sectors of blocking occurrence were identified and examined in detail: Southeast Indian (SB1), Southwest Pacific (SB2), Central Pacific (SB3), Southeast Pacific (SB4) and Southwest Atlantic (SB5) oceans. In addition, we investigated two large regions of South Pacific: West Pacific and East Pacific. We found that the typical timescale of a blocking event is about ~1.5 2.5 days. Nonetheless, the duration of events depends on the latitude, with larger durations observed at higher latitudes. Statistically significant differences in the longitude of blockings are observed between Warm (ENSO+) and Neutral ENSO phases from the Austral fall to spring. Moderate to strong Warm ENSO episodes modulate the preferred locations of blockings but do not play a significant role for variations in their frequency. On the other hand, weak ENOS+ episodes were associated with relatively high frequency of blockings. Blocking events during ENSO+ last on average one more day compared to events that occur during Neutral episodes. In contrast, Cold (ENOS-) ENSO episodes are characterized by a decrease of blockings over the Central Pacific sector, except during the Austral summer months. However, no statistically significant differences are detected in the duration. Composites of 200-hPa zonal wind anomalies indicate that the weakening (strengthening) of the polar jet around 60oS during negative (positive) AAO phases in both ENSO phases plays a major role for the relative increase (decrease) of blocking events. A statistically significant increase of events over Southeast Pacific is observed during negative AAO phases in both ENSO phases. Moreover, an increase (decrease) of events is observed over West Pacific region when negative (positive) AAO phases occur during ENSO-. In contrast, during ENSO+ there is no statistically significant difference in the longitudinal distribution of events separated according to opposite AAO phases, although there is an increase (decrease) in the events from West Pacific region to East Pacific during negative (positive) AAO phase. The CGCMs investigated in this study correctly simulated the amplitude of observed annual cycle of geopotential height in the extratropics. Also, both CGCMs show a better performance in simulating the duration and preferred locations of blockings than their frequency. None of these CGCMs simulated well the frequency during Neutral ENSO phase. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM (run2) shows systematic biases in some regions. For instance, this model overestimates the frequency of blockings over East Pacific region during Cold and Neutral ENSO phases. The differences between the two versions of MIROC 3.2 indicate that the increase in resolution improves the performance of the model in simulating the frequency of blockings.

On sait aujourd'hui que les processus stratosphériques jouent un rôle important dans le système climatique et leur étude est donc de grande importance pour la communauté scientifique. Les changements à long terme observés dans la stratosphère comprennent l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre, de la vapeur d'eau, la diminution de l'ozone et un refroidissement systématique de cette région de l'atmosphère pendant les deux dernières décennies (1980-2000). Cette recherche est dédiée à la quantification des changements à long terme de la structure thermique et dynamique de la stratosphère et à l'attribution des causes des changements observés, et en particulier l'effet de la diminution de l'ozone stratosphérique. Le travail a été mené pour les vingt dernières années, où des mesures globales de la stratosphère existent; les analyses effectuées ont été ensuite couplées avec des simulations GCM pour quantifier le rôle de la diminution de l'ozone sur les changements à long terme observés. Trois bases de données (températures mensuelles) résultant d'analyses de données satellitaires et/ou de radiosondages ont été considérées : la base TOVS/3I fournit une description de la basse stratosphère à haute résolution spatiale pour une période de 8 ans; la base FUB a une résolution spatiale moins bonne mais est disponible pour une période plus longue; enfin, la base SSU/MSU couvre les vingt dernières années et surtout la totalité de la stratosphère, mais avec une résolution verticale plus faible. Un modèle de régression linéaire multiparamétrique, qui permet de séparer l'effet de la variabilité naturelle de la tendance à long terme, a été utilisé. Dans un premier temps, une analyse détaillée de l'impact des différents facteurs de variabilité de la température stratosphérique été réalisée. Les forçages considérés sont: l'Oscillation Quasi-Biennale (QBO), l'ENSO, la variabilité de 11 ans associée au cycle solaire, et le mode de variabilité extratropicale connu sous le nom d'Oscillation Arctique (AO). Nous montrons tout d'abord que l'amplitude de la réponse de la température à ces forçages peut être du même ordre de grandeur que les tendances calculées. Ensuite, les tendances de la température sont décrites en fonction de l'altitude, de la latitude et de la saison; elles montrent un refroidissement général de la stratosphère, avec une amplitude maximale en moyenne globale dans la haute stratosphère de l'hémisphère nord (de l'ordre de 3 K/décennie); le refroidissement se réduit dans la moyenne stratosphère pour atteindre 1 K/décennie en moyenne globale dans la basse stratosphère (mais avec une structure fortement dépendante de la latitude). L'analyse des températures nous permet aussi de mettre en évidence, de façon indirecte, un affaiblissement de la circulation moyenne de la stratosphère. Pour étudier le rôle de la diminution d'ozone stratosphérique sur les champs dynamiques et thermiques, nous avons enfin considéré deux ensembles de simulations GCM de type « transitoire »; en entrée des simulations, le premier ensemble considère les conditions prévalant avant la diminution de l'ozone, alors que le deuxième inclut les tendances d'ozone observées en moyenne zonale et mensuelle (dite « simulation ozone »). Les tendances de température simulées ont été comparées entre elles. Les résultats indiquent que la diminution de l'ozone stratosphérique est responsable du refroidissement observé à hauteur de 60% dans la haute stratosphère et de 30% dans la basse stratosphère. Si le refroidissement de la haute et moyenne stratosphère est bien reproduit par les simulations ozone, dans la basse stratosphère il est sous-estimé, très probablement à cause de l'effet des tendances de vapeur d'eau, qui n'ont pas été prises en compte dans les simulations. Le refroidissement pendant le printemps Arctique dans la basse stratosphère est observé, mais non complètement reproduit. Enfin, les simulations ozone indiquent une modification dans l'activité des ondes qui se propagent dans la basse stratosphère, observée à travers l'étude de la composante verticale du flux d'Eliassen-Palm.

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop and evaluate techniques for improvement of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin in the U.S. Southwest. Three techniques are investigated. The first technique is an investigation of the effects of the El Ni??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and the resulting streamflow at a monthly time scale, using data from 1952 to 1999 (WY). It was seen that the effects of ENSO on temperature and precipitation were confined to certain months, predominantly at the beginning and end of the winter season, and that the effect of these modulations of temperature and precipitation by ENSO can be seen in the magnitude and time variation of SWE and streamflow. The second part is a comparison of the use for snowmelt-runoff modeling of the newly available snowcover product based on imagery from the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with the long-time standard snowcover product from the National Hydrological Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). This comparison is made using the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in two watersheds located inside the URG basin. This comparison is important because the MODIS snowcover product could greatly improve the availability of snowcover information because of its high spatial (500m) and temporal (daily) resolutions and extensive (global) coverage. Based on the results of this comparison, the MODIS snowcover product gives comparable snowcover information compared to that from NOHRSC. The final part is an investigation of streamflow forecasting using mass-balance models. Two watersheds used in the comparison of MODIS and NOHRSC snowcover products were again used. The parameters of the mass-balance models are obtained in two different ways and streamflow forecasts are made on January 1st, February 1st, March 1st and April 1st. The first means of parameter estimation is to use the parameter values from 1990 to 2001 SRM streamflow simulations and the second means is by optimization. The results of this investigation show that mass-balance models show potential to improve the long-term streamflow forecasts in snowmelt-dominated watersheds if dependable precipitation forecasts can be provided.