This dissertation describes the development and analysis of a new forest dynamics model. The NORTHern Woodland Dynamics Simulator (NORTHWDS) was designed to spatially model forest pattern and process for the northern Lake States, and to incorporate multiple spatial scales. While ecologically detailed, this stand table-based model is sufficiently parsimonious to be able to simulate 100s to 1000s of hectares for centuries. Processes like tree regeneration, growth, and mortality, herbaceous and shrubby competition, biogeochemistry, carbon cycling, edge effects, and climatic influences are incorporated in NORTHWDS. Wind disturbance and white-tailed deer browsing were also included to help forecast stand and landscape dynamics under managed and unmanaged scenarios. Preliminary results suggest that NORTHWDS can reliably predict long-term forest ecosystem responses to succession and disturbance. NORTHWDS was also applied to test the effectiveness of a managing-for-old-growth strategy, with results indicating that this type of management can provide improvements over traditional even- and uneven-aged harvest systems in desirable old-growth attributes like aboveground live biomass and coarse woody debris patterns. The results of the NORTHWDS developmental and application chapters were then synthesized to produce a new conceptual approach to landscape simulation that incorporated space, multiple scales, and a hierarchical design. A user's guide, the source code, and model defaults complete this dissertation.

Mississippi River affects the carbon dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico (N-GoM) significantly. Hence, total alkalinity (TA) algorithms developed for major ocean basins produce inaccurate estimations for this region. A TA algorithm was developed, which addresses the local effects of coastal processes and complex spatial influences. In-situ data collected during numerous previous research cruises in the N-GoM were compiled and used to calculate the efficiency of an existing TA algorithm that uses Sea-Surface-Temperature (SST) and Sea-Surface-Salinity (SSS) as explanatory variables. To improve this algorithm, statistical analyses were performed to improve the coefficients and functional form of this algorithm. Then, chlorophyll-a (Chla) was included as an additional explanatory variable. Chla worked as a proxy for addressing the organic carbon pump’s pronounced effects on coastal waters. Finally, a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) algorithm was developed to address spatial non-stationarity, which apparently could not be addressed in the previously developed global algorithm.

No description available.

No description available.

Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus is a vector-borne virus amplified by the Culiseta melanura mosquito in an enzootic avian cycle, causing high morbidity and mortality to horses and humans when contracted as incidental hosts. The virus is distributed across most of the eastern United States, Canada, and Gulf coast, and has been expanding in geographic range and season of activity over time. Spatial-temporal trends in Cs. melanura abundance were correlated with available meteorological (temperature and precipitation) and remotely sensed environmental data for the period of 1997-2012 in Connecticut. The effects of inter-annual changes in precipitation, temperature, and groundwater levels on Cs. melanura abundances using time-series linear regression and cross-correlation analyses were inconclusive. Habitat modeling using logistic regression and landscape-based predictive variables demonstrated strong efficiency (46.2%) and acceptable sensitivity and specificity (65.6 and 78.6%, respectively) using NDVI difference and distance from palustrine areas as predictive factors. Remotely sensed data can improve the understanding of vector abundance patterns, helping to forecast future outbreaks and regional expansions by guiding surveillance efforts.

A fundamental knowledge gap in understanding land-atmosphere interactions is accurate, high-resolution soil properties. Remote sensing and spatial modeling techniques can bridge the gap between site-specific soil properties and landscape variability, thereby improving predictions of soil attributes. Three studies were completed to advance soil prediction models in semiarid areas. The first study developed a soil pre-mapping technique using automated image segmentation that utilized soil-landscape relationships and surface reflectance to produce an effective map unit design in a 160,000 ha soil survey area. Overall classification accuracy of soil taxonomic units at the suborder was 58 % after including soil temperature regime. Physical soil properties were not significantly different for individual transects; however, properties were significantly different between soil pre-map units when soils from the entire study area were compared. Other studies used a raster approach to predict physical soil properties at a 5 m spatial resolution for a 6,265 ha area using digital soil mapping. The second study utilized remotely-sensed auxiliary data to develop a sampling design and compared three geostatistical techniques for predicting surface soil properties. Ordinary kriging had the smallest prediction error; however, regression kriging preserved landscape features present in the study area and demonstrated the potential of this technique for quantifying variability of soil components within soil map units. The third study applied quantitative data from soil prediction models in study 2 and additional models of subsurface properties to a pedotransfer function for predicting hydraulic soil parameters at the landscape scale. Saturated hydraulic conductivity and water retention parameters were used to predict water residence times for loss to gravity and evapotranspiration across the landscape. High water residence time for gravitational water corresponded to both low drainage density and high clay content, whereas high residence of plant available water was related to increased vegetation response. These studies illustrate the utility of digital soil mapping techniques for improving soil information at landscape scales, while reducing required resources. Resulting soil information is useful for quantifying landscape-scale processes that require constraint of spatial variability and prediction error of soil properties to better model hydrological and ecological responses to climate and land use change.

The incidence of adverse birth outcomes, such as low birth weight and preterm births, has steadily risen in recent years in Canada. Despite the fact that numerous individual and neighbourhood risk factors for low birth weight and preterm births have been identified and various person-oriented intervention strategies have been implemented, uncertainties still exist concerning the role that place and space play in determining adverse birth outcomes. In order to succeed in producing community-oriented health policy and planning guidelines to reduce both the occurrence and inequalities of adverse birth outcomes, the research presented in this thesis provides an approach to examining the pathways of various socio-economic, environmental, and psycho-social risks to LBW and preterm births. Using a modified multilevel binary-outcome mediational analysis method, case studies are conducted within three public health units in Ontario, namely the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit, the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit, and the Halton Region Health Unit. Different pathways are investigated given the available data and the theoretical assumptions of three health inequality pathway models, namely the behavioural model, the psycho-social model, and the materialist model, and the geographical and planning perspectives of health inequalities. A local spatial analysis process is also used to identify spatial clusters of incidence and to assess possible associated reasons in order to support public health polices and planning in community-oriented health interventions. Using Bayesian spatial hierarchical analysis and spatial clustering analysis, local clustering of high risks of adverse birth outcomes and spatial variations of associated individual risks within the study areas are identified. The analysis is framed around five hypotheses that examine personal vs. spatial, compositional vs. contextual, psycho-social vs. material, personal vs. cultural, and global vs. local effects on the determinants of adverse birth outcomes. The results of testing these hypotheses provide evidence to assist with multi-component multi-level community-oriented interventions. Possible improvements of current prenatal care policies and programs to reduce the spatial and social inequalities of adverse birth outcomes are suggested. Potential improvements, including early stage prenatal health education, local healthy food provision, and cross-sector interventions such as the combination of social mixing strategies with bottom-up community-based health promotion programs, are also suggested.

The incidence of adverse birth outcomes, such as low birth weight and preterm births, has steadily risen in recent years in Canada. Despite the fact that numerous individual and neighbourhood risk factors for low birth weight and preterm births have been identified and various person-oriented intervention strategies have been implemented, uncertainties still exist concerning the role that place and space play in determining adverse birth outcomes. In order to succeed in producing community-oriented health policy and planning guidelines to reduce both the occurrence and inequalities of adverse birth outcomes, the research presented in this thesis provides an approach to examining the pathways of various socio-economic, environmental, and psycho-social risks to LBW and preterm births. Using a modified multilevel binary-outcome mediational analysis method, case studies are conducted within three public health units in Ontario, namely the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit, the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit, and the Halton Region Health Unit. Different pathways are investigated given the available data and the theoretical assumptions of three health inequality pathway models, namely the behavioural model, the psycho-social model, and the materialist model, and the geographical and planning perspectives of health inequalities. A local spatial analysis process is also used to identify spatial clusters of incidence and to assess possible associated reasons in order to support public health polices and planning in community-oriented health interventions. Using Bayesian spatial hierarchical analysis and spatial clustering analysis, local clustering of high risks of adverse birth outcomes and spatial variations of associated individual risks within the study areas are identified. The analysis is framed around five hypotheses that examine personal vs. spatial, compositional vs. contextual, psycho-social vs. material, personal vs. cultural, and global vs. local effects on the determinants of adverse birth outcomes. The results of testing these hypotheses provide evidence to assist with multi-component multi-level community-oriented interventions. Possible improvements of current prenatal care policies and programs to reduce the spatial and social inequalities of adverse birth outcomes are suggested. Potential improvements, including early stage prenatal health education, local healthy food provision, and cross-sector interventions such as the combination of social mixing strategies with bottom-up community-based health promotion programs, are also suggested.

The acidification of soils has been a continuous process since at least the beginning of the 20th century. Therefore, an inquiry of how and when the soil pH levels have changed is relevant to gain better understanding of this process. The aim of this thesis is to study the average national soil pH level over time in Sweden and the local spatial differences within Sweden over time. With data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, soil pH surfaces are estimated for each surveyed year together with the national average soil pH using a generalized additive modeling approach with one model for each pair of consecutive years. A decreasing trend in average national level soil pH was found together with some very weak evidence of year-to-year differences in the spatial structure of soil pH.

Submitted by Alison Vanceto (alison-vanceto@hotmail.com) on 2017-05-11T12:27:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseFNS.pdf: 11547126 bytes, checksum: 3919304caf65adc15eed04f10ff62397 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-05-18T20:25:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseFNS.pdf: 11547126 bytes, checksum: 3919304caf65adc15eed04f10ff62397 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-05-18T20:25:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseFNS.pdf: 11547126 bytes, checksum: 3919304caf65adc15eed04f10ff62397 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-23T17:28:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseFNS.pdf: 11547126 bytes, checksum: 3919304caf65adc15eed04f10ff62397 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Urban area growth intensification process of São Carlos’s county has been quickly rising over the years and without helpful elements on planning and management of these areas, leading changes on spatial dynamic, and significant changes on environmental conditioning and consequently in natural landscape. This work aims an historical and temporal construction of land’s use and occupation through an analysis during a period of 30 years by means of LANDSAT satellite images 4, 5, 7 e 8 with the sensors MMS, TM, TM+ e OLI, concomitantly was build through these analysis a little perspective of future sceneries for the years of 2020 and 2030 through the DINAMICA EGO’s software, totalizing a period of 50 years of study about urban area growth process. The tesis, based on obtained data of 1980, 1990, 2000 e 2010, had demonstrated the area situation on this time period and immediate surroundings of the city regarding land’s use and occupation, divided in 5 classes of use, being them, exposed soil, agricultural area, vegetation, urban area and hydrography, by means of informations’ classification and visual interpretation. Were developed thematic cards that will help on the provided scenarios build and the future frames in a little period of time. The results point out that, like the population rises, vehicles rise and consequently generating environmental’s degradation and impacts almost irreversible due to intense occupation form. Another important factor is the pressure above natural resources, especially vegetation and water resources. The historical approach and the modeling process of spatial information with a provided view of future scenarios provides subsidies to understand the land’s use transformation, like the hydrography sub basin’s occupation, floods, urban water drain, lost of vegetation and waterproofing increase, generating this way a technical device for future interventions and decision-making of local public power. / A intensificação do processo de crescimento da área urbana do Município de São Carlos vem ao longo dos anos aumentando de forma rápida e sem elementos que auxiliem no planejamento e gestão dessas áreas, acarretando mudanças na dinâmica espacial, e alterações significativas nos condicionantes ambientais e consequentemente na paisagem natural. O trabalho objetivou uma construção histórica e temporal do uso e ocupação da terra através de uma análise durante um período de 30 anos por meio das imagens do satélite LANDSAT 4, 5, 7 e 8 com os sensores MMS, TM, TM+ e OLI, concomitantemente foi construído através dessas análises uma perspectiva de cenários futuros para os anos de 2020 e 2030 através do software DINAMICA EGO, totalizando um período de 50 anos de estudos sobre o processo de crescimento da área urbanizada. A tese, com base nos dados obtidos de 1980, 1990, 2000 e 2010, demonstrou a situação da área neste período e no entorno imediato do Município no que concerne ao uso e ocupação da terra, divididos em cinco classes de uso, sendo elas, solo exposto, área agrícola, vegetação, área urbanizada e hidrografia, por meio da classificação e interpretação visual das informações. Foram geradas cartas temáticas que auxiliaram na construção dos cenários previstos e dos quadros futuros apresentados em um curto período de tempo. Os resultados apontam que, a área urbanizada do município teve um aumento significativo durante o período de análise do trabalho, assim como o aumento populacional, aumento de veículos e consequentemente gerando degradação ambiental e impactos ambientais quase que irreversível devido à intensa forma de ocupação. Outro fator preponderante é a pressão sobre os recursos naturais, principalmente vegetação e recursos hídricos. A abordagem histórica e o processo de modelagem das informações espaciais com vista à previsão de cenários futuros fornece subsídios para compreender as transformações no uso da terra, como a ocupação de sub-bacias hidrográficas, inundações, drenagem urbana, perda de vegetação e aumento da área impermeabilizada, gerando desta maneira um artificio técnico para futuras intervenções e tomada de decisões pelo poder público local.