The purpose of this study is to investigate the usefulness of statistical decomposition measures in the prediction of industrial bond rating changes. Further, the predictive ability of decomposition measures is compared with multiple discriminant analysis on the same sample. The problem of this study is twofold. It stems in general from the statistical problems associated with current techniques employed in the study of bond ratings and in particular from the lack of attention to the study of bond rating changes. Two main hypotheses are tested in this study. The first is that bond rating changes can be predicted through the use of financial statement data. The second is that decomposition analysis can achieve the same performance as multiple discriminant analysis in duplicating and predicting industrial bond rating changes. To explain and predict industrial bond rating changes, statistical decomposition measures were computed for each company in the sample. Based on these decomposition measures, the two types of analyses performed were (a) a univariate analysis where each decomposition measure was compared with an industry average decomposition measure, and (b) a multivariate analysis where decomposition measures were used as independent variables in a probability linear model. In addition to statistical decomposition analysis, multiple discriminant analysis was used in duplicating and predicting bond rating changes. Finally, a comparison was made between the predictive abilities of decomposition analysis and discriminant analysis.

Why do girls and boys perform differently in school? In this paper, we examine the gender gap in educational achievement for Language and Mathematics using a novel dataset of 10,000 students in the Public School System of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The broad set of available information allows us to test the relative importance of skills and incentives to schooling on the educational outcomes of boys and girls. We summarize a unique socioemotional profile of boys and girls in Brazil and find significant gender differences in skills and incentives to schooling. Performing a decomposition exercise, we find that the gender gap in educational outcomes is significantly explained by differences in the levels of observed inputs, especially incentives to schooling. We bring new evidence on the importance of incentives to schooling in explaining the gender differences in both classroom grades in standardized test scores. / Por que meninas e meninos têm desempenhos diferentes na escola? Nesta pesquisa, vamos examinar as disparidades de gênero no desempenho escolar em Linguagem e Matemática utilizando um novo conjunto de dados de 10.000 alunos do Sistema Público de Ensino de São Paulo, Brasil. O amplo conjunto de informações disponíveis nos permite testar a importância relativa das competências socioemocionais e incentivos à educação sobre os resultados educacionais de meninos e meninas. Nós traçamos um perfil socioemocional único de meninos e meninas no Brasil e encontramos diferenças de gênero significativas nas habilidades e incentivos à educação. Realizando um exercício de decomposição, descobrimos que a diferença de gênero nos resultados educacionais é significativamente explicada pelas diferenças nos níveis de insumos observados, especialmente incentivos à educação. Ainda, encontramos novas evidências sobre a importância dos incentivos à educação para explicar as diferenças de gênero em notas de sala de aula e resultados de testes padronizados.

Why do girls and boys perform differently in school? In this paper, we examine the gender gap in educational achievement for Language and Mathematics using a novel dataset of 10,000 students in the Public School System of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The broad set of available information allows us to test the relative importance of skills and incentives to schooling on the educational outcomes of boys and girls. We summarize a unique socioemotional profile of boys and girls in Brazil and find significant gender differences in skills and incentives to schooling. Performing a decomposition exercise, we find that the gender gap in educational outcomes is significantly explained by differences in the levels of observed inputs, especially incentives to schooling. We bring new evidence on the importance of incentives to schooling in explaining the gender differences in both classroom grades in standardized test scores. / Por que meninas e meninos têm desempenhos diferentes na escola? Nesta pesquisa, vamos examinar as disparidades de gênero no desempenho escolar em Linguagem e Matemática utilizando um novo conjunto de dados de 10.000 alunos do Sistema Público de Ensino de São Paulo, Brasil. O amplo conjunto de informações disponíveis nos permite testar a importância relativa das competências socioemocionais e incentivos à educação sobre os resultados educacionais de meninos e meninas. Nós traçamos um perfil socioemocional único de meninos e meninas no Brasil e encontramos diferenças de gênero significativas nas habilidades e incentivos à educação. Realizando um exercício de decomposição, descobrimos que a diferença de gênero nos resultados educacionais é significativamente explicada pelas diferenças nos níveis de insumos observados, especialmente incentivos à educação. Ainda, encontramos novas evidências sobre a importância dos incentivos à educação para explicar as diferenças de gênero em notas de sala de aula e resultados de testes padronizados.