We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an increasing coupling of N (N >= 2) synchronous dynamics on S-Zd (PCA). Increasing means the coupling preserves stochastic ordering. We first present our main construction theorem in the case where S is totally ordered; applications to attractive PCAs are given. When S is only partially ordered, we show on two examples that a coupling of more than two synchronous dynamics may not exist. We also prove an extension of our main result for a particular class of partially ordered spaces.

abstract: Recently, the location of the nodes in wireless networks has been modeled as point processes. In this dissertation, various scenarios of wireless communications in large-scale networks modeled as point processes are considered. The first part of the dissertation considers signal reception and detection problems with symmetric alpha stable noise which is from an interfering network modeled as a Poisson point process. For the signal reception problem, the performance of space-time coding (STC) over fading channels with alpha stable noise is studied. We derive pairwise error probability (PEP) of orthogonal STCs. For general STCs, we propose a maximum-likelihood (ML) receiver, and its approximation. The resulting asymptotically optimal receiver (AOR) does not depend on noise parameters and is computationally simple, and close to the ML performance. Then, signal detection in coexisting wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is considered. We define a binary hypothesis testing problem for the signal detection in coexisting WSNs. For the problem, we introduce the ML detector and simpler alternatives. The proposed mixed-fractional lower order moment (FLOM) detector is computationally simple and close to the ML performance. Stochastic orders are binary relations defined on probability. The second part of the dissertation introduces stochastic ordering of interferences in large-scale networks modeled as point processes. Since closed-form results for the interference distributions for such networks are only available in limited cases, it is of interest to compare network interferences using stochastic. In this dissertation, conditions on the fading distribution and path-loss model are given to establish stochastic ordering between interferences. Moreover, Laplace functional (LF) ordering is defined between point processes and applied for comparing interference. Then, the LF orderings of general classes of point processes are introduced. It is also shown that the LF ordering is preserved when independent operations such as marking, thinning, random translation, and superposition are applied. The LF ordering of point processes is a useful tool for comparing spatial deployments of wireless networks and can be used to establish comparisons of several performance metrics such as coverage probability, achievable rate, and resource allocation even when closed form expressions for such metrics are unavailable. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Electrical Engineering 2014

International Telemetering Conference Proceedings / October 18-21, 2004 / Town & Country Resort, San Diego, California / Powered by single-segment switched interconnection, Ethernet can be used in time-critical data acquisition applications. Unlike synchronous time division multiple access, asynchronous packet streams result in congestions and uncertain multiplexing delays. With the delay analysis in the worst case and probabilistic guaranteeing conditions, we restrict the packet-sizes, intervals or traffic burstiness a priori to regulate delay deviations within acceptable scales. Some methods of combinatorics and stochastic theory, e.g. Cumulant Generating Function and the Large Deviation Principle, are used and verified by some simulation-based computations. The influence of time varying delay for telemetry applications is also discussed in some sense.

The eCommerce industry introduced new business principles, as well as new strategies for achieving these principles, and as a result some traditional measures of success are no longer valid. We classified and ranked the performance of twenty business-to-consumer eCommerce companies by developing critical benchmarks using the Balanced scorecard methodology. We applied a Latent class model, a statistical model along the Bayesian framework, to facilitate the determination of the best and worst performing companies. An eCommerce site's greatest asset is its customers, which is why some of the most valued and sophisticated metrics used today evolve around customer behavior. The results from our classification and ranking procedure showed that companies that ranked high overall also ranked comparatively well in the customer analysis ranking, For example, Amazon.com, one of the highest rated eCommerce companies with a large customer base ranked second in the critical benchmark developed towards measuring customer analysis. The results from our simulation also showed that the Latent class model is a good fit for the classification procedure, and it has a high classification rate for the worst and best performing companies. The resulting work offers a practical tool with the ability to identify profitable investment opportunities for financial managers and analysts.

We first introduce some coupling of a finite number of Probabilistic Cellular Automata dynamics (PCA), preserving the stochastic ordering. Using this tool, for a general attractive probabilistic cellular automata on SZd, where S is finite, we prove that a condition (A) is equivalent to the (time-) convergence towards equilibrium of this Markovian parallel dynamics, in the uniform norm, exponentially fast. This condition (A) means the exponential decay of the influence from the boundary for the invariant measures of the system restricted to finite ‘box’-volume. For a class of reversible PCA dynamics on {−1, +1}Zd / with a naturally associated Gibbsian potential ϕ, we prove that a Weak Mixing condition for ϕ implies the validity of the assumption (A); thus the ‘exponential ergodicity’ of the dynamics towards the unique Gibbs measure associated to ϕ holds. On some particular examples of this PCA class, we verify that our assumption (A) is weaker than the Dobrushin-Vasershtein ergodicity condition. For some special PCA, the ‘exponential ergodicity’ holds as soon as there is no phase transition.

We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an increasing coupling of N (N >= 2) synchronous dynamics on S-Zd (PCA). Increasing means the coupling preserves stochastic ordering. We first present our main construction theorem in the case where S is totally ordered; applications to attractive PCAs are given. When S is only partially ordered, we show on two examples that a coupling of more than two synchronous dynamics may not exist. We also prove an extension of our main result for a particular class of partially ordered spaces.

In our daily life, we often experience waiting in a queue to receive some kind of service. Some customers do not join the queue at the end like other normal customers, and try to cut in the queue hoping to have a shorter waiting time and a higher level of satisfaction. This behaviour is called customer interjection. Some of these customers only try to cut in queue, while some others try to find excuses for interjection. For instance, the first-come-first-served (FCFS) service discipline is usually assumed in public places like restaurants, banks, airports, and supermarkets. However, customer interjections can still be seen in these places. In telecommunications networks, to test the efficiency of transmission, artificial packages are inserted into the normal traffic in a random manner. These interjections can affect the waiting time of other customers in queue. Such interjections may reduce the waiting time of interjecting customers, but increase the waiting time and dissatisfaction of others. In this work, an M/M/1 queueing system with customer interjection is investigated. The arrival of customers to the system is assumed to be a Poisson process with arrival rate . The service times for customers are independent and identically distributed random variables with an exponential distribution with rate . Customers are dispersed into normal customers and interjecting customers. A normal customer joins the queue at the end, and an interjecting customer tries to cut in the queue and occupy a position as close to the head of the queue as possible. Two parameters are introduced to describe the interjection behaviour: the percentage of customers interjecting and the tolerance level of interjection by individual customers who are already waiting in the queue. Using matrix-analytic methods and stochastic comparison methods, the waiting times of normal customers and interjecting customers are being studied. The impacts of the two parameters on the waiting times are analyzed in detail, and the implications of the results are discussed with numerical examples. It is found that the waiting times are sensitive to the tolerance level of interjection by individual customers. It is also found that eliminating customer interjection would be always beneficial to normal customers and arbitrary customers though it would not always be so for interjecting customers.

The reliability and quality of suppliers' components are inevitably two factors that impact the performance of the supply chain. Stochastic reliability affects the final production quantity and hence makes it more difficult to predict the manufacturer's best ordering quantity as opposed to the simpler traditional news vendor model. In addition, the quality of suppliers' products directly influence the potential demand in the market. Hence every firm in the supply chain system faces the needs to invest time, money and effort to improve the product quality even though it may bring a higher production and investment cost. Thus our dissertation is divided into two parts. In the first part, we build a model for a two echelon supply chain system in which a single manufacturer sells his product to a market with stochastic demand. A group of suppliers provide essential components for the manufacturer. They may be: 1) homogeneous component suppliers, 2) complementary component suppliers or 3) divided into subgroups, suppliers in the same subgroup provide the same component while the components from different subgroups are assembled in the final product. The fraction of effective component ordered from each supplier is a random variable. We first analyze the manufacturer's optimal ordering quantity decision. We identify several important properties of the optimal decision. Then based on those properties, we devise optimal solution procedures and heuristic methods for the above three systems. Finally, in the case of Bernoulli reliability, we investigate the suppliers' price competition by non-cooperative game theory. In the second part, we model a two echelon assembly system which faces deterministic demand affected by the market price and quality of the product. Therefore, the decisions of the firms are divided into two stages: in the first stage, they decide on how much effort to invest in the quality of the components or the final product to stimulate the market. They may make decisions simultaneously or sequentially. Then after the efforts are invested, in the second stage, the component suppliers first decide on their components' wholesale price and then the manufacture decides on the market price given the wholesale price. We identify the existence of Nash equilibrium in each stage through potential functions. Moreover, in the first stage decision, we find that the competition with a leader can always benefit the whole system compared with simultaneous competition. / Ph. D.

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les problèmes d'incertitudes dans les modèles probabilistes et tentons de déterminer leur impact sur l'analyse de performances et le dimensionnement des systèmes. Nous considérons deux aspects du problème d'imprécision. Le premier, consiste à étudier des chaînes en temps discret dont les probabilités ou taux de transition ne sont pas parfaitement connus. Nous construisons de nouveaux algorithmes de calcul de bornes par éléments sur les vecteurs de distribution stationnaires de chaînes partiellement spécifiées. Ces algorithmes permettent de déterminer des bornes par élément à chaque étape de calcul. Le second aspect étudié concerne le problème de mesures de traces de trafic réelles dans les réseaux. Souvent très volumineuses, la modélisation des traces de trafic est généralement impossible à effectuer de façon suffisamment précise et l'adéquation avec une loi de probabilité connue n'est pas assez réaliste. Utilisant une description par histogramme du trafic, nous proposons d'appliquer une nouvelle méthode d’évaluation de performance des réseaux. Fondée sur la comparaison stochastique pour construire des bornes optimales de supports réduits des histogrammes de trafics et sur la notion de monotonie stochastique des éléments de réseau, cette méthode permet de définir, de manière très pertinente, des garanties sur les mesures de performance. Nous obtenons en effet des bornes stochastiques supérieures et inférieures sur la longueur du tampon, les pertes, etc. L'intérêt et l'impact de notre méthode sont présentés sur diverses applications : éléments de réseau, AQM, réseaux de files d'attente, file avec processus d'arrivée non-stationnaire, etc / This thesis is devoted to the uncertainty in probabilistic models, how it impacts their analysis and how to apply these methods to performance analysis and network dimensioning. We consider two aspects of the uncertainty. The first consists to study a partially specified Markov chains. The missing of some transitions in the exact system because of its complexity can be solved by constructing bounding systems where worst-case transitions are defined to obtain an upper or a lower bound on the performance measures. We propose to develop new algorithms which give element-wise bounds of the steady-state distribution for the partially specified Markov chain. These algorithms are faster than the existing ones and allow us to compute element-wise bounds at each iteration.The second aspect studied concerns the problem of the measurements of real traffic trace in networks. Exact analysis of queueing networks under real traffic becomes quickly intractable due to the state explosion. Assuming the stationarity of flows, we propose to apply the stochastic comparison method to derive performance measure bounds under histogram-based traffics. We apply an algorithm based on dynamic programming to derive optimal bounding traffic histograms on reduced state spaces. Using the stochastic bound histograms and the monotonicity of the networking elements, we show how we can obtain, in a very efficient manner, guarantees on performance measures. We indeed obtain stochastic upper and lower bounds on buffer occupancy, losses, etc. The interest and the impact of our method are shown on various applications: elements of networks, AQM, queueing networks and queue with non-stationary arrival process

Η παρούσα διατριβή εκπονήθηκε με σκοπό να γενικεύσει το πρόβλημα του ελέγχου υποθέσεων που εμπεριέχουν στοχαστική διάταξη στα πλαίσια της Μη Παραμετρικής Στατιστικής. Για τον σκοπό αυτό μελετήθηκε η σχετική βιβλιογραφία, εξετάσθηκε η ορολογία, οι ήδη υπάρχοντες ορισμοί και οι σχετικές προταθείσες μέθοδοι και ακολούθως έγινε προσπάθεια γενίκευσης του προαναφερθέντος προβλήματος. Η έρευνα αυτή απέδωσε δύο ομάδες αποτελεσμάτων. Στην πρώτη, ορίσθηκε μια νέα ολική διάταξη (XFO) σε κάθε σύνολο ασαφών αριθμών που έχουν διαφορετικές κορυφές οι οποίες σχηματίζουν συμπαγές υποσύνολο του ℝ. Η ασαφής αυτή διάταξη αποδίδει την σύγκριση των ασαφών αριθμών με ένα ασαφές μέτρο αναγκαιότητας και με το δυϊκό του μέτρο δυνατότητας. Η σύγκριση αυτής της μεθόδου με την πλέον αναγνωρισμένη αντίστοιχη μέθοδο διάταξης ασαφών αριθμών απέδειξε ότι η εισαχθείσα μέθοδος XFO είναι πιο κοντά στην αρχική μας εκτίμηση για την διάταξη και ανταποκρίνεται πιο αισιόδοξα. Στην δεύτερη ομάδα αποτελεσμάτων εισάγεται η έννοια της στοχαστικής διάταξης ασαφών τυχαίων μεταβλητών, με σύντηξη των ακολούθων εννοιών: α) της στοχαστικής διάταξης, β) της ανωτέρω ασαφούς διάταξης και γ) της εισαγόμενης έννοιας της ασαφούς συνάρτησης κατανομής. Ο ορισμός της στοχαστικής διάταξης δίδεται σε αρμονία με την μέθοδο XFO, αφού και οι δύο έχουν τις ρίζες τους στην ίδια διάταξη κλειστών διαστημάτων που εισάγεται αρχικά στην εργασία, μπορεί δε να θεωρηθεί η ασαφής στοχαστική διάταξη ως επέκταση της XFO. Η δεύτερη αυτή ομάδα περιλαμβάνει ένα εισαγόμενο για πρώτη φορά τρόπο ορισμού Ασαφών Υποθέσεων που περιέχουν στοχαστική διάταξη ασαφών τυχαίων μεταβλητών. Αυτό έχει αποτέλεσμα να βαθμολογείται θετικά μόνο η μία εκ των δύο ασαφών υποθέσεων, ασαφούς μηδενικής και ασαφούς εναλλακτικής, διευκολύνοντας έτσι την λήψη αποφάσεων. Προτείνεται διαδικασία ασαφούς ελέγχου που πιστοποιεί οποιαδήποτε ενυπάρχουσα στοχαστική διάταξη δύο ασαφών τυχαίων δειγμάτων, συμβατή με τον ορισμό, η οποία αντιστοιχεί θετικές τιμές αλήθειας μόνον στην αποδεκτή υπόθεση και μηδέν στην απορριπτόμενη. Τα αποτελέσματα του ελέγχου εκφράζονται με την βοήθεια δύο μέτρων αναγκαιότητας. Η μείζων συνεισφορά της προτεινόμενης ασαφούς διαδικασίας ελέγχου ασαφών υποθέσεων, που αναφέρονται σε στοχαστική διάταξη ασαφών τυχαίων μεταβλητών, είναι ότι παρέχει εργαλείο μετασχηματισμού του προβλήματος σε ένα περιορισμένο αριθμό ελέγχων κλασσικών υποθέσεων της μη Παραμετρικής Στατιστικής. Με τον τρόπο αυτό μπορούμε να συμβάλουμε στην επίλυση τέτοιων προβλημάτων ασαφών ελέγχων τόσο θεωρητικών ζητημάτων στοχαστικής διάταξης ασαφών τυχαίων μεταβλητών όσο και ενός αριθμού πρακτικών προβλημάτων, όπως της ασαφούς αξιολόγησης εξεταζομένων. / This dissertation has been carried out in order to extend the problem of testing hypotheses on stochastic orderings, with methods based on ranks. This study provides two sets of related results. In the first set of results we introduce a novel linear order, the “extended fuzzy order” (XFO), on every subset of F(ℝ), the members of which must have their modal values all different and form a compact subset of ℝ. A distinct new feature is that our linear determined procedure employs the corresponding order of a class interval associated with a confidence measure which assigns a necessity measure value on every comparison . This new XFO method measures the ordering of any two fuzzy numbers with a possibility and a necessity measure, a feature that makes the method relevant for processing of fuzzy statistical data. These fuzzy measures are compared with the widely accepted PD and NSD indices of D. Dubois and H. Prade. The comparison proves that our possibility and necessity measures are more optimistic and comply better with our intuition. In the second set of results it is investigated the fuzzy extension of hypotheses testing using non parametric methods based on ranks. To achieve this, the notion of fuzzy distribution function is introduced in a practical manner, which is proved to be equivalent to the known notion of Kruse and Mayer. The stochastic ordering of two fuzzy random samples is defined in a fusion of the notion of stochastic ordering, fuzzy distribution function and XFO method. A novel definition of fuzzy hypotheses related to a potential fuzzy stochastic order between two fuzzy random samples is given in a new manner so that the null and its alternative hypotheses do not overlap. Consequently, the method assigns positive possibility grades either to the null fuzzy hypothesis or to the its fuzzy alternative. This simplifies the fuzzy decision making, and moreover there is no need to defuzzify the results if a clear cut decision is required. A fuzzy statistical inference procedure of fuzzy hypotheses is proposed and it is carried out at a fuzzy significance level. The definition of a fuzzy critical value is required, which is carried out in a practical manner. The proposed method certifies any underlying stochastic fuzzy order between two fuzzy random samples giving grades of confidence to that. Two necessity measures are assigned to the rejection of the fuzzy null hypothesis in favor of its alternative. The first measures the necessity of the existence of any fuzzy stochastic ordering between the fuzzy random samples under examination. The second necessity measure expresses the confidence of the fuzzy null hypothesis rejection uniformly for all relevant α-cut levels. The main contribution of this thesis, as far as the second set of results is concerned, is that a problem of testing fuzzy hypotheses on stochastic orderings of fuzzy random variables at a fuzzy significance level, is transferred to a limited number of tests of classic hypotheses. These tests are carried out at a fuzzy significance level, and are processed with the application of the linear fuzzy ordering procedure XFO.