Orientador: Jose Roberto Sanches Mantovani / Resumo: Neste trabalho são propostos modelos matemáticos determinístico e estocástico de programação cônica de segunda ordem em coordenadas retangulares para o problema de fluxo de potência ótimo de geração e controle de potência reativa no sistemas elétricos de potência, considerando as minimização dos custos de geração de energia, perdas ativas da rede e emissão de poluentes no meio ambiente. Os modelos contemplam as principais características físicas e econômicas do problema estudado, assim como os limites operacionais do sistema elétrico. Os modelos são programados em linguagem AMPL e suas soluções são obtidas através do solver comercial CPLEX. Os sistemas testes IEEE30, IEEE118 e ACTIVSg200 são utilizados nas simulações computacionais dos modelos propostos. Os resultados obtidos pelo modelo determinístico desenvolvido são validados através de comparações com os resultados fornecidos pelo software MATPOWER , onde ambos consideram apenas a existência de gerações termoelétricas. No modelo estocástico utiliza-se a técnica de geração de cenários e considera-se um período de um ano (8760 horas), e geradores que utilizam fontes de geração renováveis e não renováveis. / Abstract: In this work we propose deterministic and stochastic mathematical models of second order conical programming in rectangular coordinates for the optimal power flow problem of reactive power generation and control in electric power systems, considering the minimization of energy generation costs, losses networks and emission of pollutants into the environment. The models contemplate the main physical and economic characteristics of the studied problem, as well as the operational limits of the electric system. The models are programmed in AMPL language and their solutions are obtained through the commercial solver CPLEX. The IEEE30, IEEE118 and ACTIVSg200 test systems are used in the computer simulations of the proposed models. The results obtained by the deterministic model developed are validated through comparisons with the results provided by the software MATPOWERR , where both consider only the existence of thermoelectric generations. The stochastic model uses the scenario generation technique and considers a period of one year (8760 hours), and generators using renewable and non-renewable generation sources. / Mestre

In view of the current situation of fluctuating high crude oil prices, it is now more important than ever for petroleum refineries to operate at an optimal level in the present dynamic global economy. Acknowledging the shortcomings of deterministic models, this work proposes a hybrid of stochastic programming formulations for an optimal midterm refinery planning that addresses three factors of uncertainties, namely price of crude oil and saleable products, product demand, and production yields. An explicit stochastic programming technique is utilized by employing compensating slack variables to account for violations of constraints in order to increase model tractability. Four approaches are considered to ensure both solution and model robustness: (1) the Markowitz’s mean–variance (MV) model to handle randomness in the objective coefficients of prices by minimizing variance of the expected value of the random coefficients; (2) the two-stage stochastic programming with fixed recourse approach via scenario analysis to model randomness in the right-hand side and left-hand side coefficients by minimizing the expected recourse penalty costs due to constraints’ violations; (3) incorporation of the MV model within the framework developed in Approach 2 to minimize both the expectation and variance of the recourse costs; and (4) reformulation of the model in Approach 3 by adopting mean-absolute deviation (MAD) as the risk metric imposed by the recourse costs for a novel application to the petroleum refining industry. A representative numerical example is illustrated with the resulting outcome of higher net profits and increased robustness in solutions proposed by the stochastic models.

Zero energy houses and (near) zero energy buildings are among the most ambitious targets of society moving towards an energy efficient built environment. The "zero" energy consumption is most often judged on a yearly basis and should thus be interpreted as yearly net zero energy. The fully self sustainable, i.e. off-grid, home poses a major challenge due to the dynamic nature of building load profiles, ambient weather condition and occupant needs. In current practice, the off-grid status is accomplishable only by relying on backup generators or utilizing a large energy storage system. The research develops a risk based holistic system design method to guarantee a match between onsite sustainable energy generation and energy demand of systems and occupants. Energy self-sufficiency is the essential constraint that drives the design process. It starts with information collection of occupants' need in terms of life style, risk perception, and budget planning. These inputs are stated as probabilistic risk constraints that are applied during design evolution. Risk expressions are developed based on the relationships between power unavailability criteria and "damages" as perceived by occupants. A power reliability assessment algorithm is developed to aggregate the system underperformance causes and estimate all possible power availability outcomes of an off-grid house design. Based on these foundations, the design problem of an off-grid house is formulated as a stochastic programming problem with probabilistic constraints. The results show that inherent risks in weather patterns dominate the risk level of off-grid houses if current power unavailability criteria are used. It is concluded that a realistic and economic design of an off-grid house can only be achieved after an appropriate design weather file is developed for risk conscious design methods. The second stage of the research deals with the potential risk mitigation when an intelligent energy management system is installed. A stochastic model based predictive controller is implemented to manage energy allocation to sub individual functions in the off-grid house during operation. The controller determines in real time the priority of energy consuming activities and functions. The re-evaluation of the risk indices show that the proposed controller helps occupants to reduce damages related to power unavailability, and increase thermal comfort performance of the house. The research provides a risk oriented view on the energy self-sufficiency of off-grid solar houses. Uncertainty analysis is used to verify the match between onsite sustainable energy supply and demand under dynamic ambient conditions in a manner that reveals the risks induced by the fact that new technologies may not perform as well as expected. Furthermore, taking occupants' needs based on their risk perception as constraints in design evolution provides better guarantees for right sized system design.

A load plan specifies how freight is routed through a linehaul terminal network operated by a less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier. Determining the design of the load plan is critical to effective operations of such carriers. This dissertation makes contributions in modeling and algorithm design for three problems in LTL load plan design: (1) Refined execution cost estimation. Existing load plan design models use approximations that ignore important facts such as the nonlinearity of transportation costs with respect to the number of trailers, and empty travel beyond what is required for trailer balance that results from driver rules. We develop models that more accurately capture key operations of LTL carriers and produce accurate operational execution costs estimates; (2) Dynamic load planning. Load plans are traditionally revised infrequently by LTL carriers due to the difficulty of solving the associated optimization problem. Technological advances have now enabled carriers to consider daily load plan updates. We develop technologies that efficiently and effectively adjust a nominal load plan for a given day based on the actual freight to be served by the carrier. We present an integer programming based local search procedure, and a greedy randomized adaptive search heuristic; and (3) Stochastic load plan design. Load plan design models commonly represent origin-destination freight volumes using average demands, which do not describe freight volume fluctuations. We investigate load plan design models that explicitly utilize information on freight volume uncertainty and design load plans that most cost-effectively deal with varying freight volumes and lead to the lowest expected cost. We present a Sample Average Approximation approach and a variant of the method for solving the stochastic integer programming formulations.

With the emerging nationwide availability of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) at prices attainable for many consumers, electric utilities, system operators, and researchers have been investigating the impact of this new source of electricity demand. The presence of PEVs on the electric grid might offer benefits equivalent to dedicated utility-scale energy storage systems by leveraging vehicles' grid-connected energy storage through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) enabled infrastructure. Existing research, however, has not effectively examined the interactions between PEVs and the electric grid in a V2G system. To address these shortcomings in the literature, longitudinal vehicle travel data are first used to identify patterns in vehicle use. This analysis showed that vehicle use patterns are distinctly different between weekends and weekdays, seasonal interactions between vehicle charging, electric load, and wind generation might be important, and that vehicle charging might increase already high peak summer electric load in Texas. Subsequent simulations of PEV charging were performed, which revealed that unscheduled charging would increase summer peak load in Texas by approximately 1\%, and that uncertainty that arises from unscheduled charging would require only limited increases in frequency regulation procurements. To assess the market potential for the implementation of a V2G system that provides frequency regulation ancillary services, and might be able to provide financial incentives to participating PEV owners, a two-stage stochastic programming formulation of a V2G system operator was created. In addition to assessing the market potential for a V2G system, the model was also designed to determine the effect of the market power of the V2G system operator on prices for frequency regulation, the effect of uncertainty in real-time vehicle availability and state-of-charge on the aggregator's ability to provide regulation services, and the effect of different vehicle characteristics on revenues. Results from this model showed that the V2G system operator could generate revenue from participation in the frequency regulation market in Texas, even when subject to the uncertainty in real-time vehicle use. The model also showed that the V2G system operator would have a significant impact on prices, and thus as the number of PEVs participating in a V2G program in a given region increased, per-vehicle revenues, and thus compensation provided to vehicle owners, would decline dramatically. From these estimated payments to PEV owners, the decision to participate in a V2G program was analyzed. The balance between the estimated payments to PEV owners for participating in a V2G program and the increased probability of being left with a depleted battery as a result of V2G operations indicate that an owner of a range-limited battery electric vehicle (BEV) would probably not be a viable candidate for joining a V2G program, while a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) owner might find a V2G program worthwhile. Even for a PHEV owner, however, compensation for participating in a V2G program will provide limited incentive to join. / text

For ensuring network survivability in case of single component failures many routing protocols provide a primary and a back up routing path for each origin destination pair. We address the problem of selecting these paths such that in the event of multiple failures, occuring with given probabilities, the total loss in routable demand due to both paths being intersected is small with high probability. We present a chance constraint model and solution approaches based on an explicit integer programming formulation, a robust formulation and a cutting plane approach that yield reasonably good solutions assuming that the failures are caused by at most two elementary events, which may each affect several network components.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

This research focuses on developing a crop decision planning model to help farmers make decisions for an upcoming crop year. The decisions consist of which crops to plant, the amount of land to allocate to each crop, when to grow, when to harvest, and when to sell. The objective is to maximize the overall profit subject to available resources under yield and price uncertainties. To help achieve this objective, we develop yield and price forecasting models to estimate the probable outcomes of these uncertain factors. The output from both forecasting models are incorporated into the crop decision planning model which enables the farmers to investigate and analyze the possible scenarios and eventually determine the appropriate decisions for each situation. This dissertation has three major components, yield forecasting, price forecasting, and crop decision planning. For yield forecasting, we propose a crop-weather regression model under a semiparametric framework. We use temperature and rainfall information during the cropping season and a GDP macroeconomic indicator as predictors in the model. We apply a functional principal components analysis technique to reduce the dimensionality of the model and to extract meaningful information from the predictors. We compare the prediction results from our model with a series of other yield forecasting models. For price forecasting, we develop a futures-based model which predicts a cash price from futures price and commodity basis. We focus on forecasting the commodity basis rather than the cash price because of the availability of futures price information and the low uncertainty of the commodity basis. We adopt a model-based approach to estimate the density function of the commodity basis distribution, which is further used to estimate the confidence interval of the commodity basis and the cash price. Finally, for crop decision planning, we propose a stochastic linear programming model, which provides the optimal policy. We also develop three heuristic models that generate a feasible solution at a low computational cost. We investigate the robustness of the proposed models to the uncertainties and prior probabilities. A numerical study of the developed approaches is performed for a case of a representative farmer who grows corn and soybean in Illinois.

Submitted by Augusto Cesar Pereira (augusto.pereira@feb.unesp.br) on 2017-12-20T09:42:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Augusto_Repositorio.pdf: 2651783 bytes, checksum: 084f19f166b7161411ec58baa4ecf206 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Marlene Zaniboni null (zaniboni@bauru.unesp.br) on 2017-12-20T10:54:46Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 pereira_ac_me_bauru.pdf: 2651783 bytes, checksum: 084f19f166b7161411ec58baa4ecf206 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-12-20T10:54:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 pereira_ac_me_bauru.pdf: 2651783 bytes, checksum: 084f19f166b7161411ec58baa4ecf206 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Este trabalho propõe um modelo de Procedimento de Equilíbrio de Mercado com Restrições de Segurança Estocásticas (PEMRSE) que pode ser utilizado como um modelo de leilão de energia e reserva do dia seguinte por operadores de sistemas hidrotérmicos. O modelo de PEMRSE tem o objetivo de minimizar o custo esperado da operação, considerando os custos associados aos excedentes de geração e consumo, partidas, contratação de reservas e a penalização econômica associada aos cortes involuntários de carga. O PEMRSE considera vários aspectos que dificultam a resolução de problemas de leilão: i) representação detalhada dos sistemas de geração hidrelétrico e termelétrico; ii) perdas na transmissão; e iii) restrições de segurança pré e pós-contingência. São propostas técnicas de linearização que não demandam o uso de variáveis binárias para a função de produção hidráulica e para as funções de potência e engolimento máximo de geradores hidrelétricos. A estrutura estocástica permite cortes involuntários de carga, isto é, o operador pode optar por não contratar a totalidade das reservas necessárias para cobrir as falhas associadas às contingências, ponderando sua decisão pela probabilidade de ocorrência destas falhas e pelo valor da penalização econômica associada ao corte de carga. Propõe-se também uma técnica para a resolução de modelos de PEMRSE em tempos computacionais menores com relação à sua resolução direta. Simulações em um sistema-teste de três barras e no sistema IEEE de 24 barras evidenciam a eficiência do modelo, das técnicas de linearização e da técnica de resolução propostos. As simulações também mostram os impactos dos aspectos complicadores nos resultados do leilão e no tempo computacional de resolução. O modelo de PEMRSE proposto pode ser resolvido de maneira eficiente por meio de pacotes computacionais disponíveis comercialmente por meio da técnica de resolução proposta. / This work proposes a Market Clearing Procedure with Stochastic Security Constraints (MCPSSC) model that can be used as an energy and reserve day-ahead auction model by hydrothermal systems operators. The MCPSSC aims to minimize the expected cost of the operation, considering the costs associated with the generation and consumption surpluses, start-ups, contracting of reserves and the economic penalization associated with involuntary load shedding events. The MCPSSC model considers several aspects that complicate the resolution of auction problems: i) detailed representation of the hydrothermal generating systems; ii) transmission losses; and iii) pre- and post-contingency security constraints. We propose linearization techniques that does not require the use of binary variables for the hydro production function and for the maximum power output and maximum water discharge functions of hydro generators. The stochastic structure allows some load shedding, ie, the operator can choose not to contract the total reserve requirements to cover the failures associated with the contingencies, weighting its decision by the probability of occurrence of these failures and by the value of lost load. We also propose a technique for the resolution of MCPSSC models in lower computational times regarding its direct resolution. Simulations in a three-bus test system and in the IEEE 24-bus system show the efficiency of the model, the linearization techniques and the resolution technique proposed. The simulations also show the the impact of the complicating aspects in the auction outcomes and in the computational time. The proposed MCPSSC model can be efficiently solved by commercially available solvers by means of the proposed resolution technique.

Portfolio Management is the process of allocating an investor's wealth to in­ vestment opportunities over a given planning period. Not only should Portfolio Management be treated within a multi-period framework, but one should also take into consideration the stochastic nature of related parameters. After a short review of key concepts from Finance Theory, e.g. utility function, risk attitude, Value-at-rusk estimation methods, a.nd mean-variance efficiency, this work describes a framework for the formulation of the Portfolio Management problem in a Stochastic Programming setting. Classical solution techniques for the resolution of the resulting Stochastic Programs (e.g. L-shaped Decompo­ sition, Approximation of the probability function) are presented. These are discussed within both the two-stage and the multi-stage case with a special em­ phasis on the former. A description of how Importance Sampling and EVPI are used to improve the efficiency of classical methods is presented. Postoptimality Analysis, a sensitivity analysis method, is also described. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Operations Research)