Given the relative scarcity of capital and the small volume of savings in most African economies at independence, the establishment of stock exchanges and their regulation showed that several countries considered them as strategic financial intermediaries for channelling capital to their national, and even regional, economies. This article examines the Lagos Stock Exchange’s formative years as a political process of Nigeria’s decolonisation and the First Republic. Originally incorporated as a private limited liability company on 15 September 1960, and as the first stock exchange in West Africa and the region’s largest economy, the new financial intermediary defined the relationship between the post-independence state and the growing capital market during a period of considerable political and economic changes. The role of the post-independence state and state-owned enterprises in facilitating the trade on the Lagos Stock Exchange broadens the analytical scope of this investigation to identify the sources of Nigeria’s development finance. While significant efforts were taken to grow private individual participation in the share trade and ownership, the early years of the Lagos Stock Exchange were ultimately marked by the dominance of institutional investors such as state-owned enterprises and private commercial banks.

The goal of this thesis is to analyze and compare the main characteristics of Prague Stock Exchange and Warsaw Stock Exchange. At first the attention is paid to the concept of "stock exchange" in the legal system of both countries. A short summary of the history of both exchanges is followed by a description of the organizational structure and comparison of the basic conditions of exchange membership. The individual market segments are analyzed as well as conditions for admission of financial instruments to those segments. The thesis also outlines the essential characteristics of trading systems in Prague and in Warsaw together with a list of basic types of trades. The final comparative analysis is devoted to the type and volume of financial instruments traded on both exchanges and settlement of those trades.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / The investing public seeks to have knowledge on the future and anticipated enterprise performance. The starting point for gathering such information is presented in the enterprise financial statements. Secondary data presented by the Business School of the University of Stellenbosch was used. The study focused on finding out the magnitude of reporting cash flows from operating activities using the indirect or direct methods. The study also checked the frequency of reporting value - added statements, and took a forecast view on what the reporting nature is expected to look like in the next financial year-end. The database used in the study included 655 listed and delisted industrial companies in the Johannesburg Stock Exchangeover the ten-year period starting from January 1990 through to December 1999. It is noted that the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants, as stated in Statement AC 118, encourages enterprises to report cash flows from operating activities using the direct method. This is because the direct method provides information which may be useful in estimating future cash flows and which is not available under the indirect method. The study noted the rate at which newly listed enterprises report their initial cash flow statements, and the rate at which enterprises listed before 1996 are changing from reporting using the indirect method to the direct method. The results showed that at present South African enterprises are reporting cash flows from operating activities at a higher rate that in other notable Western Countries subscribing to the doctrines of the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC). The number of enterprises presenting value - added statements has shown an increase, though reporting value - added statements is not yet statutory. For the forecasting exercise part of the study, Brown's linear double exponential smoothing technique was applied.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Corporate governance in South Africa was institutionalised by the publication of the King Report on Corporate Governance in 1994. The King Reports were set up to ensure transparency and accountability within companies. The second King Report on corporate governance for South Africa was released in 2002 and compliance with certain aspects of the report made compulsory as a listing requirement for companies trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in 2003. These requirements adopt an approach of comply or explain, and companies have to report on whether they comply with the recommendations of the second King report, or have to explain the reason for such non-compliance. In 2004 the Johannesburg Stock Exchange launched the SRI Index with the aim to facilitate investment in such companies that have adopted the triple bottom line approach to reporting. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) develops and disseminates globally applicable sustainability reporting guidelines which provide a framework for reporting on an organisation’s economic, environmental, and social performance. The first draft guidelines of the GRI were released in 1999 and updated in 2002. The third generation (3G) of the reporting guidelines were released in October 2006. The focus of this research project was to conduct a survey on all companies that are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index as well as the companies listed on the JSE SRI Index, with the aim of giving some insight into the development of corporate governance and sustainability reporting applied by South African companies. The findings of the 2006 study were compared to the findings of a similar study on compliance on integrated sustainability reporting done in 2004, and trends were identified, analysed and discussed. Specific focus was placed on the reporting on issues of climate change, biodiversity and compliance with applicable sector charters. The 2006 survey established that overall reporting on sustainability and governance issues has improved, that companies are publishing additional detail on the implementation of BEE and transformation policies and that corporate governance and ethical compliance have been entrenched in the companies’ corporate culture. Environmental management is the matter that was least reported on. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Korporatiewe bestuur in Suid Afrika was geinstitusionaliseer deur die publikasie van die King Verslag oor Korporatiewe Bestuur in 1994. Die King Verslag was ontwikkel om deursigtigheid en aanspreeklikheid in maatskappye te verseker. Die tweede Verslag oor Korporatiewe Bestuur in Suid Afrika was vrygestel in 2002 met sekere aspekte van die verslag wat verpligtend is as ’n maatskappy wil noteer op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs. Die verslag vereis van maatskappye om ’n standpunt in te neem van voldoening of verduideliking. Die maatskappy moet ’n verslag inlewer om redes te verskaf hoekom hulle voldoen aan die regulasies, of verduidelik hoekom hulle nie aan die regulasies van die tweede King Verslag voldoen het nie. In 2004 het die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs die SRI Indeks bekend gestel met die doel van fasilitasie vir beleggings in maatskappye wat die ’triple bottom line’ standpunt aanwend. Die ’Global Reporting Initiative’ ontwikkel en versprei globale riglyne vir ’triple bottom line’ verslagdoening – dit verskaf 'n raamwerk vir verslagdoening van ’n organisasie se ekonomiese, omgewings en sosiale optrede. Die eerste stel riglyne is vrygestel in 1999 en aangepas in 2002. Die derde generasie van die riglyne is vrygestel in Oktober 2006. Die fokus van die navorsing was alle maatskappye wat op die JSE All Share Indeks geregistreer is asook die maatskappye wat deel vorm van die JSE SRI Indeks, met die doel om insig te gee in die ontwikkeling van korporatiewe maatreëls en verslagdoening wat toegepas word deur Suid Afrikaanse maatskappye. Die resultate van die 2006 studie is vergelyk met resultate van ’n soortgelyke studie in 2004. Spesifieke fokus was geplaas op verslagdoening oor sake met betrekking tot klimaatsverandering, biodiversiteit en voldoening met toepaslike sektor verslae. Die 2006 ondersoek het bevind dat algehele verslagdoening verbeter het; dat maatskappye verdere inligting beskikbaar stel oor die implementasie van swart ekonomiese bemagtiging, transformasie beleid en korporatiewe bestuur; en dat etiese voldoening ge-integreer was in die maatskapy se korporatiewe kultuur.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report investigated whether evidence of volatility clustering exists on the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index. The presence of volatility clustering has practical implications relating to market decisions as well as the accurate measurement and reliable forecasting of volatility. This research report was conducted as an in-depth analysis of volatility, measured over five different return interval sizes covering the sample in non-overlapping periods. Each of the return interval sizes' volatility were analysed to reveal the distributional characteristics and if it violated the normality assumption. The volatility was also analysed to identify in which way, if any, subsequent periods are correlated. For each of the interval sizes one-step-ahead volatility forecasting was conducted using Linear Regression, Exponential Smoothing, GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models. The results were analysed using appropriate criteria to determine which of the forecasting models were more powerful. The forecasting models range from very simple to very complex, the rationale for this was to determine if more complex models outperform simpler models. The analysis showed that there was sufficient evidence to conclude that there was volatility clustering on the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index. It further showed that more complex models such as the GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) only marginally outperformed less complex models, and does not offer any real benefit over simpler models such as Linear Regression. This can be ascribed to the mean reversion effect of volatility and gives further insight into the volatility structure over the sample period. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsingsverslag ondersoek die FTSE/JSE Top 40 Indeks om te bepaal of daar genoegsame bewyse is dat volatiliteitsbondeling teenwoordig is. Die teenwoordigheid van volatiliteitsbondeling het praktiese implikasies vir besluite in finansiele markte en akkurate en betroubare volatiliteitsvooruitskattings. Die verslag doen 'n diepgaande ontleding van volatiliteit, gemeet oor vyf verskillende opbrengs interval groottes wat die die steekproef dek in nie-oorvleuelende periodes. Elk van die opbrengs interval groottes se volatiliteitsverdelings word ontleed om te bepaal of dit verskil van die normaalverdeling. Die volatiliteit van die intervalle word ook ondersoek om te bepaal tot watter mate, indien enige, opeenvolgende waarnemings gekorreleer is. Vir elk van die interval groottes word 'n een-stap-vooruit vooruitskatting gedoen van volatiliteit. Dit word gedoen deur middel van Lineêre Regressie, Eksponensiële Gladstryking, GARCH(1,1) en die EGARCH(1,1) modelle. Die resultate word ontleed deur middel van erkende kriteria om te bepaal watter model die beste vooruitskattings lewer. Die modelle strek van baie eenvoudig tot baie kompleks, die rasionaal is om te bepaal of meer komplekse modelle beter resultate lewer as eenvoudiger modelle. Die ontleding toon dat daar genoegsame bewyse is om tot die gevolgtrekking te kom dat daar volatiliteitsbondeling is op die FTSE/JSE Top 40 Indeks. Dit toon verder dat meer komplekse vooruitskattingsmodelle soos die GARCH(1,1) en die EGARCH(1,1) slegs marginaal beter presteer het as die eenvoudiger vooruitskattingsmodelle en nie enige werklike voordeel soos Lineêre Regressie bied nie. Dit kan toegeskryf word aan die neiging van volatiliteit am terug te keer tot die gemiddelde, wat verdere insig lewer oor volatiliteit gedurende die steekproef.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Repurchasing of shares by South African companies were legalised on 1 July 1999. This introduced an alternative to dividends for distributing cash to shareholders. Although dividends and share repurchases realise the same value in a perfect efficient market, the inefficiencies of the South African stock market require managers to carefully evaluate factors like taxation and stock price valuation when selecting appropriate distribution methods. This research report aims to update shareholder distribution trends for industrial JSE listed companies over the past 10 years in order to determine the impact of share repurchases on dividend payouts. Furthermore, this research report examines the factors that may have had an impact on shareholder distribution choices in order to provide some guidelines for choosing appropriate distribution methods. An initial analysis of SENS share repurchase announcements revealed that 121 JSE listed companies repurchased about R50 billion worth of shares up to 30 June 2007. The bulk of the shares, 65% by value, were repurchased on the open market, while 35% was repurchased through specific fixed price offers. However, a comparison of accurate share repurchase data obtained from a sample of company annual reports, indicate that repurchase announcements understate actual repurchases by more than 20% on average. Further analysis of distribution trends were therefore based on actual repurchase data published in annual reports rather than SENS announcements. After the legalisation of share repurchases in South Africa, a decline in dividend paying companies was expected similar to that experienced by the United States since the 80's. However, a detailed analysis of 132 industrial listed companies indicated that the proportion of dividend paying companies increased from a level of 50% to almost 75% since the introduction of share repurchases. On the other hand, the proportion of companies repurchasing shares initially rose to over 25%, but then declined to below 20% by 2007. Ordinary dividends are the dominant shareholder distribution choice with 64% of companies opting for this method. Open market share repurchases have been well adopted with 17% of companies using this method, while only 5% and 4% of companies using special dividends or specific repurchases respectively. Dividends paid out of share premium (capital distributions) have also emerged as a favourite over recent years with almost 20% of companies using this shareholder distribution method. Current tax legislation do not provide all the advantages usually enjoyed by share repurchases internationally and have largely prevented dividends from being substituted by share repurchases. The decline in share repurchases up to 2007 also indicates that share repurchases become less effective as share prices increase to overvalued levels. While tax implications and stock price valuation remain the dominant determinants of shareholder distribution choice, this study shows that shareholder diversity, dividend preferences, size of distribution, and BEE requirements also have significant influences on the choice of distribution method in the South African context. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die terugkoop van aandele deur Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye is wettig sedert 1 Julie 1999. Dit het 'n alternatief tot dividende in werking gestel om kontant aan aandeelhouers uit te keer. Alhoewel dividende en aandele-terugkoop dieselfde waarde in 'n perfekte doeltreffende mark realiseer, vereis die tekortkominge van die Suid-Afrikaanse aandelemark dat bestuurders faktore soos belasting en aandeelpryswaardasie versigtig moet oorweeg tydens die keuse van geskikte uitkeringsmetodes. Die doelwit van hierdie navorsingsverslag is om die tendense van uitkerings aan aandeelhouers te hersien vir industriele JSE-genoteerde maatskappye oor die laaste 10 jaar om sodoende die effek van aandele-terugkope op dividenduitbetalings te bepaal. Verder ondersoek hierdie navorsingsverslag ook die faktore wat moonlik 'n invloed op aandeelhouers-uitkeringskeuses gehad het, om sodoende riglyne vir die keuse van geskikte uitkeringsmetodes saam te stel. 'n Voorlopige analise van SENS-terugkoopaankondigings toon dat 121 JSE-genoteerde maatskappye ongeveer R50 miljard se aandele teruggekoop het tot en met 30 Junie 2007. Die grootste gedeelte van hierdie aandele, 65% se waarde, is op die ope mark teruggekoop terwyl 35% deur spesifieke vasteprys terugkope verkry is. 'n Vergelyking met terugkoopsyfers wat uit 'n steekproef van maatskappyjaarverslae geneem is, dui egter daarop dat aankondigings die ware terugkope met gemiddeld 20% onderskat. Verdere ontleding van aandeelhouers-uitkeringstendense word derhalwe gebaseer op syfers wat in jaarverslae gepubliseer is, eerder as SENS-aankondigings. Na die wettiging van aandele-terugkoop in Suid-Afrika, is verwag dat dividenduitbetalings sou daal soortgelyk aan dit wat in die Verenigde State ondervind is sedert die 80's. Die ondersoek van 132 genoteerde industriele maatskappye toon egter dat die persentasie van maatskappye wat dividende betaal van 50% tot bykans 75% toegeneem het sedert aandele-terugkoop 'n beskikbare opsie is. In teenstelling hiermee, het die persentasie maatskappye wat aandele terugkoop aanvanklik tot 25% gestyg, maar sedertdien afgeneem tot onder 20% teen 2007. Gewone dividende is die gewildste aandeelhouers-uitkeringsmetode met 64% van maatskappye wat van hierdie metode gebruik maak. Aandele-terugkope op die ope mark is goed verteenwoordig met 17% van maatskappye wat van hierdie metode gebruik gemaak het, terwyl slegs 5% en 4% van maatskappye onderskeidelik van spesiale dividende en spesifieke aandele-terugkope gebruik gemaak het. Dividende uit aandelepremie (kapitaaluitkerings) het ook na vore getree as 'n gunsteling keuse in die laaste paar jaar met bykans 20% van maatskappye wat hierdie uitkeringsmetode gebruik het. Huidige belastingswetgewing bied nie al die belastingvoordele aan aandele-terugkope wat normaalweg deur internasionale maatskappye benut word nie en het grotendeels verhoed dat dividende deur aandele-terugkoop vervang is. Die afname in aandeleterugkope tot en met 2007 is ook 'n aanduiding dat dit minder effektief raak soos wat aandeelpryse oor gewaardeerde vlakke styg. Terwyl belasting-oorwegings en aandeelpryswaardasies steeds die dominante drywers van aandeelhouersuitkeringskeuses bly, bevind hierdie studie dat faktore soos aandeelhouers se diversiteit, dividendvoorkeure, grootte van uitkerings, en vereistes van swart ekonomiese bemagtiging ook 'n noemenswaardige invloed op uitkeringskeuses binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks het.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Econophysics is a relatively new branch of physics. It entails the use of models in physics applied to economics. The distributions of financial time series are the aspect most intensely studied by physicists. This study is based on a study by Kleinert and Chen who applied the Boltzmann distribution to stock exchange data to define a market temperature that may be used by investors to indicate an impending stock market crash. Most econophysicists’ analysed the tail regions of the distributions as the tails represent risk in financial data. This study’s focus of analysis, on the other hand is the characterisation of the central portion of the probability distribution. The Boltzmann distribution, a cornerstone in statistical physics, yields an exponential distribution. The objective of this study is to investigate the suitability of using a market volatility forecasting method from econophysics, namely the Boltzmann/market temperature method. As econometric benchmark the ARCH/GARCH method is used. Stock market indices are known to be non-normally (non-Gaussian) distributed. The distribution pattern of a stock market index of reasonable high sampling frequency (typically interday or intraday) is leptokurtic with heavy tails. Mesoscopic (interday) distributions of financial time series have been found to be exponential distributions. If the empirical exponential distribution is therefore interpreted as a Boltzmann distribution, then a market temperature can be calculated from the exponential distribution. Empirical data for this study is in the form of daily closing values of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index (ALSI) and the Standard & Poor 500 (S & P 500) index for the period 1995 through to 2008. The Kleinert and Chen study made use of intraday data obtained from established markets. This study differs from the Kleinert and Chen study in that interday data obtained from an emerging market, namely the South African stock market is used. Neither of the aforementioned two differences had a significant influence on the results of this study. The JSE ALSI log-return data displays non-Gaussian properties and the Laplace (double exponential) distribution fit the data well. A plot of the market temperature provided a clear indication of when stock market crashes occurred. Results of the econophysical (Boltzmann/market temperature) method compared well to results of the econometric (ARCH/GARCH) method and subject to certain improvements can be utilised successfully. A leptokurtic, non-Gaussian nature was established for daily log-returns of the JSE ALSI and the S & P 500 index. The Laplace (double exponential) distribution fit the annual logreturns of the JSE ALSI and S & P 500 index well. As a result of the good Laplace fit, annual market temperatures could be calculated for the JSE ALSI and the S & P 500 index. The market temperature method was effective in identifying market crashes for both indices, but a limitation of the method is that only annual market temperatures can be determined. The availability of intraday stock index data should improve the interval for which market temperature can be determined. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ekonofisika is ‘n relatiewe nuwe studieveld. Dit behels die toepassing van fisiese modelle op finansiële data. Die waarskynlikheidsversdelings van finansiële tydreekse is die aspek wat meeste deur fisisie bestudeer word. Hierdie studie is gebaseer op ‘n studie deur Kleinert en Chen. Hulle het die Boltzmann-verspreiding op ‘n aandele-indeks toegepas en ‘n mark-temperatuur bepaal. Hierdie mark-temperatuur kan deur ontleders gebruik word as waarskuwingsmeganisme teen moontlike aandelebeurs ineenstortings. Die meeste fisisie het die uiterste areas van die verspreidingskurwes geanaliseer omdat hierdie uiterste area risiko in finansiële data verteenwoordig. Die analitiese fokus van hierdie studie, aan die ander kant, is die karakterisering van die die sentrale areas van die waarskeinlikheidsverdeling. Die Boltzmann verspreiding, die hoeksteen van Statistiese Fisika lewer ‘n eksponensiële waarskynlikheidsverdeling. Die doel van hierdie studie is om ‘n ondersoek te doen na die geskiktheid van die gebruik van ‘n ekonofisiese, vooruitskattingsmetode, naamlik die Boltzmann/mark-temperatuur model. As ekonometriese verwysing is die “ARCH/GARCH” metode toegepas. Aandelemark indekse is bekend vir die nie-Gaussiese verspreiding daarvan. Die verspreidingspatroon van ‘n aandelemark indeks met‘n redelike hoë steekproef frekwensie (in die orde van ‘n dag of minder) is leptokurties met breë stert-dele. Mesoskopiese (interdag) verspreidings van finansiële tydreekse is getipeer as eksponensieël. Indien die empiriese eksponensiële-verspreiding as ‘n Boltzmann-verspreiding geinterpreteer word, kan ‘n mark-temperatuur daarvoor bereken word. Empiriese data vir die gebruik in hierdie studie is in die vorm van daaglikse sluitingswaardes van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs (JSE) se Alle Aandele Indeks (ALSI) en die Standard en Poor 500 (S & P 500) indeks vir die periode 1995 tot en met 2008. Die Kleinert en Chen studie het van intradag data vanuit ‘n ontwikkelde mark gebruik gemaak. Hierdie studie verskil egter van die Kleinert en Chen studie deurdat van interdag data vanuit ‘n opkomende mark, naamlik die Suid-Afrikaanse aandelemark, gebruik is. Nie een van die twee voorafgaande verskille het ‘n beduidende invloed op die resultate van hierdie studie gehad nie. Die JSE ALSI se logaritmiese opbrengs data vertoon nie-Gaussiese eienskappe en die Laplace (dubbeleksponensiële) verspreiding beskryf die data goed. ‘n Grafiek van die mark-temperatuur vertoon duidelik wanneer aandelemarkineenstortings plaasgevind het. Resultate van die ekonofisiese (Boltzmann/mark-temperatuur) metode vergelyk goed met resultate van die ekonometriese (“ARCH/GARCH”) metode en onderhewig aan sekere verbeteringe kan dit met sukses toegepas word. ‘n Leptokurtiese, nie-Gaussiese aard is vir daaglike opbrengswaardes vir die JSE ALSI en die S & P 500 indeks vasgestel. ‘n Laplace (dubbel-eksponensiële) verspreiding kan goed op die jaarlikse logaritmiese opbrengste van die JSE ALSI en die S & P 500 indeks toegepas word. As gevolg van die goeie aanwending van die Laplace-verspreiding kan ‘n jaarlikse mark-temperatuur vir die JSE ALSI en die S & P 500 indeks bereken word. Die mark-temperatuur metode is effektief in die identifisering van aandelemarkineenstorings vir beide indekse, hoewel daar ‘n beperking is op die aantal mark-temperature wat bereken kan word. Die beskikbaarheid van intradag aandele indekswaardes behoort die interval waarvoor mark-temperature bereken kan word te verbeter.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study examines the extent to which the industrial companies listed in the Johannesburg Securities Exchange complied with the disclosure provisions of the Accounting Standards AC101 when publishing their financial statements for the years 2000 to 2002. This study further evaluates the accuracy of the reporting of the salaries and wages as presented in their Value Added Statements. Published financial statements for the years 2000 to 2002 of more than 160 companies were analysed and evaluated. The study also identifies companies that did not disclose staff costs and directors' emoluments in their financial statements as well as those companies that reported the labour portion of their wealth distribution accurately in their Value Added Statements. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie dek die mate waarin genoteerde industriële maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs voldoen het aan die openbaarmakingsvereistes van die Rekeningkundige Standaarde RE101 ten opsigte van hul finansiële state soos van 2000 tot 2002 gepubliseer. Die studie let verder ook op die akkuraatheid van die verslaggewing van salarisse en lone in die Toegevoegdewaardestate. Gepubliseerde finansiële state vir die jare 2000 tot 2002 van meer as 160 maatskappye is ontleed en geëvalueer. Die studie identifiseer ook daardie maatskappye wat nie salariskoste en direkteursvergoeding in hul finansiële state geopenbaar het nie, sowel as diegene wat hul salarisse korrek in die Toegevoegdewaardestate openbaar het.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Much research effort has been spent over the past few decades in the field of capital market analysis and modelling. This research was mostly based on static linear models or derivatives thereof such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. This study project takes an interesting look at a contemporary capital market hypothesis, which is fundamentally based on a non-linear statistical model. The Coherent Market Hypothesis (CMH) was first formulated by Tonis Vaga in 1990. It is based on a theory of social imitation, taking factors such as the underlying fundamental situation and the level of crowd behaviour into account. It also includes the phenomenon of “random walk” as a special case. The CMH departs from the premise of rational investors and normally distributed share returns. In turn, it offers a series of “market states” ranging from trendless (random walk), through unstable transition into coherent bull or bear phases and ultimately into periods of chaotic fluctuation (panics and crashes). The CMH is mathematically formulated and therefore it offers many opportunities for experimentation. This study project is an investigation of the validity and application of the CMH using real JSE data. Artificial Neural Networks were applied as computational aids. The main objective was to demonstrate the CMH’s usefulness as a forecasting tool in both a quantitative as well as qualitative capacity. The results of the quantitative analysis were not as significant or valuable as initially expected. However, the usefulness of the CMH was demonstrated in a more qualitative sense. It is shown that the CMH offers a rich theoretical framework for interpretation, understanding and recognising of market dynamics. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Gedurende die afgelope paar dekades is aansienlike hoeveelhede navorsing gedoen in die veld van kapitaalmark analise en modellering. Hierdie navorsing was hoofsaaklik gebaseer op statiese, lineêre modelle of afgeleides daarvan, naamlik die Efficient Market Hypothesis, die Capital Asset Pricing Model en die Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Hierdie werkstuk kyk vanuit ‘n interessante oogpunt na ‘n meer hedendaagse kapitaalmark hipotese wat fundamenteel gebaseer is op ‘n nie-lineêre statistiese model. Die Coherent Market Hypothesis (CMH) is oorspronklik geformuleer deur Tonis Vaga in 1990. Dit is gebaseer op ‘n teorie van sosiale nabootsing en dit neem faktore in ag soos die onderliggende fundamentele situasie asook die vlak van groepgedrag. Die verskynsel van “random walk” word ook ingesluit as ‘n spesiale geval. Die CMH wyk af van die aanname dat beleggers rasioneel optree asook van die aanname dat aandeel opbrengste normaal verspreid is. In teendeel, die CMH omvat ‘n reeks marktoestande wat wissel van die tendenslose (random walk) deur onstabiele oorgang na koherente bul- of beerfases en uiteindelik in tydperke van chaotiese skommelings (markineenstortings). Die CMH is wiskundig geformuleer en daarom bied dit vele geleenthede ten opsigte van eksperimentering. Hierdie werkstuk is ‘n ondersoek na die geldigheid en toepassing van die CMH met die gebruik van JSE aandeledata. Kunsmatige Neurale Netwerke is gebruik as berekeningshulpmiddels. Die hoofoogmerk was om die bruikbaarheid van die CMH as voorspellingshulpmiddel te demonstreer in beide ‘n kwantitatiewe sowel as kwalitatiewe opsig. Die resultate van die kwantitatiewe analise was nie so beduidend as aanvanklik verwag nie. Die bruikbaarheid van die CMH was wel gedemonstreer in ‘n meer kwalitatiewe opsig. Dit is ook aangetoon dat die CMH ‘n omvangryke teoretiese raamwerk bied vir die interpretasie, begrip en uitkenning van markdinamika.

Assignment (MComm)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A definite need exists for a measure which can be used to determine the degree of capital intensity of an enterprise. One of the main reasons why it is important to determine if an enterprise is capital or labour intensive is that the two types of enterprises react to changes in the economic environment in different ways. Some changes in the economic factors will have a totally different effect on a capital intensive enterprise than they would have on a labour intensive one. The degree of capital intensity of an enterprise can therefore be used to predict how it will react to economic changes, and it is therefore a valuable source of information for financial decision-making. The measurement of capital intensity, however, presents a major problem. A large number of different measures have been developed and used in the literature. These measures include the measures of total assets to revenue; property, plant and equipment to revenue; property, plant and equipment to total assets; depreciation as a percentage of revenue; as well as property, plant and equipment per employee. A number of measures are also based on value added figures, and these include salaries to revenue; value added per employee; property, plant and equipment to value added; and salaries to value added. In the literature most researchers provide no or little justification for their preferred measure of capital intensity. The main objective of the study is to determine an appropriate method to measure capital intensity. For this purpose the above-mentioned measures, which are generally used to determine capital intensity, are considered critically and evaluated by classifying enterprises listed in the Industrial Sector of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange during the period 1989 to 1996. During this period the South African economy experienced a decline, followed by an upswing in the economic cycle. Principal component analyses (PCA) are used to analyse the data. These analyses are carried out for each year separately as well as for the period as a whole. Biplots are used to provide a multidimensional graphic representation of the results. The results indicate that the five traditional measures of capital intensity which are not based on value added figures are all suitable to use as measures of capital intensity. Only one of the measures based on value added figures, however, are able to indicate capital intensity. The five traditional measures of capital intensity which are not based on value added figures, as well as the measure property, plant and equipment to value added, are therefore included in the principal component analyses. The principal component scores obtained from the first principal component are proposed as a composite measure of capital intensity. These principal component scores represent a linear combination of the six measures of capital intensity. The relative contributions of the various measures to this composite measure are also investigated, and it is found that all six the measures provide an important contribution. The results indicate that a number of enterprises listed in the Stores and Food sectors are relatively less capital intensive, while enterprises listed in the Building and Construction, Engineering, Steel and Allied, and Electronics sectors are relatively capital intensive. A visual evaluation of the results indicates that the proposed method IS able to distinguish between capital and less capital intensive enterprises. The results of the study provide researchers with a more efficient way of measuring capital intensity, and can be used to provide more information about the effect of changes in the economic cycle on the expected financial performance of enterprises. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Duidelike behoefte bestaan VIr 'n maatstaf wat gebruik kan word om die kapitaalintensiteit van 'n onderneming te bepaal. Een van die vernaamste redes waarom dit belangrik is om te bepaal of 'n onderneming kapitaal- of arbeidsintensief is, is die verskillende wyses waarop die twee tipes ondernemings gedurende 'n verandering in die ekonomiese siklus reageer. Sommige veranderinge in die ekonomiese faktore sal die teenoorgestelde effek op 'n kapitaalintensiewe onderneming hê as wat dit op 'n arbeidsintensiewe onderneming mag hê. 'n Onderneming se graad van kapitaalintensiteit kan dus gebruik word om te voorspel hoe die onderneming op ekonomiese veranderinge sal reageer, en is dus 'n belangrike bron van inligting by finansiële besluitneming. Die meting van kapitaalintensiteit is egter 'n belangrike probleem. 'n Groot aantal verskillende maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit is ontwikkel en word algemeen in die literatuur gebruik. Hierdie maatstawwe sluit totale bates tot inkomste; eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot inkomste; eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot totale bates; depresiasie as 'n persentasie van inkomste; asook eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot aantal werknemers in. 'n Aantal maatstawwe wat op waarde toegevoeg gebaseer is, is ook ontwikkel, en sluit die maatstawwe salarisse tot inkomste; waarde toegevoeg per werknemer; eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot waarde toegevoeg; asook salarisse tot waarde toegevoeg in. In die literatuur verskaf die meeste navorsers min of geen motivering vir die spesifieke maatstaf wat hul voorkeur geniet nie. Die primêre doelstelling van die studie is om 'n geskikte metode te vind om kapitaalintensiteit te meet. Ten einde hierdie doelstelling te bereik, word die bogenoemde maatstawwe, wat algemeen gebruik word as maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit, krities ondersoek en geëvalueer deur ondernemings wat genoteer is in die Industriële Sektor van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs gedurende die periode 1989 tot 1996 te klassifiseer. Gedurende hierdie periode het die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie 'n afname, gevolg deur 'n opswaai in die ekonomiese siklus beleef. Hoofkomponent analises word gebruik om die verskillende maatstawwe te evalueer. Die analises word individueel uitgevoer vir elke jaar, sowel as vir die periode as 'n geheel. Bi-stippings word gebruik om 'n meerdimensionele grafiese voorstelling van die resultate te verskaf. Die resultate toon dat die vyf tradisionele maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit wat nie op waarde toegevoeg gebaseer is nie almal geskik is om as maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit gebruik te word. Slegs een van die maatstawwe wat op waarde toegevoeg gebaseer is, is egter in staat om kapitaalintensiteit aan te toon. Die vyf tradisionele maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit, sowel as die maatstaf eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot waarde toegevoeg, word derhalwe ingesluit in die hoofkomponent analises, en die hoofkomponenttellings wat verkry word uit die eerste hoofkomponent word as 'n saamgestelde maatstaf van kapitaalintensiteit voorgestel. Hierdie hoofkomponenttellings verteenwoordig 'n liniëre kombinasie van die ses maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit. Die relatiewe bydraes van die verskillende maatstawwe tot die saamgestelde maatstaf word ook ondersoek. Die resultate dui aan dat 'n aantalondernemings wat in die Winkels en Voedsel sektore genoteer is relatief minder kapitaalintensief is, terwyl ondernemings wat in die Boubedryf, Ingenieurswese, Staal en Bedrywe, asook die Elektronika sektore genoteer is, relatief kapitaalintensief is. 'n Visuele evaluasie van die resultate toon aan dat die voorgestelde maatstaf in staat is om tussen kapitaalintensiewe en minder kapitaalintensiewe ondernemings te onderskei. Die resultate van die studie stel navorsers in staat om 'n meer effektiewe meting van kapitaalintensiteit te verkry, en kan ook meer inligting verskaf oor die invloed van veranderinge in die ekonomiese siklus op die verwagte finansiële prestasie van ondernemings.