Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time periods: the year leading up to the 2016 election, all election years excluding the 2016, and all non-election years. I found that the 2016 election year was significantly less volatile than both prior election years as well as non-election years, suggesting that the 2015-2016 election year was not a closely contested race.

The stock market crash of 1929 stands today as the largest decline in market value in the history of the United States. Consequently, the event destroyed the wealth of thousands of American families and institutions. On October 28th and 29th, the United States stock market fell 11.3 percent and 12.4 percent respectively, marking the beginning of a down market that lasted over three years, the time period known today as the Great Depression. This paper empirically analyzes the effects felt by each individual industry sector in the crash of 1929, identifying gross and abnormal returns over three major days in the crash. I then compare my findings to previous literature and economic theories, analyzing which sector returns were expected and which were abnormal.

The correlation between stock market returns and changes in bond market yields are of big interest among investors because this indicator helps them allocate their assets and diversify investment risk more effectively. An in- vestor should keep track of development of the economies of individual coun- tries, understand the causes of dissimilarities in the correlations among them and take these differences into account for successful international financial investment. The current author contributes to the existing researches by the modeling of stock-bond market co-movements using the updated datasets with focus on Central European countries and differences in public debt levels. The paper contains the empirical analysis of stock and bond market returns condi- tional correlations, modeled by the use of the Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (AG-DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Het- eroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, for nine Western and Central European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary) that differ both by their geographic locations and economic development. The main distinctions in the correlations are ob- served during the European sovereign debt crisis. The three types of develop- ment are...

This thesis analyzes the use of realized moments in asset pricing. The analysis is done using dataset containing log-returns for 29 of the most traded stocks and covering 10 years of data. The dataset is split into training set covering 7 years and test set covering 3 years of data. For each of the stocks a separate time series model is estimated. In evaluation of the quality of the models, metrics such as RMSE, MAD, accuracy in forecasting the sign of future returns, and returns achievable by executing trades based on the recommendations from the model are used. Even though the inclusion of realized moments does not provide significant improvements in terms of RMSE, it is found that realized skewness and kurtosis significantly contribute to explaining the returns of individual stocks as they lead to consistent improvements in identifying future positive, as well as negative, returns. Moreover, the recommendations from the models using realized moments can help us achieve significantly higher returns from trading stocks. Inclusion of the interaction terms for variance and returns, skewness and returns, and kurtosis and variance, provides additional improvement of forecasting accuracy, as well as improvements in returns achievable by executing transactions based on recommendations from the model....

The thesis examines herding behavior of investors towards the market average in 10 CEE stock markets during the period 2000-2018. Least squares and quantile regression methods provide evidence of herding inside the majority of the countries. During the global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis, the herding mentality was more intense only in Slovenia and Croatia. The thesis finds mixed results in asymmetric herding during days of positive and negative market returns. The main finding, and a contribution to the literature, is that the domestic cross-sectional dispersion of returns in the CEE is affected by the dispersion of returns of the foreign stock markets in the USA, the UK, and Germany. In addition, empirical results suggest that extreme market conditions in the U.K. market have an impact on the formation of herding forces within the CEE stock markets. Short-run arbitrageurs can benefit from collective decisions of investors that in turn drive stock prices away from their fair value, but the presence of herding undermines benefits of portfolio diversification. In the long-run, the contagious international effects may result in a severe instability of the whole region and in market inefficiency.

A liquidez do mercado acionário pode ser estudada sob diversas perspectivas. No Brasil, o tema tem sido objeto de investigações econômicas, mas pouco se tem escrito a respeito na literatura jurídica. Esta tese examina, em primeiro lugar, os possíveis significados do termo liquidez; os principais métodos para que se mensure a liquidez do mercado acionário; e as vantagens que um mercado líquido pode propiciar às companhias abertas. Em segundo lugar, a tese apresenta um panorama dos principais fatores que podem estimular a liquidez do mercado acionário, entre os quais figuram o comportamento dos investidores, a microestrutura do mercado e o arcabouço normativo vigente. Em mercados acionários emergentes, também a concentração acionária - entendida como a predominância de companhias em que o poder de controle é exercido majoritariamente - pode ter impactos negativos sobre a liquidez. Nesse contexto, o direito societário desempenha papel importante ao disciplinar potenciais conflitos entre acionistas controladores e acionistas minoritários que tenham repercussões sobre a liquidez das ações. Nesse sentido, a Lei das S.A. e a regulamentação expedida pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários - CVM instituem mecanismos que visam a proteger acionistas minoritários nas situações em que o exercício do poder de controle pode lhes privar de um pressuposto de liquidez: o acesso ao mercado secundário de valores mobiliários. Essas situações são, em síntese, o cancelamento de registro de companhia aberta; e a realização de reorganizações societárias em que a base acionária de companhia aberta é compelida a migrar para uma companhia fechada. A tese compara os mecanismos aplicáveis a cada hipótese e busca demonstrar (a) as assimetrias existentes entre eles; e (b) de que maneira eles se inserem na estrutura de exercício do poder de controle estabelecida pela Lei das S.A. Além disso, o acionista controlador pode prejudicar a liquidez de mercado das ações ao aumentar sua participação acionária e provocar um estreitamento do mercado. Também para essa situação - conhecida como \"fechamento branco de capital\" - a Lei das S.A. e a regulamentação expedida pela CVM instituíram mecanismos de proteção aos acionistas minoritários. A tese examina os problemas hermenêuticos relacionados a esses mecanismos e questiona sua efetividade - talvez comprometida pelo fato de que, para os fins daqueles mecanismos, a liquidez acionária é mensurada com base em um critério insuficiente (a participação do acionista controlador, considerada abstratamente). Ao final, a tese apresenta possíveis diretivas para a alteração do arcabouço normativo vigente. / The liquidity of the stock market can be studied from different standpoints. In Brazil, this topic has been the subject of investigations in economic theory, but little has been written thereon in legal literature. This thesis examines, in the first place, the possible meanings of the term liquidity; the main methods for measuring the liquidity of stock markets; and the advantages that a liquid market may provide to publicly-traded companies. Secondly, this thesis presents an overview of the main factors that can stimulate stock market liquidity, which may include investors\' behavior, the market microstructure and the legal and regulatory framework. In emerging markets, ownership concentration - understood as the predominance of companies controlled by a majority shareholder - may further negatively impact liquidity. In this context, corporate law plays an important role in providing solutions for potential conflicts that may arise between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders, which may reverberate on the stock liquidity. In this sense, the Brazilian Corporations Law and the regulations issued by the Brazilian Securities Commission provide for protection mechanisms applicable to situations in which the controlling shareholder may deprive minority shareholders of a premise of liquidity: the access to the secondary securities market. These situations are, in brief, the decision to voluntarily deregister as a publicly-traded company; and to carry out merger transactions in which the publicly-traded company\'s shareholders are compelled to migrate to a privately-held company. The thesis compares the protection mechanisms which apply to each of such hypotheses and intends to (a) demonstrate the existing asymmetries between them; and (b) analyze if and how they are compatible with the governing structure set forth by the Brazilian Corporations Law. Furthermore, controlling shareholders may hinder stock market liquidity by increasing its equity stake and causing a narrowing of the market. Likewise for such situation - known in Brazil as \"cold delisting\" - the Brazilian Corporations Law and the regulations issued by the Brazilian Securities Commission instituted remedies for the protection of minority shareholders. The thesis examines the hermeneutical issues concerning such mechanisms and challenges their effectiveness - which is hampered perhaps due to the fact that, for the purposes of such mechanisms, market liquidity is measured by an insufficient criterion (an abstract trigger based on the controlling shareholder\'s ownership stake). Finally, the thesis presents possible directives for the amendment of the existing Brazilian legal framework.

Thesis advisor: Harold A. Petersen / This paper attempts to find the extent of the predictive power of the stock market in relation to consumption, non-residential investment, and corporate profits. Initially, a naïve model is formulated to assess the impact of the stock market on GDP, and then the model is used to find the predictive power of the stock market on the components. This component analysis compares the impact of the market on each of the components and attempts to find reasons for the variations in impact. Finally, the long term predictive power of the various models is assessed. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2005. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program.

Throughout the last century there has been an extensve discussion regarding the optimal capital structure.Excessive research has further been conducted to understand the relationbetween the market debt and equity on an aggregated market-level. However, it is observed that the research on thefirm-specific co-movement of stock and bondsis scarce. Since the last financial crisis,the bond market has especiallyseen a rapid growth. The growthstemsfrom the low interest rate climate togetherwithmore restrictive lending policies from banks. Based on this discussion the purpose of this research is to investigate if Swedish corporationsare making the optimal capital structure decision. This based on a potential co-movement of stocks and bonds. To answer the purpose the research question was therefore: What is therelationship between a corporation’s bond returnand stock return?The scientific method that was used in this research is a quantitative method witha deductive process and a positivistic angle. Because the research uses the whole population that is available, this is a censusstudy. In the population companies that have been active on the stock and the bond market sometime during the period from 2008 to 2018. Although, companies that have been delisted during this period have been excluded. From a population of 75 companies and 1972 observations, two regressions were made due to the inconclusive results regarding the dependency of stock return and bond return. No significant result between the returns was found. However, a significant result between marketcapitalizationand the returns togheter with stock standard deviation and the returns was found. Based on the result, the authors could conclude that there seems to be a demand for the issuance of both stocks and bonds. This follows a discussion regarding the possibility of diversification of the securities based on the modern portfolio theory. Further, the authors can conclude that the theories regardin the irrelevance of capital structure are applicable. Finally,the authors can conclude that the stakeholder theory can explain the value creation in a more appropriate fashion in relation to the result. The authors canthereforeconclude that the debt-equity dilemma still is present and further research within the area is required.

In this research we investigate the relationship between multifactor investing and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and contribute to modern stock market prediction. We present the components for multifactor investing i.e. value, quality, size, low volatility & momentum as well as a methodology for ANN which provides the theory for the results. The return for the multifactor funds tested in this research is recorded below the benchmark used. However, the factors do have a dynamic relationship when testing for correlation and the multifactor regression analysis showed a high explanatory power (R2) for the funds. Based on the methodology of an ANN we establish that it is possible to use the knowledge from multifactor investing to train the technology with. When summarizing peer reviewed journals, we find that momentum have already been recurrently used in previous stock market prediction systems based on ANN, but the remaining factors have not. We conclude that there is an opportunity to use several factors to train an ANN due to their dynamic relationship and unique characteristics.

This thesis analyzes the long run relationship between stock markets and macroeconomic variables, such as the real industrial production index, consumer price index, money supply, and long-term government bonds. By the use of recent developments in cointegration methodologies a larger set of countries is analyzed due to mitigation of the issue where variables are integrated of different orders. Based on a present value model, this thesis applies an ARDL model and conducts the bounds testing procedure for analysis of cointegrating relationships among the variables. Complemented by the popular Johansen cointegration methodology, it is found that the variables are cointegrated for all of the twelve countries. Hence, the present value model provides a theoretical explanation of the long run connection between stock markets and macroeconomic variables. Finally, the long run relationship is estimated using both FMOLS and DOLS. Results show that real economic activity, proxied by the real industrial production index, enters a positive relationship with the stock market indices, and so does money supply. In contrast, the consumer price index and long-term government bonds enter a negative relationship with the stock market indices. Hence, this thesis adds to the literature by applying new methodologies to the topic, through which a larger set of countries can be analyzed, and by further analyzing the long run relationship between stock markets and real economic activity.