Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / Modeling and forecasting volatility is one of the crucial functions in various fields of financial engineering, especially in the quantitative risk management departments of banks and insurance companies. Forecasting volatility is a task of any analyst in the space of portfolio management, risk management and option pricing. In this study we examined different GARCH models in Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) using univariate GARCH models (GARCH (1, 1), EGARCH (1, 1), GARCH-M (1, 1) GJR-GARCH (1, 1) and PGARCH (1, 1)). Daily log-returns were used on JSE ALSH, Resource 20, Industrial 25 and Top 40 indices over a period of 12 years. Both symmetric and asymmetric models were examined. The results showed that GARCH (1, 1) model dominate other models both in-sample and out-of-sample in modeling the volatility clustering and leptokurtosis in financial data of JSE sectoral indices. The results showed that the JSE All Share Index and all other indices studied here can be best modeled by GARCH (1, 1) and out-of-sample for JSE All Share index proved to be best for GARCH (1, 1). In forecasting out-of-sample EGARCH (1, 1) proved to outperformed other forecasting models based on different procedures for JSE All Share index and Top 40 but for Resource 20 RJR-GARCH (1, 1) is the best model and Industrial 25 data suggest PGARCH (1, 1) / DM2016

This study aims to develop a robust methodology for measuring the performance of equity-share schemes in South African agriculture. Equity-share schemes are privately owned farming operations that are generally restructured as companies with the original owner and the farmworkers as shareholders. Several studies have investigated various aspects of the performance of these schemes but no single study has yet measured their performance using a comprehensive and objective set of criteria. Four categories of criteria are proposed: poverty alleviation; empowerment and participation; institutional arrangements and governance; and financial performance. This study does not aim to assess the performance of existing equity-share schemes rather a methodology for the four criteria based on empirical evidence gathered in 2004 from a land reform project in the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and seven established equity-share schemes in the Western Cape. Poverty alleviation is measured using a transition matrix of households grouped by four different symptoms of poverty: current income, wealth, health and a principal component index of housing quality based on building materials, access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation. Eight. categories of indicators are recommended for empowerment and participation: control and ownership; skills transfer; understanding of the structure of the scheme; information; outcomes; trust; outreach; and participation. A scorecard applying norms based on empirical evidence gathered at equity-share schemes in the Western Cape is used to assess the indicators. A scorecard approach is also applied to institutional arrangements and governance, which are measured using three categories of indicators: accountability, transparency and property rights. Recognised indicators ;of financial performance are applied to balance sheet and income statement data provided by four of the seven equity-share schemes in the Western Cape. This analysis highlights problems with several of the conventional ratios used to measure the profitability, solvency and growth of recently restructured farming enterprises whose 'empowerment' status attracts exceptionally high levels of debt capital to finance long-term investments. To avoid these problems it is recommended that, for equity-share schemes, profitability should be measured by the return on assets or dividend return; solvency by the debt/asset ratio; liquidity by cash flow projections; growth by changes in the (estimated) real. value of shares; and workers' total returns by changes in the sum of the real wage bill, capital gains, dividends, interest and other benefits accruing to workers in aggregate. The proposed performance measures are relevant, manageable in number and have feasible norms based on empirical evidence. These indicators and their norms need to be tested on a wider scale and over time. Further research should be undertaken to estimate weights for the empowerment and institutional indicators. / Thesis (M.Sc.Agric.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2004.

This research was conducted to determine whether the intrinsic share values that are obtained using the EVA valuation model are an indicator of share prices as quoted on the JSE Securities Exchange. The research did not differentiated between companies that have implemented EVA in South Africa and those that have not. The research was conducted by performing EVA intrinsic share price calculations for 43 companies listed on the JSE Securities Exchange. These EVA share prices were correlated to the actual share price as quoted on the JSE Securities Exchange, for the current and lagged periods of one and two years. The resultant correlation coefficients were tested for significance at the 5% level. The results show that there is no statistically significant correlation between the EVA intrinsic share values and the share price as quoted on the JSE in both the same and lagged periods. Hence we cannot conclude that EVA is an indicator of share price. / Thesis(MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.

No abstract available. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.

The analysis undertaken, firstly aims to identify the extent to which equities, their indexes and their derivatives priced in accordance with their fair value. Secondly, presuming that the traded values of the instruments do not in all instances equate to the fair value, the research aims to develop an effective means to identify and manage profitable opportunities arising from the mispricing. General concepts relating to profitability, trade identification, risk and continuous improvement of the processes are addressed. This includes recommendations on the management of the risks through a structured reporting process. The research looks at arbitrage trading in the South African market from the perspective of an empirical review into the market's participation in equity and equity derivative arbitrage. In addition to this empirical analysis, a time series analysis into various arbitrage strategies is conducted with the view to determining their relative profitability. The first component of the empirical research focuses on the arbitrage trading strategies adopted by a sample of 80 institutions. Where the institutions trade arbitrage strategies, the research undertook to establish what methods are used to identify, trade and manage the index arbitrage, single stock futures arbitrage, risk arbitrage, statistical arbitrage and volatility arbitrage trading opportunities that present themselves within the South African Market. Information gathered did not only focus on the actual trading strategies but also determined the relative cost structures, profitability and risk management processes that are employed to support these trading initiatives. The time series analysis focused on index futures, single stock futures, risk, dual listed and statistical arbitrage methods, and reflects the results before and after transaction costs. These arbitrage strategies were applied to the ALSI Top 40 index or its associated shares and generally spanned a period of about four years. Finally the research presents an arbitrage business model that is aimed at providing a blue print for arbitrage trading which covers: new arbitrage strategy, implementation, market risk, execution, profit, traders, cost Finally, the research provides a multiple regression method for application in identifying further arbitrage trading opportunities within the South African environment. / School of Business Leadaership / DBL

This paper examines bubbles on the JSE All Share Index as well as the critical time of the stock market crash from 2/01/ 2004 – 27/03/2014. The underlying hypothesis define bubbles as extreme and begin as a group of small events which grow in a super exponential form explained by a log periodic power law model (LPPL model). The hypothesis is based on the assumption of investors’ herding behavior, where investors collude by making investment decision correlated with their counterparties. The paper implements a Savitzky Golary Algorithm to detect peaks and calculate the critical time of the crash from the peaks. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is used to determine both the value of stock market price index at the critical time and the increase in the stock market price index over the time before the crash. The remaining parameters of the LPPL model are estimated using a Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. On the empirical results; 68 peaks were detected, and the LPPL model at the critical crash time is estimated 34736.586. Five bubbles are detected; the 15/8/2005 bubble, 28/5/2013 bubble, 23/8/2013 bubble, 5/11/2013, and 1/20/2014.

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / The main concern of this study was to evaluate whether an announcement to host major international sporting tournaments in South Africa is perceived by stock market investors to be associated with net economic benefits for the domestic stock market. If the economic activities associated with a tournament are perceived to be beneficial stock prices should react positively and if such activities are perceived to be bad then prices should react negatively; else there should be no reaction if such announcement conveys no relevant investment information for the stock market. The study applied an event study methodology to analyse the daily historical log returns of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) All Share Index (ALSI). It uses bidwinning announcements that South Africa would host three major international sporting tournaments, namely, the 1995 Rugby World Cup, 2003 Cricket World Cup, and 2010 Soccer World Cup. Event windows of 41 days, inclusive of announcement dates, are used to observe price reactions. The estimation samples consisted of 250 daily returns in the pre-event window period. Overall, the results showed that in South Africa all announcements led to a positive price reaction. Thus, the announcements for South Africa to be hosting these tournaments conveyed useful positive information to investors in the JSE.

Study project (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to verify the cumulative factors developed by the Graduate School of Business of the University of Stellenbosch when calculating prices per share (price) over the period 1970 to 2000, earnings per share (EPS), cash flows per share (CFS) and net asset values per share(NA V). All four are done in a time series format. This study project forms part ofa larger research project of the Graduate School of Business ofthe University of Stellenbosch (USB). The data was extracted from the database of the USB and also from companies' financial annual reports and/or directors' reports of the annual financial statements of each company included in the research for the specified periods. The aim of this study is to compare the calculated implicit cumulative factors used in practice with the specific cumulative factor calculated/used by the USB. The !NET prices were compared with the prices of the USB (after using the USB specific cumulative factors). The study also compares the NAV published by companies with the NAV obtained by the USB by dividing equity/weighted average number of shares duly adjusted by the cumulative factor. Companies with minor and major differences were observed but for the purpose of this study only the examples of companies with major differences have been indicated and properly documented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie studie is om die kumulatiewe faktore wat deur die Nagraadse Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch ontwikkel is, te verifieer, wanneer pryse per aandeel (prys) oor tydperk 1970 tot 2000, verdienste per aandeel, kontantvloei per aandeel en netto batewaardes per aandeel bereken word. Al vier word in 'n tydreeksformaat gedoen. Hierdie studieprojek vorm deel van 'n groter navorsingsprojek van die Nagraadse Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch (USB). Die data is van die USB databasis verkry, asook van maatskappye se finansiële jaarverslae en/of direkteure se verslae van die jaarlikse finansiële state van elke maatskappy wat in die navorsing vir die spesifieke tydperke ingesluit is. Die doelwit van hierdie studie is om die berekende implisiete kumulatiewe faktore wat in die praktyk gebruik word met die spesifieke kumulatiewe faktore wat deur die USB bereken/gebruik word, te vergelyk. Die !NET pryse is met die pryse van die USB (nadat die USB spesifieke kumulatiewe faktore gebruik is) vergelyk. Die studie vergelyk ook die netto batewaardes per aandeel wat deur die maatskappye gepubliseer is met die netto batewaardes per aandeel wat deur die USB verkry is, deur die aandeelhouersbelang/geweegde gemiddelde aantal aandele wat behoorlik aangepas is, met die kumulatiewe faktore te deel. Maatskappye met groter of kleiner verskille is waargeneem, maar vir die doel van hierdie studie is slegs die voorbeelde van maatskappye met groter verskille aangedui en behoorlik voorsien.

Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study is largely inspired by the work of Chris Brooks (1998). The volume of shares traded might be as important as the change in a market index since substantial price increases and decreases are often accompanied by heavy trading activity. An application of linear and non-linear Granger causality tests highlights evidence of bidirectional causality, although the relationship is stronger from volatility to volume than from volume to volatility. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear and non-linear models of volatility are evaluated and compared. The models are also augmented by the addition of a measure of lagged volume to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. The results indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to fairly small improvements in forecasting performance. The report also shows that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is vulnerable to financial turmoil in other major markets. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsverslag verken 'n aantal statistiese modelle vir die vooruitskatting van die daaglikse onbestendigheid in aandeleopbrengste van die totaal van alle aandele wat op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JSE) verhandel word. Hierdie studie is grotendeels geinspireer deur die werk van Chris Brooks (1998). Die volume aandele wat verhandel word, kan net so belangrik wees soos die verandering in 'n markindeks omdat beduidende prysverhogings en -verlagings dikwels met swaar verhandelingsaktiwiteite gepaard gaan. 'n Toepassing van liniere en nie-liniere Grangeroorsaaklikheidstoetse lewer bewys van tweerigting-oorsaaklikheid, hoewel daar 'n sterker verband van onbestendigheid na volume is, as van volume na onbestendigheid. Die buite-steekproef vooruitskattingsprestasie van verskeie liniere en nie-liniere modelle van onbestendigheid word geevalueer en vergelyk. Die modelle word aangevul deur die byvoeging van gesloerde volumes om meer algemene vooruitskattingsmodelle te vorm. Die resultate dui daarop dat aangevulde modelle van onbestendigheid met sloerings in volume slegs tot betreklik klein verbeteringe in vooruitskattingsprestasie lei. Die resultate dui daarop dat die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs kwesbaar is vir finansiele turbulensie in ander belangrike markte.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Private Equity is rapidly growing as an alternative asset class for investors in South Africa. Local and international literature presents overwhelming evidence to suggest that Private Equity offers superior risk-adjusted returns and portfolio diversification benefits. Private Equity managers charge quite substantial fees and investors might be concerned about the sustainability of the returns achieved by these firms. This research report addresses the question of how exactly Private Equity managers are able to achieve their superior returns. Although literature is limited and differing in opinion, several methods were identified as being used by managers to increase returns. A sample of 46 individual investments made by two Private Equity firms representing large buy-outs in South Africa was selected and analysed to quantitatively investigate the relationship between some of the identified sources of return and the Internal Rate of Return achieved on each investment. Surprisingly the relationships were not found to be as strong as expected and in many cases were not supportive of the findings in the literature. Only earnings growth and an increase in the earnings multiple had a significant impact on the IRR achieved according to the sample analysed. The author concludes that investing in Private Equity is too interdisciplinary to distil the sources of return into a few concise elements. Proprietary knowledge, expertise, superior management skills, relationships and experience all seem to play a role in providing Private Equity managers with a competitive edge over their public market counterparts. The sources identified in this report are very relevant. However, to empirically prove the individual relationship between each of those sources and the superior returns achieved by Private Equity managers remains a challenge, as their success is vested in their ability to artfully combine these methods in perpetually different combinations according to the merits of each situation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Private Ekwiteit is besig om vinnig te groei as alternatiewe bateklas vir beleggers in Suid-Afrika. Plaaslike en internasionale literatuur bied oorweldigende bewyse wat dui daarop dat Private Ekwiteit bogemiddelde risiko-aangepaste opbrengste sowel as portefeuljediversifikasie-voordele inhou. Private Ekwiteitbestuurders hef redelike hoë fooie en beleggers mag dalk bekommerd wees oor die vermoë van hierdie maatskappye om hul bogemiddelde opbrengste vol te hou. Hierdie navorsingsverslag adresseer die vraag oor hoe presies Private Ekwiteit- bestuurders dit regkry om bogemiddelde opbrengste te realiseer. Alhoewel die beskikbare literatuur beperk is en opinies daarin vervat verskil, is daar verskeie metodes geïdentifiseer wat bestuurders gebruik om opbrengste te verhoog. `n Steekproef is gekies wat bestaan uit 46 individuele beleggings verteenwoordigend van groot uitkoop-transaksies in Suid Afrika. `n Analise is gedoen om die verhouding tussen geïdentifiseerde bronne van opbrengs en die gerealiseerde Interne Opbrengskoers op `n kwantitatiewe wyse te ondersoek. Die bevindinge was verrassend in die sin dat die verhoudings nie so sterk was soos wat verwag was nie en in baie gevalle was dit glad nie ondersteunend van die bevindinge in die literatuur nie. Slegs verdienstegroei en toename in waardasie-veelvoude het `n beduidende impak gehad op die Interne Opbrengskoers wat behaal is volgens die steekproef wat ontleed is. Die skrywer kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat 'n belegging in Private Ekwiteit te interdissiplinêr is om die bronne van opbrengs te distilleer tot `n paar spesifieke elemente. Inligting, spesialiteits-kennis, fantastiese bestuursvaardighede, persoonlike verhoudings en ervaring is alles elemente wat aan Private Ekwiteit-bestuurders `n mededingende voordeel bied. Die bronne van opbrengs wat in hierdie navorsingsverslag hanteer word, is baie relevant. Dit bly egter `n uitdaging om empiries die individuele verhoudings tussen hierdie bronne en die bogemiddelde opbrengste wat behaal word te bewys, aangesien Private Ekwiteit-bestuurders se sukses juis lê in hul vermoë om kunstig hierdie verskeie metodes te kombineer in ewig veranderende kombinasies na aanleiding van die meriete van elke geval.