Ο σκοπός αυτής της διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι να συζητηθούν και να παρουσιαστούν οι υπάρχουσες τεχνικές που εφαρμόζουν την στρατηγική δειγματοληψίας βασισμένη σε γεγονότα για την εκτίμηση της κατάστασης των γραμμικών συστημάτων και να αξιολογηθεί πώς αυτές οι μέθοδοι επηρεάζουν τη συνολική απόδοση του συστήματος. Όπως ήδη αναφέρθηκε, περιορισμοί στον ρυθμό δειγματοληψίας ανακύπτουν στα NCS λόγω του περιορισμένου διαθέσιμου εύρους ζώνης. Αυτός ο περιορισμός στον αριθμό δειγμάτων επηρεάζει σαφώς το μέσο τετραγωνικό σφάλμα εκτίμησης, και η ερώτηση είναι πώς πρέπει να επιλέξουμε τις χρονικές στιγμές δειγματοληψίας προκειμένου να το ελαχιστοποιήσουμε. / The aim of this diploma thesis is to discuss and present existing techniques that apply event-triggered sampling to linear system state estimation, and to evaluate how these methods affect the overall performance of the system. As already mentioned, sampling rate constraints arise in NCS due to the limited bandwidth available. This restriction on the number of samples clearly affects the mean square estimation distortion error, and the question is how we should choose the sampling instants in order to minimize it.

abstract: Many methodological approaches have been utilized to predict student retention and persistence over the years, yet few have utilized a Bayesian framework. It is believed this is due in part to the absence of an established process for guiding educational researchers reared in a frequentist perspective into the realms of Bayesian analysis and educational data mining. The current study aimed to address this by providing a model-building process for developing a Bayesian network (BN) that leveraged educational data mining, Bayesian analysis, and traditional iterative model-building techniques in order to predict whether community college students will stop out at the completion of each of their first six terms. The study utilized exploratory and confirmatory techniques to reduce an initial pool of more than 50 potential predictor variables to a parsimonious final BN with only four predictor variables. The average in-sample classification accuracy rate for the model was 80% (Cohen's κ = 53%). The model was shown to be generalizable across samples with an average out-of-sample classification accuracy rate of 78% (Cohen's κ = 49%). The classification rates for the BN were also found to be superior to the classification rates produced by an analog frequentist discrete-time survival analysis model. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Educational Psychology 2015

A distância de visibilidade de parada deve ser garantida ao longo de toda a extensão de uma rodovia por questões de segurança. Elementos da seção transversal podem se tornar obstruções que interferem nas distâncias de visibilidade do projeto. Este é o caso do uso de barreiras ao invés de canteiros centrais em rodovias bidirecionais, especialmente ao longo de curvas à esquerda. Desta forma, este trabalho analisa o posicionamento de barreiras em cenários hipotéticos aclives planos e declives com uso de simulações gráficas tridimensionais. O afastamento lateral da barreira, em relação à pista de rolamento, foi definido em função de cada velocidade de projeto e de cada raio de curva horizontal analisados. Os diagramas gerados foram comparados com modelo de afastamento de objetos fixos em curvas horizontais, presente como recomendações em manuais nacionais. As diferenças encontradas indicam a viabilidade da metodologia utilizada, em que o projeto foi considerado como um todo, o qual se desenvolve tridimensionalmente. / Stopping Sight Distance must be guaranteed throughout of a highway for safety reasons. However, cross section elements can become obstructions which interfere on design sight distances. This occurs when barriers are used instead of medians on bidirectional highways, especially along left curves. Therefore, this paper analyzes the barriers placement on hypothetical scenarios upgrades, plans and downgrades using three-dimensional graphics simulations. The lateral offset of the barrier in relation to the roadway was defined according to each design speed and each radius of the horizontal curve analysis. For each scenario were generated diagrams, which use compared with offset model of fixed objects on horizontal curves presents as recommendation in national manuals. The differences indicate the viability of the methodology used, where the project was considered as a whole, which develops three-dimensionally.

No presente trabalho é apresentado o Teste de Omissões Voluntárias (Square-Skipping Test, SST), uma versão de papel e lápis da tarefa computadorizada do sinal inibitório. Na primeira parte do trabalho, são relatados estudos que utilizaram uma tarefa computadorizada do sinal inibitório com estímulos excitatórios e inibitórios apresentados visualmente em um procedimento lateralizado. As estratégias de esperar o sinal inibitório foram controladas com sucesso mediante o controle "on-line" da estabilidade dos tempos de reação ao sinal excitatório. Um dos objetivos foi elucidar algum possível fator comum subjacente ao desempenho na tarefa do sinal inibitório e no Teste da tarefa Dupla. Os tempos de reação ao sinal inibitório não foram afetados pela lateralização, enquanto que os tempos de reação ao sinal excitatório direito foram os mais rápidos. Esta vantagem, a qual parece envolver especialização hemisférica e comunicação interhemisférica, correlacionou com a perda no desempenho da tarefa de box-crossing quando combinada com a tarefa verbal no Teste da Tarefa Dupla. A diferença Parte B-menos-Parte A do Trail Making Test correlacionou com os tempos de reação simples. Os resultados também sugerem a associação entre o tempo de reação simples e funções executivas. Foi descartada uma assimetria no sentido do deslocamento da atenção entre hemicampos para explicar a vantagem dos tempos de reação ao sinal excitatório direito. O tempo de reação simples parece ser uma medida de capacidade executiva. A comparação do desempenho de adultos idosos e jovens, medido pela tarefa computadorizada, demostrou que o controle inibitório não foi afetado de forma significativa pela idade. Na segunda parte do trabalho, é apresentado o SST, o qual permite obter de forma prática e rápida, medidas da habilidade inibitória e outras capacidades executivas tais como a flexibilidade cognitiva, a atenção concentrada e a velocidade na busca visual. O SST foi validado mediante a comparação com o desempenho na tarefa computadorizada do sinal inibitório. A execução do SST requer marcar com ‘Xs’ quadradinhos alinhados em um caminho irregular impressos em uma folha A4 (Parte D), sendo que nas Partes A, B e C devem-se omitir alguns quadradinhos indicados. Na terceira tentativa do SST deve ser escrita a seqüência de dígitos ‘1, 2, 3’. A correlação com o teste computadorizado do sinal inibitório sugeriu que o controle inibitório seria medido pela Parte D preenchida com a seqüência de dígitos (Parte D3). A idade não afetou de forma significativa o desempenho na Parte D3. O fator idade parece afetar seletivamente o desempenho nas diferentes partes do SST; p. ex. na Parte A1, que correlacionou com o coeficiente de atenção concentrada do Teste de Toulouse-Pièron. Para evitar os efeitos da prática sobre o desempenho no SST, recomenda-se a execução do Teste da Tarefa Dupla antes da execução do SST, e de preferência na mesma sessão experimental. / The present study aims to contribute to the understanding of the inhibitory ability, within the framework of the neuropsychology. The objective was to develop a paper-and-pencil test to assess the ability to stop an action in a simple and rapid way. A computerized stop signal task was used to validate the test. In the first part of this work, studies that involved the computerized stop signal task are presented. The result of these studies allowed to raise some theoretical issues. The paper-and-pencil test is presented in the second part of this work. In the Experiment 1 the aim was to control experimentally the strategy of waiting for the stop-signal on a lateralized stop signal task, by means of an algorithm, which controlled, on-line, the variation of response latencies for the go-signal (GSRT). Thirty-four healthy volunteers participated in this study. The GRST of the group that performed the task without the algorithm were significantly higher than the GSRT of the group that performed the task with the algorithm, whereas the stop-signal reaction times did not reach significant differences between groups. This procedure provided more stable reaction times throughout the task, and shifted the probability of responding on stop-trials from 0.364 to 0.479. The Experiment 2 studied the relationship between reaction time, laterality, and executive functions were examined by employing two computerized tasks with lateralized visual stimuli. Simple reaction time (SRT) was correlated with the Part B-minus-A difference of Trail Making Test (TMT). No significant difference was found between left and right SRT. Reaction times for left go-signals of the Stop-task were longer than reaction times for right go-signals. The ratio of left go-signal-minus left SRT to right go-signal-minus-right SRT was correlated with the loss in the visuospatial component when it was combined with a concurrent verbal task in the Dual-Task Test. Results suggest association between SRT and executive functions, and the involvement of hemispheric specialization and interhemispheric transfer in both, the stop signal task and the Dual-Tasks Test. Results from Experiment 3 permit to discard the possibility that the observed right visual field advantage observed was due to the orienting of attention across hemifields. The left GSRT were significantly slower than right GSRT. The right GRST advantage was not due to an attentional shift between left and right visual hemifields. In the Experiment 4, the stopping ability of older people in the computerized stop task was explored. There were no significant differences between the stopping ability of older and younger adults. The Square-skipping Test (SST) a paper-an-pencil version of the stop signal computerized task. is described in the second part of this study. The SST is divided in four parts. The effect of the administration of the different parts of the SST was studied in Experiment 5. The results allow for the use of the four parts in the same trial, since there was no effect of order of administration. In Experiment 6 it was studied the effect of placing a digit sequence on the third trial of the test, instead of the X’s. It seems that a greater degree on the inhibitory ability is necessary to perform the task with the sequence "1, 2, 3", than with the sequence "3, 2, 1". Thus, the sequence "1, 2, 3" was used in the final version of the SST. The practice effects of the Dual-Task Test on the SST was studied in Experiment 7. The interaction Group x Trial showed a general decrease on the performance of participants without previous practice in the Dual-task Test, contrasting with the performance of participants with within-session practice, which showed a clear digit sequence load effect. The aim of Experiment 8 was to know possible aging effects in the performance of SST. A general decrease was observed in the performance of older adults compared with performance of young adults; the interaction Group x Trial showed that the slope of the curves were different. The performance in SST is significantly affected by age. Performance in SST correlated with performance in the stop signal and the SRT tasks, respectively. Performance in SST also correlates with TMT, with the visuospatial component of the mu index of the Dual-task and with the attention coefficient of the Toulouse-Pièron Test. The best predictor of the stopping ability was the performance on the Part D with the digit sequence (Part D3). Thus, SST seems to be a useful neuropsychological tool for the assessment of several executive functions, including the stopping ability, mental flexibility, speed for visual search and focused attention.

A perda de energia de íons na matéria é um tópico de grande interesse não apenas por suas aplicações diretas em técnicas de análises de materiais bem como nos estudos teóricos das interações íon-átomo. No entanto, o poder de freamento de sólidos para íons pesados é ainda pouco compreendido especialmente para baixas velocidades devido principalmente a complicada dependência nos números atômicos do meio freador e do íon incidente. Neste trabalho são apresentados os dados experimentais para o freamento de Cu em Au na região de velocidades de 2 - 4% da velocidade da luz. Os dados experimentais foram obtidos com uso da técnica de espalhamento elástico, onde um feixe primário de 16O e 28Si, com energias entre 35 - 52 MeV e 49 - 79 MeV respectivamente, foram tilizados para produzir íons de Cu em recuo a partir de um alvo fino ( 160 g/cm2). O feixe primário espalhado é detectado a 60o por um detector de Si, produzindo átomos de Cu do alvo recuando em um ângulo denido pela cinemática da colisão elástica. Os íons em recuo medidos em coincidência temporal com o feixe primário espalhado compõe o feixe secundário de interesse. A perda de energia, em uma folha de Au com espessura em torno de 530 g/cm2, foi obtida medindo-se a energia do feixe secundário com um detector de Si, com e sem a folha de Au interceptando os íons em recuo. Os dados experimentais foram comparados com teorias e modelos semi-empíricos aplicáveis a esse caso. Bom acordo entre a previsão da Aproximação de Convolução Unitária e nossos dados experimentais é observado. / The energy loss of ions in materials is an important issue not only because of its direct applications in analytic techniques of materials but also for studying the basics of ion-atom interactions. Nevertheless, the Stopping Power of heavy ions in solids is still poorly understood which is especially true at low velocities mainly due to the complicated dependence on the atomic numbers of the stopper medium and of the stopping ion. In this work we present new experimental data for Copper ions slowing down in Gold foil in the velocity range of 2 to 4% of the velocity of light. Experimental data were obtained using the elastic scattering technique, where primary beams of 16O and 28Si, with energies from 35 to 52 MeV and 49 to 79 MeV respectively, were used to scatter Cu íons from a thin target ( 160 g/cm2). The scattered primary beam is detected at 60 with a Si detector, producing recoiling atoms of the target in an angle given by the elastic scattering kinematics. The recoiling ions in temporal coincidence with the scattered primary beam will compose the secondary beam. The energy loss, in a gold foil with thickness about 530 g/cm2, was obtained by measuring the energy of the secondary beam with a Si detector, with and without the Au foil intercepting the recoiling ions. Experimental results were compared with theories and semi-empirical models applied to this case. Good agreement between Unitary Convolution Approximation (UCA) prediction and our data is observed.

L’imagerie par résonance magnétique pondérée en diffusion est une modalité unique sensible aux mouvements microscopiques des molécules d’eau dans les tissus biologiques. Il est possible d’utiliser les caractéristiques de ce mouvement pour inférer la structure macroscopique des faisceaux de la matière blanche du cerveau. La technique, appelée tractographie, est devenue l’outil de choix pour étudier cette structure de façon non invasive. Par exemple, la tractographie est utilisée en planification neurochirurgicale et pour le suivi du développement de maladies neurodégénératives.Dans cette thèse, nous exposons certains des biais introduits lors de reconstructions par tractographie, et des méthodes sont proposées pour les réduire. D’abord, nous utilisons des connaissances anatomiques a priori pour orienter la reconstruction. Ainsi, nous montrons que l’information anatomique sur la nature des tissus permet d'estimer des faisceaux anatomiquement plausibles et de réduire les biais dans l’estimation de structures complexes de la matière blanche. Ensuite, nous utilisons des connnaissances microstructurelles a priori dans la reconstruction, afin de permettre à la tractographie de suivre le mouvement des molécules d’eau non seulement le long des faisceaux, mais aussi dans des milieux microstructurels spécifiques. La tractographie peut ainsi distinguer différents faisceaux, réduire les erreurs de reconstruction et permettre l’étude de la microstructure le long de la matière blanche. Somme toute, nous montrons que l’utilisation de connaissances anatomiques et microstructurelles a priori, en tractographie, augmente l’exactitude des reconstructions de la matière blanche du cerveau. / Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging is a unique imaging modality sensitive to the microscopic movement of water molecules in biological tissues. By characterizing the movement of water molecules, it is possible to infer the macroscopic neuronal pathways of the brain. The technique, so-called tractography, had become the tool of choice to study non-invasively the human brain's white matter in vivo. For instance, it has been used in neurosurgical intervention planning and in neurodegenerative diseases monitoring. In this thesis, we report biases from current tractography reconstruction and suggest methods to reduce them. We first use anatomical priors, derived from a high resolution T1-weighted image, to guide tractography. We show that knowledge of the nature of biological tissue helps tractography to reconstruct anatomically valid neuronal pathways, and reduces biases in the estimation of complex white matter regions. We then use microstructural priors, derived from the state-of-the-art diffusionweighted magnetic resonance imaging protocol, in the tractography reconstruction process. This allows tractography to follow the movement of water molecules not only along neuronal pathways, but also in a microstructurally specific environment. Thus, the tractography distinguishes more accurately neuronal pathways and reduces reconstruction errors. Moreover, it provides the mean to study white matter microstructure characteristics along neuronal pathways. Altogether, we show that anatomical and microstructural priors used during the tractography process improve brain’s white matter reconstruction.

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

A perda de energia de íons na matéria é um tópico de grande interesse não apenas por suas aplicações diretas em técnicas de análises de materiais bem como nos estudos teóricos das interações íon-átomo. No entanto, o poder de freamento de sólidos para íons pesados é ainda pouco compreendido especialmente para baixas velocidades devido principalmente a complicada dependência nos números atômicos do meio freador e do íon incidente. Neste trabalho são apresentados os dados experimentais para o freamento de Cu em Au na região de velocidades de 2 - 4% da velocidade da luz. Os dados experimentais foram obtidos com uso da técnica de espalhamento elástico, onde um feixe primário de 16O e 28Si, com energias entre 35 - 52 MeV e 49 - 79 MeV respectivamente, foram tilizados para produzir íons de Cu em recuo a partir de um alvo fino ( 160 g/cm2). O feixe primário espalhado é detectado a 60o por um detector de Si, produzindo átomos de Cu do alvo recuando em um ângulo denido pela cinemática da colisão elástica. Os íons em recuo medidos em coincidência temporal com o feixe primário espalhado compõe o feixe secundário de interesse. A perda de energia, em uma folha de Au com espessura em torno de 530 g/cm2, foi obtida medindo-se a energia do feixe secundário com um detector de Si, com e sem a folha de Au interceptando os íons em recuo. Os dados experimentais foram comparados com teorias e modelos semi-empíricos aplicáveis a esse caso. Bom acordo entre a previsão da Aproximação de Convolução Unitária e nossos dados experimentais é observado. / The energy loss of ions in materials is an important issue not only because of its direct applications in analytic techniques of materials but also for studying the basics of ion-atom interactions. Nevertheless, the Stopping Power of heavy ions in solids is still poorly understood which is especially true at low velocities mainly due to the complicated dependence on the atomic numbers of the stopper medium and of the stopping ion. In this work we present new experimental data for Copper ions slowing down in Gold foil in the velocity range of 2 to 4% of the velocity of light. Experimental data were obtained using the elastic scattering technique, where primary beams of 16O and 28Si, with energies from 35 to 52 MeV and 49 to 79 MeV respectively, were used to scatter Cu íons from a thin target ( 160 g/cm2). The scattered primary beam is detected at 60 with a Si detector, producing recoiling atoms of the target in an angle given by the elastic scattering kinematics. The recoiling ions in temporal coincidence with the scattered primary beam will compose the secondary beam. The energy loss, in a gold foil with thickness about 530 g/cm2, was obtained by measuring the energy of the secondary beam with a Si detector, with and without the Au foil intercepting the recoiling ions. Experimental results were compared with theories and semi-empirical models applied to this case. Good agreement between Unitary Convolution Approximation (UCA) prediction and our data is observed.

My PhD thesis concentrates on the field of stochastic analysis, with focus on stochastic optimization and applications in finance. It is composed of two parts: the first part studies an optimal stopping problem, and the second part studies an optimal control problem. The first topic considers a one-dimensional transient and downwards drifting diffusion process X, and detects the optimal times of a random time(denoted as ρ). In particular, we consider two classes of random times: (1) the last time when the process exits a certain level l; (2) the time when the process reaches its maximum. For each random time, we solve the optimization problem infτ E[λ(τ- ρ)+ +(1-λ)(ρ - τ)+] overall all stopping times. For the last exit time, the process should stop optimally when it runs below some fixed level k the first time, where k is the solution of an explicit defined equation. For the ultimate maximum time, the process should stop optimally when it runs below a boundary which is the maximal positive solution (if exists) of a first-order ordinary differential equation which lies below the line λs for all s > 0 . The second topic solves an optimal consumption and investment problem for a risk-averse investor who is sensitive to declines than to increases of standard living (i.e., the investor is loss averse), and the investment opportunities are constant. We use the tools of stochastic control and duality methods to solve the resulting free-boundary problem in an infinite time horizon. Briefly, the investor consumes constantly when holding a moderate amount of wealth. In bliss time, the investor increases the consumption so that the consumption-wealth ratio reaches some fixed minimum level; in gloom time, the investor decreases the consumption gradually. Moreover, high loss aversion tends to raise the consumption-wealth ratio, but cut the investment-wealth ratio overall.

The present work reports the experimental evidence of anomalous energy loss, energy straggling, and the corresponding ion-induced electron emission yields of channeled protons in silicon.