New or improved decision analysis tools are developed in this thesis to address strategic policy analysis with specific focus on two topics: strategic conflict analysis and region-performance comparisons. A strategic conflict refers to a situation in which two or more decision makers (DMs) are to make a decision that affects issues over which they have different preferences. Various forms of strategic conflict exist all around us, in areas such as environmental management, international relations, economic competition, and relationships among individuals. The graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is an advanced and comprehensive tool to systematically study strategic conflicts. A well-known decision tool, the analytic network process (ANP) is adapted for use in strategic conflict analysis and a comparison of the performance of ANP with GMCR is carried out. Both methods are applied to an international trading conflict between the United States and China over the importation of television sets into the US in order to gain strategic insights about this dispute using the two different but complementary approaches. A country's overall performance comparison with respect to different kinds of indices such as economic, environmental and political indices constitutes another interesting topic for strategic policy analysis. An index aggregation approach is proposed to compare BRICSAM countries, a populous rapidly-growing economic group of nations consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations), and Mexico with G7 (Group of Seven), the most developed country club including Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and the United States. A data-envelopment-analysis (DEA) based approach is proposed to aggregate different ranking indices for BRICSAM and the G7 countries. The proposed method can provide a fair overall assessment of a country's standing by maximizing its possibility of obtaining the best evaluation score. Finally, a framework to carry out generic strategic analysis for regions' competence analysis is designed based upon the theory of generic strategic analysis proposed by Porter (1980). This is a well-known approach for use in business competence analysis. The basic idea is to carry out generic strategic analysis in policy studies and two decision tools, DEA and the analytic hierarchy process, are employed to quantify the analysis of competence efficiency and potentiality, respectively. A case study of the competence analysis of provinces in China is used to demonstrate the analysis procedure.

New or improved decision analysis tools are developed in this thesis to address strategic policy analysis with specific focus on two topics: strategic conflict analysis and region-performance comparisons. A strategic conflict refers to a situation in which two or more decision makers (DMs) are to make a decision that affects issues over which they have different preferences. Various forms of strategic conflict exist all around us, in areas such as environmental management, international relations, economic competition, and relationships among individuals. The graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is an advanced and comprehensive tool to systematically study strategic conflicts. A well-known decision tool, the analytic network process (ANP) is adapted for use in strategic conflict analysis and a comparison of the performance of ANP with GMCR is carried out. Both methods are applied to an international trading conflict between the United States and China over the importation of television sets into the US in order to gain strategic insights about this dispute using the two different but complementary approaches. A country's overall performance comparison with respect to different kinds of indices such as economic, environmental and political indices constitutes another interesting topic for strategic policy analysis. An index aggregation approach is proposed to compare BRICSAM countries, a populous rapidly-growing economic group of nations consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations), and Mexico with G7 (Group of Seven), the most developed country club including Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and the United States. A data-envelopment-analysis (DEA) based approach is proposed to aggregate different ranking indices for BRICSAM and the G7 countries. The proposed method can provide a fair overall assessment of a country's standing by maximizing its possibility of obtaining the best evaluation score. Finally, a framework to carry out generic strategic analysis for regions' competence analysis is designed based upon the theory of generic strategic analysis proposed by Porter (1980). This is a well-known approach for use in business competence analysis. The basic idea is to carry out generic strategic analysis in policy studies and two decision tools, DEA and the analytic hierarchy process, are employed to quantify the analysis of competence efficiency and potentiality, respectively. A case study of the competence analysis of provinces in China is used to demonstrate the analysis procedure.

The notion that each state in the international system approaches matters of war and peace somewhat differently because they each possess a unique strategic culture is not a new or obscure one – but it nevertheless remains controversial. While some scholars dismiss the utility or practicality of examining states’ cultures when seeking to explain or predict those states’ patterns of strategic decision-making, even amongst those who accept that we should pay attention to cultural differences between states when carrying out strategic analysis there remains a frustratingly eclectic range of offerings from scholars regarding how best to do so. In short, significant uncertainty remains regarding both whether strategic culture should be used as an analytical tool and, if it is so utilized, how one should go about doing so. This thesis therefore explores the concept of strategic culture in great detail, both theoretical and empirical. The opening three chapters examine why the more traditional rationalist/materialistic theories should not exclusively dominate strategic analysis, then the various existing strategic cultural offerings are considered and critiqued and, finally, a new conceptual model for strategic cultural analysis is proposed which draws from the hitherto largely neglected psychological and sociological literature. Both of these fields, it is submitted in Chapter 3, have spent more time and effort developing ways of understanding and analyzing culture than the field of IR has to date, and therefore the models and methods debated and developed in these fields should, it is argued, be ‘imported’ into IR to drive further strategic cultural research. The thesis then moves in the following six chapters to consider Australia’s strategic culture. The purpose of this part of the thesis is two-fold: first, it illustrates how the model offered in Chapter 3 works and, by implication, suggests how scholars may go about applying it to other cases. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the latter six chapters explore the twists and turns of Australia’s substantive strategic decision-making over the course of the last century or more, thereby explaining how Australia’s strategic history can be understood from a cultural perspective. / Thesis (Ph.D, Political Studies) -- Queen's University, 2011-09-15 11:17:19.326

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis strives to shed light on the genuine significance of the current transformation of the U.S. foreign and strategic policy. In essence, this thesis concludes that the Bush doctrine of preemption is inconsistent with the American strategic culture and view of the use of force displayed throughout the American foreign policy ever since the Truman administration. Although not a revolution per se in the American goals, the new foreign policy represents a radical change in the manner to pursue them. While promoting a unilateralist foreign policy and revived "warfighting" strategies, the current administration takes old rationales a step further. By elevating preemption from the tactical to strategic level, the doctrine transforms a last resort policy option into a primary offensive strategy with destabilizing consequences for international relations. The analysis concludes that the increased authority of the hard-line approach in the American foreign and security policy is circumstantial, and the likelihood of its endurance is unrealistic. The international system comprises built-in constraints that raise the cost of isolationist and unilateralist impulses to unbearable levels in the long term. These constraints are the end result of the American national values' projection at international level. / Civilian, Romania Ministry of Foreign Affairs

This dissertation examined how complexity theory might offer insight into the behavior of a population of large-scale networked organizational groups. Academic medical centers (AMCs), a large-scale social and policy system that plays a key role in the education of physicians, the conduct of research, and the provision of specialized clinical care, were chosen as an example to demonstrate the enhanced understanding that can be obtained from the application of complexity theory. Graphical and nonlinear mathematical tools were chosen to place this research study in contrast to studies that metaphorically apply the concepts of complexity theory to social systems. Complexity science suggests that AMCs will demonstrate both nonlinearity and the emergence of patterned behaviors characteristic of self-organization in complex adaptive systems. Changes in the fiscal environment of AMCs, influenced by federal policy and the health care delivery market, were hypothesized to be among the factors that mediated changes in AMCs' activities and organizational relationships during a twenty-year period. The collection and examination of multiple indicators within the framework of a study model allowed development of a rich description of the AMC system and identification of patterned behaviors. Graphical analysis was used to identify underlying periodic and chaotic attractors in the AMC system. A logistic equation was used to confirm the presence of nonlinearity. The presence of nonlinearity and the emergence of patterned behavior within schools in different managed care market groups suggested that it is appropriate to treat the population of AMCs as a complex adaptive system. The results of this research study also showed that AMCs have responded to the rise of managed care in the health care delivery marketplace by leveraging their institutional strengths. Identification of nonlinear properties offers a new perspective for understanding the behavior of a population of networked organizations, the management of large-scale systems, strategic planning, and policy formulation. Until researchers and managers recognize the coexistence of nonlinear and linear processes in social systems, they will make decisions on the basis of incomplete information. / Ph. D.

This thesis is about the importance of nuclear weapons to Australian defence and strategic policy in Southeast Asia between 1953 and 1973. It argues that Australia's approach to nuclear issues during this period, and its attitude towards the development and acquisition of nuclear weapons in particular, was aimed exclusively at achieving narrowly defined political objectives. Australia was thus never interested in possessing nuclear weapons, and any moves seemingly taken along these lines were calculated to obtain political concessions - not as part of a 'bid' for their acquirement. This viewpoint sits at odds with the consensus position of several focused studies of Australian nuclear policy published in the past decade. Although in general these studies correctly argue that Australia maintained the 'nuclear weapons option' until the early 1970s, all have misrepresented the motivation for this by contending that the government viewed such weapons in exclusively military terms. The claim that Australia was interested only in the military aspect of nuclear weapons does not pay due attention to the fact that defence planning was based entirely on the provision of conventional forces to Southeast Asia. Accordingly, the military was interested first and foremost with issues arising from extant conventional planning concepts, and the government was chiefly concerned about obtaining allied assurances of support for established plans. The most pressing requirement for Australia therefore was gaining sway over allied countries. However, the Australian government was never in a position to overtly influence more powerful allies against an undertaking that could escalate into limited war, and was similarly incapable of inducing its allies to retain forces in the region in spite of competing pressures. It was for this reason that Australia would seek to manipulate the nuclear weapons option. Indeed, access to such weapons offered Australia the opportunity to achieve greater integration in formulating allied planning, while the threat to manufacture them provided a means of convincing regional partners to maintain a presence in the area. The thesis therefore concludes that Australia carefully presented its options for procuring nuclear weapons to gain influence over its allies in response to strategic developments in Southeast Asia.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-08-16Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:15:44Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 souza_mcb_me_mar.pdf: 500229 bytes, checksum: de4a7d7ff254b0a83ce120d866d564e5 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo fazer uma análise da política estratégica dos Estados Unidos para a América do Sul, do governo Clinton ao governo Bush. O trabalho versa sobre os principais temas que configuram as abordagens estratégicas norte-americanas para a região, dentro de um contexto mais amplo das mudanças pelas quais passaram a segurança internacional no final da guerra fria. Os Estados Unidos, ao não mais encontrarem no sistema internacional um adversário tradicional ou compatível com seus delineamentos estratégicos, tiveram que redesenhar e redefinir suas prioridades para a segurança nacional. Dessa forma, ameaças transnacionais foram, gradualmente, abordadas como uma das novas prioridades para garantir a segurança nacional do país. Com relação à América do Sul, partindo das estratégias norte-americanas para o Hemisfério Ocidental, os temas elencados nas políticas para a região são: o tráfico de drogas, a promoção da democracia, abertura de mercados, tráfico e produção de drogas, corrupção, lavagem de dinheiro e terrorismo. Estes temas percorreram todos os planejamentos estratégicos do governo Clinton, através de sua agenda multilateral, dentro do contexto da estratégia de Engajamento e Expansão, a qual buscou vincular os países aos temas sensíveis à sua segurança nacional, através de vários encontros Hemisféricos. No caso da América Latina, as Cúpulas das Américas e suas reuniões específicas, como as Reuniões de Ministros de Defesa das Américas, foram meios de se obter esta vinculação política. Estes temas permaneceram presentes no governo George W. Bush, entretanto, a abordagem estratégica para a região enfatizou a possível ligação entre estas questões presentes, como o tráfico de drogas, lavagem de dinheiro e corrupção; ao terrorismo internacional, o qual sobe ao topo das prioridades da política estratégica norte-americana / This research aims to analyze the strategic policy of the United States to South America, from the Clinton administration to the Bush administration. This paper discusses major issues that shape strategic approaches within the U.S. for the region within a broader context of changes which came to international security at the end of the Cold War. The United States, which no longer met in the international system a traditional adversary compatible with its strategic designs, had to redesign and redefine its priorities for national security. Thus, transnational threats have been gradually addressed as one of the new priorities to ensure national security of the country. Regarding South America, departing from North American strategies for the Western Hemisphere, the topics listed in the strategic policies for the region are: drug trafficking, maintenance of democracy, open markets, trafficking and drug production, corruption, money laundering and terrorism. These subjects went through all the strategic plans of the Clinton administration, through its multilateral agenda, within the context of the Strategy of Engagement and Expansion, which sought to bind the countries to sensitive issues to its national security through various hemispheric meetings. In the case of Latin America, the Summits of the Americas and its specific meetings such as the Meetings of Ministers of Defense of the Americas were ways to get this linking policy. These themes remained present under the George W. Bush’s administration, however, the strategic approach to the region emphasized the possible link between these issues in the region, such as drug trafficking, money laundering and corruption, to international terrorism, which rises to the top of the priorities of US strategic policy

This thesis is a comparative study of how elites in Sweden and Poland approach and make sense of EU membership. It begins with the observation that the public debates in several EU member countries are becoming increasingly politicized around a dichotomy, i.e. enthusiasm and skepticism vis-à-vis European integration. Whereas a lot of research in this field covers the characteristics of the European integration process itself, fewer studies focus upon the cognitive complexity involved in national strategic policy choices. The aim of this thesis is to explore, compare and contrast the organizational and cognitive aspects of how Sweden and Poland entered the EU and thereby to contribute to an understanding of how national policymakers in Europe believe that national and supranational integration can work together. The theoretical point of departure is Stein Rokkan’s model of political integration, which emphasizes the importance of functional and territorial political cleavages in the development of modern European nation states. The model is used to identify political actors and structures that are transnationalizing forces in Europe and to determine in what ways they form a challenge to national governments in the process of adaptation to the EU. Representing different theoretical points of intersection in the Rokkanian model, these challenges are defined as Integration, Trade and Industry, Functional Regionalism and Territorial Regionalism. The empirical analysis builds on these theoretical categories and covers three different areas. First, the ways in which adaptation to the EU was organized by the governments of Sweden (1988-1994) and Poland (1998-2004) are scrutinized. Second, documents concerning the strategic policy deliberation of both organizations are analyzed in the light of Rokkanian integration categories. Third, the results of two sets of research interviews, one in each country, are analyzed. A major conclusion drawn in the study is that Rokkanian integration theory holds the key to an understanding of how national policymakers believe that European integration can be segmented and how supranational integration in the economic sphere can evolve separately from other areas of social and political integration. Although from very different countries and political experiences, elites in Sweden and Poland show remarkable cognitive similarities. Another contribution to a cross-national understanding of adaptation to the EU is the cognitive model, which is developed on the basis of empirical study. The model expands upon and goes beyond the simple dichotomy of Enthusiasts and Skeptics in the discussion about European integration. Two new categories are introduced and defined as Voluntarists and Pragmatists. The argument is that new cognitive categories are necessary to improve the description and analysis of how national policy makers in Europe set up long-term political goals and manage complex issues in the process of European integration.

Orientador: Luis Fernando Ayerbe / Banca: Rafael Duarte Villa / Banca: Reginaldo Mattar Nasser / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com Unesp/Unicamp/ Puc-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo fazer uma análise da política estratégica dos Estados Unidos para a América do Sul, do governo Clinton ao governo Bush. O trabalho versa sobre os principais temas que configuram as abordagens estratégicas norte-americanas para a região, dentro de um contexto mais amplo das mudanças pelas quais passaram a segurança internacional no final da guerra fria. Os Estados Unidos, ao não mais encontrarem no sistema internacional um adversário tradicional ou compatível com seus delineamentos estratégicos, tiveram que redesenhar e redefinir suas prioridades para a segurança nacional. Dessa forma, ameaças transnacionais foram, gradualmente, abordadas como uma das novas prioridades para garantir a segurança nacional do país. Com relação à América do Sul, partindo das estratégias norte-americanas para o Hemisfério Ocidental, os temas elencados nas políticas para a região são: o tráfico de drogas, a promoção da democracia, abertura de mercados, tráfico e produção de drogas, corrupção, lavagem de dinheiro e terrorismo. Estes temas percorreram todos os planejamentos estratégicos do governo Clinton, através de sua agenda multilateral, dentro do contexto da estratégia de Engajamento e Expansão, a qual buscou vincular os países aos temas sensíveis à sua segurança nacional, através de vários encontros Hemisféricos. No caso da América Latina, as Cúpulas das Américas e suas reuniões específicas, como as Reuniões de Ministros de Defesa das Américas, foram meios de se obter esta vinculação política. Estes temas permaneceram presentes no governo George W. Bush, entretanto, a abordagem estratégica para a região enfatizou a possível ligação entre estas questões presentes, como o tráfico de drogas, lavagem de dinheiro e corrupção; ao terrorismo internacional, o qual sobe ao topo das prioridades da política estratégica norte-americana / Abstract: This research aims to analyze the strategic policy of the United States to South America, from the Clinton administration to the Bush administration. This paper discusses major issues that shape strategic approaches within the U.S. for the region within a broader context of changes which came to international security at the end of the Cold War. The United States, which no longer met in the international system a traditional adversary compatible with its strategic designs, had to redesign and redefine its priorities for national security. Thus, transnational threats have been gradually addressed as one of the new priorities to ensure national security of the country. Regarding South America, departing from North American strategies for the Western Hemisphere, the topics listed in the strategic policies for the region are: drug trafficking, maintenance of democracy, open markets, trafficking and drug production, corruption, money laundering and terrorism. These subjects went through all the strategic plans of the Clinton administration, through its multilateral agenda, within the context of the Strategy of Engagement and Expansion, which sought to bind the countries to sensitive issues to its national security through various hemispheric meetings. In the case of Latin America, the Summits of the Americas and its specific meetings such as the Meetings of Ministers of Defense of the Americas were ways to get this linking policy. These themes remained present under the George W. Bush's administration, however, the strategic approach to the region emphasized the possible link between these issues in the region, such as drug trafficking, money laundering and corruption, to international terrorism, which rises to the top of the priorities of US strategic policy / Mestre