With the enlargement of the EU to 27 member states in 2007, this thesis considers the transition process of Romania and Bulgaria from the fall of communism in 1989 to accession to the European Union in 2007. The research focuses on the political and economic reforms of Romania and Bulgaria, using a chronological approach, to explore the concept of EU impact on countries in transition. The thesis focuses specifically on the ideas of European conditionality and leverage, in order to answer questions on the importance of the EU’s external influence on these two countries, as well as discussing future implications for candidate countries in transition.

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Cette thèse porte sur les modèles à densité pour les temps de défaut et leur application au risque de crédit et de contrepartie. La première partie est une contribution théorique à l'étude des projections sur différentes filtrations de la densité de Radon-Nikodym, sous la forme d'exponentielle de Doléans-Dade, intervenant lors de changements de mesure. Le résultat principal est la caractérisation des changements de mesure qui préservent l'immersion, obtenue par application de nos formules de projection. La deuxième partie a pour objet une dynamisation informationnelle du modèle de copule gaussienne statique appliqué à un portefeuille de crédit, pouvant être vue comme un modèle à densité permettant de traîter de la couverture des CDO par CDS ou bien du risque de contrepartie sur les dérivés de crédit. Les principales contributions sont l'introduction de la perspective dynamique , qui permet de donner une justification théorique aux bump-sensibilités de copule gaussienne utilisées par les praticiens, et l'application aux calculs de CVA sur un CDS. / This thesis is about density models of default times and applications to credit and counterparty risk. The rest part is a theoretical contribution to the study of projections on different filtrations of the Radon-Nikodym density of a measure change. The main result is a characterization of the measure changes preserving immersion in a density setup, obtained by application of our projection formulas. The second part is about an informational dynamization of the Gaussian copula model of portfolio credit risk, resulting in a density model of default times suitable to del with dynamic issues such as hedging of CDO through CDS or counterparty risk on credit derivatives. Here the main contributions are the introduction of the dynamic perspective, which allows one to give a theoretical justification to the Gaussian copula bump sensitivities used by practioners, and the application to CVA computations on CDS.

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The thesis examines the impacts of European integration on interest representation in an EU applicant country, Hungary. The study identifies and explores the mechanisms of Europeanisation and their effects on the organisation and functioning of interest groups and of interest representation structures. The study primarily uses the qualitative method. The empirical part consists of three detailed case studies, covering the pharmaceutical sector, the agricultural sector, and peak employers' associations. The research is largely based on primary data gained from interviews and documents. Each case study explores the inclusion of Hungarian interest groups in the European level of interest representation, their participation in EU-related policy-making, and the European policy impacts on group developments and interest representation structures. The theories of Europeanisation constitute the primary analytical framework for the study. In addition in an attempt of contextualisation, the theories of political and economic transition and consolidation are also examined. The empirical chapters indicate a variation in the forms and degree to which Europeanisation affected interest representation in Hungary. Sectoral, group and interest representation structure characteristics, and the nature of the EU level interest representation are examined as the variables responsible for the differences. The research findings point to the need to distinguish between formal and substantive Europeanisation. It is also argued that Europeanisation is closely intertwined with and embedded in the double process of political and economic transition and consolidation in the Central and Eastern European context

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NATO as an institution always kept the interest on many theorist and researchers. NATO enlargement as a process has become subject of analysis, especially after the Cold War. This is because, the existence of the NATO Alliance before this period was only seen as a creation balancing the Soviet Threat. With the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR, NATO transformed itself gradually. Since, the Soviet threat in not present any more, the researchers were and still are analyzing the NATO enlargement in terms what is the current threat that makes these countries willing to become part of NATO, and what is NATO interest in further enlarging. The concerns have been raised in some studies, but no one seems to have solved the puzzle. In this article I would make and analysis and try to explain this concerns. This would be done by analyzing and comparing the countries that had been admitted until know. Based on the indicators revealed by the analysis, alternative explanations based on the realism and neo- liberal institutionalism would be provided. I conclude that NATO is still a complex process that should be further analyzed in order the process to be clear. But as interesting points revealed in this study are that NATO enlargement is not based only on the criteria and requirements that the aspirant countries should fulfill. Aside form these requirements, the relations on the bilateral level, and the events and the relations on the international level seem to have a huge influence on the NATO enlargement.

To quantify sediment contributions due to urban channel enlargement, 50 study sites were selected on 1st- through 3rd-order streams, in watersheds with varying levels of urbanization, in two Physiographic Regions (Coastal Plain and Piedmont), and in the Coastal Zone Management Area of Virginia. At each site, riffle cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys were conducted to measure the channel morphology. Enlargement ratios for bankfull cross-sectional parameters were calculated to quantify channel change relative to stable streams (from regional curves). Relationships between dependent, channel characteristics and watershed-scale, independent variables were assessed. The main objectives were to: 1) test for differences in the morphological features between Coastal Plain and Piedmont streams; 2) develop relationships between watershed-level, urbanization characteristics and stream morphological features; and, 3) determine if relationships exist between watershed urbanization and channel enlargement ratios to estimate sediment loading from urban streams for use in statewide nonpoint source pollution assessment activities. It was determined that: 1) for a given watershed area, streams in the Piedmont tended to be larger than those in the Coastal Plain Region (for regional curve streams and for project streams); 2) among all project sites and sites in the Piedmont, watershed area was the best indicator of channel morphology, but among the Coastal Plain sites, the number of road crossings over streams was the best indicator of channel morphology; and, 3) few significant relationships between enlargement ratios and watershed urbanization variables existed; however, one commonality observed across all sites was an inverse relationship between watershed area and channel enlargement ratios. / Master of Science

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