Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are energetic events taking place at the Sun that can affect the space weather or the near-Earth environment by the release of vast quantities of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles. Solar active regions are the areas where most flares and CMEs originate. Studying the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs is helpful in understanding the possible cause and effect relationships between these events and features. Forecasting space weather in a timely manner is important for protecting technological systems and human life on earth and in space. The research presented in this thesis introduces novel, fully computerised, machine learning-based decision rules and models that can be used within a system design for automated space weather forecasting. The system design in this work consists of three stages: (1) designing computer tools to find the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs (2) applying machine learning algorithms to the associations' datasets and (3) studying the evolution patterns of sunspot groups using time-series methods. Machine learning algorithms are used to provide computerised learning rules and models that enable the system to provide automated prediction of CMEs, flares, and evolution patterns of sunspot groups. These numerical rules are extracted from the characteristics, associations, and time-series analysis of the available historical solar data. The training of machine learning algorithms is based on data sets created by investigating the associations among sunspots, filaments, flares, and CMEs. Evolution patterns of sunspot areas and McIntosh classifications are analysed using a statistical machine learning method, namely the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Fanerógamas marinhas (gramas marinhas) são plantas com flores adaptadas ao ambiente marinho costeiro da maioria dos continentes do mundo. As gramas marinhas formam extensos bancos e proveem valiosos recursos em águas costeiras rasas em todo o mundo, servindo de alimento e berçário para espécies importantes de pescados comerciais e recreacionais. Nesse estudo foi realizada uma revisão sobre o estado de conhecimento das fanerógamas marinhas no Brasil até o presente momento; avaliou-se a importância do monitoramento em longo prazo e a influência de fatores ambientais, como o número de manchas solares; pesquisou-se também a distribuição espacial da grama marinha, bem como a fauna e flora associada; e o crescimento de Halodule wrightii em duas condições ambientais extremas (exposta no ciclo de maré baixa e permanentemente submersa). A revisão bibliográfica sobre as gramas marinhas foi abrangente e verificou a existência de algumas lacunas no conhecimento. Através do monitoramento a longo prazo pôde ser observado que o número de manchas solares tem forte relação negativa sobre a altura do dossel das gramas marinhas de região entre marés. A variação de marés na região de mediolitoral está relacionada diretamente com a distribuição espacial de Halodule wrightii e, consequentemente na distribuição da fauna e flora associada. A diferença de crescimento nos eixos de Halodule wrightii em condições ambientais diferentes é compensada pelas variações nas características de distribuição da planta no ambiente, tais como a altura do dossel, a densidade e biomassa de eixos. O monitoramento a longo prazo pode permitir a tomada de ações que auxiliem no manejo e na recuperação desses importantes habitats costeiros. / Seagrass are flowering plants adapted to coastal marine environments of most continents of the world. Seagrasses form extensive meadows and provide valuable resources in shallow coastal waters worldwide, serving as food and nursery areas for important species of commercial and recreational fish. This study is: a review of the state of knowledge up to now of seagrass in Brazil; an assessment of the importance of long-term monitoring and the influence of long-term environmental factors, such as sunspot number; an analysis of the spacial distribution of seagrass and its associated flora and fauna; an investigation of the growth of Halodule wrightii in two spatially discrete extreme environmental conditions (exposed at low tide cycle and permanently submerged). The literature review on the seagrass was comprehensive and verified the existence of some gaps in knowledge. By monitoring over the long term it could be observed that the number of sunspots has a strong negative relationship with the canopy height of seagrass in the intertidal region. The variation of tides in the intertidal region is directly related to the spatial distribution of Halodule wrightii, and consequently the distribution of fauna and flora associated. Under different environmental conditions the variation in shoot growth of Halodule wrightii is compensated for by variations in the distribution of biomass in the plants, such as canopy height, density and biomass of shoots. The long-term monitoring may allow action to be the taken in order to assist in the management and recovery of these important coastal habitats.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Fanerógamas marinhas (gramas marinhas) são plantas com flores adaptadas ao ambiente marinho costeiro da maioria dos continentes do mundo. As gramas marinhas formam extensos bancos e proveem valiosos recursos em águas costeiras rasas em todo o mundo, servindo de alimento e berçário para espécies importantes de pescados comerciais e recreacionais. Nesse estudo foi realizada uma revisão sobre o estado de conhecimento das fanerógamas marinhas no Brasil até o presente momento; avaliou-se a importância do monitoramento em longo prazo e a influência de fatores ambientais, como o número de manchas solares; pesquisou-se também a distribuição espacial da grama marinha, bem como a fauna e flora associada; e o crescimento de Halodule wrightii em duas condições ambientais extremas (exposta no ciclo de maré baixa e permanentemente submersa). A revisão bibliográfica sobre as gramas marinhas foi abrangente e verificou a existência de algumas lacunas no conhecimento. Através do monitoramento a longo prazo pôde ser observado que o número de manchas solares tem forte relação negativa sobre a altura do dossel das gramas marinhas de região entre marés. A variação de marés na região de mediolitoral está relacionada diretamente com a distribuição espacial de Halodule wrightii e, consequentemente na distribuição da fauna e flora associada. A diferença de crescimento nos eixos de Halodule wrightii em condições ambientais diferentes é compensada pelas variações nas características de distribuição da planta no ambiente, tais como a altura do dossel, a densidade e biomassa de eixos. O monitoramento a longo prazo pode permitir a tomada de ações que auxiliem no manejo e na recuperação desses importantes habitats costeiros. / Seagrass are flowering plants adapted to coastal marine environments of most continents of the world. Seagrasses form extensive meadows and provide valuable resources in shallow coastal waters worldwide, serving as food and nursery areas for important species of commercial and recreational fish. This study is: a review of the state of knowledge up to now of seagrass in Brazil; an assessment of the importance of long-term monitoring and the influence of long-term environmental factors, such as sunspot number; an analysis of the spacial distribution of seagrass and its associated flora and fauna; an investigation of the growth of Halodule wrightii in two spatially discrete extreme environmental conditions (exposed at low tide cycle and permanently submerged). The literature review on the seagrass was comprehensive and verified the existence of some gaps in knowledge. By monitoring over the long term it could be observed that the number of sunspots has a strong negative relationship with the canopy height of seagrass in the intertidal region. The variation of tides in the intertidal region is directly related to the spatial distribution of Halodule wrightii, and consequently the distribution of fauna and flora associated. Under different environmental conditions the variation in shoot growth of Halodule wrightii is compensated for by variations in the distribution of biomass in the plants, such as canopy height, density and biomass of shoots. The long-term monitoring may allow action to be the taken in order to assist in the management and recovery of these important coastal habitats.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are energetic events taking place at the Sun that can affect the space weather or the near-Earth environment by the release of vast quantities of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles. Solar active regions are the areas where most flares and CMEs originate. Studying the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs is helpful in understanding the possible cause and effect relationships between these events and features. Forecasting space weather in a timely manner is important for protecting technological systems and human life on earth and in space. The research presented in this thesis introduces novel, fully computerised, machine learning-based decision rules and models that can be used within a system design for automated space weather forecasting. The system design in this work consists of three stages: (1) designing computer tools to find the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs (2) applying machine learning algorithms to the associations¿ datasets and (3) studying the evolution patterns of sunspot groups using time-series methods. Machine learning algorithms are used to provide computerised learning rules and models that enable the system to provide automated prediction of CMEs, flares, and evolution patterns of sunspot groups. These numerical rules are extracted from the characteristics, associations, and time-series analysis of the available historical solar data. The training of machine learning algorithms is based on data sets created by investigating the associations among sunspots, filaments, flares, and CMEs. Evolution patterns of sunspot areas and McIntosh classifications are analysed using a statistical machine learning method, namely the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).

Abstract The controversy about the monetary regime of the EC between the Britain and the other member countries made economists to study currency competition and currency substitution widely. This dissertation constructs a one-good, two-currency Brock model in discrete time. In the determinate model, we show the Gresham’s Law results as those in Weil’s. And we demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of a class of first-order Markov stationary sunspot equilibria. The existence of sunspot equilibria expresses another situation of currency competition that future situations may depend on the possibility of people’s expectations, not the growth rates of currencies and tries to provide another explain for the phenomena above.Britain and the other member countries made economists totudy currency competition and currency substitution widely .his dissertation constructs a one - good , two - currencyrock model in discrete time . In the determinate model , wehow the Gresham' s Law results as those in Weil's . And weemonstrate the existence and uniqueness of a class of firstorder Markov stationary sunpot equilibria . The existencef sunspot equilibria expresses another situation of currencyompetition that future situations may depend on the possibi-ity of people' s expectations , not the growth rates of cu -rencies and tries to provide another explain for the pheno -ena above .

The existence of sunspots or sunspot equilibria has been debated for several decades on its influence in the field of Economics. While models of sunspots or sunspot equilibria have fitted well for some subsets of empirical features, it comes at a cost of moving further away from economic believability and robustness. Studies on the theoretical plausibility of sunspot equilibria have been addressed extensively in several different economic models, but exist almost entirely within the framework of the homogeneous rational expectations equilibrium devised of representative agents. This framework shapes later arising learning approaches to sunspot equilibria. These models have proposed various ways of learning, but they deal mainly with the learning of representative agents. Models of adaptive learning with heterogeneous agents, however, enable us to explicitly tackle coordination issues, such as the coordination mechanism of expectations. This is certainly desirable since sunspots are often used as a coordination device of expectations. In this dissertation, we continue this line of research, investigating the plausibility of sunspot equilibria in stock markets within the framework of heterogeneous agents and the dynamic relationship between sunspot variables and stock returns. We adopt an Agent-based Computational Approach, now known as Agent-based Computational Economics or ACE, to study the plausibility of sunspot equilibria. More specifically, we deal with this issue in the context of an Agent-based Artificial Stock Market (AASM). We contemplate AASMs to be highly suitable to the issue we examine here. Currently, none of the theoretical, empirical, experimental, or simulation models of sunspot equilibria directly capture sunspots within a stock market composed of heterogeneous agents. We conducted three series of experiments to examine this issue. From the results of these three series of simulations, we observed that sunspot variables generally do not have influence on market dynamics. This indicates that sunspot variables remain largely exogenous to the system. Furthermore, we traced the evolution of agents' beliefs and examined their consistency with the observed aggregate market behavior. Additionally, this dissertation takes the advantage of and investigates the micro-macro relationship within the market. We argue that a full understanding of the dynamic linkage between sunspot variables and stock returns cannot be accomplished unless the feedback relationship between individual behaviors, at the micro view, and aggregate phenomena, at the macro view, is well understood / The existence of sunspots or sunspot equilibria has been debated for several decades on its influence in the field of Economics. While models of sunspots or sunspot equilibria have fitted well for some subsets of empirical features, it comes at a cost of moving further away from economic believability and robustness. Studies on the theoretical plausibility of sunspot equilibria have been addressed extensively in several different economic models, but exist almost entirely within the framework of the homogeneous rational expectations equilibrium devised of representative agents. This framework shapes later arising learning approaches to sunspot equilibria. These models have proposed various ways of learning, but they deal mainly with the learning of representative agents. Models of adaptive learning with heterogeneous agents, however, enable us to explicitly tackle coordination issues, such as the coordination mechanism of expectations. This is certainly desirable since sunspots are often used as a coordination device of expectations. In this dissertation, we continue this line of research, investigating the plausibility of sunspot equilibria in stock markets within the framework of heterogeneous agents and the dynamic relationship between sunspot variables and stock returns. We adopt an Agent-based Computational Approach, now known as Agent-based Computational Economics or ACE, to study the plausibility of sunspot equilibria. More specifically, we deal with this issue in the context of an Agent-based Artificial Stock Market (AASM). We contemplate AASMs to be highly suitable to the issue we examine here. Currently, none of the theoretical, empirical, experimental, or simulation models of sunspot equilibria directly capture sunspots within a stock market composed of heterogeneous agents. We conducted three series of experiments to examine this issue. From the results of these three series of simulations, we observed that sunspot variables generally do not have influence on market dynamics. This indicates that sunspot variables remain largely exogenous to the system. Furthermore, we traced the evolution of agents' beliefs and examined their consistency with the observed aggregate market behavior. Additionally, this dissertation takes the advantage of and investigates the micro-macro relationship within the market. We argue that a full understanding of the dynamic linkage between sunspot variables and stock returns cannot be accomplished unless the feedback relationship between individual behaviors, at the micro view, and aggregate phenomena, at the macro view, is well understood.

Étant de plus en plus isolés, les bâtiments très performants sont très sensibles aux apports solaires transmis par les vitrages ainsi qu'aux apports internes. Dans ce contexte, l'inertie thermique peut être utile en stockant l'énergie excédentaire et en réduisant les variations de température, améliorant ainsi le confort thermique.Évaluer la performance énergétique, environnementale et le confort thermique des bâtiments nécessite des outils de simulation thermique dynamique (STD) fiables. Historiquement, les modélisateurs ont essayé de trouver un compromis approprié entre précision et efficacité. Des hypothèses simplificatrices ont alors été intégrées dans les outils STD et ont un lien étroit avec l'inertie thermique. La validité de telles hypothèses, notamment la globalisation des échanges convectifs et radiatifs GLO intérieurs, ou la distribution forfaitaire des apports solaires transmis par les vitrages nécessitent particulièrement d'être remises en questions dans le contexte des bâtiments très isolés.Ainsi, un modèle découplant les échanges convectifs et radiatifs GLO ainsi qu'un modèle de suivi de la tache solaire (modèles détaillés) ont été implémentés dans une plateforme de simulation mettant en œuvre l'analyse modale et une discrétisation par volumes finis.Une première comparaison entre les modèles détaillés et simplifiés a été réalisée sur des cas d'études du "BESTEST", intégrant aussi des résultats d'outils STD de référence au niveau international (EnergyPlus, ESP-r, TRNSYS). Un travail similaire a été réalisé sur le cas d'une maison passive instrumentée (plateforme INCAS à Chambéry) en utilisant des techniques d'analyses d'incertitudes et de sensibilité.Les résultats montrent qu'une tendance à la baisse concernant les besoins de chauffage et de refroidissement existe en ce qui concerne les modèles détaillés considérés ici. D'autre part, il semble que ces modèles détaillés ne contribuent pas à diminuer significativement les écarts entre les simulations et les mesures. / Being highly insulated, low energy buildings are very sensitive to variable solar and internal gains. In this context, thermal mass is useful by storing surplus energy and reducing temperature variation, thus improving thermal comfort.Assessing energy, environmental and thermal comfort performances requires reliable building dynamic thermal simulation (DTS) tools. Historically, model developers have tried to find a fair-trade between accuracy and simulation efficiency within a fit-to-purpose philosophy. Simplifying assumptions have therefore been integrated into DTS tools and have a close relation with thermal mass. The validity of such assumptions, for instance constant interior convective and infrared radiative superficial exchange coefficients, or fixed distribution of solar gains transmitted through windows, particularly need to be reassessed in the case of high performance buildings.A first comparison between detailed and simplified models has been performed according to the "BESTEST", integrating also international DTS reference tools (EnergyPlus, ESP-r, TRNSYS). Similar work, but using uncertainty and sensivitivity methods has been carried out using experimental measurements on a passive building (INCAS platform in Chambéry). The results show a trend for the detailed models studied here to estimate lower heating and cooling loads. Furthermore, it seems that these detailed models don't contribute to reduce significantly discrepancies between simulations and measurements.

Cette thèse étudie les performances du marché du travail dans une économie susceptible de présenter plusieurs équilibres, et les implications d’une telle configuration pour la politique économique. Elle comporte quatre essais, traitant chacun d’un aspect spécifique de cette problématique. En premier lieu, l’analyse économétrique des séries temporelles de taux de chômage de quelques pays de l’OCDE, permettant notamment l’identification des changements de régimes et de leurs caractéristiques, apporte des évidences significatives à l’appui de l’hypothèse d’une multiplicité d’équilibres. En second lieu, on étudie les effets de l’introduction d’un salaire minimum obligatoire et d’une hausse de celui-ci dans un modèle statique de concurrence imparfaite avec négociations salariales au niveau de la firme, le facteur travail étant hétérogène. Si la hausse du salaire minimum est défavorable à l’emploi,l’introduction d’un salaire minimum en présence d’une multiplicité d’équilibres permet d’éliminer l’équilibre Pareto-inférieur. En troisième lieu, on étudie également les implications de l’existence d’équilibres multiples pour les politiques économiques, du fait de l’altération des propriétés dynamiques de l’économie, à travers l’analyse complète d’un modèle dynamique de concurrence imparfaite avec des négociations salariales individuelles et des frictions d’appariement sur le marché du travail. Enfin, on montre grâce à l’outil expérimental dans quelle mesure l’introduction d’une variable dite de tâche solaire, peut être source de défaut de coordination et d’inefficience dans une économie possédant deux équilibres Pareto-ordonnés. / This thesis analyzes the performances of labor market in an economy subject to multiple equilibria and the implications of such a configuration for economic policy. It contains four pieces of research, each dealing with a particular aspect of the general setting. First, the econometric analysis of the unemployment time series for several OECD countries,which allows the identification of regime switches and their characteristics, brings forth some significant evidence that the multiple equilibria framework is relevant. Second, the effect of the implementation and of the rise of the minimum wage are investigated through a static model, assuming imperfect competition, heterogeneous labor input and wage negotiations at the firm level. Though minimum wage hikes have an adverse effect on employment, the implementation of a binding minimum wage turns out to be an efficient tool for excluding the Pareto- inferior equilibrium. Third economic policy conditions are also affected because the existence of multiple equilibria alters the dynamic properties of the economy. This case has been investigated in the framework of a fully dynamic model assuming imperfect competition individual wage negotiations and matching frictions. Finally, a coordination game experiment confirms that the introduction of a sunspot can be a source of coordination failure and inefficiency in an economy with two Pareto-ranked equilibria.

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.