abstract: Due to large data resources generated by online educational applications, Educational Data Mining (EDM) has improved learning effects in different ways: Students Visualization, Recommendations for students, Students Modeling, Grouping Students, etc. A lot of programming assignments have the features like automating submissions, examining the test cases to verify the correctness, but limited studies compared different statistical techniques with latest frameworks, and interpreted models in a unified approach. In this thesis, several data mining algorithms have been applied to analyze students’ code assignment submission data from a real classroom study. The goal of this work is to explore and predict students’ performances. Multiple machine learning models and the model accuracy were evaluated based on the Shapley Additive Explanation. The Cross-Validation shows the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree has the best precision 85.93% with average 82.90%. Features like Component grade, Due Date, Submission Times have higher impact than others. Baseline model received lower precision due to lack of non-linear fitting. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Computer Science 2019

Este trabalho aborda o problema da estimação de profundidade a partir de imagens monoculares (SIDE), com foco em melhorar a qualidade das predições de redes neurais profundas. Em um cenário de aprendizado supervisionado, a qualidade das predições está intrinsecamente relacionada aos rótulos de treinamento, que orientam o processo de otimização. Para cenas internas, sensores de profundidade baseados em escaneamento por luz estruturada (Ex.: Kinect) são capazes de fornecer mapas de profundidade densos, embora de curto alcance. Enquanto que para cenas externas, consideram-se LiDARs como sensor de referência, que comparativamente fornece medições mais esparsas, especialmente em regiões mais distantes. Em vez de modificar a arquitetura de redes neurais para lidar com mapas de profundidade esparsa, este trabalho introduz um novo método de densificação para mapas de profundidade, usando o framework de Mapas de Hilbert. Um mapa de ocupação contínuo é produzido com base nos pontos 3D das varreduras do LiDAR, e a superfície reconstruída resultante é projetada em um mapa de profundidade 2D com resolução arbitrária. Experimentos conduzidos com diferentes subconjuntos do conjunto de dados do KITTI mostram uma melhora significativa produzida pela técnica proposta (esparso-para-contínuo), sem necessitar inserir informações extras durante a etapa de treinamento. / This work addresses the problem of single image depth estimation (SIDE), focusing on improving the quality of deep neural network predictions. In a supervised learning scenario, the quality of predictions is intrinsically related to the training labels, which guide the optimization process. For indoor scenes, structured-light-based depth sensors (e.g. Kinect) are able to provide dense, albeit short-range, depth maps. While for outdoor scenes, LiDARs are considered the standard sensor, which comparatively provide much sparser measurements, especially in areas further away. Rather than modifying the neural network architecture to deal with sparse depth maps, this work introduces a novel densification method for depth maps using the Hilbert Maps framework. A continuous occupancy map is produced based on 3D points from LiDAR scans, and the resulting reconstructed surface is projected into a 2D depth map with arbitrary resolution. Experiments conducted with various subsets of the KITTI dataset show a significant improvement produced by the proposed Sparse-to-Continuous technique, without the introduction of extra information into the training stage.

Expert labeling, tagging, and assessment are far more costly than the processes of collecting raw data. Generative modeling is a very powerful tool to tackle this real-world problem. It is shown here how these models can be used to allow for semi-supervised learning that performs very well in label-deficient conditions. The foundation for the work in this dissertation is built upon visualizing generative models' latent spaces to gain deeper understanding of data, analyze faults, and propose solutions. A number of novel ideas and approaches are presented to improve single-label classification. This dissertation's main focus is on extending semi-supervised Deep Generative Models for solving the multi-label problem by proposing unique mathematical and programming concepts and organization. In all naive mixtures, using multiple labels is detrimental and causes each label's predictions to be worse than models that utilize only a single label. Examining latent spaces reveals that in many cases, large regions in the models generate meaningless results. Enforcing a priori independence is essential, and only when applied can multi-label models outperform the best single-label models. Finally, a novel learning technique called open-book learning is described that is capable of surpassing the state-of-the-art classification performance of generative models for multi-labeled, semi-supervised data sets.

This study proposes a performance comparison between two Java applications with two different programming approaches, machine learning, and traditional programming. A case where both machine learning and traditional programming can be applied is a classification problem with numeric values. The data is heart disease dataset since heart disease is the leading cause of death in the USA. Performance analysis of both applications is carried to state the differences in four main points; the development time for each application, code complexity, and time complexity of the implemented algorithms, the classification accuracy results, and the resource consumption of each application. The machine learning Java application is built with the help of WEKA library and using its NaiveBayes class to build the model and evaluate its accuracy. While the traditional programming Java application is built with the help of a cardiologist as an expert in the field of the problem to identify the injury indications values. The findings of this study are that the traditional programming application scored better performance results in development time, code complexity, and resource consumption. It scored a classification accuracy of 80.2% while the Naive Bayes algorithms in the machine learning application scored an accuracy of 85.51% but on the expense of high resource consumption and execution time.

This thesis presents the case of dynamically and adaptively learning signatures for network intrusion detection using genetic based machine learning techniques. The two major criticisms of the signature based intrusion detection systems are their i) reliance on domain experts to handcraft intrusion signatures and ii) inability to detect previously unknown attacks or the attacks for which no signatures are available at the time. In this thesis, we present a biologically-inspired computational approach to address these two issues. This is done by adaptively learning maximally general rules, which are referred to as signatures, from network traffic through a supervised learning classifier system, UCS. The rules are learnt dynamically (i.e., using machine intelligence and without the requirement of a domain expert), and adaptively (i.e., as the data arrives without the need to relearn the complete model after presenting each data instance to the current model). Our approach is hybrid in that signatures for both intrusive and normal behaviours are learnt. The rule based profiling of normal behaviour allows for anomaly detection in that the events not matching any of the rules are considered potentially harmful and could be escalated for an action. We study the effect of key UCS parameters and operators on its performance and identify areas of improvement through this analysis. Several new heuristics are proposed that improve the effectiveness of UCS for the prediction of unseen and extremely rare intrusive activities. A signature extraction system is developed that adaptively retrieves signatures as they are discovered by UCS. The signature extraction algorithm is augmented by introducing novel subsumption operators that minimise overlap between signatures. Mechanisms are provided to adapt the main algorithm parameters to deal with online noisy and imbalanced class data. The performance of UCS, its variants and the signature extraction system is measured through standard evaluation metrics on a publicly available intrusion detection dataset provided during the 1999 KDD Cup intrusion detection competition. We show that the extended UCS significantly improves test accuracy and hit rate while significantly reducing the rate of false alarms and cost per example scores than the standard UCS. The results are competitive to the best systems participated in the competition in addition to our systems being online and incremental rule learners. The signature extraction system built on top of the extended UCS retrieves a magnitude smaller rule set than the base UCS learner without any significant performance loss. We extend the evaluation of our systems to real time network traffic which is captured from a university departmental server. A methodology is developed to build fully labelled intrusion detection dataset by mixing real background traffic with attacks simulated in a controlled environment. Tools are developed to pre-process the raw network data into feature vector format suitable for UCS and other related machine learning systems. We show the effectiveness of our feature set in detecting payload based attacks.

Activity recognition falls in general area of pattern recognition, but it resides mainly in temporal domain which leads to distinctive characteristics. We provide an extensive survey over existing tools including FSM, HMM, BNT, DBN, SCFG and Symbolic Network Approach (PNF-network). These tools are inefficient to meet many of the requirements of activity recognition, leading to this work to develop a new graphical model: Propagation Net (P-Net). Many activities can be represented by a partially ordered set of temporal intervals, each of which corresponds to a primitive motion. Each interval has both temporal and logical constraints that control the duration of the interval and its relationship with other intervals. P-Net takes advantage of such fundamental constraints that it provides an graphical conceptual model to describe the human knowledge and an efficient computational model to facilitate recognition and learning. P-Nets define an exponentially large joint distribution that standard bayesian inference cannot handle. We devise two approximation algorithms to interpret a multi-dimensional observation sequence of evidence as a multi-stream propagation process through P-Net. First, Local Maximal Search Algorithm (LMSA) is constructed with polynomial complexity; Second, we introduce a particle filter based framework, Discrete Condensation (D-Condensation) algorithm, which samples the discrete state space more efficiently then original Condensation. To construct a P-Net based system, we need two parts: P-Net and the corresponding detector set. Given topology information and detector library, P-Net parameters can be extracted easily from a relatively small number of positive examples. To avoid the tedious process of manually constructing the detector library, we introduce semi-supervised learning framework to build P-Net and the corresponding detectors together. Furthermore, we introduce the Contrast Boosting algorithm that forces the detectors to be as different as possible but not necessary to be non-overlapping. The classification and learning ability of P-Nets are verified on three data sets: 1)vision tracked indoor activity data set; 2)vision tracked glucose monitor calibration data set; 3)sensor data set on simple weight-lifting exercise. Comparison with standard SCFG and HMM prove a P-Net based system is easier to construct and has a superior ability to classify complex human activity and detect anomaly.

Since its discovery in 1995 resting state functional connectivity derived from functional MRI data has become a popular neuroimaging method for study psychiatric disorders. Current methods for analyzing resting state functional connectivity in disease involve thousands of univariate tests, and the specification of regions of interests to employ in the analysis. There are several drawbacks to these methods. First the mass univariate tests employed are insensitive to the information present in distributed networks of functional connectivity. Second, the null hypothesis testing employed to select functional connectivity dierences between groups does not evaluate the predictive power of identified functional connectivities. Third, the specification of regions of interests is confounded by experimentor bias in terms of which regions should be modeled and experimental error in terms of the size and location of these regions of interests. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the methods for functional connectivity analysis using multivariate predictive modeling, feature selection, and whole brain parcellation. A method of applying Support vector classification (SVC) to resting state functional connectivity data was developed in the context of a neuroimaging study of depression. The interpretability of the obtained classifier was optimized using feature selection techniques that incorporate reliability information. The problem of selecting regions of interests for whole brain functional connectivity analysis was addressed by clustering whole brain functional connectivity data to parcellate the brain into contiguous functionally homogenous regions. This newly developed famework was applied to derive a classifier capable of correctly seperating the functional connectivity patterns of patients with depression from those of healthy controls 90% of the time. The features most relevant to the obtain classifier match those previously identified in previous studies, but also include several regions not previously implicated in the functional networks underlying depression.

Speech communication encompasses diverse types of information, including phonetics, affective state, voice quality, and speaker identity. From a speech production standpoint, the acoustic speech signal can be mainly divided into glottal source and vocal tract components, which play distinct roles in rendering the various types of information it contains. Most deployed speech analysis systems, however, do not explicitly represent these two components as distinct entities, as their joint estimation from the acoustic speech signal becomes an ill-defined blind deconvolution problem. Nevertheless, because of the desire to understand glottal behavior and how it relates to perceived voice quality, there has been continued interest in explicitly estimating the glottal component of the speech signal. To this end, several inverse filtering (IF) algorithms have been proposed, but they are unreliable in practice because of the blind formulation of the separation problem. In an effort to develop a method that can bypass the challenging IF process, this thesis proposes a new glottal source information extraction method that relies on supervised machine learning to transform smoothed spectral representations of speech, which are already used in some of the most widely deployed and successful speech analysis applications, into a set of glottal source features. A transformation method based on Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) is presented and compared to current IF methods in terms of feature similarity, reliability, and speaker discrimination capability on a large speech corpus, and potential representations of the spectral envelope of speech are investigated for their ability represent glottal source variation in a predictable manner. The proposed system was found to produce glottal source features that reasonably matched their IF counterparts in many cases, while being less susceptible to spurious errors. The development of the proposed method entailed a study into the aspects of glottal source information that are already contained within the spectral features commonly used in speech analysis, yielding an objective assessment regarding the expected advantages of explicitly using glottal information extracted from the speech signal via currently available IF methods, versus the alternative of relying on the glottal source information that is implicitly contained in spectral envelope representations.

m-Estimation represents a broad class of estimators, including least-squares and maximum likelihood, and is a widely used tool for statistical inference. Its successful application however, often requires negotiating physical resources for desired levels of accuracy. These limiting factors, which we abstractly refer as costs, may be computational, such as time-limited cluster access for parameter learning, or they may be financial, such as purchasing human-labeled training data under a fixed budget. This thesis explores these accuracy- cost tradeoffs by proposing a family of estimators that maximizes a stochastic variation of the traditional m-estimator. Such "stochastic m-estimators" (SMEs) are constructed by stitching together different m-estimators, at random. Each such instantiation resolves the accuracy-cost tradeoff differently, and taken together they span a continuous spectrum of accuracy-cost tradeoff resolutions. We prove the consistency of the estimators and provide formulas for their asymptotic variance and statistical robustness. We also assess their cost for two concerns typical to machine learning: computational complexity and labeling expense. For the sake of concreteness, we discuss experimental results in the context of a variety of discriminative and generative Markov random fields, including Boltzmann machines, conditional random fields, model mixtures, etc. The theoretical and experimental studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the estimators when computational resources are insufficient or when obtaining additional labeled samples is necessary. We also demonstrate that in some cases the stochastic m-estimator is associated with robustness thereby increasing its statistical accuracy and representing a win-win.

A wide variety of text analysis applications are based on statistical machine learning techniques. The success of those applications is critically affected by how we represent a document. Learning an efficient document representation has two major challenges: sparsity and sequentiality. The sparsity often causes high estimation error, and text's sequential nature, interdependency between words, causes even more complication. This thesis presents novel document representations to overcome the two challenges. First, I employ label characteristics to estimate a compact document representation. Because label attributes implicitly describe the geometry of dense subspace that has substantial impact, I can effectively resolve the sparsity issue while only focusing the compact subspace. Second, while modeling a document as a joint or conditional distribution between words and their sequential information, I can efficiently reflect sequential nature of text in my document representations. Lastly, the thesis is concluded with a document representation that employs both labels and sequential information in a unified formulation. The following four criteria are utilized to evaluate the goodness of representations: how close a representation is to its original data, how strongly a representation can be distinguished from each other, how easy to interpret a representation by a human, and how much computational effort is needed for a representation. While pursuing those good representation criteria, I was able to obtain document representations that are closer to the original data, stronger in discrimination, and easier to be understood than traditional document representations. Efficient computation algorithms make the proposed approaches largely scalable. This thesis examines emotion prediction, temporal emotion analysis, modeling documents with edit histories, locally coherent topic modeling, and text categorization tasks for possible applications.