This dissertation proposes a suite of novel Bayesian semiparametric estimators for a proportional hazard function associated with the gaptimes, or inter-arrival times, of a counting process in survival analysis. The Cox model is applied and extended in order to identify the subsequent effect of an event on future events in a system with renewal. The estimators may also be applied, without changes, to model the effect of a point treatment on subsequent events, as well as the effect of an event on subsequent events in neighboring subjects. These Bayesian semiparametric estimators are used to analyze the survival and reliability of the New York City electric grid. In particular, the phenomenon of "infant mortality," whereby electrical supply units are prone to immediate recurrence of failure, is flexibly quantified as a period of increased risk. In this setting, the Cox model removes the significant confounding effect of seasonality. Without this correction, infant mortality would be misestimated due to the exogenously increased failure rate during summer months and times of high demand. The structural assumptions of the Bayesian estimators allow the use and interpretation of sparse event data without the rigid constraints of standard parametric models used in reliability studies.

In this dissertation we solve the nonidentifiability problem of Archimedean copula models based on dependent censored data (see [Wang, 2012]). We give a set of identifiability conditions for a special class of bivariate frailty models. Our simulation results show that our proposed model is identifiable under our proposed conditions. We use EM algorithm to estimate unknown parameters and the proposed estimation approach can be applied to fit dependent censored data when the dependence is of research interest. The marginal survival functions can be estimated using the copula-graphic estimator (see [Zheng and Klein, 1995] and [Rivest and Wells, 2001]) or the estimator proposed by [Wang, 2014]. We also propose two model selection procedures for Archimedean copula models, one for uncensored data and the other one for right censored bivariate data. Our simulation results are similar to that of [Wang and Wells, 2000] and suggest that both procedures work quite well. The idea of our proposed model selection procedure originates from the model selection procedure for Archimedean copula models proposed by [Wang and Wells, 2000] for right censored bivariate data using the L2 norm corresponding to the Kendall distribution function. A suitable bootstrap procedure is yet to be suggested for our method. We further propose a new parameter estimator and a simple goodness-of-fit test for Archimedean copula models when the bivariate data is under fixed left truncation. Our simulation results suggest that our procedure needs to be improved so that it can be more powerful, reliable and efficient. In our strategy, to obtain estimates for the unknown parameters, we heavily exploit the concept of truncated tau (a measure of association established by [Manatunga and Oakes, 1996] for left truncated data). The idea of our goodness of fit test originates from the goodness-of-fit test for Archimedean copula models proposed by [Wang, 2010] for right censored bivariate data.

This work develops a marginal screening test to detect the presence of significant predictors for a right-censored time-to-event outcome under a high-dimensional accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Establishing a rigorous screening test in this setting is challenging, not only because of the right censoring, but also due to the post-selection inference. The oracle property in such situations fails to ensure adequate control of the family-wise error rate, and this raises questions about the applicability of standard inferential methods. McKeague and Qian (2015) constructed an adaptive resampling test to circumvent this problem under ordinary linear regression. To accommodate right censoring, we develop a test statistic based on a maximally selected Koul--Susarla--Van Ryzin estimator from a marginal AFT model. A regularized bootstrap method is used to calibrate the test. Our test is more powerful and less conservative than the Bonferroni correction and other competing methods. This proposed method is evaluated in simulation studies and applied to two real data sets.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 1996. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 105-108). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 1996. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 105-108). Also available on the Internet.

Orientador: Sandra Aidar de Queiroz / Coorientador: Sabrina Luzia Caetano / Banca: Janaina Della Torre da Silva / Banca: Patricia Tholon / Banca: Danísio Prado Munari / Banca: Isabel Cristina Boreli / Resumo: O estudo dos comportamentos de imobilidade tônica (IT) e de reintegração social (CRS) pode revelar as interações homem-animal e animalanimal, refletindo no bem-estar dos animais no ambiente de cativeiro, acarretando, assim, em respostas positivas ou negativas para a produção e lucratividade do sistema de criação. Visando entender o nível de medo e a manifestação de sociabilidade em perdizes (Rhynchotus rufescens), a metodologia de análise de sobrevivência foi utilizada para estimar o tempo de permanência em IT e o tempo transcorrido para um animal se unir com seu conspecífico. Para isto, perdizes criadas no Setor de Animais Silvestres - FCAV - Unesp submetidas às avaliações de IT e de CRS, no período de 2006 a 2010, foram utilizadas. As observações de IT foram realizadas em 539 aves e os resultados revelaram que os efeitos de ano de nascimento, mês e peso corporal da ave na época da medida de IT foram importantes fontes de variação na duração do tempo em catatonia. Além disso, aves com maior peso corporal tenderam a permanecer maior tempo em IT. Observações de CRS realizados em 503 aves mostraram que as mais velhas levaram mais tempo para unir-se ao conspecífico. O efeito aleatório de pai foi significativo (p < 0,05) para IT e a herdabilidade estimada (h2) empregando-se o software Survival Kit foi igual a 0,37. A h2 para CRS foi 0,31, entretanto supõe-se alto erro-padrão associado a esta estimativa devido ao efeito aleatório de pai não ter sido significativo (p < 0,05). A correlação entre os valores genéticos de IT e de CRS foi 0,0598 (p = 0,1491), evidenciando a inexistência de genes de efeito aditivo comuns entre estes dois comportamentos na população analisada. É possível aplicar a seleção nas aves para diminuir o tempo de permanência em IT, sem alterar o nível de socialização / Abstract: The study of tonic immobility (TI) and social reinstatement behavior (SRB) can reveal interactions between man-animal and animal-animal. Those interactions reflect on the welfare of captive animals and may result in positively or negatively effects on the production and profitability of production system. Aiming at understanding the level of fear and the manifestation of sociability in red-winged tinamou (Rhynchotus rufescens), the survival analysis was applied to estimate the time in TI and also the time expent to an animal join with its conspecific. For this, redwinged tinamous reared in the Setor de Animais Silvestres - FCAV - Unesp hatched from 2006 to 2010 underwent TI and SRB evaluations. The observations of TI were performed in 539 birds and the results revealed that the effects of year of birth, month, and body weight of the bird at the time the measure of TI were important sources of variation for the time in catatonia; furthermore, birds with higher body weight tended to remain longer in TI. The SRB observations made in 503 birds showed that the older birds spent more time then the younger to join with their conspecific. The random effect of sire was significant (p < 0.05) for TI and the estimated heritability (h2) by Survival Kit software was equal to 0.37. The h2 for SRB was 0.31, however the estimate is supposed to have a high standard error associated with due to the random effect of sire being not significant. The correlation between the predicted breeding values of TI and SRB was 0.0598 (p = 0.1491), evidencing the non existence of common additive genes between these two traits in the studied population. Therefore, selection to decrease the time in TI could be applied on TI, without changing the level of socialization in this population / Doutor

Objective: This research explored how time-to-event dental articles were indexed and reported, and sought solutions to help improve the reporting and identification of these articles, so that they could be more easily found and used to inform practice and research. Methods: Articles reporting time-to-event dental outcomes in humans were identified from the 50 dental journals with the highest impact factor for 2008. These were handsearched, identifying 'case' articles (n=95), active controls (likely false positives, n=91), and passive controls (other true negatives, n=6796). The medical subject headings (MESH) that had been assigned to the articles in MEDLINE, and words used in titles and abstracts describing time-to-events were compared between the 'cases' and controls. Time-to-event words and figures within articles were also sought, and reporting quality was assessed. Search strategies to identify time-toevent articles were developed, using indexing terms and free-text words. An independent cohort of articles was used to validate the search strategies, consisting of 148 time-to-event articles handsearched from 6514 articles in the 50 dental journals with the highest impact factor for 2012. The findings of the research were used to draft guidance to improve reporting, which was circulated amongst 78 stakeholder experts for comment, and modified. Results: MeSH indexing of time-to-event analyses was inconsistent and inaccurate, author descriptions in abstracts and titles varied, and the quality of time-to-event reporting and graphics in the body of those articles was poor. The burden faced by someone wishing to find and use these articles was considered high. Sensitive, precise and optimized electronic search strategies were developed and validated with sensitivities up to 92% and precisions up to 93%. The draft guidance attracted comment from 46 experts across 15 countries, with approximately 90% of the 130 comments accepted into the revised version. The importance of good quality reporting was endorsed, and there was high interest in commending the guidance to authors, reviewers, and training dental specialists. Conclusions: This research programme explored how time-to-event dental articles were reported, and used those findings to suggest solutions that would help to improve the identification and use of these data, reducing research waste.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-17T19:34:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2014-11-19. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2015-06-18T12:46:56Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000831297.pdf: 830613 bytes, checksum: fa1703f2831e3d6345b6288ab0e519ff (MD5) / Na literatura é discutido o uso de planárias como bioindicadores de qualidade das águas, pois diferentes dos ensaios de toxicologia clássica, os animais conseguem captar efeitos de exposição a longo prazo. Atualmente, uma das técnicas de se verificar a qualidade das águas com o uso de planárias é realizando o teste cometa. Propomos uma forma alternativa para verificar a qualidade das águas utilizando planárias, a qual consiste em acompanhar o tempo de vida das mesmas inseridas em diferentes ambientes aquáticos. No estudo presente foram utilizados os dados obtidos por uma empresa que atua no ramo petroquímico e que utiliza as águas do rio Jaguari em seu processo de produção, nos quais foram aplicadas as técnicas estatísticas de análise de sobrevivência para comparar os níveis de poluentes tóxicos nos diferentes ambientes aquáticos. Também propomos um modelo de regressão para realizar inferências nos tempos de vida das planárias para os diferentes locais dos quais foram coletadas as amostras de água. O novo método proposto apresentou uma forma eficiente e de baixo custo no uso das planárias da espécie Dugesia Tigrina como bioindicadores de qualidade de águas. / In literature the use of planarians as bioindicators of water quality is discussed, because differently from classic toxicology tests, the animals are able to capture long term exposition effects. Currently, one of techniques to verify the water quality with the use of planarians is performing the comet assay. We propose a new alternative to verify the water quality by accompany lifetime planarians on different aquatic environments. In the present study we used data obtained from a petrochemical company that uses Jaguari river on its production process. Survival Analysis was used to compare the levels of toxic pollutants on different aquatic environments. We also propose a regression model to make inference in the lifetimes of planarians for the different locations from which water samples were collected. The new proposed method presented an efficient and low cost way to use planarians of Dugesia Tigrina specie as water quality bioindicators

Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-10T11:09:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2014-04-17Bitstream added on 2014-11-10T11:57:53Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000791484_20160101.pdf: 43333 bytes, checksum: 262a2698faeadb4cab4b7a3171811cc2 (MD5) Bitstreams deleted on 2016-01-04T10:26:17Z: 000791484_20160101.pdf,. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2016-01-04T10:28:12Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000791484.pdf: 1660378 bytes, checksum: 1b1612c5e778466cf417d45fd83990a4 (MD5) / O estudo dos comportamentos de imobilidade tônica (IT) e de reintegração social (CRS) pode revelar as interações homem-animal e animalanimal, refletindo no bem-estar dos animais no ambiente de cativeiro, acarretando, assim, em respostas positivas ou negativas para a produção e lucratividade do sistema de criação. Visando entender o nível de medo e a manifestação de sociabilidade em perdizes (Rhynchotus rufescens), a metodologia de análise de sobrevivência foi utilizada para estimar o tempo de permanência em IT e o tempo transcorrido para um animal se unir com seu conspecífico. Para isto, perdizes criadas no Setor de Animais Silvestres - FCAV - Unesp submetidas às avaliações de IT e de CRS, no período de 2006 a 2010, foram utilizadas. As observações de IT foram realizadas em 539 aves e os resultados revelaram que os efeitos de ano de nascimento, mês e peso corporal da ave na época da medida de IT foram importantes fontes de variação na duração do tempo em catatonia. Além disso, aves com maior peso corporal tenderam a permanecer maior tempo em IT. Observações de CRS realizados em 503 aves mostraram que as mais velhas levaram mais tempo para unir-se ao conspecífico. O efeito aleatório de pai foi significativo (p < 0,05) para IT e a herdabilidade estimada (h2) empregando-se o software Survival Kit foi igual a 0,37. A h2 para CRS foi 0,31, entretanto supõe-se alto erro-padrão associado a esta estimativa devido ao efeito aleatório de pai não ter sido significativo (p < 0,05). A correlação entre os valores genéticos de IT e de CRS foi 0,0598 (p = 0,1491), evidenciando a inexistência de genes de efeito aditivo comuns entre estes dois comportamentos na população analisada. É possível aplicar a seleção nas aves para diminuir o tempo de permanência em IT, sem alterar o nível de socialização / The study of tonic immobility (TI) and social reinstatement behavior (SRB) can reveal interactions between man-animal and animal-animal. Those interactions reflect on the welfare of captive animals and may result in positively or negatively effects on the production and profitability of production system. Aiming at understanding the level of fear and the manifestation of sociability in red-winged tinamou (Rhynchotus rufescens), the survival analysis was applied to estimate the time in TI and also the time expent to an animal join with its conspecific. For this, redwinged tinamous reared in the Setor de Animais Silvestres – FCAV – Unesp hatched from 2006 to 2010 underwent TI and SRB evaluations. The observations of TI were performed in 539 birds and the results revealed that the effects of year of birth, month, and body weight of the bird at the time the measure of TI were important sources of variation for the time in catatonia; furthermore, birds with higher body weight tended to remain longer in TI. The SRB observations made in 503 birds showed that the older birds spent more time then the younger to join with their conspecific. The random effect of sire was significant (p < 0.05) for TI and the estimated heritability (h2) by Survival Kit software was equal to 0.37. The h2 for SRB was 0.31, however the estimate is supposed to have a high standard error associated with due to the random effect of sire being not significant. The correlation between the predicted breeding values of TI and SRB was 0.0598 (p = 0.1491), evidencing the non existence of common additive genes between these two traits in the studied population. Therefore, selection to decrease the time in TI could be applied on TI, without changing the level of socialization in this population

Orientador: Miriam harumi Tsunemi / Banca: Luciana Vaz de Arruda Silveira / Banca: Diogo Francisco Rossoni / Resumo: Na literatura é discutido o uso de planárias como bioindicadores de qualidade das águas, pois diferentes dos ensaios de toxicologia clássica, os animais conseguem captar efeitos de exposição a longo prazo. Atualmente, uma das técnicas de se verificar a qualidade das águas com o uso de planárias é realizando o teste cometa. Propomos uma forma alternativa para verificar a qualidade das águas utilizando planárias, a qual consiste em acompanhar o tempo de vida das mesmas inseridas em diferentes ambientes aquáticos. No estudo presente foram utilizados os dados obtidos por uma empresa que atua no ramo petroquímico e que utiliza as águas do rio Jaguari em seu processo de produção, nos quais foram aplicadas as técnicas estatísticas de análise de sobrevivência para comparar os níveis de poluentes tóxicos nos diferentes ambientes aquáticos. Também propomos um modelo de regressão para realizar inferências nos tempos de vida das planárias para os diferentes locais dos quais foram coletadas as amostras de água. O novo método proposto apresentou uma forma eficiente e de baixo custo no uso das planárias da espécie Dugesia Tigrina como bioindicadores de qualidade de águas. / Abstract: In literature the use of planarians as bioindicators of water quality is discussed, because differently from classic toxicology tests, the animals are able to capture long term exposition effects. Currently, one of techniques to verify the water quality with the use of planarians is performing the comet assay. We propose a new alternative to verify the water quality by accompany lifetime planarians on different aquatic environments. In the present study we used data obtained from a petrochemical company that uses Jaguari river on its production process. Survival Analysis was used to compare the levels of toxic pollutants on different aquatic environments. We also propose a regression model to make inference in the lifetimes of planarians for the different locations from which water samples were collected. The new proposed method presented an efficient and low cost way to use planarians of Dugesia Tigrina specie as water quality bioindicators / Mestre