The Swedish housing market has been subject to extensive attention in the media recently, and the existence of a housing bubble has been questioned. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the Swedish housing market to investigate if there are reasons to believe that the market is overvalued. The current situation in the housing market will be compared to the United States market prior to the crash of 2007. The models that are used in the paper is the house price-to-income, price-to-rent and imputed rent-to-rent. Other fundamental factors such as rent control, household debt, interest rates, and other policies effecting the housing market will be discussed. The main findings indicate that the Swedish housing market in 2010 is overvalued, however one has to consider that there are limitations to these models such as the extra benefits of owning a house compared to renting.

The Swedish housing market has been subject to extensive attention in the media recently, and the existence of a housing bubble has been questioned. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the Swedish housing market to investigate if there are reasons to believe that the market is overvalued. The current situation in the housing market will be compared to the United States market prior to the crash of 2007. The models that are used in the paper is the house price-to-income, price-to-rent and imputed rent-to-rent. Other fundamental factors such as rent control, household debt, interest rates, and other policies effecting the housing market will be discussed. The main findings indicate that the Swedish housing market in 2010 is overvalued, however one has to consider that there are limitations to these models such as the extra benefits of owning a house compared to renting.

<p>This thesis presents a general description of approaches to energy efficient building development under Chinese contexts. The purpose of the work is to discuss how Chinese building development can be approved from an energy saving perspective.</p><p>Building development is a complicated process that relates to many stakeholders’ interests. The developed countries have studied in this field extensively for several decades. Generally, the approaches to energy saving can be set at three levels: administration, construction industry and architectural design. More new strict codes for energy efficient buildings are being issued for enforcement. At the same time, many research institutes have developed Building Environmental Assessment (BEA) methods, where energy efficiency is an important factor in the models. Various technical solutions for energy efficiency are developed as well.</p><p>The administrative approaches are not the main objective discussed in the thesis, though the importance of them is undeniable. BEA systems are not only assessment methods, but also market-based stimulating approaches for sustainability of construction market. Technical methods have been developed for a long period. Passive House and Low Exergy (LowEx) Systems are two representative examples in European countries.</p><p>All of these approaches are relatively unfamiliar to Chinese architects and developers, let alone their effect and applicability. The thesis tries to analyse this situation and their applicability within Chinese context.</p><p>In China to a certain project, the importance of technical issues is relatively recognized. However, a few successful individual cases in technique can not change the reality that most of new building development has failed in energy efficiency in China. This is a serious situation when China is in an enormous expansion phase in building new houses. The thesis tries to discuss the reasons for this phenomenon. One reason could be that the stakeholders in the developing process are not aware of the importance of collaboration which is the only method to get “Both Win” according to Game theory. The thesis discusses a paradigm to replace two traditional linear paradigms in building developing process. Architects should act as coordinators of different stakeholders rather than technical supporters.</p><p>The thesis tries to discuss the propositional route of developing energy efficient buildings. Technical approaches are basic research, which presents the concepts that have been proved realizable; BEA encourages developers to develop more energy efficient buildings for economic benefit, which will make good demonstrations for whole market; national laws and policies are final approaches, which ensure that every project will have good performance of energy efficiency. When the old standardization and legislation are finished, a new cycle will begin with more advanced techniques.</p><p>China government has started the progress to enhance energy efficiency. However, this process will be tough and slow. The thesis discusses Chinese special conditions and the problems that cry out for solution in the future.</p>

During the recent years, the Swedish housing market has developed into a topic of major interest, both domestically and internationally. The sky-rocketing prices, the uprising demand together with the housing shortage, and the market bubble ongoing debate, have resulted in the discussion of risk being more relevant than ever before. Literature is vast and knowledge is still gained, as recent research is seeking for answers about where the market is headed towards. This study intends to provide a new perspective regarding risk as a factor in the housing market. Based on the classical portfolio theory, an asset pricing approach in the Swedish housing market is presented. By applying modern quantitative methods, this thesis analyses the results of several models in the Swedish housing market and tries to establish a relationship between different market segments and the overall market. The goal is to determine: (1) the risk factor reflected by the market segments towards the overall market, (2) the evolution of the risk factor through time, (3) the way the market segments affect and cause each other, and finally (4) the response of the market segments against market shocks. The results provide a new insight on the risk factor and the mechanics defining the Swedish housing market. This could work as a useful tool in a new approach regarding the real estate market analysis, from a developer’s perspective. / Under de senaste åren har den svenska bostadsmarknaden utvecklats till ett ämne av stort intresse, både nationellt och internationellt. Skyhöga prisökningar, en ökande efterfrågan i relation till bostadsbrist, till den pågående debatten om marknadsbubblor har resulterat i diskussioner om att risken är högre än någonsin tidigare. Litteraturen är stor på området men mer kunskap inhämtas hela tiden eftersom aktuell forskning fortfarande söker svar på frågan om vart marknaden är på väg. Denna studie avser att ge ett nytt perspektiv av riskfaktorn på bostadsmarknaden. Baserat på den klassiska portföljteorin presenteras en prissättningsstrategi för den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Genom att tillämpa moderna kvantitativa metoder analyserar denna avhandling resultaten från flera modeller på den svenska bostadsmarknaden och försöker upprätta en relation mellan olika marknadssegment och den övergripande marknaden. Målet är att bestämma: (1) riskfaktorn reflekterad av marknadssegmenten gentemot den övergripande marknaden, (2) riskfaktorns utveckling över tid, (3) hur marknadssegmenten påverkar varandra och slutligen (4) marknadssegmentens reaktion mot marknadschocker. Resultaten ger en ny inblick i riskfaktorn och mekaniken som definierar den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Detta kan fungera som ett användbart verktyg i en ny metod för fastighetsmarknadsanalys från en fastighetsutvecklares perspektiv.

In the last few years, Sweden has felt rising energy prices leading to more harsh living for single houses. In the years 2021–2022, both Europe and Sweden witnessed record-high electricity prices and experts predicted an increase in the coming years. As a result of this, homeowners began to improve their energy efficiency in their homes. Therefore, this study will aim to answer the question “How does the final price of detached houses differentiate between Gothenburg and Luleå due to their energy efficiency?”. The hypothesis for the work is that a positive relationship between sales price and energy efficiency occurs. That Gothenburg will have a larger effect than Luleå. To answer the question a quantitative method is applied using the hedonic pricing model with two multiple regressions, one for each cross-section. The time series is from 2020–2023. The variables used are sale price as a dependent variable and a series of eight independent variables. The regression results show a positive relationship between energy efficiency measures and final price in both cross sections. Furthermore, the results are significant for Luleå and insignificant for Gothenburg. Regarding Luleå energy efficient ventilation and heating has a statistical significance on sale price. Meanwhile, house size and plots of land are significant for Gothenburg. These results are both in line with previous research but also contradict them. The thesis is unique because the analysis is made between two different energy pricing areas in Sweden. / Under de senaste åren har Sverige påverkats av stigande energipriser. Detta har resulterat i en mer pressad situation för småhusägare runt om i landet. Under åren 2021–2022 upplevde Sverige och Europa rekordhöga energipriser och experter förutspår en fortsatt ökning under de kommande åren. Med detta i åtanke har småhusägare börjat energieffektivisera sina hem. Således kommer denna uppsats besvara problemformuleringen “Hur skiljer sig slutpriset på småhus mellan Göteborg och Luleå av energieffektivisering?". Hypotesen för arbetet är att finna ett positivt samband mellan slutpris och energieffektivisering. Där till att inverkan i Göteborg är större än i Luleå. För att besvara frågeställningen appliceras en kvantitativ metod tillsammans med den hedoniska prismodellen. Modellen använder två multipla regressioner, en för vardera tvärsnitt. Tidsserien är mellan år 2020–2023. Den beroende variabeln är slutpris och förklaras med hjälp av åtta oberoende variabler. Regressionsresultaten visar ett positivt samband mellan energieffektiviserande åtgärder och slutpris i båda kommunerna. Dock är koefficienterna signifikanta i Luleå och icke signifikanta i Göteborg. För Luleå är energieffektiv ventilation och energieffektiva uppvärmningssystem statistiskt fastställda. Medan för Göteborg påvisar boarea och tomtstorlek signifikans. Resultaten ligger både i linje med tidigare forskning men motsäger även dem. Uppsatsen är unik då analysen genomförs mellan två olika energiområden i Sverige.

Abstract The topic of an overheated housing market, in Sweden, has been extensively discussed, not least by the media. This thesis will contribute to the debate by answering the question whether a potential price bubble exists in the Swedish housing market. Years between 1984 and 2004 are analysed using conventional metrics, which include house price-to- rent and income ratios respectively, changes in the dynamics of real house prices, as well as demographic variations. The analyse continues with the use of the imputed rent, also known as the yearly cost of ownership. Moreover the fundamental factors; interest rates, indebtedness and turnover of houses are discussed. It will be concluded that the conventional measures can be misleading. The imputed rent is a superior measure since it is the true cost of ownership and it accounts for changes in important determinants of house demand, mainly the interest rate. The answer to the title of this paper is; no, house prices (in 2004) in Sweden did not appear to be particularly overvalued, neither when compared to yearly rents in the tenancy market, disposable incomes, nor when low levels of interest rates are taken into account. However, this does not rule out that house prices cannot fall in the near future. / Sammanfattning Denna kandidatuppsats behandlar ämnet om en möjlig husprisbubbla i Sverige. Sedvanliga tekniker som används vid analysering av prisbubblor innefattar användandet av proportionen mellan huspriser och hyror samt disponibla inkomster. Även dynamiken i reella huspriser och demografiska förändringar utvärderas. I denna analys jämförs åren mellan 1984 och 2004 genom att använda “imputed rent”, vilken representerar den årliga kostnaden av ägande. Även fundamentala faktorer som räntan, skuldsättningen samt omsättningen av hus undersöks. Den slutsats som uppsatsen resulterar i understryker att de sedvanliga bruken kan vara vilseledande och att ”imputed rent” är en bättre teknik. Detta eftersom ”imputed rent” representerar den verkliga kostnaden av ägande samt inbegriper viktiga avgörande faktorer, som räntan. Därför är svaret på titeln; nej, huspriserna (år 2004) i Sverige förefaller sig inte vara särskilt övervärderade, när de jämförs med årliga hyror av likvärdiga hyresrättslägenheter och disponibla inkomster, samt när hänsyn tas till den låga räntan. Detta utesluter dock inte en framtida nedgång av huspriserna.

<p>Abstract</p><p>The topic of an overheated housing market, in Sweden, has been extensively discussed, not least by the media. This thesis will contribute to the debate by answering the question whether a potential price bubble exists in the Swedish housing market. Years between 1984 and 2004 are analysed using conventional metrics, which include house price-to- rent and income ratios respectively, changes in the dynamics of real house prices, as well as demographic variations. The analyse continues with the use of the imputed rent, also known as the yearly cost of ownership. Moreover the fundamental factors; interest rates, indebtedness and turnover of houses are discussed.</p><p>It will be concluded that the conventional measures can be misleading. The imputed rent is a superior measure since it is the true cost of ownership and it accounts for changes in important determinants of house demand, mainly the interest rate. The answer to the title of this paper is; no, house prices (in 2004) in Sweden did not appear to be particularly overvalued, neither when compared to yearly rents in the tenancy market, disposable incomes, nor when low levels of interest rates are taken into account. However, this does not rule out that house prices cannot fall in the near future.</p> / <p>Sammanfattning</p><p>Denna kandidatuppsats behandlar ämnet om en möjlig husprisbubbla i Sverige. Sedvanliga tekniker som används vid analysering av prisbubblor innefattar användandet av proportionen mellan huspriser och hyror samt disponibla inkomster. Även dynamiken i reella huspriser och demografiska förändringar utvärderas.</p><p>I denna analys jämförs åren mellan 1984 och 2004 genom att använda “imputed rent”, vilken representerar den årliga kostnaden av ägande. Även fundamentala faktorer som räntan, skuldsättningen samt omsättningen av hus undersöks. Den slutsats som uppsatsen resulterar i understryker att de sedvanliga bruken kan vara vilseledande och att ”imputed rent” är en bättre teknik. Detta eftersom ”imputed rent” representerar den verkliga kostnaden av ägande samt inbegriper viktiga avgörande faktorer, som räntan. Därför är svaret på titeln; nej, huspriserna (år 2004) i Sverige förefaller sig inte vara särskilt övervärderade, när de jämförs med årliga hyror av likvärdiga hyresrättslägenheter och disponibla inkomster, samt när hänsyn tas till den låga räntan. Detta utesluter dock inte en framtida nedgång av huspriserna.</p>

Problem statement: Accurate and reliable forecasts of trends in the housing market can be useful information for market participants as well as policy makers. This information may be useful to minimize risk related to market uncertainty. Since the burst of the housing bubble in the early 1990s the price level of single-family houses has risen sharply in Sweden. The Swedish housing market has experienced an unusually long period of high growth rates in transaction prices which has opened up for discussions about the risk of another housing bubble. Business and property cycles have shown to contain asymmetries, which linear models are unable to pick up and therefore inappropriate to analyze cycles. Approach: Therefore, this study uses non-linear models which are able to pick up the asymmetries. The estimated models are variations of the Markov-switching regression model, i.e. the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and the Markov-switching dynamic regression (MS-DR) model. Results: Our ndings show that the MS-AR(4) model allowing for varying variance across regimes estimated using the growth rate of FASTPI produce superior forecasts over other MSAR models as well as variations of the MS-DR model. The average expected duration to remain in a positive growth regime is between 6.3 and 7.3 years and the average expected duration to remain in a negative growth regime is between 1.2 to 2.5 years. Conclusion: The next regime shift in the Swedish housing market is projected to occur between 2018 and 2019, counting the contraction period in 2012 as the most recent negative regime. Our ndings support other studies ndings which indicate that the longer the market has remained in one state, the greater is the risk for a regime shift. / Problemformulering: Noggranna och tillforlitliga prognoser om utvecklingen pa bostadsmarknaden kan vara anvandbar information for marknadsaktorer samt beslutsfattare. Denna information kan vara anvandbar for att minimera risken relaterad till osakerheten pa marknaden. Sen bostadsbubblan sprack i borjan av 1990-talet har prisnivan for smahus okat kraftigt i Sverige. Den svenska bostadsmarknaden har upplevt en ovanligt lang period av hog tillvaxt i transaktionspriser som har oppnat upp for diskussioner om risken for en ny bostadsbubbla. Konjunkturoch fastighetscykler har visat sig innehalla asymmetrier som linjara modeller inte kan uppfanga och darfor visat sig vara olampliga for att analysera cykler. Tillvagagangssatt: Darfor anvander den har studien icke-linjara modeller som kan uppfanga dessa asymmetrier. De skattade modellerna ar variationer av Hamiltons Markov-switchingmodell, dvs. en autoregressiv Markov-switchingmodell (MS-AR) och en dynamisk Markov-switchingmodell (MS-DR). Resultat: Resultatet visar att MS-AR(4)-modellen som tar hansyn till varierande varians over regimerna estimerad med tillvaxten av FASTPI producerar overlagsna prognoser jamfort med andra MS-AR-modeller samt variationer av MS-DR-modellen. Den genomsnittliga forvantade varaktigheten att benna sig i en positiv regim ar mellan 6,3 och 7,3 ar och den  genomsnittliga forvantade varaktigheten att benna sig i en negativ regim ar mellan 1,2 till 2,5 ar. Slutsats: Nasta regimskifte pa den svenska bostadsmarknaden beraknas ske mellan 2018 och 2019, antaget att nedgangen under 2012 ar den senaste negativa regimen. Resultatet stodjer tidigare studier, som tyder pa att ju langre marknaden har varit i ett tillstand, desto storre ar risken for ett regimskifte.

This thesis presents a general description of approaches to energy efficient building development under Chinese contexts. The purpose of the work is to discuss how Chinese building development can be approved from an energy saving perspective. Building development is a complicated process that relates to many stakeholders’ interests. The developed countries have studied in this field extensively for several decades. Generally, the approaches to energy saving can be set at three levels: administration, construction industry and architectural design. More new strict codes for energy efficient buildings are being issued for enforcement. At the same time, many research institutes have developed Building Environmental Assessment (BEA) methods, where energy efficiency is an important factor in the models. Various technical solutions for energy efficiency are developed as well. The administrative approaches are not the main objective discussed in the thesis, though the importance of them is undeniable. BEA systems are not only assessment methods, but also market-based stimulating approaches for sustainability of construction market. Technical methods have been developed for a long period. Passive House and Low Exergy (LowEx) Systems are two representative examples in European countries. All of these approaches are relatively unfamiliar to Chinese architects and developers, let alone their effect and applicability. The thesis tries to analyse this situation and their applicability within Chinese context. In China to a certain project, the importance of technical issues is relatively recognized. However, a few successful individual cases in technique can not change the reality that most of new building development has failed in energy efficiency in China. This is a serious situation when China is in an enormous expansion phase in building new houses. The thesis tries to discuss the reasons for this phenomenon. One reason could be that the stakeholders in the developing process are not aware of the importance of collaboration which is the only method to get “Both Win” according to Game theory. The thesis discusses a paradigm to replace two traditional linear paradigms in building developing process. Architects should act as coordinators of different stakeholders rather than technical supporters. The thesis tries to discuss the propositional route of developing energy efficient buildings. Technical approaches are basic research, which presents the concepts that have been proved realizable; BEA encourages developers to develop more energy efficient buildings for economic benefit, which will make good demonstrations for whole market; national laws and policies are final approaches, which ensure that every project will have good performance of energy efficiency. When the old standardization and legislation are finished, a new cycle will begin with more advanced techniques. China government has started the progress to enhance energy efficiency. However, this process will be tough and slow. The thesis discusses Chinese special conditions and the problems that cry out for solution in the future. / QC 20101105