Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.

THE ABSTRACT In the new global economy majority of the developed countries use imposition of sanctions in the case of some offences. I have applied the synthetic control methods on this particular case of political pressure to quantify the real costs of anti-Russian sanctions to the economy. Based on the results of this study it was identified, that real GDP growth rate of Russia was continuously reducing by about -1,19% per quarter on average. Reaching the highest value of sanction's effect of -2,8% in real GDP growth rate at the end of 2015. It was also revealed that sanctions had positive effect on current account balance of Russia, that indicator was increasing during the whole studied after sanction's period by about 3,15% per quarter on average. This thesis is presented as a research of interconnection the imposition of 2014 sanctions against Russia and indicators of economic development (GDP, inflation) using synthetic control methods. It was revealed that former economic and social mechanisms aren't capable to provide further development of economy of Russia, its self-sufficiency and safety. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords sanctions, synthetic control method, Russia, GDP growth rate, current account balance Author's e-mail 51375259@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...

Cette thèse évalue l'impact économique des politiques de qualité liée à l'origine en mobilisant des méthodes d'évaluation que nous adaptons à la spécificité des démarches de certification, notamment à leur dimension spatiale. Dans un premier temps, nous analysons l'effet de l'adoption d’une Appellation d’Origine Protégée (AOP) sur le prix ainsi que sur les coûts de production des producteurs de lait AOP en Franche-Comté, en exploitant la discontinuité géographique à la frontière (Geographic Regression Discontinuity). Dans un second temps, nous utilisons les méthodes d'appariement statistique pour analyser les hétérogénéités régionales en termes de prix et de coûts de production entre les régions Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes et Franche-Comté avant de nous intéresser aux effets à une échelle nationale. Enfin, nous évaluons l'effet de l'adoption d'une Indication Géographique Protégée (IGP) sur les prix payés aux producteurs de Café de Colombie à l'aide des méthodes comparatives (synthetic control methods). En moyenne, les résultats montrent un effet positif de l'adoption de l'indication géographique sur la performance économique des exploitations. Cependant, cet effet est hétérogène entre les filières et les régions d'origine des produits. / This thesis evaluates the economic impact of quality-related-to-origin policies using evaluation methods adapted to the specificity of such certifications, in particular, the spatial dimension. First, we analyze the effect of a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) adoption on price and production costs of PDO milk producers in Franche-Comté using a Geographic Regression Discontinuity (GRD) design. Secondly, we use propensity matching methods to analyze regional heterogeneity in Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes, and Franche-Comté before focusing on the effect of the PDO adoption at a national level. Finally, we evaluate the effect of the adoption of a Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) on prices paid to Colombian coffee producers using synthetic control methods. Overall, we find that PDO and/or PGI adoption is associated with positive effects on farmers' economic performances. However, these effects are not homogeneously distributed.

The doctoral thesis consists of three essays that address the application of synthetic control method to various economic policy intervention. In the first essay I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank's commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I find that the commitment helped decrease unemployment substantially. The effect on overall output is also strongly positive, almost 2 percentage points for growth in 2015. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not statistically significant at standard levels. In the second essay I focus on the impact of joining the EU on the Czech agriculture. The results show that the Czech Republic would have had a higher food index if it had not entered the CAM and CAP. Moreover, I show that the CAP and CAM had different impacts on farms in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, which have the most comparable agriculture according to the results of the synthetic control method. In the final essay I estimate how the UK financial markets would have evolved if the Remain camp had won the referendum. The results suggest that there would not have been any significant change in the development of the FTSE 100 Index in the medium to long term if there had not been a referendum. On the other hand, I...

The objective of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the electronic records of sales (ERS) implemented on December 1, 2016, in the Czech Republic. The ERS orders given entrepreneurs to use special cash boxes and to send data about single sales to the Financial Authority immediately after each transaction. Experience shows that the ERS reduced tax evasion and the shadow economy. This thesis fills a gap in literature as no study has yet examined the impact of ERS on macroeconomic variables - gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment rate and harmonized consumer price index (HCPI). To analyze it, I apply SCM by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Abadie et al. (2010) and Abadie et al. (2015) that proposes the way how to evaluate the impact of political interventions using a quantitative approach. Using data from the Eurostat and OECD databases from Q1 2004-Q3 2019, the method allows me to construct a counterfactual outcome for GDP per capita, unemployment rate and HCPI in the absence of the implementation of the ERS. I also apply the extension of original SCM - generalize synthetic control method by Xu (2017) and augmented synthetic control method by Ben-Michael et al. (2018) as robustness checks. Moreover, the interference procedures include the modified confidence interval by Firpo and Possebom...

The world is experiencing a lasting shortage of organ donations – a problem more severe in some countries than others. Literature on the matter argues that an explanation for this is the various legal default consent systems, and the importance put on the opinions of the family members regarding the donation question in case of sudden death. This paper establishes the causal inference between cadaveric organ donation rates and the French amendment of the public health code, of 2017, which limited the authorization given to the family members - aiming to decrease family refusal rates and consequently increase cadaveric organ donation rates. By applying the synthetic control method, a synthetic counterfactual to France is constructed from a donor group, including comparable European countries. The counterfactual, Synthetic France, resembles what would have happened in France in the absence of the amendment. The results show that the legal amendment of article L1232-1 in the public health code (code de la santé publique) was likely the driving force behind the increased donation rate in the subsequent years. The main finding of this study is robust and statistically significant, providing confidence to the claim of causal inference.

Le secteur public joue un rôle important dans la société. Dans la plupart des pays en développement, les dépenses publiques constituent une partie importante du PIB et les entités du secteur public sont les principaux pourvoyeurs d’emploi et les principaux acteurs du marché des capitaux. Le secteur public détermine, généralement par le biais d'un processus politique, ses objectifs économiques et sociaux ainsi que les différents types d'intervention à mettre en place pour les atteindre. Comment le secteur public atteint ses objectifs constitue une question cruciale étant donné que sa taille et son importance économique en font un moteur principal de la croissance et du bien-être social. Ses performances sont jugées à travers la qualité et la nature de sa gestion des finances publiques, les infrastructures qu'il finance ainsi que la qualité de sa régulation des activités économiques. La manière dont les activités du secteur public délivrent les résultats attendus est ainsi une variable clé du développement; pourtant les études empiriques pour comprendre ce qui fonctionne dans le secteur public et pourquoi restent remarquablement limitées. Deux principales raisons expliquent cette situation: les performances dans ce secteur sont difficiles à analyser car les outputs des divers services qu’il fournit sont difficiles à mesurer et même à définir, et le manque de données quantitatives et qualitatives rend difficile une analyse économétrique rigoureuse.Dès lors, l’objectif de cette thèse est de documenter cette littérature et de proposer différentes méthodes empiriques pour évaluer les performances du secteur public dans les pays en développement. Notre analyse est organisée comme suit: la Première Partie - Chapitres 1 et 2 - présente deux essais sur l’évaluation des performances du secteur public “en amont” tandis que la Seconde Partie - Chapitres 3 et 4 - présente deux essais sur l’évaluation des performances du secteur public “en aval” Le Chapitre 1 fait usage de la technique de Blinder-Oaxaca pour examiner comment la qualité des institutions budgétaires affecte les performances budgétaires – déficit budgétaire et dette publique - en Afrique sub-Saharienne. Dans le Chapitre 2, nous utilisons une approche par le Synthetic Control pour étudier l'impact des Offices de Recettes sur la mobilisation des ressources publiques dans une vingtaine de pays en développement. Le Chapitre 3 présente un Benchmarking systématique des performances infrastructurelles de l'Afrique dans les secteurs de l'électricité, de l'eau et de l’assainissement, des technologies de l'information et de la communication, et des transports. Enfin nous évaluons, dans le Chapitre 4, les effets de la mise en place d'une Autorité Indépendante de Régulation sur les performances du secteur de l'électricité dans les pays en développement. / The public sector plays a major role in society. In most developing countries, public expenditure represents a significant part of gross domestic product (GDP) and public sector entities are substantial employers and major capital market participants. The public sector determines, usually through a political process, the outcomes it wants to achieve and the different types of intervention. How the public sector achieves results matters as its size and economic significance make it a major contributor to growth and social welfare. Its achievements emerge in the quality and nature of its financial management, the infrastructure it finances and the quality of its social and economic regulation. How well those public sector activities deliver their expected outcomes is a key development variable; yet explicit evidence base for understanding what works and why in the public sector remains strikingly limited compared with other policy areas. There are two main reasons for this situation: the performance in these areas is difficult to analyze because the outputs of many such services are hard to measure or even to define, and the lack of quantitative and qualitative longitudinal data precludes rigorous econometric analysis.Therefore the objective of this thesis is to document this literature and to propose different ways of measuring public sector performance in developing countries. The dissertation is divided into two Parts: the first Part – Chapters 1 and 2 – presents two essays on “upstream” public sector performance while the second Part – Chapters 3 and 4 – presents two essays on “downstream” public sector performance. The Chapter 1 makes use of the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition to examine how the quality of budget institutions affects fiscal performance – Primary Balance and Public Debt – in sub-Saharan Africa. In Chapter 2 we use a Synthetic Control Approach to investigate the impact of Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authorities (SARAs) on revenue mobilization in twenty developing countries. The chapter 3 provides a first systematic Benchmarking of Africa’s infrastructure performance on four major sectors: electricity, water and sanitation, information and communication technologies, and transportation. Finally we evaluate the effects of the establishment of an Independent Regulatory Authority (IRA) on electricity sector performance in developing countries in Chapter 4.