This thesis examines the feasibility of assimilating space borne remotely-sensed microwave data into WATClass using the ensemble Kalman filter. WATClass is a meso-scale gridded hydrological model used to track water and energy budgets of watersheds by way of real-time remotely sensed data. By incorporating remotely-sensed soil moisture estimates into the model, the model’s soil moisture estimates can be improved, thus increasing the accuracy of the entire model. Due to the differences in scale between the remotely sensed data and WATClass, and the need of ground calibration for accurate soil moisture estimation from current satellite-borne active microwave remote sensing platforms, the spatial variability of soil moisture must be determined in order to characterise the dependency between the remotely-sensed estimates and the model data and subsequently to assimilate the remotely-sensed data into the model. Two sets of data – 1996-1997 Grand River watershed data and 2002-2003 Roseau River watershed data – are used to determine the spatial variability. The results of this spatial analysis however are found to contain too much error due to the small sample size. It is therefore recommended that a larger set of data with more samples both spatially and temporally be taken. The proposed algorithm is tested with simulated data in a simulation of WATClass. Using nominal values for the estimated errors and other model parameters, the assimilation of remotely sensed data is found to reduce the absolute RMS error in soil moisture from 0.095 to approximately 0.071. The sensitivities of the improvement in soil moisture estimates by using the proposed algorithm to several different parameters are examined.

The miraculous birth of a new life starts by the formation of an embryo. The process by which an embryo is formed, embryogenesis, has been studied and shown to consist of three types of processes: mitosis, cell differentiation and morphogenetic movements. Scientists and medical doctors are still at a loss to explain the fundamental forces driving embryo development and the causes of birth defects remain largely unknown. Recent efforts by the Embryo Biomechanics Lab at the University of Waterloo have shown a relationship between morphogenetic movements that occur during embryo formation and the frequency and orientation of mitosis. To further study this relationship a means of automatically identifying the frequency and orientation of mitosis on time-lapse images of embryo epithelia is needed. Past efforts at identifying mitosis have been limited to the study of cell cultures and stained tissue segments. Two methods for identifying mitosis in contiguous sheets of cells are developed. The first method is based on local motion analysis and the second method is based on intensity analysis. These algorithms were tested on images of early and late stage embryos of the axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum), a type of amphibian. The performance of the algorithms were measured using the F-Measure. The F-Measure determines the performance of the algorithm as the true mitosis detection rate penalized by the false mitosis detection rate. The motion based algorithm had performance rates of 68.2% on an early stage image set and 66.7% on a late stage image set, whereas the intensity based algorithm had a performance rates of 73.9% on early stage image set and 90.0% on late stage image set. The mitosis orientation errors for the motion based algorithm were 27.3 degrees average error with a standard deviation (std.) of 19.8 degrees for early stage set and 34.8 degrees average error with a std. of 23.5 degrees for the late stage set. For the intensity based algorithm the orientation errors were 39.8 degrees average with std. of 28.9 degrees for the early stage image set and 15.7 degrees average with std. of 18.9 degrees for the late stage image set. The intensity based algorithm had the best performance of the two algorithms presented, and the intensity based algorithm performs best on high-magnification images. Its performance is limited by mitoses in adjacent cells and by the presence of natural cell pigment variations. The algorithms presented here offer a powerful new set of tools for evaluating the role of mitoses in embryo morphogenesis.

Reducing variation in key product features is a very important goal in process improvement. Finding and trying to control the cause(s) of variation is one way to reduce variability, but is not cost effective or even possible in some situations. In such cases, Robust Parameter Design (RPD) is an alternative. The goal in RPD is to reduce variation by reducing the sensitivity of the process to the sources of variation, rather than controlling these sources directly. That is, the goal is to find levels of the control inputs that minimize the output variation imposed on the process via the noise variables (causes). In the literature, a variety of experimental plans have been proposed for RPD, including Robustness, Desensitization and Taguchi’s method. In this thesis, the efficiency of the alternative plans is compared in the situation where the most important source of variation, called the “Dominant Cause”, is known. It is shown that desensitization is the most appropriate approach for applying the RPD method to an existing process.

Medication errors are one of the most common causes of patient injuries in healthcare systems. Poor labelling has been identified as a contributing factor of medication errors, particularly for those involving injectable drugs. Colour coding and colour differentiation are two major techniques being used on labels to aid drug identification. However, neither approach has been scientifically proven to minimize the occurrence of or harm from medication errors. This thesis investigates potential effects of different approaches for using colour on standardized labels on the task of identifying a specific drug from a storage area via a controlled experiment involving human users. Three different ways of using colour were compared: labels where only black, white and grey are used; labels where a unique colour scheme adopted from an existing manufacturer’s label is applied to each drug; colour coded labels based on the product’s strength level within the product line. The results show that people might be vulnerable to confusion from drugs that have look-alike labels and also have look-alike, sound-alike drug names. In particular, when each drug label had a fairly unique colour scheme, participants were more prone to misperceive the look-alike, sound-alike drug name as the correct drug name than when no colour was used or when colour was used on the labels with no apparent one-to-one association between the label colour and the drug identity. This result could suggest a perceptual bias to perceive stimuli as the expected stimuli especially when the task involved is familiar and the stimuli look similar to the expected stimuli. Moreover, the results suggest a potential problem that may arise from standardizing existing labels if careful consideration is not given to the effects of reduced visual variations among the labels of different products on how the colours of the labels are perceived and used for drug identification. The thesis concludes with recommendations for improving the existing standard for labelling of injectable drug containers and for avoiding medication errors due to labelling and packaging in general.

Conflict analysis tools are applied to brownfield negotiations in order to investigate the impacts of coalition formation and a decision maker’s (DM’s) attitudes upon the successful resolution of brownfield disputes. The concepts of attitudes within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is defined and subsequently are used, along with coalition analysis methods, to examine the redevelopment of the Kaufman Lofts property and the resolution of a post-development dispute involving Eaton’s Lofts, both located in downtown Kitchener, Ontario, Canada. Within the model of the Kaufman Lofts redevelopment, the project is broken down into three connected project conflicts: property acquisition, remediation selection and redevelopment; with the graph model applied to all three conflict nodes. The application of attitudes shows the impact of cooperation between local governments and private developers in the formation of a coalition that mutually benefits all parties. Coalition analysis, applied to the redevelopment selection conflict between Heritage Kitchener and the private developer in the Kaufman Lofts project, illustrates the importance of close collaboration between the local government and the developer. Systems methodologies implemented here for the examination of brownfield redevelopments are examined and contrasted with the economic and environmental tools commonly used in the redevelopment industry. Furthermore, coalition formation within GMCR is used to examine the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol, to demonstrate that formal conflict resolution methods can be utilized in other areas of environmental management.

This research is concerned with bioenergy systems planning and optimization modelling in the context of locating biomass power plants and allocating available biomass feedstock to the active plants. Bioenergy, a promising renewable energy resource, has potentially significant benefits to climate change, global warming, and alternative energy supplies. As modern bioenergy applications in power production have the ability to generate cleaner electricity and reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions compared with traditional fossil fuels, many researchers have proposed various approaches to obtain competitive power generation prices from biomass in different ways. However, the highly dispersed geographical distribution of biomass is a big challenge for regional bioenergy systems planning. This thesis introduces an integrated methodology combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and discrete location theories for biomass availability assessment, biomass power plant candidate selection, and location-allocation of power plants and biomass supplies. Firstly, a well known discrete location model – the p-Median Problem (PMP) model is employed to minimize the weighted transportation costs of delivering all collectable biomass to active power plants. Then, a p-Uncapacitated Facility Location Problem (p-UFLP) model for minimizing the Levelized Unit Costs of Energy (LUCE) is proposed and genetic algorithms (GAs) for solving these optimization problems are investigated. To find the most suitable sites for constructing biomass power plants, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and GIS based suitability analysis are employed subject to economical, societal, public health, and environmental constraints and factors. These methods and models are aimed at evaluating available biomass, optimally locating biomass power plants and distributing all agricultural biomass to the active power plants. The significance of this dissertation is that a fully comprehensive approach mixed with the applications of GIS, spatial analysis techniques, an AHP method and discrete location theories has been developed to address regional bioenergy systems planning, involving agricultural biomass potential estimation, power plants siting, and facility locations and supplies allocation scenarios. With the availability of the spatial and statistical data, these models are capable of evaluating and identifying electric power generation from renewable bioenergy on the regional scale optimally. It thus provides the essential information to decision makers in bioenergy planning and renewable bioenergy management. An application sited in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario Canada is presented to demonstrate the analysis and modelling process.

Abstract The modeling and analysis of multilateral negotiations are studied under the assumption that reaching an agreement is the main objective of the negotiators. A new methodology and associated definitions are proposed to predict the outcomes of such negotiations. The general objective of the new methodology is to study movements from one state to another in multilateral negotiations, to predict stable agreements, and to study their properties. The assumptions that the set of possible agreements is discrete and specified in advance make the negotiation problems considered here distinctive. Each decision maker has two concerns: first, achieving an alternative that is as preferable as possible; second, building support for this alternative among the other decision makers. In summary, this research consists of a systematic investigation of multilateral negotiations with the following general characteristics: • Decision makers in the negotiation seek a resolution that is not only feasible but also stable (enduring). Of course, each negotiator tries to attain the most preferable agreement for himself or herself. • If an agreement is reached, it must be an alternative from a pre-specified list, and all of the decision makers must accept the agreement. • Decision makers can possess different levels of power (or legitimacy) in support of an agreement, so the negotiation is not necessarily symmetric. Moreover, the analysis makes use of the decision makers’ preference orders over the proposed alternatives only, and does not require cardinal representations of their preferences. New concepts including State, Acceptability, Feasibility, Stability, and Fallback Distance are defined to pave the way for the proposed methodology. It is based on four types of movements, from unstable states toward stable ones, including preferential improvement, agglomeration, disloyalty move, and strategic disimprovement. Some criteria and algorithms are proposed to measure the likelihood of different moves and different outcomes. An important theorem shows that all four types of movement are mutually exclusive. The evolution of a negotiation from its status quo to the most likely outcomes is illustrated, using a tree. Several applications demonstrate that the proposed methodology can be applied to identify the most likely outcomes of a multilateral negotiation. Sensitivity analyses can be applied in several different ways to assess whether sudden or unforeseen changes in the model affect the conclusions. Several methods can be used from the literature for predicting the outcome of a negotiation. Social Choice Rules, Fallback Bargaining Procedures, and Bankruptcy Solutions are applied to the current negotiations over the legal status of the Caspian Sea to predict or recommend the most appropriate resolution among the proposed alternatives. In addition, the applicability of Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and its associated decision support system (DSS), GMCR II, are briefly discussed. Reasons why these methods are not appropriate when reaching an agreement is the main objective of decision makers (DMs) are then put forward. Based on the conceptual model for multilateral negotiations proposed in this thesis, a practical Negotiation Support System (NSS) is designed and implemented in Microsoft Access using Microsoft Visual Basic. This NSS increases the speed and accuracy of calculations. In the output of this NSS, all movements from initial states to subsequent states and their associated likelihoods are clearly illustrated, and all stable agreements are distinguished. Two real-world multilateral negotiations, over the legal status of the Caspian Sea and over the Epton site brownfield redevelopment project in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, are modeled and analyzed using the proposed methodology. To measure DMs’ weights quantitatively in the Caspian Sea negotiations, eleven criteria that can be considered to be important determinants of countries’ capabilities are discussed, evaluated, and integrated using a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis model. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method is employed to find the most favourable set of relative importance of different criteria for each country. Applying the proposed methodology indicates that unanimous agreements over the division of the Caspian Sea, either based on the International Law of the Seas or based on Soviet maps, are most likely as the enduring legal status of the Caspian Sea. The objective of applying the proposed methodology to actual negotiations over the redevelopment of a brownfield project is to ensure that the new methodology is flexible enough to model more real-world cases. Moreover, we wanted to test how well the actual outcomes of the real world negotiations match the most likely outcomes identified by the methodology. The results show that the decisions on the use of the Epton site followed the most likely path described and predicted by the model. This thesis is multidisciplinary in nature. It utilizes different branches of knowledge, including applied mathematics (game theory), computer science and programming, international relations, and environmental management. However, negotiation modeling and analysis in this thesis is developed from a systems engineering perspective.

This thesis presents a new approach to calibration of hydrologic models using distributed computing framework. Distributed hydrologic models are known to be very computationally intensive and difficult to calibrate. To cope with the high computational cost of the process a Surrogate Model Optimization (SMO) technique that is built for distributed computing facilities is proposed. The proposed method along with two analogous SMO methods are employed to calibrate WATCLASS hydrologic model. This model has been developed in University of Waterloo and is now a part of Environment Canada MESH (Environment Canada community environmental modeling system called Modèlisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) for Surface Hydrology (SH)) systems. SMO has the advantage of being less sensitive to "curse of dimensionality" and very efficient for large scale and computationally expensive models. In this technique, a mathematical model is constructed based on a small set of simulated data from the original expensive model. SMO technique follows an iterative strategy which in each iteration the surrogate model map the region of optimum more precisely. A new comprehensive method based on a smooth regression model is proposed for calibration of WATCLASS. This method has at least two advantages over the previously proposed methods: a)it does not require a large number of training data, b) it does not have many model parameters and therefore its construction and validation process is not demanding. To evaluate the performance of the proposed SMO method, it has been applied to five well-known test functions and the results are compared to two other analogous SMO methods. Since the performance of all SMOs are promising, two instances of WATCLASS modeling Smoky River watershed are calibrated using these three adopted SMOs and the resultant Nash-Sutcliffe numbers are reported.

This thesis acts as a first step in connecting the sub jective description of piano tone with quantitative measurements of changes in the vibrational and acoustical properties of a piano. Voicing techniques used by piano technicians are applied to a fully strung test piano and a series of tests are undertaken to measure the effect they have on piano tone. The addition of weights and riblets to a piano soundboard, two commonly practiced methods used to change the tone of a piano and even out the transition between the low tenor and high bass bridges, are examined in detail in this thesis. Modal analysis is the first test method applied and is used to determine the mode shapes and the modal properties of the test soundboard. The addition of small masses and riblets is shown to have the ability to change modal properties to varying degrees and connections are made between the output sound, attachment locations, modification locations, and mode shapes of the soundboard. A new technique, piano tone mapping, is introduced as a visualization method that displays the harmonic structure of the entire piano in one image. Using the technique creates a unique fingerprint of a piano that can be compared in various ways to other pianos. The piano tone maps reveal that initial magnitude and decay rate of the output sound are both decreased for notes with attachment points close to modification locations where weights and riblets are added. Impedance testing is also conducted for a number of different modifications. These tests reveal that riblets and weights each have their own frequency bands of influence, with the weights creating impedance changes primarily below 800 Hz and riblets creating impedance changes above 500 Hz, with a region of overlap between 500 Hz and 800 Hz. Tests also revealed that changes in impedance created by these voicing techniques were local in effect, with a region of influence less than 10 cm in radius extending from the location where the weight or riblet is attached.

An innovative negotiation framework for resolving complex construction conflicts and disputes has been developed in this research. The unique feature of the proposed negotiation framework is that it takes into account the attitudes of the decision makers, which is an important human factor in construction negotiation at both the strategic and tactical levels of decision making. At the strategic level, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) technique has been systematically employed as a method of determining the most beneficial strategic agreement that is possible, given the competing interests and attitudes of the decision makers. At the tactical level, a previously agreed-upon strategic decision has been analyzed in depth using utility functions in order to determine the trade-offs or concessions needed for the decision makers to reach a mutually acceptable resolution of the negotiation issues. A real-life case study of a brownfield construction negotiation has been used to illustrate how the proposed methodology can be applied and to demonstrate the importance and benefits of incorporating the attitudes of the decision makers into the negotiation process to better identify the most feasible resolutions. The proposed attitude-based negotiation framework constitutes a new systems engineering methodology that will assist managers in tackling real-world controversies, particularly in the construction industry. The negotiation framework has been implemented into a convenient negotiation decision support system that automates the proposed negotiation methodology. The research is expected to improve negotiation methodologies for construction disputes, thereby saving significant amounts of time and resources. The proposed methodology may also assist decision makers in overcoming the challenges of conventional negotiation processes because the incorporation of the attitudes of the decision makers results in a more accurate identification of tradeoffs, greater recognition of the level of satisfaction of the decision makers, and enhanced generation of optimum solutions.