Passive air samplers (PAS) using XAD-resin were deployed at a wide variety of sites around the world for four years to asses the spatial and temporal trends of legacy organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and current use pesticides (CUPs) in the global atmosphere. Legacy OCPs are prevalent in developing countries, whereas certain CUPs dominate in North America and Europe. OCP levels are declining world wide. Concentrations from the XAD-based PAS agreed with those from polyurethane foam (PUF) disk PAS within a factor of 4 for most sites. The comparison revealed that the sampling rate of the PUF-based PAS is more dependent on wind speed, whereas that of the XAD-PAS has a higher dependence on temperature. Analysis of PAS deployed across arid, subtropical Botswana showed that recent use has more impact on present day air concentrations than historical use. Year-long measurements by high volume air sampling in Botswana yielded higher HCB levels in winter, and higher endosulfan levels in summer. Those variations are neither related to temperature fluctuation nor seasonal hydrological events, and are therefore more likely caused by pesticide usage pattern. Very low levels of OCPs were found in the warm, dry, low organic matter soils of Botswana, including in soils from historical use areas. Such soils appear to have a low long-term storage capacity for pesticides allowing for rapid volatilization. They are thus not long-term sources of pesticides to the atmosphere. Endosulfan sulfate levels were observed to increase in tropical soils with increasing elevation. Water samples from high altitude cloud forests in Costa Rica contained very low concentrations of CUPs and it is unlikely that that those levels pose a threat to amphibians in cloud forests. Laboratory experiments and literature analysis showed that the inert gas stripping method for the determination of air-water partitioning equilibria is susceptible to surface sorption artifacts for chemicals with a interface-air partition coefficient log (KIA/m) > -3. Using larger bubbles reduces the surface-to-volume ratio and produces accurate air-water partition coefficients for chemicals with log (KIA/m) < -1.2.

Passive air samplers (PAS) using XAD-resin were deployed at a wide variety of sites around the world for four years to asses the spatial and temporal trends of legacy organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and current use pesticides (CUPs) in the global atmosphere. Legacy OCPs are prevalent in developing countries, whereas certain CUPs dominate in North America and Europe. OCP levels are declining world wide. Concentrations from the XAD-based PAS agreed with those from polyurethane foam (PUF) disk PAS within a factor of 4 for most sites. The comparison revealed that the sampling rate of the PUF-based PAS is more dependent on wind speed, whereas that of the XAD-PAS has a higher dependence on temperature. Analysis of PAS deployed across arid, subtropical Botswana showed that recent use has more impact on present day air concentrations than historical use. Year-long measurements by high volume air sampling in Botswana yielded higher HCB levels in winter, and higher endosulfan levels in summer. Those variations are neither related to temperature fluctuation nor seasonal hydrological events, and are therefore more likely caused by pesticide usage pattern. Very low levels of OCPs were found in the warm, dry, low organic matter soils of Botswana, including in soils from historical use areas. Such soils appear to have a low long-term storage capacity for pesticides allowing for rapid volatilization. They are thus not long-term sources of pesticides to the atmosphere. Endosulfan sulfate levels were observed to increase in tropical soils with increasing elevation. Water samples from high altitude cloud forests in Costa Rica contained very low concentrations of CUPs and it is unlikely that that those levels pose a threat to amphibians in cloud forests. Laboratory experiments and literature analysis showed that the inert gas stripping method for the determination of air-water partitioning equilibria is susceptible to surface sorption artifacts for chemicals with a interface-air partition coefficient log (KIA/m) > -3. Using larger bubbles reduces the surface-to-volume ratio and produces accurate air-water partition coefficients for chemicals with log (KIA/m) < -1.2.

At the beginning of the 21st century, primary liver cancer (PLC) remains the fifth most common malignancy in men worldwide, and the eighth in women. Central Africa and South East of Asia are high risk geographic areas for PLC, whereas developed countries appear to be generally low risk. Infections with hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) viruses are the main risk factors for PLC, accounting for well over 80% of PLC cases detected worldwide. The recently detected increase in both incidence and mortality by PLC in developed countries is strongly related to these viral infections. The evaluation of PLC time trends needs to take into consideration the geographic distribution and effect of these viruses. This thesis presents three studies which the aim to describe PLC incidence and mortality issues in different geographic areas, each addressing several epidemiological and methodological issues. For each study, different statistical methods on the basis of the Bayesian inference have been proposed, evaluated and discussed in order to cope with extra-Poisson variability. The first study, entitled "Meta-analysis of cohort studies of risk of liver cancer death among HBV carriers", evaluates the variability in PLC mortality reported in 11 cohort studies of male HBV carriers, taking into consideration the effects of geographic area and the choice of the general population versus a more comparable group such as HBV-negative workers or blood donors as the comparison group. The statistical methods of this study focuses on mixtures of Poisson distributions. The "stickbreaking" method has been used to estimate the number of components of the mixture of Poisson distributions, and, thus to obtain a pooled relative risk (RR) of death for PLC among male HBV carriers. The pooled RR of death by PLC related to HBV infection was 23.5 (95% Credibility Interval (CRI): 14.9 - 44.5). Studies carried out in high risk areas for PLC (China and Taiwan) showed RRs 2 to 5-fold higher than those of studies carried out in Europe, Japan and the U.S.. In low risk areas for PLC, studies which used workers or blood donors as comparison groups had RRs 1.9-fold higher (95% CRI: 1.2 - 3.1) than studies which used the general population. However, in high risk areas, the ratio of RRs was 5.3-fold (95% CRI: 3.4 - 7.9). This is the first time that a "healthy donor effect" has been quantified in longitudinal studies. The second study, entitled "Geographic distribution of primary liver cancer in Europe in 2002" evaluates the effect of HBV and HCV seroprevalence in 38 European countries on PLC incidence and mortality. Mixed Poisson models based on Bayesian inference have been used to smooth Standardized Incidence (SIR) and Mortality (SMR) ratios for PLC accounting for the effect of HBV and HCV prevalences. This approach enabled us to both examine the effect of different levels of HBV and HCV, and to identify remaining variability in PLC after accounting for infection rates. Bayesian inference allowed the determination of posterior probabilities for the somoothed SIRs and SMRs (hereafter RRs). The Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and the "effective number of parameters" (pD) have been used as tools for model choice. The highest mortality and incidence PLC RRs were found in Southern European countries (RR range 0.9-2.4), whereas Northern European countries showed the lowest RRs (RR range: 0.3-0.9). The effect of HBV infection was not found to be statistically significant in the model which accounted for both HBV and HCV prevalence. Countries with a prevalence of HCV higher than 2% (e.g.: Italy and Spain) had a higher risk of incidence and mortality (RR range: 1.28 - 1.78) than countries with HCV prevalence below 1%. Thus, the high risk of PLC detected in Southern Europe appears to be explained, in part, by HCV infection. The high HCV seroprevalence in this area could be associated with exposure 30-50 years ago. There may be an underestimation of PLC incidence and mortality rates in Eastern European countries given the low PLC RRs reported, despite high HBV and HCV seroprevalences observed. The implementation of population-based cancer registries in Eastern European countries is warranted, as well as HCV prevalence studies across Europe, to better determine the distribution of PLC in Europe and its relationship with that virus. The last study, entitled "Time trends in liver disease in Spain during the period 198397", describes incidence and mortality trends in hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma as well as mortality trends in liver cirrhosis in Spain. Autoregressive age-period-cohort (APC) models have been used to evaluate the time trends. We found that APC models performed well for those liver diseases with large number of cases, whereas the age-period models did for those liver diseases with low number of cases. We found an increase in incidence and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma in Spain (annual percent change (APCH) in men's incidence: 6.6%, 95% CRI: 5.8, 8.1: APCH in women's incidence: 4.5%, 95% CRI: 1.4%, 7.3%; APCH in men's mortality: 6.8%, 95% CRI: 5.8%, 8.1%; APCH in women's mortality: 5.1%, 95% CRI: 3.5%, 6.3%), that appear to be related to HCV exposure 30 years ago, as described in other studies of PLC. We also found an increasing trend in cholangiocarcinoma mortality (APCH in men: 17.1%, 95% CRI: 13.5%, 21.2%; APCH in women: 15.0%, 95% CRI: 11.5%, 19.5%) similar to that found in some developed countries, that could be attributed to improvement in diagnosis resulting from better imaging and diagnostic techniques. However, we did not detect a significant increasing trend in cholangiocarcinoma incidence, perhaps due to the low number of cases reported by the Spanish cancer registries. We have observed a decreasing trend in cirrhosis mortality in both sexes during the study period (APCH in men: -3.1%, 95% CRI: -5.1, -1.9%; APCH in women: -2.9%; 95% CRI: -6.2%, -1.3%), although younger cohorts did not show this pattern. This cohort effect suggests the possibility that younger cohorts could be exposed to some additional risk factors besides alcohol consumption. HIV and HCV or HBV co-infection and intravenous drug addiction could explain the increase in liver cirrhosis mortality among younger cohorts. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach allowed us to cope with extra-Poisson variability in three statistical analyses, applying different models, and addressing relevant methodological aspects specific to each problem. Challenging statistical issues in the framework of Bayesian applied modelling are: i) the selection of prior distributions for model parameters, which is related to convergence of the model; and ii) model selection procedures, and these remain important considerations for future research.

In the 1950s the otter started to decline in numbers and distribution in Sweden and other parts of Europe. In 1972 a game law came into force, listing otter as a species that if found dead should be reported and sent to the authorities. The numbers of dead otters reported from different areas indicate population status and distribution. Between 1970 and 2012, 832 otters were sent to the authorities, the majority (66%) during the last ten years. Most were killed in traffic accidents or drowned in fishing gear. However, the main cause of the decline is believed to be environmental contaminants. Experimental data show that a PCB residue level in muscle tissue of 12 mg/kg lw causes reproductive impairment in mink (Neovison vison), suggesting reproductive problems also in the highly PCB-exposed otters in Sweden. Since the bans of PCB and DDT in the mid-1970s, concentrations of these substances in otter and fish have decreased and the otter population is increasing. Few pathological changes in otters have been found that can be related to high contaminant concentrations. However, we found a correlation between elevated PCB concentrations and alterations in bone mineral density. No relationship was seen between DDE and bone parameters. The decline of the otter coincided with the decline of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and white-tailed sea eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla) in Sweden, all showing decreased reproductive outcome. Reproductive success started to increase for all of them around 1990 and during the same period concentrations of PCB and DDE have decreased in these species. The body condition among female otters has increased over the study period, indicating an improved health status. However, we found a high prevalence (71%) of cysts on the spermatic duct in otters collected between 1999 and 2012, possibly caused by endocrine disrupting chemicals. Although the organochlorine concentrations in otters have decreased, otters still face many problems. New threats to the otter population in Scandinavia are the perfluorinated chemicals, including PFOS and PFOA. Results in this thesis show an increasing trend for these compounds in otters up to 2011, including some extremely high concentrations of PFOS in otters from southern Sweden.

This paper investigates the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using panel data. Under PPP the real exchange rate is stationary around a constant mean. Recent panel data unit root tests are employed to test the PPP proposition where, under the conventional null hypothesis of a unit root, the real exchange rate is not stationary and PPP does not hold. In this case, as the time period t + n approaches infinity, its variance relative to period t will also approach infinity. The usual alternative in unit root tests is stationarity around a constant mean or a linear trend. The paper brings innovation into the PPP and panel unit root testing literature by allowing for possible nonlinear deterministic trends in the alternative hypothesis (as advanced by Cushman (2004)). If the null hypothesis is rejected in favour of the alternative of a non-linear trend, PPP still does not hold, but does at least revert back to a meaningful, stable long-run equilibrium. Given this non-linear trend, the variance of the real exchange rate as t + n approaches infinity, conditional on that trend, remains finite. Overall, evidence for stationarity in exchange rates is found in four out of six panels under consideration, including both support for stationary processes with no trend or a linear trend as well as for processes following a non-linear deterministic trend, in particular at time orders 5 and 6. The rejections are, in fact, most consistent at the nonlinear orders. Given nonlinear trends, PPP as usually defined does not hold, despite the rejection of unit roots. It is also found that stronger evidence for stable long-run equilibria in real exchange rates appears when the German Deutschmark is chosen as a base currency instead of the US Dollar. Finally, it appears that a very recent panel unit root test that takes account of cross-sectional dependencies delivers more consistent and sensible results.

As the conventional reservoirs decrease in discovering, producing and reserving, unconventional reservoirs are more remarkable in terms of discovering, development and having more reserve. More fields have been discovered where Barnett Shale and Bakken Shale are the most recently unconventional reservoir examples. Shale reservoirs are typically considered self-sourcing and have very low permeability ranging from 10-100 nanodarcies. Over the past few decades, numerous research projects and developments have been studied, but it seems there is still some contention and misunderstanding surrounding shale reservoirs. One of the largest shale in the United State is the Bakken Shale play. This study will describe the primary geologic characteristics, field development history, reservoir properties,and especially production trends, over the Bakken Shale play. Data are available for over hundred wells from different companies. Most production data come from the Production Data Application (HDPI) database and in the format of monthly production for oil, water and gas. Additional 95 well data including daily production rate, completion, Pressure Volume Temperature (PVT), pressure data are given from companies who sponsor for this research study. This study finds that there are three Types of well production trends in the Bakken formation. Each decline curve characteristic has an important meaning to the production trend of the Bakken Shale play. In the Type I production trend, the reservoir pressure drops below bubble point pressure and gas releasingout of the solution. With the Type II production trend, oil flows linearly from the matrix into the fracture system, either natural fracture or hydraulic fracture. Reservoir pressure is higher than the bubble point pressure during the producing time and oil flows as a single phase throughout the production period of the well. A Type III production trend typically has scattering production data from wells with a different Type of trend. It is difficult to study this Type of behavior because of scattering data, which leads to erroneous interpretation for the analysis. These production Types, especially Types I and II will give a new type curve matches for shale oil wells above or below the bubble point.

The most important aim of pre-positioning is to reduce the delivery lead time with eliminating the procurement stage by positioning items closer to the disaster area. The last 30 years&rsquo / data is used to designate the disaster trends / EM-DAT database is used to acquire the necessary data which includes the disaster locations, type of disasters and number of people affected. Also the most recent four years&rsquo / data is used for verification of the results. Locations of the optimal warehouses for pre-positioning are determined considering the generated emergency response scenarios. When we pursue this exploration, besides determining the optimal pre-positioning locations given by CARE International, we also determined where the natural disaster trend drifts towards.Therefore, this research tries to find an answer whether the disaster trends should be considered to determine the location of the pre-positioned items or not.

Genetic gain studies in the past have been used to evaluate the historical improvement of different traits and give insight into what magnitudes of gain might be possible in the future. Additionally, they have been carried out to defend the role of genetics during periods of stagnant or decreasing yield trends. This study was conducted over a 2-year period (2003 and 2004) and included nine current or obsolete cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivars grown in 5 plant densities designed to evaluate varying levels of interplant competition. Plant densities were single plant culture with plants spaced 3m x 3m, 2m x 2m, 1m x 1m, 1m x 0.3m, and two commercial populations with plants spaced 1m x 0.1m. Results were analyzed for each trait to determine whether genetic gains are interrelated with tolerance to interplant competition or strictly under genetic control. The rates of genetic gain for lint yield were highest in the 1m x 0.1m, 1m x 0.3m, and 1m x 1m treatment with slopes of 8.7, 8.2, and 7.1 kg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. The slopes were each significantly smaller in the 2m x 2m and 3m x 3m spaced populations with gains of 3.6 and 1.5 kg ha-1 yr-1 respectively, implying that for lint yield, genetic gains have been made for tolerance to interplant competition. Similarly, modern maize hybrids only out perform obsolete hybrids at higher plant densities. Genetic gain for lint yield, fiber length, fiber strength, and fiber micronaire made in the context of tolerance to interplant competition is due in large part to the excellent performance of Deltapine 491 (2002) at higher plant populations.

Thesis (M.S.N.)--Marshall University, 2003. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains iv, 56 p. Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-45).

Leadership development trends - isomorphism or innovation? This study examines leadership development within organizations, including strategies, objectives and processes that help to shape the organizations leadership development. The study is based on nine in-depth interviews with planners/decision-makers in eight different organizations. A part of the study consists of a web based survey completed by managers/leaders, were the gathered results assist in providing further insight on the topic being studied. The interaction between different players and stakeholders, significant social changes as well as major challenges in the continued leadership development process are highlighted and analysed. The study's most important conclusion is that successful and innovative leadership development is based on constant curiosity, business intelligence, understanding of the individual employee’s needs, as well as and business goals whilst achieving this by constant interaction throughout the organization. The overall trend is that leadership development is being increasingly adapted and renewed. Knowledge, understanding, relationships and values are strengthened and that coaching, personal development and a capability for renewal are provided.