Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / MBA Professional Report / The purpose of this MBA Project is to investigate and provide an analysis of the prominent factors that affecr the United States Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. This project was conducted with the sponsorship and assistance of the Naval Postgraduate School's Acquisition Research Institute, Financial Management and International programs. The overall goal of this project is three-fold: 1) to identify the purpose of the United States FMS program and its processes 2) to identify, define and evaluate historical economic, political, social and industrial changes and trends that affect FMS worldwide allocation and support and 3) to apply these findings to a specific country (Taiwan) to make a prediction of future participation and support. The role of arms sales in world politics has grown tremendously since the end of World War II and more specifically since the passage of new arms laws in 1979. The importance of FMS is increasingly evident in the foreign policies of both supplier and recipient nations, in international politics, competition and relations. Arms sales have become in recent years a crucial dimension of international affairs. This paper examines several trends in military equipment, services and training exchanges and investigates their potential impact on the future conflicts. The nature of FMS is complex. This research plans to identify and analyze trends relating to socio-political, economic, and industrial and technological changes associated with FMS spending. This discussion then applies these findings to Taiwan as a case study and expands on the customer's experience with FMS. The intent of this paper is to increase the reader's knowledge of FMS, pinpoint trends in the program and use FMS to Taiwan as a point of comparison to increase comprehension of this extremely complex and not well-understood program.

This dissertation shows that the generalizations that speakers project from the lexical exceptions of their language are biased to be natural and output-oriented, and it offers a model of the grammar that derives these biases by encoding lexical exceptions in terms of lexically-specific rankings of universal constraints in Optimality Theory (Prince & Smolensky 1993/2004). In this model, lexical trends, i.e. the trends created by the phonological patterning of lexical exceptions, are incorporated into a grammar that applies deterministically to known items, and the same grammar applies stochastically to novel items. The model is based on the Recursive Constraint Demotion algorithm (Tesar & Smolensky 1998, 2000; Tesar 1998; Prince 2002), augmented with a mechanism of constraint cloning (Pater 2006, 2008b). Chapter 2 presents a study of Turkish voicing alternations, showing that speakers replicate the effects that place of articulation and phonological size have on the distribution of voicing alternations in the lexicon, yet speakers ignore the effects of vowel height and backness. This behavior is tied to the absence of regular effects of vowel quality on obstruent voicing cross-linguistically, arguing for a model that derives regular phonology and irregular phonology from the same universal set of OT constraints. Chapter 3 presents a study of Hebrew allomorph selection, where there is a trend for preferring the plural suffix [-ot] with stems that have [o] in them, which is analyzed as a markedness pressure. The analysis of the trend in terms of markedness, i.e. constraints on output forms, predicts that speakers look to the plural stem vowel in their choice of the plural suffix, and ignore the singular stem. Since real Hebrew stems that have [o] in the plural also have [o] in the singular, Hebrew speakers were taught artificial languages that paired the suffix [-ot] with stems that have [o] only in the singular or only in the plural. As predicted, speakers preferred the pairing of [-ot] with stems that have [o] in the plural, i.e. speakers prefer the surface-based, output-oriented generalization. Chapter 4 develops the formal theory of cloning and its general application to lexical trends, and explores its fit with the typologically available data. One necessary aspect of the theory is the "inside out" analysis of paradigms (Hayes 1999), where the underlying representations of roots are always taken to be identical to their surface base form, and abstract underlying representations are limited to affixes. An algorithm for learning the proposed underlying representations is presented in a general form and is applied to a range of test cases.

The following hypothesis is tested by the research: A single crash test contains information that can be used to predict vehicle response accounting for different crash conditions such as vehicle mass and initial velocity and thus can be used to predict the effect on occupant injury risk for varying occupant positions within a vehicle It is established that the response of the crumple zone is influential in the level of injury risk. The metric for such response in common use is the NHTSA linear stiffness parameter. This parameter is used to show that stiffness increases with vehicle mass in a demographic setting. However, by comparing vehicle mass trends over 28 years of crash testing with similar trends in stiffness, a mass influence in the stiffness increase is implicated. This influence is supported by the introduction of a mass-independent stiffness metric, called reluctance, which shows a lesser increase in mass-independent stiffness over the 28 years. The idea that stiffness should increase with vehicle mass runs counter to intuition and is tested by comparing two identical vehicles in crash tests where one of the vehicles carries an extra 555kg. The idea is further tested by simulation using a multiple mass-spring model on vehicles, varying mass and impact velocity. Using the reluctance stiffness metric it was concluded that increased vehicle mass decreases stiffness, confirming intuition. Using the injury risk metric of contact velocity differential between occupant and interior of the vehicle it is shown that increased vehicle mass reduces injury. This has important implications for the industry where a marginal performer in a compliance crash test needs only to increase production vehicle mass to reduce injury levels to the statutory injury reference values. A fleet study presents evidence of increasing average vehicle mass. The study observes that blunt injury generally commences prior to vehicle rebound and continues well into rebound. Recognizing vehicle rebound to be influential in almost all blunt injury led to analysis of the fleet for improvement to this injury parameter. Using specific energy absorption as criterion, 18 modern cars were compared with 19 cars 15-17 years older at compliance test velocities. No improvement was discerned. Similarly, two baskets of cars (n=41 modern & n=32 older) tested at NCAP speeds separated by nominally 20 years failed to show improvement in rebound velocity. The implications for this study of the rebound findings was to ensure that the model presented was capable of representing injury into the rebound phase of the crash. To assist in this, a rebound formulation to reflect varying initial velocity was determined to be a linear function, studying 7 models of vehicles involved in 20 crashes at nominally 40, 48 & 56 km/h crash speeds. Occupant position within a vehicle is identified as an important variable in injury determination. Vehicle crash tests require seating positions to be set to mid-track adjustment. This discriminates against vehicles having more "legroom" while appearing to be fair, using seating adjustment as the determinant. An empirical mathematical model is proposed permitting crash test results to be extended to investigate the effects of varying occupant positions thus eliminating the legroom anomaly. In addition to the varying occupant position facility, the mathematical model can easily accommodate changes in vehicle mass and varying impact velocity showing fidelity with test data. The model is used to show that injury risk in the National Fleet has not improved over an 18-year period of crash testing.

Importance: Infectious diseases present an ever-changing threat to public health. Analysis of pathogen-linked mortality trends is elucidatory to infectious disease burden. Objective: To describe major shifts in United States infectious disease mortality trends from 1900-2013 with emphasis on recent changes for1980-2013. Design: Ecological study of infectious disease mortality in the United States. Setting: Infectious disease deaths were summed from Vital Statistic Reports from 1900-1967. Infectious disease deaths from 1968-2013 were extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder database and tallied. Participants: Deaths among United States residents from 1900-2013. Main Outcome Measures: Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates for key infectious diseases including emerging infections, specifically human immunodeficiency virus and certain vector-borne diseases, re-emerging diseases, specifically, vaccine-preventable diseases and pathogens with drug-resistant strains, and newly defined infectious diseases such as cervical cancer due to human papilloma virus. Results: While human immunodeficiency virus mortality has been declining since 1995 (average annual percent change = 10.6%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [-13.1, -7.9]), recent years have seen an increase in infectious disease mortality related to vector-borne diseases. Specifically, with the emergence of West Nile virus in the United States, vector-borne disease mortality increased from 34.5 deaths per year (1980-2001) to 141.7 deaths per year (2002-2013). Vaccine preventable disease mortality continues to decrease with an average annual percent change of 2.4%, 95% CI [-2.8, -2.0] from 1980-2013. Mortality due to drug-resistant strains of infectious diseases is increasing at an average annual percent change of 0.8%, 95% CI [0.1, 1.6] from 1980-2013. Finally, mortality due to a disease previously not classified as infectious, cervical cancer, has been decreasing at an average annual percent change of 1.4%, 95% CI [-1.7, -1.1] since 1980. Conclusions: Despite the overall downward trends in infectious disease mortality, they still account for 43 per 100,000 deaths annually in the United States. Specific diseases and disease groups evaluated in this study show inconsistent, but concerning, trends across emerging, re-emerging, and newly defined infectious diseases, indicating that infectious diseases remain a public health concern.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi descrever a prevalência de diferentes estados nutricionais de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros, identificando a tendência do comportamento do baixo peso, do sobrepeso e da obesidade ao longo de um período de seis anos. Este estudo de tendência foi realizado com uma amostra voluntária de 37.801 escolares, provenientes do banco de dados do Projeto Esporte Brasil (PROESPBr). A amostra foi agrupada em três períodos de tempo (I= 2005-2006; II= 2007-2008; e, III= 2009 a 2011) e por idades (crianças: 7 a 10 anos, e adolescentes: 11 a 14 anos), além de, estratificada por sexo. A massa corporal e a estatura foram avaliadas pelos professores nas escolas, e o índice de massa corporal (IMC) foi calculado posteriormente. O IMC foi classificado em baixo peso, eutrófico, sobrepeso e obesidade, conforme os critérios propostos por Conde e Monteiro (2006). Para verificação da associação entre os períodos de tempo e as categorias do perfil nutricional foi utilizado o teste do qui-quadrado de Pearson e na identificação da tendência da prevalência do baixo peso, do sobrepeso e da obesidade, ao longo dos últimos seis anos, recorreu-se ao teste de Regressão Logística Multinomial (em ambos procedimentos o nível de significância foi de 5%). Os resultados apontaram, no baixo peso, uma probabilidade da ocorrência diminuir significativamente nos adolescentes do sexo masculino do ano de 2005-06 para 2007-08, e uma probabilidade da prevalência aumentar significativamente nas crianças do sexo feminino entre o ano de 2007-08 para 2009-11, embora em todas as categorias de idade e sexo, as ocorrências tenham sido menores que 5%. Observamos no sobrepeso, uma probabilidade da ocorrência aumentar do período I para o II (2005-2006 para 2007-2008), nas crianças do sexo masculino, e prevalências sempre próximas a 20% nas demais categorias de idade e sexo. Encontramos, além disso na obesidade, uma probabilidade da prevalência aumentar significativamente do período I para o II em todas as categorias de idade e nos dois sexos, sendo que não foi observado uma permanência do aumento. Entretanto as ocorrências, tanto no sobrepeso como na obesidade, permaneceram elevadas no último período avaliado (2009 a 2011), indicando possivelmente um platô das prevalências. No entanto, a população de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros é composta por aproximadamente 30% de casos com sobrepeso e obesidade. Esses resultados apontam a importância da continuidade de investigações sobre o perfil nutricional de crianças e adolescentes e demonstram a necessidade de um planejamento de ações que proporcionem uma reversão desses achados. / The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of different nutritional status among Brazilian children and adolescents (male and female), from the identification of underweight, overweight and obesity behavior trends in a period of six years. This trend study was performed with a voluntary sample of 37.801. Data was obtained from the PROESP-Br (Brazil Sport Project) database. Sample was clustered in three periods of time (I=2005-2006; II= 2007-2008; and III=2009 to 2011), in two age groups (children: 7 for 10 years old and adolescents: 11 to 14 years old), and stratified for sex. The weight and height was measured for teachers at school during physical education class and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. BMI was stratified in underweight, eutrophic, overweight and obesity, according with Conde and Monteiro (2006) criteria. To assess the association between time periods and nutritional profile categories, we used the Pearson chi-square test and to identify of trends in underweight, overweight and obesity prevalence were conducted using multiple logistic regression (overall α level of 5%).. Results showed, of underweight, a significant prevalence decrease probability in male adolescents in 2005-06 to 2007-08 and increase in female children in 2007-08 to 2009- 11, although in all categories of age and sex, the occurrences have been less than 5%. We observed in the overweight, an occurrence increase probability in period I to II (2005-2006 to 2007-2008) in male children, and prevalence close to 20% in the others age and gender categories. Also, we found an occurrence increase probability in obesity in the period I to II in all age categories and both sexes, but remained stable until the last period study (2009 -2011). This possibly indicates a plateau in prevalence. However, the population of Brazilian children and adolescents is composed of approximately 30% of cases of overweight and obesity. The results show the importance of continuing investigations about nutritional status of children and adolescents and demonstrate the need for action planning to provide a reversal of these findings.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi descrever a prevalência de diferentes estados nutricionais de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros, identificando a tendência do comportamento do baixo peso, do sobrepeso e da obesidade ao longo de um período de seis anos. Este estudo de tendência foi realizado com uma amostra voluntária de 37.801 escolares, provenientes do banco de dados do Projeto Esporte Brasil (PROESPBr). A amostra foi agrupada em três períodos de tempo (I= 2005-2006; II= 2007-2008; e, III= 2009 a 2011) e por idades (crianças: 7 a 10 anos, e adolescentes: 11 a 14 anos), além de, estratificada por sexo. A massa corporal e a estatura foram avaliadas pelos professores nas escolas, e o índice de massa corporal (IMC) foi calculado posteriormente. O IMC foi classificado em baixo peso, eutrófico, sobrepeso e obesidade, conforme os critérios propostos por Conde e Monteiro (2006). Para verificação da associação entre os períodos de tempo e as categorias do perfil nutricional foi utilizado o teste do qui-quadrado de Pearson e na identificação da tendência da prevalência do baixo peso, do sobrepeso e da obesidade, ao longo dos últimos seis anos, recorreu-se ao teste de Regressão Logística Multinomial (em ambos procedimentos o nível de significância foi de 5%). Os resultados apontaram, no baixo peso, uma probabilidade da ocorrência diminuir significativamente nos adolescentes do sexo masculino do ano de 2005-06 para 2007-08, e uma probabilidade da prevalência aumentar significativamente nas crianças do sexo feminino entre o ano de 2007-08 para 2009-11, embora em todas as categorias de idade e sexo, as ocorrências tenham sido menores que 5%. Observamos no sobrepeso, uma probabilidade da ocorrência aumentar do período I para o II (2005-2006 para 2007-2008), nas crianças do sexo masculino, e prevalências sempre próximas a 20% nas demais categorias de idade e sexo. Encontramos, além disso na obesidade, uma probabilidade da prevalência aumentar significativamente do período I para o II em todas as categorias de idade e nos dois sexos, sendo que não foi observado uma permanência do aumento. Entretanto as ocorrências, tanto no sobrepeso como na obesidade, permaneceram elevadas no último período avaliado (2009 a 2011), indicando possivelmente um platô das prevalências. No entanto, a população de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros é composta por aproximadamente 30% de casos com sobrepeso e obesidade. Esses resultados apontam a importância da continuidade de investigações sobre o perfil nutricional de crianças e adolescentes e demonstram a necessidade de um planejamento de ações que proporcionem uma reversão desses achados. / The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of different nutritional status among Brazilian children and adolescents (male and female), from the identification of underweight, overweight and obesity behavior trends in a period of six years. This trend study was performed with a voluntary sample of 37.801. Data was obtained from the PROESP-Br (Brazil Sport Project) database. Sample was clustered in three periods of time (I=2005-2006; II= 2007-2008; and III=2009 to 2011), in two age groups (children: 7 for 10 years old and adolescents: 11 to 14 years old), and stratified for sex. The weight and height was measured for teachers at school during physical education class and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. BMI was stratified in underweight, eutrophic, overweight and obesity, according with Conde and Monteiro (2006) criteria. To assess the association between time periods and nutritional profile categories, we used the Pearson chi-square test and to identify of trends in underweight, overweight and obesity prevalence were conducted using multiple logistic regression (overall α level of 5%).. Results showed, of underweight, a significant prevalence decrease probability in male adolescents in 2005-06 to 2007-08 and increase in female children in 2007-08 to 2009- 11, although in all categories of age and sex, the occurrences have been less than 5%. We observed in the overweight, an occurrence increase probability in period I to II (2005-2006 to 2007-2008) in male children, and prevalence close to 20% in the others age and gender categories. Also, we found an occurrence increase probability in obesity in the period I to II in all age categories and both sexes, but remained stable until the last period study (2009 -2011). This possibly indicates a plateau in prevalence. However, the population of Brazilian children and adolescents is composed of approximately 30% of cases of overweight and obesity. The results show the importance of continuing investigations about nutritional status of children and adolescents and demonstrate the need for action planning to provide a reversal of these findings.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi descrever a prevalência de diferentes estados nutricionais de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros, identificando a tendência do comportamento do baixo peso, do sobrepeso e da obesidade ao longo de um período de seis anos. Este estudo de tendência foi realizado com uma amostra voluntária de 37.801 escolares, provenientes do banco de dados do Projeto Esporte Brasil (PROESPBr). A amostra foi agrupada em três períodos de tempo (I= 2005-2006; II= 2007-2008; e, III= 2009 a 2011) e por idades (crianças: 7 a 10 anos, e adolescentes: 11 a 14 anos), além de, estratificada por sexo. A massa corporal e a estatura foram avaliadas pelos professores nas escolas, e o índice de massa corporal (IMC) foi calculado posteriormente. O IMC foi classificado em baixo peso, eutrófico, sobrepeso e obesidade, conforme os critérios propostos por Conde e Monteiro (2006). Para verificação da associação entre os períodos de tempo e as categorias do perfil nutricional foi utilizado o teste do qui-quadrado de Pearson e na identificação da tendência da prevalência do baixo peso, do sobrepeso e da obesidade, ao longo dos últimos seis anos, recorreu-se ao teste de Regressão Logística Multinomial (em ambos procedimentos o nível de significância foi de 5%). Os resultados apontaram, no baixo peso, uma probabilidade da ocorrência diminuir significativamente nos adolescentes do sexo masculino do ano de 2005-06 para 2007-08, e uma probabilidade da prevalência aumentar significativamente nas crianças do sexo feminino entre o ano de 2007-08 para 2009-11, embora em todas as categorias de idade e sexo, as ocorrências tenham sido menores que 5%. Observamos no sobrepeso, uma probabilidade da ocorrência aumentar do período I para o II (2005-2006 para 2007-2008), nas crianças do sexo masculino, e prevalências sempre próximas a 20% nas demais categorias de idade e sexo. Encontramos, além disso na obesidade, uma probabilidade da prevalência aumentar significativamente do período I para o II em todas as categorias de idade e nos dois sexos, sendo que não foi observado uma permanência do aumento. Entretanto as ocorrências, tanto no sobrepeso como na obesidade, permaneceram elevadas no último período avaliado (2009 a 2011), indicando possivelmente um platô das prevalências. No entanto, a população de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros é composta por aproximadamente 30% de casos com sobrepeso e obesidade. Esses resultados apontam a importância da continuidade de investigações sobre o perfil nutricional de crianças e adolescentes e demonstram a necessidade de um planejamento de ações que proporcionem uma reversão desses achados. / The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of different nutritional status among Brazilian children and adolescents (male and female), from the identification of underweight, overweight and obesity behavior trends in a period of six years. This trend study was performed with a voluntary sample of 37.801. Data was obtained from the PROESP-Br (Brazil Sport Project) database. Sample was clustered in three periods of time (I=2005-2006; II= 2007-2008; and III=2009 to 2011), in two age groups (children: 7 for 10 years old and adolescents: 11 to 14 years old), and stratified for sex. The weight and height was measured for teachers at school during physical education class and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. BMI was stratified in underweight, eutrophic, overweight and obesity, according with Conde and Monteiro (2006) criteria. To assess the association between time periods and nutritional profile categories, we used the Pearson chi-square test and to identify of trends in underweight, overweight and obesity prevalence were conducted using multiple logistic regression (overall α level of 5%).. Results showed, of underweight, a significant prevalence decrease probability in male adolescents in 2005-06 to 2007-08 and increase in female children in 2007-08 to 2009- 11, although in all categories of age and sex, the occurrences have been less than 5%. We observed in the overweight, an occurrence increase probability in period I to II (2005-2006 to 2007-2008) in male children, and prevalence close to 20% in the others age and gender categories. Also, we found an occurrence increase probability in obesity in the period I to II in all age categories and both sexes, but remained stable until the last period study (2009 -2011). This possibly indicates a plateau in prevalence. However, the population of Brazilian children and adolescents is composed of approximately 30% of cases of overweight and obesity. The results show the importance of continuing investigations about nutritional status of children and adolescents and demonstrate the need for action planning to provide a reversal of these findings.

Magister Commercii - MCom / The transition of South Africa's political system from an apartheid administration to a democratic rule in 1994 resulted in the end of years of international sanctions imposed on the country. This move placed the country back on the global trading market. In addition, improvements in living conditions, education attainment, and labour market outcomes of societal groups who were previously disadvantaged by the apartheid administration were expected. Looking at the labour market in greater detail, government devised policies aimed at addressing, amongst others, the racial and gender inequalities in job access and remuneration as well as improving the employment conditions. Despite these attempts, women have been known to be subjected to different kinds of discrimination. As a result, they have been segregated, and in most case were over-represented in low income, less secure employment as well as over-represented in the unemployed pool of the labour force. Numerous South African studies in the past only derived the “trends” labour market activities by gender since the transition by comparing the 1995 October Household Survey (OHS) with the latest available Labour Force Survey (LFS), without taking into consideration the comparability issues of the datasets. Hence, this thesis uses all the South African labour survey data in 1995-2009 to investigate the trends in the performance of each gender in the labour market since the transition, specifically looking at the following: labour force participation likelihood, employment likelihood, remuneration and working conditions of the employed, characteristics of the unemployed, as well as whether gender discrimination in the labour market (with specific focus on employment probability gap and wage gap) still exists since the advent of democracy.

Magister Economicae - MEcon / The South African economy faces a challenging socio-economic problem of high and persistent unemployment since the transition. Looking at the unemployment problem in greater perspective, numerous studies found that it is most serious amongst the youth. Since the beginning of the 2000s, a few studies focused particularly on youth and graduate unemployment, but there has been a lack of research in this area in recent years. Hence, this dissertation aims to fill some gap in the available research by investigating the extent, nature and causes of graduate unemployment in South Africa. This study firstly defined the relevant concepts and discussed some theories relevant to graduate unemployment, before reviewing the results of the past studies on the nature and extent of graduate unemployment. Thereafter, the possible causes were investigated, such as lack of experience, lack of soft skills, skills mismatch, poor quality of education of the graduates, discrimination by employers, etc. Graduate unemployment in India, China and Europe were also considered, and it was found that graduate unemployment was not in a unique problem in South Africa. The study proceeded with an analysis the Statistics South Africa 1995-2010 labour survey data and conducted more up-to-date statistical analyses of the profile of graduate unemployed. The results showed that the characteristics of unemployed graduates were, in general, the same as what was found by the previous studies, as graduate unemployed were more likely to be female and black, aged 15-34 years at the time of the survey, residing in Gauteng, with only post-Matric certificates or diplomas, and graduating from the fields of Business /Commerce / Management, and Education / Training / Development. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was also applied, and the results indicated that employment discrimination against black graduates was very likely, after controlling for differences in demographic and educational attainment blacks and whites. Hence, the results of the empirical analysis showed that graduate unemployment persists. Finally, graduate employment elasticity coefficients and employment absorption rates were derived by educational attainment category, and the results showed that although graduate unemployment is clearly less serious than unemployment in other educational categories, the labour demand for graduates is not rapid enough to absorb all the graduates.

Given financial constraints, drug manufacturers are required to provide pharmacoeconomic evaluations to demonstrate the value for money of their drug compared to current treatment when requesting reimbursement by publicly funded health care systems. This thesis is a retrospective examination of pharmacoeconomic evaluations submitted for review to the Common Drug Review process. Its purpose was to determine the pattern of adherence to guidelines, trends in methodological quality, and transparency, changes in the adoption and practice of sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods, use of indirect treatment comparison, and identify methodological factors−determinants of recommendations. Using an instrument that was developed and tested, information from 201 pharmacoeconomic evaluations was collected and analysed. Pharmacoeconomic evaluations may have improved over time in terms of adherence, methodological quality, transparency, use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis and indirect treatment comparison. However, such improvements have been minimal and further efforts are needed to better improve pharmacoeconomic evaluations in the future.