Thesis (Ph.D.)--Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2007. / Adviser: Wilson Tong. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D. in Leadership and Policy Studies)--Vanderbilt University, Aug. 2006. / Title from title screen. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Nevada, Reno, 2006. / "December, 2006." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 38-40). Online version available on the World Wide Web.

This work was undertaken with a view to construct a macroeconometric model for the Indian economy for purposes of forecasting and policy simulation. As a prelude to this exercise, we have surveyed available forecasting techniques, techniques of evaluation of forecasts and forecasting models and the issues concerning the use of macroeconometric models in the context of policy analysis. We have also considered specific issues and considerations relevant in the context of developing countries. As a second step towards providing a proper perspective to our model, and to derive useful guidelines, we have surveyed and reviewed existing macro-econometric models of the Indian economy. This survey concerns the models built by Narasimham, Choudhry, Krishnamurty, Krishnamurty-Choudhry, Marwah, Mammen, Agarwala, Pandit, Gupta, Bhattacharya and UNCTAD. We notice that an interesting variety of sectoral emphasis is offered in these models although in general they are all based on the IS-LM framework. As a part of the review of the existing models, we have re-estimated three models, viz., models by Choudhry, Marwah and Bhattacharya under common sample conditions and estimation techniques and have compared their forecasting performance against alternative autoregressive benchmark models. In general, the benchmark models do better but the performance of Bhattacharya and Marwah models, in their adapted versions, seems to be satisfactory. A common shortcoming of all these models is an underexploration of the fiscal sector of the economy. Generally, the government budget restraint has been ignored, the treatment of tax functions is highly aggregated and all government expenditure variables are treated as exogenous. Furthermore, the estimates in these models have become dated because of major data revisions. On these grounds and also as a part of continuing efforts towards building macroeconometric models for the Indian economy, we have specified, estimated and analysed a new model containing thirty four equations out of which eighteen are stochastic. Its special features are an endogenous treatment of government consumption expenditure, a disaggregated treatment of tax-revenue functions, an endogenous money-supply function and a distinction between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in terms of prices, outputs and investments. The model is estimated by mixed estimation procedures. In particular, two stage least squares with subsets of predetermined variables in the first stage and with first order autoregressive corrections in a few cases have been used. The model is used for forecasting and policy simulation. Its forecasting performance, within the sample period, and in a 'pseudo' forecast period is found to be satisfactory compared against 'naive' and 'not-so-naive' extrapolative benchmark models. Various policy simulations have been done and subsequently the model is used for conditional forecasting. We find that increases in government consumption expenditure have detrimental effects on real output, that changes in tax-rates and discount rates have very marginal impact on the system and that important policy changes relate to expenditure variables and government deficit financing.

Der Beitrag analysiert die Präzision der Aufkommensprognose wichtiger Bundesabgaben der Jahre 1976 bis 2002 in Österreich. Dadurch wird eine im Schrifttum bestehende Forschungs- und Informationslücke verringert. Eine Prognose wird dazu als präzise verstanden, wenn sie sowohl unverzerrt als auch im Mittel genau ist. Die Prognose des Steueraufkommens auf Bundesebene ist in Österreich gemessen am Bruttogesamtabgabenaufkommen präzise. Dennoch sind aufgrund der unpräzisen Prognosen wichtiger Einzelsteuern Verbesserungen möglich. Als mögliche Ursachen für die Verschätzungen werden die Organisation der Prognose, die verwendeten Prognosemethoden, der Vorsteuerbetrug, Ausgliederungstendenzen aus dem Staatshaushalt und neue kommunale Finanzierungsformen isoliert. Eine Erhöhung der Präzision sollte durch die Kombination mehrerer unabhängiger Prognosen zu einer Gesamtprognose, durch eine stärkere Dokumentation der Prognose, durch die Verwendung univariater Zeitreihenmethoden für die Prognose des Aufkommens an veranlagter Einkommensteuer und an Körperschaftsteuer und durch die Reduktion (Umsatzsteuer) bzw. Erhöhung (Mineralölsteuer) der verwendeten Aufkommenselastizitäten erreicht werden.

The economic and political condition of a country usually determines its fiscal policy. When Chiang Ching-Kuo was in charge of Taiwan¡¦s political and economic power between 1972-1988, his administration pushed forward many new public policies and economic growth plan in order for Taiwan to continue development. There were several different exhaustive expenditures and transfer payments. The financial resources to make this happen include tax revenue, commercial revenue, administrative revenue and debt-created revenue. The fiscal policy is necessary and important complimentary part of a government¡¦s public administrative policy and economic development plan. However, under the democratic system of Taiwan, fiscal policy is often over used or abused. On the one hand, the government¡¦s expenditure in national defense, social security, education, economic development, etc., continue to expand; on the other hand, tax revenue continue to be cut down to please the constituents. On the surface, this policy during reign of Chiang Ching-Kuo did not appear to have any financial burden; in truth the potential fiscal deficit has already began to grow. Unfortunately, this negative impact by the policy did not become apparent until the recent years. Economic growth has always been the goal of all governments around the world. When economists report on the economic development plan of his/her country, most will assent that the fiscal policy is the key to the economic growth. My dissertation is focused on the period from 1972-1988 when Chiang Ching-Kuo is in control of Taiwan. I will focus on how the financial expenditures and revenues, as well as tax burden, income distribution, public debit and credit, investment encouragement and import-export policies, together with the economic facts of the time, to correlate in further detail the meaning and affect of the past policies. Furthermore, I hope to gain new economic insights through restudying of past, and allow this dissertation be of help to the present economic administration.

Project (M.U.A.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1991. / Includes bibliographical references (leaf 27). Also available via the Internet.

The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the quality of forecasts of tax revenues. Detail focuses on the town of Nachod, wherein by means of selected quantitative Methods I am trying to suggest potential estimate for tax revenues. Furthermore, based on publicly available data, analyze ten other similarly sized towns. Comparing prediction cities with the estimate of the Ministry of Finance and the reality. Based on these data, I am trying to prove or disprove the hypothesis that the city predicted earnings consistently underestimate, while the Ministry of Finance is overestimates. The results of the analysis of Nachod based on the possibility of more accurate predictions for income taxes using the method of exponential smoothing. For value added tax and land value tax, then using the method of average growth. The hypothesis can be confirmed only partially. Municipalities actually understate their income often. The Finance Ministry, however, in its prediction does not commit more frequent overstatement.

Transportation funding is critical to maintaining the assets that provide mobility for the movement of Georgia's people and goods. Currently, most of Georgia's transportation revenue is provided by the motor fuel tax. Inflation and recent increases in fuel economy have decreased fuel tax revenue in Georgia and weakened the Georgia Department of Transportation's (GDOT)'s ability to maintain and expand its transportation network. This thesis synthesizes factors from literature that affect motor fuel tax revenue. These include demographic, economic, technological, and environmental forces that influence travel behavior and vehicle fuel economy. A model was then created that incorporated these factors to model GDOT's 2009 fuel tax revenue and then project revenue in 2020 and 2030. The model uses an input/output structure that segments the fleet into personal, freight, and transit categories. User inputs, historical data, and projections are linked via relationships and feedback loops to project travel and fuel tax revenue forward. Because a near-infinite number of scenarios exist, conservative and aggressive scenarios were created for 2020 and 2030 scenarios that output revenue on an absolute, per-mile, and per-capita basis for comparison with more recent revenues. The model outputs predict marginal declines in revenue by 2020 and significant declines by 2030. In response to these declines, the thesis evaluates methods of increasing transportation revenue. These methods include increasing the fuel tax, incorporating a VMT-fee, and widespread tolling measures. After evaluation, a policy recommendation is provided for how to best implement revenue strategies.

This thesis focuses on the composition of tax revenue in developing countries and analyses its determinants and consequences. The first part examines the political economy factors shaping tax revenue composition, by considering the impact of elections and democratization, while the second part deals with the consequences of specific tax revenue compositions in terms of tax revenue stabilization and social welfare. Several results emerge. Elections have a significant influence on tax revenue composition since indirect tax revenues are decreased in election times (Chapter 1). These electoral manipulations are less strong in countries where democracy is well-established. Moreover, Chapter 2 found that a more democratic political regime, with strong constraints on the executive, helps to enhance domestic tax revenues that are necessary to replace the lost revenues from trade liberalization. The second part of the thesis reveals interesting results on the effects of tax revenue composition on the stabilization of tax revenue and on its social incidence. Chapter 3 highlighted the importance of finding remedies to tax revenue instability since it induces public spending instability which in turn decreases the level of public investment. A higher reliance on domestic indirect taxes in total tax revenues has been found to lead to the stabilization of tax revenue. In addition, the results of Chapter 4 showed that the value-added tax significantly reduces tax revenue instability in the developing countries where it was adopted. The social incidence of domestic indirect taxes was compared to the social incidence of tariffs in Chapter 5 and it was established that tariffs are more regressive than taxes on consumption in Burkina Faso.