The accurate (exact) prediction of tax revenue is a very important task for state budget planning. Both underestimation and overestimation of the planned revenue could cause problems in case the revenue is used to finance government functions. In the past few years planning of profit tax revenue was not very exact: the sum of the profit tax collected was considerably smaller or considerably larger than the planned profit tax revenue. The difference between the actual and planned revenue was about 12–56 % every year. There are several related factors which aggravate profit tax revenue modelling. It is doubtful if the indicator of profit tax revenue is stationary. The assumption of the stationarity of indicators is usually made when applying econometric models to the indicators. This problem is caused by a frequent change of the Profit tax law. In addition, transitional processes, invoked by privatization, integration to EU, and etc were typical of the Lithuanian economy in the past few years. Therefore very general equations used to describe the profit tax revenue of macroeconometric models of many countries are not relevant to model and predict the profit tax revenue in Lithuania. In order to predict budget revenues accurately, their modelling methodology needs to be created so as to be effective in the situation where regression relations are complicated while disposable series of observations are rather short (the quarterly profit indicators have been known since 1998 in... [to full text]

Ekonominio nuosmukio sąlygomis, fiskalinės politikos sprendimai ypač svarbūs, nes vienokie ar kitokie žingsniai gali sutrumpinti arba pailginti ir pagilinti ūkio nuosmukį. Tokiu metu ekonomikos dalyviai labai jautriai reaguoja į fiskalinės politikos klaidas. Taigi svarbu tinkamai įvertinti kiekvieno sprendimo pasekmes. Dabartinės sąlygos neleidžia didinti valstybės išlaidų bei biudžeto deficito ir taip skatinti ekonominį atsigavimą. Tenka mažinti išlaidas ir stengtis didinti pajamas labai tam nepalankiu metu. Siekiant padidinti mokestines pajamas didinant mokestinę naštą, įvertinti tik aritmetinį to rezultatą nepakanka. Teorija ir empiriniai Lietuvos ir kitų šalių biudžeto surinkimo duomenys rodo, kad didesni mokesčiai ne visada lemia didesnes mokestines pajamas dėl dviejų priežasčių: dėl sumažėjusio ekonominio aktyvumo ir dėl šešėlinės ekonomikos dalies didėjimo. Viena iš pagrindinių šešėlinės ekonomikos plėtros priežasčių, kaip parodė daugelis tyrimų visame pasaulyje, yra mokestinė našta ir valstybės reguliavimas. Apibendrinus visas sąlygas Lietuvoje - ekonomikos smukimą, neigiamus ekonomikos dalyvių lūkesčius ir kita - paaiškėja, kad susidaro gana palanki aplinka šešėlinės ekonomikos plėtrai. Atsižvelgiant į biudžeto surinkimo duomenis ir atliktus tyrimus, galima daryti prielaidą, kad šešėlinės ekonomikos plėtra Lietuvoje galėjo lemti didesnį nei prognozuota ekonomikos smukimą. Turint omenyje mažesnį nei planuota biudžeto surinkimą ir padidinus mokesčius, galima... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / During the economic slowdown, fiscal policy decisions are very important because they can shorten or lengthen and deepen economic downturn. At these times economic actors are very sensitive to fiscal policy mistakes. So it is important to evaluate the consequences of every single decision. Today’s situation does not allow stimulation of economy by increasing government expenditure and budget deficit. One must reduce expenditure and increase revenue in such unfavourable time. While trying to increase tax revenue by increasing tax burden, it is not sufficient to evaluate only arithmetical effect. Theory and empirical Lithuanian and other countries budget collection show that higher taxes do not always bring higher tax revenue because of two reasons: lower economic activity and increase in shadow economy. According to numerous surveys, the main reason of shadow economy is tax burden and state regulation. By summing up all the conditions – economic slowdown, negative expectation of economic actors and other – it is quite clear that the conditions for shadow economy are quite favourable. Considering budget collection and surveys, increase in shadow economy could have encouraged higher than forecasted economic slowdown. Lower than planned budget collection even with higher taxes allow to forecast that further increase in tax burden would only decrease tax revenue. Furthermore, collection of separate taxes shows that the collection of those taxes which were increased, differed from... [to full text]

The accurate (exact) prediction of tax revenue is a very important task for state budget planning. Both underestimation and overestimation of the planned revenue could cause problems in case the revenue is used to finance government functions. In the past few years planning of profit tax revenue was not very exact: the sum of the profit tax collected was considerably smaller or considerably larger than the planned profit tax revenue. The difference between the actual and planned revenue was about 12–56 % every year. There are several related factors which aggravate profit tax revenue modelling. It is doubtful if the indicator of profit tax revenue is stationary. The assumption of the stationarity of indicators is usually made when applying econometric models to the indicators. This problem is caused by a frequent change of the Profit tax law. In addition, transitional processes, invoked by privatization, integration to EU, and etc were typical of the Lithuanian economy in the past few years. Therefore very general equations used to describe the profit tax revenue of macroeconometric models of many countries are not relevant to model and predict the profit tax revenue in Lithuania. In order to predict budget revenues accurately, their modelling methodology needs to be created so as to be effective in the situation where regression relations are complicated while disposable series of observations are rather short (the quarterly profit indicators have been known since 1998 in... [to full text]

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bernardino Josafat da Silva Castanho.pdf: 1318335 bytes, checksum: 7d9c7ee77462f4c2f552382199c35477 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04-01 / The main objective of this dissertation is the research of a formal model for the monthly forecast of the Value Added Taxes on sales and services (ICMS) collected by the State of Espírito Santo, derived from the term series data analysis of the tax revenue from January 2000 to December 2009 and from the composition basis of the taxation incidence of the tax. The statistical characteristics of the ICMS series were identified and forecasts were drawn up with the use of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models, of Box-Jenkins methodology, with intervention analysis for structural change detection and of a causal econometric model with dynamic structure. For the specification of the econometric model, the most relevant sectors of the economy that compose the ICMS tax basis and directly influence the tax revenue have been identified. It was chosen the mixed econometric model with multiple regression and only one behavioral equation. The predictive performance of the models was compared through the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), in order to choose the one that shows the best estimate for the year 2010, used as basis of efficiency evaluation of the generated ex-post forecast / Esta dissertação tem como principal objetivo a pesquisa de um modelo formal para a previsão de receitas tributárias estaduais do ICMS do Estado do Espírito Santo a partir da análise dos dados da série temporal da arrecadação no período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2009 e da composição da base de incidência tributária do imposto. Foram identificadas as características estatísticas da série do ICMS e elaboradas previsões com utilização dos modelos de alisamento exponencial de Holt-Winters, da metodologia de Box-Jenkins, com análise de intervenção para detecção de mudança estrutural, e de um modelo econométrico causal com estrutura dinâmica. Para a especificação do modelo econométrico foram identificados os setores mais relevantes da economia que compõem a base tributária do ICMS e influenciam diretamente a arrecadação. Foi escolhida a modelagem econométrica mista com regressão múltipla e uma só equação comportamental. O desempenho preditivo dos modelos foi comparado através do erro percentual absoluto médio, para a escolha daquele que apresentar a melhor estimativa para o ano de 2010, utilizado como base de avaliação da eficiência da previsão ex-post gerada

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-07-22T12:30:23Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL - VERSÃO ONLINE - MARCO T J B RIBEIRO.pdf: 1793529 bytes, checksum: 71605666c75b8e0067e3a0967cd19eca (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-22T12:30:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL - VERSÃO ONLINE - MARCO T J B RIBEIRO.pdf: 1793529 bytes, checksum: 71605666c75b8e0067e3a0967cd19eca (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-25 / CAPEs / O objetivo desta dissertação é evidenciar se os reflexos da LRF, que tratam da efetiva arrecadação de receitas próprias, geraram algum impacto percebido nos índices que denotam a relação entre as receitas tributárias e as receitas correntes em pequenos municípios brasileiros com até vinte mil habitantes. Ressalta-se a eficácia e a eficiência no exercício da competência de cobrar os tributos, entretanto, tal tarefa tem como objetivo ampliar os recursos disponíveis para a prestação de serviços com a excelência que o contribuinte exige em contrapartida dos valores pagos, visando efetividade e resultados de uma gestão pública municipal. Com base na revisão teórica realizada, se estabeleceram quatro hipóteses, sendo as três primeiras construídas para realização de análises comparativas, utilizando o teste U de Mann-Whitney, quanto aos níveis de arrecadação de receita tributária em todas as Regiões Brasileiras, segregadas por seus respectivos Estados, para os exercícios financeiros de 1999 e 2001, 1999 e 2013, além de 2001 e 2013; já a quarta e última hipótese, por meio de testes multivariados utilizando análise de regressão múltipla, tratou da relação entre a efetivação de receita tributária com o tamanho populacional, os efeitos da edição da LRF e renda per capita dos 2.744 pequenos municípios brasileiros da amostra, separados pelas cinco regiões, numa perspectiva antes (1999) e após (2013) a promulgação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal. Assim, aplicou-se o indicador de receita tributária dos municípios (IN), variável dependente, em função das variáveis independentes faixa populacional (FP), dummy LRF e renda per capita (RPC) nos cinco modelos gerados. Em relação ao exposto, foi utilizado o banco de dados FINBRA vinculado ao Sistema de Informações Contábeis e Fiscais do Setor Público Brasileiro (SICONFI/STN/MF), além das informações quanto a renda per capita das pequenas cidades retiradas do banco de dados PNUD (2013), com manipulação das informações no software SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Science), versão 20, para execução das análises estatísticas propostas. Pelos resultados dos comparativos alcançados é possível concluir alguns aspectos relevantes no que diz respeito à obrigação de efetivar receita tributária com a promulgação da LRF nas cidades com até 20.000 habitantes. Nos anos 1999 e 2001, em geral, pode-se inferir que os reflexos da edição da LRF não foram suficientes para que houvesse um maior incremento no processo de obtenção de receita tributária para os municípios. Neste período pode ter ocorrido um efeito de aprendizagem na implementação de procedimentos, visto que ocorreu a efetivação de tal receita em 41,67% da amostra. Nos comparativos entre os anos 1999 e 2013, além de 2001 e 2013, na questão da eficácia, de modo geral, houve crescimento da arrecadação tributária nos pequenos municípios, tendo como base as diferenças estatisticamente significativas apresentadas em 91,67% da amostra. Porém, na questão da eficiência, os índices são muito incipientes dentro das receitas correntes dos municípios, visto que representam na média, aproximadamente, 3% para os municípios da Região Nordeste, 5% para as pequenas cidades das Regiões Norte e Sudeste, 6% para a Região Sul e 8% para a Região Centro-Oeste. Neste aspecto, pode-se supor que nos exercícios financeiros de 1999 e 2013, a influência exercida pela variável dummy LRF, com sinal negativo nos modelos de regressão das Regiões Nordeste, Norte, Sul e Sudeste, contribuiu para um cenário de lento crescimento, diferentemente do ocorrido na Região Centro-Oeste onde apresentou uma influência com sinal positivo, mostrando uma maior participação da receita tributária dentro das receitas correntes após a promulgação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal. / The aim of this work is to show whether the effects of the LRF, dealing with effective collection of own revenues, generated some perceived impact on the indices that show the relationship between tax revenues and current revenues in small municipalities with up to twenty thousand inhabitants. Emphasizes the effectiveness and efficiency in the exercise of the power to levy taxes, however, this task aims to expand the resources available for the provision of services to excellence that the taxpayer demands in return for the amounts paid, aimed effectiveness and results a municipal public administration. Based on the literature review performed settled four hypotheses, the first three being built to carry out comparative analyzes using the Mann-Whitney U test, as the tax revenue collection levels in all Brazilian Regions, divided by their respective States, for the financial years 1999 and 2001, 1999 and 2013 as well as 2001 and 2013; already the fourth and final event, through multivariate tests using multiple regression analysis, dealt with the relationship between the effectiveness of tax revenue to the population size, the effects of the issue of LRF and per capita income of 2,744 small municipalities of the sample, separated by five regions, with a view before (1999) and after (2013) the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. So we applied the tax revenue indicator municipalities (IN), the dependent variable, according to the independent variables population group (FP), dummy LRF and per capita income (PRC) in the five generated models. Regarding the above, we used the FINBRA database linked to the System of Financial Reporting and Tax Brazilian Public Sector (SICONFI / STN / MF), in addition to information on the per capita income of the small towns taken from PNUD(2013) database, with manipulation of information in SPSS (statistical Package for Social Sciences), version 20, for implementation of the proposed statistical analyzes. The results of comparative achieved it can be concluded that some aspects with regard to the obligation to make tax revenue with the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Law in cities with up to 20,000 residents. In the years 1999 and 2001, in general, it can be inferred that the LRF edition reflexes were not enough for there to be a greater increase in the process of obtaining tax revenue to municipalities. This period may have been a learning effect in the implementation procedures, as was the realization of such revenues by 41.67% of the sample. In comparison between 1999 and 2013, and 2001 and 2013 on the issue of effectiveness in general, growth of tax collection in small municipalities, based on the statistically significant differences observed in 91.67% of the sample. However, the issue of efficiency, the rates are very incipient within the current revenues of the municipalities, since they represent on average approximately 3% for municipalities in the Northeast, 5% for small cities in the North and East, 6% for Southern and 8% for the Midwest Region. In this respect, it can be assumed that the financial years 1999 and 2013, the influence exerted by the dummy variable LRF, with a negative sign in the regression models of the Northeast, North, South and Southeast, contributed to a slow growth scenario, unlike of what happened in the Midwest where he presented an influence with a positive sign, showing a greater share of tax revenues within the current income after the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

nÃo hà / Este trabalho analisa o efeito da polÃtica industrial do CearÃ, apoiada pelo Fundo de Desenvolvimento Industrial - FDI e instrumentalizada pelo Programa de Incentivo ao Desenvolvimento Industrial na receita tributÃria de ICMS. O objetivo principal da pesquisa à aplicar um modelo economÃtrico com dados em painel que comprove o efeito da renÃncia fiscal na receita de ICMS do segmento industrial, bem como avaliar o comportamento da elasticidade da receita, relativamente à Margem de Valor Agregado (MVA), praticada pelos participantes das setoriais de Alimento, Bebida, CalÃado e TÃxtil. A evidÃncia empÃrica se baseia em dados produzidos em dois momentos, antes e apÃs a sua concessÃo para o mesmo conjunto de setores. Os resultados do modelo economÃtrico validaram a sua especificaÃÃo, comprovando, assim, o efeito nÃo uniforme do FDI na receita de cada setorial, conforme a magnitude de sua elasticidade. Ademais, as estimativas comprovaram a natureza das elasticidades das setoriais: Alimento - inelÃstica; Bebida e TÃxtil - elÃstica. Quanto à eficÃcia da polÃtica industrial para o desenvolvimento econÃmico regional conclui-se que CalÃado à a Ãnica setorial cuja renÃncia fiscal foi plenamente compensada pela expansÃo da base tributÃria de sua cadeia produtiva. / This study examines the effect of industrial policy of CearÃ, supported by the Industrial Development Fund and exploited by the Program for Encouragement of Industrial Development in tax revenues of ICMS. It is applied an econometric model with panel data to estimate the effect of the tax waiver on ICMS revenue of the industrial segment as well as to evaluate the behavior of the elasticity of revenue, for the Margin Value Added (MVA), practiced by the participants of the sector of Food, Beverage, Footwear and Textile. The empirical evidence is based on data produced on two occasions, before and after the implementation of tax benefits for the same set of industries. The results validated the specification of the model, which demonstrated that the effect of FDI is not uniform in revenue for all sectors. According to the magnitude of the elasticities, there are statistical evidences that such effects are inelastic for the Food sector, elastic for Beverage and Textile sectors, but inconclusive for Footwear sector. As for the effectiveness of industrial policy for regional economic development: Footwear is the only sector whose tax waiver was fully compensated by the expansion of tax base of the production chain.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:33:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Denis Sarak.pdf: 952826 bytes, checksum: 7ceb595ec040165860fea8f38037e43b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-29 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / This paper aims to analyze the legal consequence of the manipulation of transfer pricing and the performance of state to preserve the free competition and the proceeds of tax revenues. Relies on studying the evolution of economic relations from the perspective of the performance of multinational companies, focused on operational and commercial management process, on a global scope. Identifies the economic effects of transactions and tax charged by transfer pricing and lists the legal consequences of the manipulation of prices in these operations, with especial attention to the impacts caused in an environment of free market and also the product (amount) of tax revenue to the State. Analyzes the importance of governmental actions in the supervision of the abuse carried out in the operation of transfer pricing in order to maintain the basic structure of the market economy and its main source of encouragement, the tribute. Explained analytically and exemplify the methods for controlling and monitoring established by OECD, as well as alternative ways of achieving the objective arm‟s length. It also analyzes the matter by the national legal system's bias and in the end are proposed some critics and suggestions about specific issues under Law 9.430/96 and other infra-legal norms that govern the discipline. / O presente trabalho tempo objetivo analisar as conseqüências jurídicas da manipulação dos preços de transferência e a atuação do Estado em busca da preservação da livre concorrência e do produto de arrecadação fiscal. Invoca o estudo da evolução das relações econômicas sob a ótica da atuação das empresas multinacionais, com enfoque principal para o processo de gestão operacional e comercial em bases globais. Identifica os efeitos econômicos e fiscais das transações praticadas mediante preços de transferência e elenca as conseqüências jurídicas da manipulação dos preços praticados nestas operações, com especial atenção, aos impactos causados em um ambiente de livre mercado e também, no produto de arrecadação fiscal dos Estados. Analisa importância da atuação do Estado na fiscalização do abuso praticado nas operações de preços de transferência, como forma de preservar as estruturas fundamentais da economia de mercado e sua principal fonte de fomento, o tributo. Expõe de maneira analítica e exemplificativa os métodos de controle e fiscalização estabelecidos pela OCDE, bem como, formas alternativas de se alcançar a finalidade arm s length. Analisa também, a matéria a luz do ordenamento jurídico pátrio e ao final, são propostas críticas e sugestões a cerca de questões específicas previstas na Lei 9.430/96 e demais normas infralegais que disciplinam a matéria.

Magister Legum - LLM

1 Abstract To study the effect a change in a tax base has on the corresponding tax revenue is a useful tool to better predict future tax revenues. This property is called a tax revenue elasticity but generally it does not get as much attention as it deserves, and when it does, key points like using data adjusted for the effects of tax reforms or distinguishing between the short-run (instantaneous) and the long-run (equilibrium) elasticity are often omitted. In my thesis, I am the first one to estimate the tax revenue elasticities for Slovakia. I use a unique dataset adjusted for the effects of tax reforms and tax changes to estimate both the short-run and the long-run elasticities for the three tax categories th at account for the majority of each year's tax revenue - Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax and Value Added Tax. I obtain a long-run elasticity of 0.98, 1.28 and 0.94 for the Personal Income Tax, the Corporate Income Tax and the Value Added Tax respectively and a short-run elasticity of 3.51 and 1.93 for the Corporate Income Tax and the Value Added Tax respectively. I do not obtain a significant estimate in the case of the Personal Income Tax. Additionally, I find that it takes more than a year for the elasticity to reach its equilibrium value for all the three tax categories and that there...

There are many recent studies which try to find the evidence of the Laffer curve in national economies or aggregated OECD data. In this Master Thesis I focus on testing of the primary linear relation of the corporate income tax rate and the corporate tax base, that I call herein adjusted Laffer curve. The adjusted Laffer curve is then transferred through the simplification into the ordinary Laffer curve. The linear regression analysis is performed on the OECD data of 34 countries across years 2000 to 2014. Firstly, the countries are split by the national tax system criteria, such as tax quota, tax revenue allocation or tax structure of revenues that I consider essential for further analysis. Based on the results of linear regression I can only find Laffer curve in set of countries that aim to collect tax revenues mainly from direct taxes. However, there are also other major findings, such as the fact that negative relation of the corporate income tax rate and the corporate tax base, can be found in countries with the higher tax quota, while not in those with the lower tax quota.