Approved for public release, distribution unlimited / Homeland Security Presidential Directive #8 led to the establishment of the National Exercise Program and the Top Officials exercise series to test and evaluate first response agency integration and effectiveness. The last TOPOFF exercise cost $16M and involved over 10,000 people, but did not effectively leverage simulation techniques to make efficient use of resources. This research adapts an existing organizational learning process, integrating low- and high resolution simulation to provide decision support. This process led to the development of a multi-agent simulation methodology for emergency first response, specifically applied to analyze a notional vehicle bomb attack during a festival in the Baltimore Inner Harbor. This simulation demonstrates the potential benefits of low resolution simulation, using efficient experimental design and high-performance computing. Combined, these two ideas result in examining a 48-dimensional response surface and using over 156 CPU centuries of computer time. All experiments were completed in less than three weeks. The analysis of this data set provided insight into several areas, including the importance of standing operating procedures in the early moments of a crisis. Analysis showed that effective procedures may even be more important than the effectiveness of communications devices early in a first response operation. / Outstanding Thesis / US Army (USA) author.

Este artículo se enfoca en las crisis de las organizaciones, no importa su tamaño, objeto, giro, procedencia (privada o pública) e interés (afán o no de lucrar). Está concebido para que los equipos de la alta dirección –finalmente los llamados a manejar las crisis- de empresas, corporaciones, asociaciones, organismos estatales, entidades educativas, agremiaciones, etc., puedan mejorar su capacidad para enfrentarlas, comprendiendo su compleja naturaleza y dinámica así como las herramientas necesarias para hacerles frente. Ello posibilitará anticipar y prepararse a estos eventos destructivos, orientar coherentemente la acción y la comunicación, contener rápidamente el daño y para entrar en la fase de recuperación y aprendizaje.

Presentación realizada en la Academia Nacional de Ciencias Económicas, el 15 de enero del 2009

This study views the deeper reasons for acute crises between national systems or blocs of national systems as a function of major changes within the larger international structure. It seeks to construct eclectically a systematic and analytic model of acute international crises showing their occurrence between the balance of power and bipolar structures of the international system.

The goal my diploma thesis is an analysis of the financial crisis and its impact on the sports industry in the Czech Republic. Specifically, therefore, the impact of the crisis on clubs operating in top competitions in football and hockey. The partial aim is to describe the financial crisis, or rather its origin, causes, impacts on the Czech Republic and selected sports clubs. When data acquisition is used both quantitative and qualitative research that I conducted SCILAB program. As another tool in the predictions I used LITREND. The conclusion will be made forecasts of future developments at selected clubs and forecast a further financial crisis.

It is sometimes purported that one of the factors affecting a firm's value is its capital structure. The event of the 1997 Asian financial crisis was expected to affect the firms' gearing level as the firms' earnings deteriorated and the capital market collapsed. The main objective of this research is to examine empirically the determinants of the capital structure of Malaysian firms. The main additional aim is to study the capital structure pattern following the 1997 financial crisis. Empirical tests were conducted on two different data sets: the first data set is the published data extracted from Datastream and consists of: 572 companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1994 and 2000. The second data set comprises finance managers' responses to a questionnaire survey. Chi-square, Kruskal-Wallis, ANOVA, multiple regression, stepwise regression and logistic regression were utilised to analyse the data. The multiple regression analysis was employed to find the determinants of the capital structure using various account data items provided by Datastream. The gearing differences between the two boards and within the sectors were also analysed using ANOVA and Krukal-Wallis tests. The panel data were evaluated with regard to the gearing pattern following the 1997 currency crisis. Overwhelming evidence on profit was found, with past profitability being the major determinant of gearing. In particular was the support for pecking order theory, in that finance managers had given internal funds the highest priority, followed by debt and equity as a last option. The statistical analysis found a strong negative correlation between liquidity and the gearing ratio for both boards, implying firms considered highly the excess current assets for funding, a conservative approach towards debt management policy. On the other hand, taxation items were not highly significant in capital structure decisions. The results indicate the existence of gearing differences between the main board and the second board gearing with high debt levels employed by second board companies. However, the second board's high gearing is dominated largely by short to medium term bank credit. Differences were also significant between different sectors of companies listed on the main board. Firms' gearing ratios increased significantly following the 1997 financial crisis, and the gearing tended to increase where the company's share prices were highly sensitive towards currency volatility. Also inflation is found to influence the changes in actual and target gearing ratios following the crisis. Recent emphasis on the development of private debt securities may affect the findings of this research in the near future.

No description available.

Masrer of ArtsInternational Relations / The thesis is a contribution to the existing literature on the democratic process in Malawi with specific focus on two areas namely, the factors that led to the opening up of political space and the implementation of multiparty democracy. The thesis argues that multiparty democracy in Malawi, which transpired due to internal and external factors, had been perceived as the means of transforming the oppressive climate created by the Banda regime. However, despite three multiparty elections since the 1990s, the UDF government, which succeeded Banda, has failed to broaden the avenues for the consolidation of democracy in Malawi, leading to disillusionment among the people. Ten years of multiparty democracy have only resulted in the regression to the practices of the very regime it replaced. Currently Malawi is plagued with a lack of independent media, weak civil society, corruption among top government officials and a weak economy to mention a few. The thesis argues that this is because of the nature of the ruling class as well as the issue of ethnicity, which has resulted in the contestation of power.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Boston University / This thesis theoretically and empirically analyzes the nature and consequences of interactions between family members. The first chapter tests whether children's human capital accumulation was significantly affected by earnings shocks to their nonresident kin in the context of the 1997-8 financial crisis in Indonesia. The crisis produced sudden, heterogeneous shocks that facilitate the construction of an exogenous measure of earnings changes. Results indicate that earnings shocks to nonresident kin - including extended family and relatives living in other districts- significantly affected children's human capital accumulation between 1997 and 2000, and ultimate educational attainment measured nearly a decade after the crisis hit. Supplementary results point to intra-family transfers, underpinned by ex post altruism, as an important channel of causation. The second chapter develops a theoretical model of private transfers underpinned by ex post altruism among members of a network. I use this model to analyze equilibrium transfer patterns and inequality under alternative income distributions and network structures. I demonstrate the general intuition that transfers obtain in equilibrium when the amount of altruism is sufficiently strong relative to income inequality. Within the networks that I analyze, every equilibrium involving transfers takes the same form: unique income thresholds separate senders from receivers. Effective risk sharing takes place among senders and receivers, while those at intermediate incomes remain in autarky. Every equilibrium gives rise to the same set of allocations. I contrast these predictions with insurance-based theories of transfers in which risk sharing is operative for small in come differences and may fall apart at large income differences. The third chapter uses longitudinal data spanning nearly fifteen years to test whether transfers among family members within Indonesia are consistent with ex post altruism, against the alternative of insurance. I use the predicted effects of permanent versus transitory income on transfers, as well as theoretical predictions from the second chapter regarding the shape of transfer functions , to carry out this test. The results provide some evidence that transfer motives are inconsistent with insurance but consistent with ex post altruism.

Background: Crisis and crisis management is a research topic that since the 1980s has gotten increasing amounts of attention in research. A crisis refers to an event that may have severe effects on an organisation's survival, making it important to know how to prepare for them. Interest in research about crisis preparedness has been growing. However, literature tends to focus on crisis preparedness in an MNE (Multinational Enterprises) context, thus, leaving out SMEs (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises). Nonetheless, SMEs are a large and crucial part of the economy that may equally, if not more, be affected by crises. In SMEs, the leader has a significant impact on the strategic decisions in the business, making them a crucial part of the crisis preparedness process and an important aspect to study. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to explore what factors could influence the way a leader prioritises to work with crisis preparedness in SMEs. Further, this research aims to understand how those priorities affect the level of crisis preparedness in SMEs. Method:  This study was conducted as a qualitative exploratory research in the form of a cross-sectional multiple case study. The data was collected through twelve semi-structured in-depth interviews, where all the participants were active as leaders in SMEs. The data collected in the interviews was subsequently analysed through a thematic analysis approach. Conclusion: It was found that besides the previously found external factors of SMEs, crisis preparedness is also influenced by the leader’s attitude about crisis preparedness. This attitude, in turn, is primarily formed through the leader’s understanding of crises and their personality. It was further found that the type of industry could be a factor in crisis preparedness due to for example, differing amounts of rules and regulations. In conclusion, the thesis was able to connect much of what has been found in previous research while adding a focus on the leader and their attitude about crisis preparedness.