Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the UN Senior Mission Administration and Resource Training (SMART) programme, a training course which was created to improve the management of UN peacekeeping mission resources and support functions and to improve the performance of managers in the UN Department of Field Support and Department of Peacekeeping. The history of the SMART programme and the context in whic h it was created is provided before evaluating the programme against current training and learning theory literature. The paper also examines the current and potential capacity of SMART to facilitate triple loop learning, or innovation, through the inclus ion of futures studies concepts, such as scenario-building, change and strategy management in the programme. Lastly, the study recommends that SMART learners be equipped with these futures-orientated planning tools to improve their work performance, facilitate triple loop learning and thus improve the overall organisational performance of the Department of Field Support. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsprojek analiseer die Verenigde Nasies (VN) se SMART Program (Administrasie en Hulpbron Opleidingsprogram), wat ontwikkel is om die bestuur van hulpbronne en ondersteuningsfunksies in VN Vredesmissies asook die werkverrigting van bestuurders in die VN se Departement van Veldondersteuning en Departement Vredesinstandhouding te verbeter. 'n Historiese oorsig van die SMART program asook die konteks waarin die program ontwikkel is, word eers verskaf, voordat 'n literatuurstudie gedoen word van die huidige opleidings- en leerteorië. Die studie ondersoek verder die huidige vermoë van die SMART program om trippelring-leervermoë (of innovasie) te ontwikkel deur die insluiting van toekomsstudiekonsepte soos senario-ontwikkeling en veranderings- en strategiebestuur. Ten slotte word voorgestel dat deelnemers aan die program met toekomsgeörienteerde beplanningsgereedskap toegerus word om hulle met die uitvoering van hulle take te help en trippelring-leerontwikkeling te bewerkstellig, en sodoende die oorkoepelende organisatoriese werkverrigting in die Departement van Veldondersteuning te verbeter.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / This futures studies research report uses the Six Pillars of Transformation by Inayatullah (2004) as the methodology to explore the future perspective corporate governance may take in light of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown. The problem here being to understand the corporate governance failures that led to the global economic crises and the influences these failures may have in the future of corporate governance. This research report was compiled through secondary research material. The focus of this research report is on corporate governance, in relation to business related activities in particular, as opposed to general governance and not necessarily from a South African perspective only. This is because the South African corporate governance framework, from a legal and principles point of view, is very linked to Anglo Saxon countries’ frameworks and also that the South African economy is globalised (Naidoo, 2009). The description of corporate governance, by Sir Adrian Cadbury of the UK Cadbury Report (1992), as “the balance between economic and social goals, and between individual and communal goals . . . the aim is to align as nearly as possible the interests of individuals, corporations and society” comprehensively describes corporate governance for the purposes of this research report. Of particular note to this description is the multiple stakeholder balance approach, which the South African King Reports subscribe to, for sustainability purposes among other reasons. The anticipation of the future of corporate governance, as the second pillar of futures transformation, is discussed by describing the related emerging issue analysis thereof. These issues include corporate governance convergence and diversity. However, there are significant signs in various parts of the world, including South Africa, and as Keasy, Thompson and Wright (2005) mentioned that show corporate governance convergence more than the increase of corporate governance diversity. The history of corporate governance change patterns, as the third pillar of futures transformation, are explored to bring into perspective the likely changes for exploration on establishing the future alternatives corporate governance systems may take in future. This is in light of the latest major event of the 2008/9 global economic crises. These patterns of history date back from the end of the 19th century through the great depression, the World War II period until the recent major corporate failures that happened worldwide. The future and nature of corporate governance is further deepened, as the fourth pillar of futures transformation, by applying the Causal Layered Analysis and the Four-Quadrant Map in the causes of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown by corporate governance failures. The creation of corporate governance future alternatives, as the fifth pillar of futures transformation, are explored by outlining the possible, probable, plausible and preferred futures of corporate governance from information provided by the referenced writers of this research report. The preferred and ideal corporate governance approach would be a balanced corporate governance approach that has optimally converged due to the impact by the 2008/9 global economic meltdown, globalized and market based. In the last pillar of futures transformation, transforming the future of corporate governance, the policy implications of the preferred and desired future of corporate governance, according to this research report will be outlined, notwithstanding the challenges to achieve this desired future. These policy changes are likely to be both from a self-regulatory and regulatory perspective.

Thesis (MPhil))--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / It is broadly accepted that our post-modern society is characterised by unprecedented levels of change, coupled with increasing complexity and uncertainty. In this context, the ability to successfully anticipate and adapt to changing circumstances is crucial for an organisation‟s survival and prosperity. Long-standing traditional models of organising, managing and knowing, as well as many contemporary formulations, are found to be inadequate in dealing with the challenges of high-velocity change. This study conducts a conceptual review of the diverse literatures on organisational adaptation and foresight to, first, synthesise the essential characteristics of adaptive organising; and secondly, to determine whether and how foresight can be applied to improve the effectiveness of organisational adaptation. A model of adaptive organising is developed that describes how, by adopting an emergent strategy approach via processes of exploration and experimentation and by balancing change and preservation, firms can derive new advantages from volatility. Recognising the limitations of anticipatory foresight in fast-paced environments, a socially embedded foresight practice that links macroscopic thinking and microscopic action is proposed as an enabling infrastructure for emergent strategy. It describes how foresight provides context for broad-based action, the outcome of which keeps foresight refreshed with how reality is unfolding. Finally three foresight methods, visioning, scenarios and peripheral vision, are reviewed drawing links to adaptive organising from which three propositions are put forward for future research. These foresight practices are shown to produce shared understanding and direction which stimulates collective exploratory action, and encourage alternative perspectives and interpretations of the organisation‟s situation allowing strategic variety to flourish and new advantages to emerge.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / The research undertaken in this paper explores the strategy formulation practices of large financial services organisations in South Africa. Following a review of academic sources, it was concluded that strategy formulation comprises three distinct but interdependent activities. The first is that of foresight development, followed by strategy development and finally strategic or business planning. In addition, a variety of approaches to stakeholder engagement are possible. A review of similar research identified primary research into foresight practices in Europe and the professional experiences of two South African chartered accountants of strategic or business planning. No research on strategy development was identified. Thus, the researcher chose to conduct primary research in the form of a survey to interrogate each of the strategic activities. This focused on the level of resourcing applied to each activity, the tools used, the time horizon adopted and the breadth of stakeholder engagement. A review of the South African financial services industry suggested that banking, short-term insurance and long-term insurance needed to be included in the sample. An analysis of the respective organisations‟ market share for most key products was completed. This produced a sample of twelve organisations which had a market share in excess of 10per cent as at 31 December 2009 with the exception of those selected based on total life insurance premiums, which were based on December 2008 data due to information availability. Of the twelve organisations identified 66per cent (or eight) responded to the survey which was conducted using an online survey tool. Three respondents chose to respond telephonically when contacted by the researcher. The respondents for the respective organisations were either senior managers, in several cases members of the executive team, or people involved with strategy formulation at a corporate or group level. In order to increase the response rate, the survey was conducted anonymously, thus limiting comparison been organisations and industry sectors. The result of the analysis highlighted two key dimensions on which organisations differed. The first is the time frame used. Only two organisations regularly look more than three years ahead. The second is that of stakeholder engagement. Half of the respondents are interactive and include employees in the strategy formulation process, while the other half is autocratic limiting strategy formulation activity to management and often senior management only. This lead the researcher to conclude that while a wide array of strategy formulation tools are applied, many South African financial services organisations have opportunity to improve their strategy formulation practice by being more inclusive and adopting a longer and more holistic approach to scanning and foresight as part of the foresight development activity.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The aim of this research report is to identify the alternative service delivery models that could deliver effective and efficient services to the South African public in future. The current economic realities, the effects of globalisation, the potential for technological innovation and the public‟s demand for better services have led the South African government to reconsider the manner in which services are being rendered. A futures methodology tool that was employed in understanding the environment in which services are delivered in South Africa is the environmental scanning. Environmental scanning which took the form of literature review, analysis of statistics already produced by other researchers, official publications and correspondence, newspaper surveys, pamphlets and newsletters, dissertations and theses as well as information from the internet will be employed in this study. Constructive environmental scanning which encompasses both material monism (also known as pop-ism) and the transcendental monism (Naude.2008; 53) was employed to develop a sound understanding of the environment (factors and forces) which have a bearing on the futures of the public service delivery. This exercise revealed that in South Africa services delivery is influenced by the following driving forces (environments): cultural and social, political and legislative, technological and economic. The environmental scanning also revealed that due to the importance attached to service delivery; government had to move away from the conventional approaches to public service delivery where government was the sole provider of services to the public and sought alternative ways of delivering services to the public. The following alternative service delivery models were adopted by government: contracting out, concession, leasing, privatization, management contract, and Electronic government as alternative models of service delivery. Notwithstanding the success of most of the models, some of these proved to be a breeding ground for nepotism, corruption, fraud and a paradise for white collar criminals. Political interference, that masquerades as political oversight is the order of the day. All of these are taking place at the expense of services delivery and are costing the government dearly. Government viewed this as an unhealthy state of affairs and also realised that this situation cannot be left to perpetuate into the future. Most importantly, government has awoken to the reality that the future can no longer be left to chance. Scenario planning was adopted as the research methodology employed in anticipating and preparing for the future. In the quest for v seeking alternative service delivery models for the future, the research report adopted the six stages of scenario planning. The chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life. Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely-presented situations based on facts. Scenario planning has an added benefit of allowing participants the latitude to think freely, allows creativity and encourages innovation.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / Africa is the continent where home sapiens was born and with its worn out soils, fitful rain and rising population could very well provide a glimpse of our species’ future. The trends that are behind the current deterioration in food security go far beyond agriculture itself. South Africa is food secure at a national level and has been meeting its food needs from domestic sources in the past twenty years. However, in spite of its food secure status, 35% or 14.3 million South Africans are vulnerable to food insecurity. Food security challenges appear to be considerable against a backdrop of a South Africa being a net importer of wheat together with local cereal production that can fluctuate by up to 36% between years. It is unknown to what extend the true impact of climate change might affect this and other agricultural activity; a declining indigenous population as the HIV/AIDS pandemic takes effect; a population poorly endowed with an entitlement to gain access to sufficient food and nutrition; a dependency on oil for energy resulting in an outflow of foreign exchange, expensive agriculture and agricultural crops changed into fuel crops and markets that allocates the limited resources, but not feeding the needy poor. Considering the above, the determinants of food security for South Africa were grouped under the following headings: - Entitlement - Demography - Agriculture - Energy - Climate change - Markets. Nobody who has money to pay for food is starving therefore, given the pervasiveness of malnutrition, the money made by merchants in the food trade does seem an affront to common notions of economic justice. The economic and political point is missed when merchants are blamed for conditions that promoted huge food imports and malnutrition. Merchants are not interested in famine but in commercial markets. These merchants thrive upon a system that excludes the hungry. Recent protectionist behaviour by food export countries and the structural shift in the demand of food require South Africa to evaluate its food security determinants. South Africa requires accurate policies to guide its food security efforts towards 2030.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / Towards the end of 2007, South Africa started experiencing widespread rolling electricity blackouts as the electricity demand exceeded the supply from energy giant Eskom. The crisis reached its tipping point when industries, including Sasol, were requested to reduce their electricity consumption by 10%. The purpose of this research was to identify alternative futures for Sasol in the light of the current electricity crisis. The scenario process was used to develop the following independent scenarios for Sasol: • Fuel to the fire. The country is amidst an ongoing nationwide electricity crisis and Sasol is still dependent on Eskom for more than 50% of its electricity demand. The end result is reduced turnover, shortage of liquid fuels and a decrease in Sasol’s contribution to the economy. • Ignorance is bliss. This is a world where Sasol is independent of Eskom for electricity supply despite the country’s continuing electricity crisis. Independence is ideal but unfortunately it comes at a cost. It is about taking painful action in the near term to forestall even more painful consequences in the future. • Blessing in disguise. Sasol is dependent on Eskom for the majority of its electricity requirement. The reliability of electricity supply in South Africa recovered and there is an overall awareness regarding energy efficiency and a positive adoption of alternative energy technologies. • Icing on the cake. Sasol is completely independent of Eskom and Eskom managed to restore the integrity of electricity supply. The end result, Sasol can continue with its planned growth and expansion. In order for the scenarios to be useful for Sasol, it is necessary to incorporate them into the strategic agenda. Some considerations include the gradual replacement of traditional fossil fuels, carbon capture and sequestration, advanced coal electricity generation (clean coal technology), increasing the use of renewable energy sources and developing the hydrogen economy.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / This research document seeks to outline the future of older people in HIV/AIDS-prevalent South Africa. The research report examined literature which assisted the researcher in understanding how older people‘s lives and standard of living has evolved due to HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The research report was focused on providing answers to the following questions: i) What are the factors that need to be addressed now to ensure a favourable future for older people in HIV/Aids prevalent South Africa? ii) What are the institutions responsible for ensuring a favourable future for older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa? The questions will be focused on 2040, from 2010 to 2040. In order to address the abovementioned questions the researcher made use of scenario planning supported by the biomatrix theory approach and causal layered analysis. Firstly, through input from the literature review and scenario team interviews, analysis of drivers of change was conducted. This reviewed secondary literature that was sourced from reports, case studies, publications and others. The focus of this paper was based on older people, HIV/AIDS and the future. Factors including change in family structure, care and respect for older people, government social grant, participation in policy formulation, education levels, employment and poverty were identified as driving forces that have an impact on older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa. Secondly, Biomatrix theory was used to map the problems associated with the driving forces mentioned above. This mapping was also used to prioritise the level of impact on problems associated with the driving forces. Two driving forces with the highest impact and uncertainties were identified as care and respect for older people as well as participation in policy formulation. A scenario quadrant was also mapped. The latter lead to four scenarios: The silver queen bee, the red queen bee, the black queen bee, and lastly the golden queen bee. Possible ideals and strategies were discussed as findings with a focus on the two key drivers of change that lead to the four alternative futures. Lastly, summary and recommendations are discussed in the final chapter.