Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / The opportunity identified is to develop further breadth and depth of inquiry in futures work by making explicit the use of questions throughout the process of futures work. The focus of this study is therefore process related rather than subject matter specific. Common sense suggests that all research methods apply questions and inquiry at some point in the process. The proposition put forward is that many research projects only imply questions and do not deliberately articulate the underlying inquiry process. This study therefore focuses on those methods that explicitly apply questions as a deliberate process or as a specific element in a process of futures work. The primary objectives are to identify the extent to which questions are used in existing futures work; to consider how other disciplines could inform the study; and to identify, adapt or create a framework of inquiry specifically for futures thinking, where the framework establishes explicit and deliberate use of questions in the inquiry process. The review of futures literature identified that questions are often used in a specific manner and it is notable the number of futures methods that use questions in a primary role. This becomes most evident in the paradigmatic and exploratory methods. The practitioners who stand out as strong proponents of questions are Inayatullah, Ulrich, Senge, Godet and Sardar. The study then focuses on thinking processes that have relevance to futures work, drawing from other disciplines including psychology, social psychology, philosophy and the social sciences. It explores the use of questions in individual thinking, conversation, collective thinking and learning processes. The process framework is a synthesis of ideas, combining futures thinking with these different perspectives. The concepts are used to generate a framework of futures thinking using positive questions with conversation; and these are the central ideas that distinguish the process. Using all the components concurrently and collectively reflects the systemic nature of futures projects. The preparation and appropriation components define context, identify meaning, create challenges and compel commitment. Positive energy is generated by focusing on positive intentions and positive questions. Individual thinking may be critical, reflective or creative; values, virtues and ethics act as standards for evaluating the wisdom of actions of the individual within a social context. The process is multi dimensional, operating simultaneously and sequentially, within and in conjunction with other methods. Learning is pursued as a collaborative endeavour through conversations that matter. The process framework aims at creating meaningful futures through active engagement in positive questioning and conversation with the aim of taking collective action that is both innovative and wise.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / This research study considers how executive education institutions should be training leaders for the future. The research outlines possible future challenges facing leaders in order to determine the type of training offered by executive education institutions. The study also looks into the current training practices of executive education institutions and explores the challenges currently faced by such institutions. This study discusses the role executive education institutions perform and how learning partnerships between executive education institutions and organisations can influence the role of executive education institutions. This research study has a specific focus on the training processes used by the University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB) Executive Development Ltd as an example of an executive education institution and offers some recommendations for consideration. These recommendations, amongst others, include the inability of off-the-shelf training programmes in not being able to always address the training needs of a company and that a thorough needs analysis should therefore always be done prior to the training; that executive education institutions should strive to be more flexible; that a more solid interdisciplinary research methodology focusing on business-related problems should be employed; that the importance of recognised accreditation should not be negated; and lastly, that anticipatory action learning should be included as part of the training process.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / Chronic diseases have been described as “the biggest public health threat society has ever faced” (World Economic Forum, 2010). The forecast from both the World Health Organization and the World Bank is that the morbidity and mortality rate of these diseases will impact severely on low and middle-income countries (WHO, 2005). The burden of disease in South Africa comprises both communicable and non-communicable burden maladies, including high rates of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). A high incidence of injury, peri-natal and maternal disorders also contributes to the health burden (Mayosi, Flisher, Lalloo, Sitas, Tollman & Bradshaw, 2009). The country is approaching a demographic transition with an accelerating ageing population. The factors contributing to the ageing of the population differ from those of the rest of the world (Haldenwang, 2009). The Western Cape Province is unique in its position as the province in South Africa with the highest life expectancy, a population change rate that is double the national average, and a higher than average older population (Provincial Government of the Western Cape, Department of Health. 2010. Strategic Plan 2010-2014). An extensive literature survey employing an integral environmental scanning approach was used to determine the impact of ageing on the burden of disease in the Western Cape. The connection between ageing, chronic disease and physical functionality was explored in a non-standardised questionnaire and in the literature survey. An evaluation of the Western Cape Department of Health Strategic Plan 2010-2014 found that non-communicable diseases and mental health issues that constitute about 28 per cent of the burden of disease (WHO, 2008) are not considered in future planning. This study shows that the Western Cape Province has limited time to prepare for the expanding and accelerating ageing population. The analysis of the questionnaire and the literature survey forms the foundation for the building of scenarios to visualise possible health futures in 2030 in the Western Cape. The desirable scenario is a balance between life expectancy and health expectancy.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to provide an overview of the South African financial mechanisms of protection available to people with disabilities, and to project possible future trends in providing these levels of cover. Alternative future scenarios that could pan out over the long-term are sketched to help understand the various external factors that could have an impact on disability risk protection in South Africa. The main classifications of the various benefits are split into social assistance and social insurance measures. The future landscape for each is explored by reviewing the associated social security and private insurance reforms currently envisaged. A key expected driver of private insurance reform is the introduction of a formal contributory system of social security in South Africa. The provision of disability cover in such a system is reviewed separately through proposals for a new mandatory system of retirement and risk benefit management in the country. Recommendations for a more coherent framework amongst the various mechanisms of disability protection and their designs are made. This is done within the context of the social model of disability that has developed in recent years. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie verslag gee ‘n oorsig van die Suid-Afrikaanse finansiële beskermings meganismes wat beskikbaar is vir mense met gestremdhede. Dit lig veral moontlike tendense vir die toekoms van sulke vorme van ongeskiktheids-dekking uit deur sekere vooruitskattings te maak. Daar is verskeie maniere waarop hierdie, en moontlik nuwe, meganismes kan ontwikkel met tyd. Dit is belangrik om te verstaan hoe sekere omgewingsfaktore ‘n rol speel in die bestuur van ongeskiktheids risiko’s. Die verslag klassifiseer die meganismes in twee kategorieë, staatstoelae en privaat versekerings-voordele. Ondersoek word ingestel na die toekomstige ontwikkeling van hierdie voordele deur huidige hervormings te oorweeg. Een van hierdie hervormings wat tot grootskaalse verandering kan lei is die inwerkingstelling van ’n nasionale pensionfonds waartoe alle Suid-Afrikaners verpligte bydraes sal maak. Die meriete van die verskaffing van ’n ongeskiktheidsvoordeel deur so ’n fonds word onder andere ondersoek. Voorstelle vir ‘n beter samehangende raamwerk waarbinne die reeks voordele verskaf kan word, word ook gemaak. Die algemene tendens vir ’n meer sosiale inslag in die ontleding van gestremdheid gee ’n bepaalde konteks aan die debat.

Dissertation (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Twenty-first century armed forces increasingly have to operate amidst unprecedented uncertainty and complexity cascading onto the military domain. Not only are their roles and implicitly their whole being now constantly questioned; the historic rationale for their existence is also under pressure. New and even unorthodox responsibilities find their way into and increasingly begin to eclipse and challenge traditional elements that configure the military sphere. Adjustments towards new futures thus become essential, as the images of warless futures and endisms about war remain merely that - images. Subsequently, notions about the adaptive military and armed forces being open ended systems sensitive to and capable of remaining in step with unfolding futures, become imperatives. In addition to learning from history, military futures now increasingly co-feature as the domain to master in the pursuit of appropriate future armed forces. Exploring the future through a recognised field of study allows for alternative futures to unfold that are bound to differ from an historic review and its linear continuance. This also serves as a tenable argument for military futures. Only by systematically peeling away the dogma that armed forces are instruments for war and little else, can the required changes to and future contributions of military establishments towards alternative military futures be exposed. Subsequently, military forces become entities capable of changing alongside their societies towards futures not predominantly shaped for and by war. To this end, the topic of alternative military futures offers insights into the utility of armed forces as a more contributing and constructive future policy instrument. In researching alternative military futures through contiguous debates concerning the futuresmilitary nexus, military change, the Revolution in Military Affairs, and the unfolding strategic environment, it emerges that military change towards new futures is a rather slow and incremental process. Furthermore, the Revolution in Military Affairs, in spite of its prominence, offers limited future options to the majority of governments aspiring to exploit new ways and means for engaging military futures. In turn, the future strategic environment premises strategic futures leaving armed forces little choice but to prepare for a horizontal threat spectrum of simultaneity and complexity, and a vertical dimension of a destructive-constructive merger. This matrix calls for expanded military means to meet complex futures characterised by simultaneity and variety through a response hierarchy comprising destructive and constructive ways and means. These are future challenges also faced by the defence decision-makers and military practitioners in South Africa. Alternative military futures for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) comprise some interface with the dynamics posited by theories on military change, contributions by the Revolution in Military Affairs and threat-response continuum posited by the future strategic environment. From this challenging premise alternative military futures embedded in the more constructive and preventative use of its military policy instrument towards Africa in particular, a South African defence paradigm is emerging for employing the South African National Defence Force in future. Renouncing the warfighting option to bring about change, accepting the volatile and complex African challenge and embracing democracy and multilaterism call for new defence thinking to probe the future. This search is bound to reveal the unfolding of alternative military futures that reach beyond the expectations of South African defence decision-makers and military practitioners from both the apartheid and struggle generations. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Militêre magte van die 21ste eeu opereer toenemend te midde van ongeëwenaarde onsekerheid en kompleksiteit wat op hul terrein van verantwoordelikheid aanspoel. Nie net die bydraes wat gewapende magte lewer nie, maar ook hul aard en wese word bevraagteken. Verskeie en selfs vreemde verantwoordelikhede kruip tans op die militêre verantwoordelikheidsgebied aan, wat weer die boustene van die militêre sfeer verwring of ondergrawe. Aanpassing om by toekomskwessies aan te pas raak dus noodsaaklik aangesien verwagtinge dat oorlog en die nut van militêre magte gaan verdwyn, 'n onderontwikkelde teorie verteenwoordig. Sieninge dat gewapende magte oop sisteme en aanpasbaar is met 'n sensitiwiteit vir wat in hul saamlewings plaasvind, asook dat hul in pas kan bly met hoe die toekoms ontvou, het noodsaaklike eienskappe geraak. Ter aanvulling van die historiese lesse, raak toekomsaspekte van die militêre domein nou kritiek vir die daarstelling van doelgeskikte en toekomsgerigte militêre magte. 'n Ondersoek van die toekomsveld deur van 'n erkende studieterrein gebruik te maak bevorder sieninge oor wat moontlik kan ontvou. Hierdie vooruitskouinge kan weer die historiese benadering en die linieêre voortsetting of projeksie daarvan aanvul. Hierdie onderlinge aanvulling is ook tersaaklik in die geval van die militêre toekomsomgewing. Slegs deur die dogma dat gewapende magte alleenlik geskik is vir die voer van oorloë en weinig anders, te weerlê, kan die veranderinge en bydraes van gewapende magte binne nuwe toekomsdimensies ondersoek en afgebaken word. Militêre magte kan dus voorgestel word as entiteite wat tog saam met hul gemeenskappe aanpas by veranderinge en die toekoms tegemoet kan gaan sonder dat laasgenoemde hoofsaaklik deur oorlog gevorm en onderlê word. Op hierdie wyse bied die onderwerp bekend as alternatiewe militêre toekomste meerdere insigte rakende die langer termyn nuttigheid van meer konstruktiewe gewapende magte. Die naspeur van toekomstige militêre aangeleenthede deur van die toekoms-militêre samehang, militêre verandering, die Rewolusie in Militêre Aangeleenthede, en die opkomende strategiese omgewing gebruik te maak, bied bepaalde insigte: die aanwesigheid van 'n samehang tussen toekomsstudies en die militêre faktor en dat die aard van militêre veranderinge as 'n inkrementele proses waarneembaar is. Ten spyte van die prominensie wat dit geniet, blyk dit dat die Rewolusie in Militêre Aangeleenthede beperkte opsies bied aan diegene wat beplan om die weg te volg om militêre aspekte van die toekoms tegemoet te gaan. Die toekomstige strategiese omgewing dui weer daarop dat gewapende magte min beweegruimte gegun word om vir tradisionele rolle voor te berei. 'n Horisontale spektrum van gelyktydigheid en kompleksiteit vorm saam met 'n vertikale destruktiewe-konstruktiewe kontinuum 'n matriks. Hierdie matriks vereis nou van weermagte die totstandbringing van uitgebreide militêre vermoëns en middele om kompleksiteit wat deur gelyktydigheid en verskeidenheid gekenmerk staan te word, die hoof te bied. Hierdie toekomstige kwessies word ook deur Suid-Afrikaanse besluitnemers en militêre bevelvoerders in die gesig gestaar. Toekomskwessies vir Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale Weermag (SANW) word vervat in dieselfde aspekte wat deur die aard van militêre veranderinge, die rol van die Rewolusie in Militêre Aangeleenthede en verwikkeldheid van die strategiese omgewing gereflekteer word. Gegewe hierdie uitdagende situasie, blyk dit dat alternatiewe vir die SANW neig om merendeels die konstruktiewe en voorkomende gebruik van die militêre beleidsinstrument te weerspieël. Hierdie neiging omvat dan ook 'n onteenseglike Afrika fokus met die gevolg dat die meer voorkomende en konstruktiewe gebruik van die land se weermag prominent in die opkomende Suid-Afrikaanse verdedigingsparadigma figureer. Deur die oorlogsopsie as 'n wyse om verandering te bewerkstellig af te keur, die onstabiele en komplekse Afrika-uitdaging te aanvaar en demokrasie en multilateralisme voor te staan, vereis nuwe verdedigingsdenke vir die toekoms. Vanuit hierdie vertrekpunt is dit waarkynlik dat militêre alternatiewe en toekomskwessies kan ontvou wat veel wyer strek as dit waarop besluitnemers vanuit beide die apartheids - sowel as struggle geledere reken.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to identify possible viable future healthcare models for South Africa, using the techniques and methodologies advocated in the field of future studies by futurists and erudite academics such as Ackoff, Drucker, De Jouvenel, Slaughter, Dostal and Roux. This topic necessitated a problem-orientated approach to future studies based on the complexities inherent thereto. A great deal of emphasis was therefore placed on the tools of rational analysis, which are supported by unregarded worldview assumptions about the ability of humans to regulate and control the world and therefore the framing of new laws, rules and regulations. The forward view was generated by using the appropriate methodologies such as environmental scanning and the analysis of trends and outcomes. Enrichment to the foresight work, beyond the respective models, was furthermore achieved by acknowledging the cultural and social-political arena wherein the current healthcare models in South Africa operate. The focused scan of salient and credible material and publications was extended to include research into healthcare outcomes achieved in countries with comparable economic and demographic profiles to South Africa. Supplementary research was also conducted into comprehensive aspects such as ethics and health economics in conjunction with recognised international healthcare models. The drivers of quality healthcare at primary and secondary healthcare levels and therefore also representing the constraining factors in the South African milieu being available healthcare practitioners, training, physical infrastructure, technology, access to facilities and the affordability of healthcare were explored to ensure the viability of the futures healthcare models contemplated. The identification of probable futures was accomplished by means of scenario development which focussed on the critical uncertainties of healthcare funding models and nationalisation as opposed to free market models competing for available resources in a semi-regulated environment. Thereafter Delphi techniques were used to acquire consensus from specialists currently working in the field of public and private healthcare along with stakeholders such as leaders of enterprise, healthcare funders and regulators as regards the identification of preferred future healthcare models that will meet, in a sustainable manner, the constitutional right to basic healthcare and enhance the quality of life and life expectancy of all South Africans. The relevance and credibility of the consensus opinions of the selected experts who participated in the research was again tested against the futures discourse publicised in the press to ensure that personal, cultural and organisational factors were not disregarded in the process. The study concluded on the fact that additional research and debate are required to ensure that the societal, organisational and individual aspects of the system wherein healthcare operates are comprehensively addressed by all relevant stakeholders in a manner that void of the neuroses caused by anxiety when thinking of the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van die studie was om moontlike volhoubare toekomstige gesondheidsorgmodelle vir Suid-Afrika te identifiseer deur gebruik te maak van tegnieke en metodologieë soos voorgehou deur deskundiges en hoogs belese akademici in die veld van toekomstudies, soos Ackoff, Drucker, De Jouvenel, Dostal en Roux. Die studie het, as gevolg van die kompleksiteit daarvan, ´n probleem-gerigte benadering tot toekomstudies verlang. Gevolglik is baie klem geplaas op rasionele analise-tegnieke, wat ondersteun word deur wêreldsiening-aannames aangaande die mens se vermoeë om die wêreld te reguleer en te beheer deur middel van nuwe wetgewing, reëls en regulasies. Die toekomsgerigte siening is gegenereer deur die gebruik van toepaslike metodologieë, soos byvoorbeeld omgewingskandering en die analise van tendense en uitkomste. Die toekomsgerigte werk is aangevul deur erkenning te gee aan die kulturele en sosio-politiese milieu waarbinne die huidige gesondheidsorgmodelle in Suid Afrika funksioneer. Die gefokusde skandering van kredietwaardige bronne en publikasies is uitgebrei ten einde navorsing oor gesondheidsorguitkomste, soos behaal in lande met vergelykbare ekonomiese en demografiese profiele, soos Suid Afrika, in te sluit. Aanvullende navorsing is verder onderneem en was gerig op omvattende aspekte soos etiek en gesondheidsekonomie, tesame met erkende internasionale gesordheidsorgmodelle. Die kernbepalers van kwaliteit-gesondheidsorg op primêre en sekondêre gesondheidsorgvlak, wat dus ook die beperkende faktore in die Suid-Afrikaanse milieu verteenwoordig, naamlik beskikbaarheid van mediese praktisyns, opleiding, fisiese infrastruktuur, tegnologie, toegang tot fasiliteite en die bekostigbaarheid van gesondheidsorg, is ondersoek ten einde die volhoubaarheid van die toekomsgesondheidsmodelle te verseker. Die identifiserings van waarskynlike toekomste is bereik deur scenario-ontwikkeling wat gefokus het op die kritiese onsekerhede van gesondheidsorgbefondsing en nationalisering, teenoor ´n vryemarkstelsel wat meeding om beskikbare hulpbronne in ´n deels-gereguleerde omgewing. Daarna is Delphi-metodieke gebruik om konsensus te verkry onder kenners wat tans in die veld van openbare en privaat gesondheidsorg werksaam is, asook belanghebbendes soos leiers in besighede, gesondheidsorgbefondsers en reguleerders, ten opsigte van voorkeur-toekomsgesondheidsorgmodelle wat op ´n volhoubare wyse die grondwetlike regte tot basiese gesondheidsorg en die verbetering van die kwaliteit van lewe en lewensverwagting van alle Suid-Afrikaners sal bevorder. Die toepaslikheid en geloofwaardigheid van die konsensusmenings van die gekose kenners wat deelgeneem het aan die navorsing is weer getoets teen toekomsgesprekke soos gepubliseer in die media ten einde te verseker dat persoonlike, kulturele en organisatoriese faktore nie in die proses misken is nie. Die studie het tot die slotsom gekom dat verdere navorsing en debat nodig is ten einde te verseker dat die sosiale, organisatoriese en individuele aspekte van die stelsel waarbinne gesondheidsorg funksioneer omvattend aangespreek word deur alle belanghebbendes, en op ´n wyse wat enige neurose wat tot angstigheid oor toekomsdenke kan lei, die hok slaan.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Now more than ever, organisations need to be resilient and sustainable. The world of business has changed irrevocably since the industrial age and organisational strategies have not adapted much in response to this environmental change. Are there new organisational strategies suited to this changed environment, with characteristics contributing to sustainable futures? The purpose of the paper is to highlight those principles and characteristics that could be linked to the creation of sustainable and resilient organisations. A brief review of the literature available on emergent organisational strategies and complex systems provides context to the paper. A number of specific organisational strategies are identified, while characteristics pointing to the sustainability of theses strategies in a complex environment are investigated. With the literature study a starting point, the paper then offers a detailed case study of an organisation which consciously uses a number of principles to support sustainable innovation. The principles and practices used by Kessels & Smit – The Learning Company, emerge as patterns from the data analysis. With these findings and the literature study as a foundation, a number of principles are proposed as recommendations for designing organisational strategies aimed at sustainable futures within organisations. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nou meer as ooit, is daar ‘n behoefte aan organisasies wat volhoubaar en soepel is. Sedert die industriele revolusie het die wereld van besigheid onherroeplik verander. Strategiee in organisasies het skaars tred gehou met die veranderinge in die omgewing. Is daar nuwe organisasie strategiee wat meer geskik is vir ‘n veranderde en komplekse omgewing, met karaktertrekke wat kan bydrae tot volhoubare toekoms vir organisasies? Die doel van hierdie verhandeling is om beginsels en karaktertrekke van organisatoriese strategiee, wat spesifiek in verband gebring kan word met die skepping van volhoubare organisasies, te identifiseer en ondersoek. 'n Kort oorsig van beskikbare literatuur aangaande komplekse sisteme en organisasie strategiee word gebruik om die vraag in konteks te plaas. Ondersoek word ingestel na 'n aantal spesifieke organisatoriese strategiee, met karaktertrekke wat aanduidings gee van volhoubaarheid in komplekse omgewings. Met die literatuurstudie as 'n begin punt, volg 'n in-diepte gevallestudie van 'n organisasie wat 'n aantal beginsels heel bewustelik gebruik om volhoubare verandering en innovasie te bevorder. Die beginsels en gebuike van Kessels & Smit - 'The Learning Company' word bespreek aan die hand van patrone in die data analise. Met hierdie bevindinge en die literatuur studie as 'n fondament, word 'n aantal beginsels vir die ontwerp van organisatoriese strategiee wat gemik is op volhoubare toekomste as aanbevelings voorgestel.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / One of the serious problems facing South Africa is that of the provision of adequate low-cost housing for its people. According to Statistics South Africa (2009), 56% of South Africans lived in fully-owned formal dwellings in 2009. Not only does it seem impossible to work away the backlogs, but problems with the standard of construction, location and continuing urbanisation adds to the challenge. International commitments such as the UN’s Millennium Goals put further pressure on government to permanently resolve the issue. Adequate housing is recognised globally as a basic human right. This includes access to running water and sanitation and a safe environment. This study does not aim to investigate, in any way, construction techniques, specific choices of location or other planning-related issues. However, it does try to find a more successful approach to the challenge of the provision of housing given the already stated challenges, combined with, amongst others, the provision of the necessary financing and relevant political processes. The provision of low-cost housing is a wicked problem. This means that it has certain characteristics, including being unique in character and can never be fully resolved. However, within futures studies, systems theory is recognised as one of the more successful ways to address wicked problems. By investigating low-cost housing programmes in Brazil, Argentina and Peru and identifying the elements of systems theory used, it was possible to find pointers to help formulate a set of steps (or actions) to use to address South Africa’s low-cost housing challenge. This research report proposes that, while the challenge of housing provision in a country like South Africa will most probably always be present, it can be alleviated by applying systems thinking to the problem.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report aims to show how futures studies or foresight techniques, especially causal layered analysis (CLA), can enrich the attempts of organisations to innovate. The study discusses the importance of innovation for organisations and shows that innovation is deeply rooted in the knowledge economy. The nature of innovation is explored as well as the different types and degrees of innovation. An integrated innovation model is proposed which is used to establish some of the key challenges which arise from the innovation process. The challenges are expanded to take into consideration those challenges which arise from the approach organisations take to innovation as well as some of the innovation challenges which arise from the underlying organisational culture. The nature of futures studies is discussed from the perspective of an approach and field of study for creating knowledge and facilitating understanding. This ability of futures studies is explored further to show how it can address some of the challenges which arise from innovation. The study further explores the ability of causal layered analysis, a foresight technique; not only to address some of the innovation challenges but to enrich the innovation process by providing depth and breadth in the analysis of the problem through creating an understanding of the deeply rooted drivers and viewing the problem from different perspectives, effectively expanding the solution set and creating a platform for identifying latent needs and opportunities. Causal layered analysis is applied to three of the top thirty innovations of the last three decades, testing the hypothesis that successful innovation transcends and addresses needs at the deeper layers. It is shown that innovations which are able to address needs in the deeper levels get embedded in our daily lives and as a result become more enduring. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsings projek beoog om te wys dat toekomsstudies en die tegnieke in die studie veld, spesifiek “causal layered analysis”, waarde kan toevoeg tot die innoverings probeerslae van organisasies. Die studie bespreek die belangrikheid van innovering vir organisasies en wys dat innovasie diep gewortel is in die kennis ekonomie. Die aard van innovering word ondersoek sowel as die verskillende tipes en grade daarvan. ‘n Ge-integreerde innoverings model word voorgestel en word gebruik om van die belangrike uitdagings in die innovasie proses te identifiseer. Daar word uitgebrei op hierdie uitdagings deur in ag te neem die benadering wat organisasies neem tot innovering asook die uitdagings wat voortspruit uit die onderliggende kultuur in die organisasie. Die aard van toekomstudies word bespreek uit die oogpunt van die benadering van die studie veld om kennis te skep en begrip te bewerkstellig. Die vermoë van toekomstudies om die uitdagings wat deur innovasie onstaan word verder ondersoek. Die studie ondersoek ook die vermoë van “causal layered analysis”, as ‘n toekoms tegniek, nie net om die innoverings uitdagings te adresseer nie, maar ook deur die verryking van die innoverings proses waardeur begrip geskep word. Begrip volg deur die diepte en wydheid van die analise van die probleem, asook deur die probleem vanuit verskeie oogpunte te benader. Hierdeur word daar meer moontlike oplossings blootgelê en word daar geleentheid geskep om nuwe geleenthede te identifiseer. “Causal layered analysis” word ook toegepas op drie van die top dertig innovasies van die laaste drie dekades om die hipotese te toets dat suksesvolle innovasies, behoeftes in al die lae aanspreek, spesifiek in die diepliggende areas. Die studie wys dat innovasies wat behoeftes in die diepliggende areas aanspreek deel word van ons alledaagse lewe en sodoende meer langdurig word.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / In many spheres of life, humanity is finally coming to terms with the fact that our world has changed beyond the limits of our industrial-era ways of thinking. Linear and reductionist approaches to strategy and problem-solving are no longer sufficient for dealing with the realities of our modern world, which are characterised by the certainty of change; not least of all due to technological change and environmental factors such as resource scarcity and global warming. Some of the changes that humanity has experienced include; • Uncertainty about the magnitude and direction of the changes; • Difficulty of visualising contexts and options in an increasingly complex environment, where many of the parts are interdependent, and where the knowledge requirements increasingly transcend traditional disciplines; • Serious and possibly irrevocable consequences of errors in decision-making; • The ability of humanity to adapt and respond to change. Living in sustainable harmony with itself and the biosphere requires that we use systems thinking to mediate between the need for action and the awareness of complexity. These aspects require that we adopt a continuous and adaptive mode of strategy and development, enabling us to shape a better future. As South Africa enters its sixteenth year of democracy, the challenges of unemployment, scarcity of critical skills, a poor education system, growing crime levels and perennial poverty, continue to confront both the state and civil society alike. This study seeks to map the South African government’s long-term and short-term planning frameworks that guide the planning processes and timeframes for all government departments. While the purpose is to determine the long-term planning methodologies and techniques of both Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), these are informed by the response to the national government planning frameworks, such as the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) and the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The National Planning Commission was established specifically to perform the long-term planning function of government. It is against this background that the researcher examines the long-term planning processes and methodologies of selected DFIs and SOEs, using the Environmental Scanning and Literature Review methodologies. Environmental scanning and literature review methodologies were used to gain a high-level understanding of the long-term planning processes of the national government. A literature review of current and previous long-term planning processes using scenario planning (by Eskom and the CSIR) and foresight (by the CSIR) have provided an indication that, although long-term planning is a desired goal, it is not widely practiced and where it is practiced the results and related impacts are not yet known. A survey of selected SOEs and DFIs was conducted to determine the nature and extent of long range planning undertaken by each of these bodies, as well as the methodologies that were used. The aim was to determine whether foresight tools such as systems thinking and/or scenario planning have been used in the past and what results have been achieved. Without this information, it would not be possible to identify the gaps that exist in the longterm planning frameworks of these entities. The results of the survey revealed that the concept of long-term planning using methodologies such as foresight, scenario planning and systems thinking does not enjoy wide awareness amongst the SOEs, who reported that they do not engage in long-term planning. The study concludes that a need exists for a formal well structured framework for the use of scenario planning and systems thinking as part of the foresight long-term planning methodology in South Africa’s state-owned enterprises. An ideal framework for the introduction and use of long-term planning methodologies is needed in order to seek an answer to the following question: what combination of thinking and planning tools, drawn from Foresight, Scenario Planning and systems thinking could be brought together to create and ideal framework for the introduction and use of long-term planning methodologies at state-owned-enterprises? The study proposes a Six Phase – Foresight and Scenario Planning Framework for longterm planning. This proposed new framework suggests the use of foresight tools such scenario planning and systems thinking. Exposure by the author to multiple foresight driven processes served to provide real life experiences of the potency of the use of these tools in combination during the different phases of the proposed framework. In using the proposed framework, executives at SOEs and DFIs should be able to cope with planning in an environment of uncertainty, while carrying the stakeholders along with them on the journey. The six phases of the process have, in the experience of the researcher, offered tangible benefits to a variety of institutions during the past three years. More than any other benefits, foresight loses its mystic and it becomes easy and accessible to everyone. Action planning, flowing from the foresight process becomes a genuine exercise that impacts on the short to medium term strategic planning taking into account the probable effects of emerging trends, driving forces and likely breakthroughs that leaders in SOEs and DFIs can bring about as they strive to create their preferred future.