Thesis (MScEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The evolution of the university’s role in national innovation systems has lately received increasing attention in international academic circles, with emphasis on its role in stimulating and sustaining national and regional economic growth. Universities in leading economies have adopted economic development as a third mission, along with the traditional objectives of teaching and research, directly leading to the inception of a technology transfer facilitator as an institutional unit. Translating this mission shift into the context of the Innovation Life Cycle, it seems that universities are involved in a larger part of the innovation process, rather than simply supplying inputs for the innovation funnel of industry. The subsequent need to gain maximum value from research has led innovation management practitioners to consider ways in which the innovation capability of universities can be improved. Several approaches have been documented to improve the performance of a university’s technology transfer office as an isolated entity. Most of these studies, however, have neglected to consider the technology transfer office in the context of the organisation-wide innovation process. The aim of this research is therefore to evaluate the innovation capability of a research institution to enable the improvement of their research commercialisation system. As a foundation the state of research commercialisation, innovation, and the relationship between the two are investigated. This process resulted in the validation that research commercialisation can be modelled by utilising an innovation model. The Innovation Capability Maturity Model version 2 (ICMMv2) of Essmann (1) is subsequently investigated with the aim of applying the model. This in turn leads to the application of the Innovation Capability Improvement Methodology accompanying the ICMMv2 in case study format on Stellenbosch University. The results obtained from the case study are presented in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the innovation capability of the University. The results were found to be an accurate description of the current issues in the commercialisation system at Stellenbosch University. The latter was validated by individuals tasked with the execution of the research commercialisation process at the University. This, in turn, validates the use of the Innovation Capability Maturity Model for the identification of any aspects that need improvement in order to streamline a university’s research commercialisation efforts. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die evolusie van die universiteit se rol in nasionale innovasie stelsels kry toenemend aandag in internasionale akademiese kringe. Dit beklemtoon universiteite se rol in die stimulering en handhawing van nasionale en plaaslike ekonomiese groei. Universiteite in voorste ekonomieë het ekonomiese ontwikkeling aangeneem as 'n derde missie, saam met die tradisionele missies van onderrig en navorsing. Dit het direk gelei tot die inlywing van ‘n tegnologie-oordrag fasiliteerder as 'n institusionele eenheid. Die verskuiwing van missie in die konteks van die Innovasie lewensiklus, dui daarop dat universiteite betrokke raak in 'n groter deel van die innovasie proses, eerder as om net die verskaffer van insette vir die innovasie tregter van die industrie te wees. Die daaropvolgende vereiste om maksimum waarde te verkry uit navorsing, het veroorsaak dat innovasie bestuur praktisyns verskeie maniere ondersoek waarop die innovasie vermoë van universiteite verbeter kan word. Verskeie benaderings om die prestasie van 'n universiteit se tegnologie-oordrag eenheid as 'n geïsoleerde entiteit te verbeter, is gedokumenteer. Die meeste van hierdie studies het egter nagelaat om die tegnologie-oordrag eenheid te oorweeg in die konteks van die organisasie-wye innovasie proses. Die doel van hierdie navorsing is dus om die innovasie vermoë van 'n navorsingsinrigting te evalueer om die verbetering van hul navorsing kommersialisering stelsel moontlik te maak. As 'n basis word die stand van navorsing kommersialisering, innovasie en die verhouding tussen die twee ondersoek. Hierdie proses het gelei tot die validasie dat navorsing kommersialisering gemodelleer kan word deur middel van 'n innovasie model. Daarna is die Innovation Capability Maturity Model weergawe 2 (ICMMv2) van Essmann(1) ondersoek om ten einde die model toe te pas. Dit word gevolg deur die uitvoering van die Innovation Capability Improvement metodologie, as deel van die ICMMv2, op die Universiteit van Stellenbosch, in ‘n gevallestudie-formaat. Die resultate wat verkry is uit die gevallestudie word in terme van sterk en swak punte met betrekking tot die innovasie vermoë van die Universiteit bespreek. Die resultate is bevind om 'n akkurate beskrywing van die huidige kwessies in die kommersialiseringstelsel by die Universiteit van Stellenbosch te wees. Dit is dan ook bevestig deur sekere individue gemoeid met die uitvoering van die navorsing kommersialiseringproses by die Universiteit. Dit op sy beurt, bekragtig die gebruik van die ICMMv2 vir die identifisering van die aspekte wat verbeter moet word om 'n universiteit se navorsing kommersialiseringpoging vaartbelyn te maak.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Telemedicine is a rapidly developing field in the medical sector that utilises modern day technology to provide improved health services to rural and remote areas. Telemedicine can also provide specialist support and remote consultation to facilities where there is a lack of resources. In South Africa, where a large percentage of the population live in rural and remote areas, telemedicine has the potential to alleviate the burden on national health resources, whilst improving the quality of healthcare. Various telemedicine projects have been piloted in South Africa from its inception in 1998, with the primary objective being to address the inequalities of healthcare delivery in South Africa. Most of these projects did not get past their initial pilot phase. It is often difficult to determine the factors that contribute to a telemedicine project’s success or demise, due to the unavailability of documentation for projects. The purpose of this research project is to contribute towards sustained implementation of telemedicine projects, by assisting the Medical Research Council (MRC) in their current efforts. This has been done through the development of an information management system which can record and store relevant information regarding telemedicine projects in South Africa. The system allows users to document telemedicine projects, whilst also giving them access to technical- and descriptive information. A total of 102 projects from the international academic domain were used to perform a meta-study, in order to determine the nature of telemedicine projects. Articles documenting various telemedicine projects were selected from the Journal of Telemedicine and Telecare. The telemedicine process data was then extracted and uploaded from these articles to the first version of the information system developed in this thesis. The meta-study was also used as the first phase of verification for the information system being developed. Changes were made to the information system after the meta-study was completed. These changes included alterations to the database and the interface of the information system. Additional tables were added to the database of the information system, to store the data required by the MRC, in order to document telemedicine projects in South Africa. The verification of the information system consisted of two testing phases. The first testing phase, the alpha test, was performed as part of the meta-study. The second testing phase was conducted after changes were incorporated into the information system, as necessitated by the alpha test and meta-study. In this phase of testing users could access the information system via the Internet. The information system was validated in two phases. Firstly it was shown that the information system met the objectives set out for this project. Secondly it was shown that the information system has the capacity to assist in planning, development, implementation, and research through retrospectively examining two telemedicine projects in which Dr. Sam Surka (senior scientist and clinical manager at the MRC) was involved. Outcomes of the project indicated that the information system is a useful tool for identifying similar telemedicine projects, and for assisting stakeholders in telemedicine projects. Finally the research process was reflected upon to identify future work in terms of collecting telemedicine process data, as well as the assistance of telemedicine research within the South African context / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Telemedisyne is 'n vinnig ontwikkelende veld in die mediese sektor wat gebruik maak van moderne tegnologie om verbeterde gesondheidsdienste te verskaf aan landelike en afgeleë gebiede. Telemedisyne kan ook spesialis-ondersteuning en afstandsraadgewing bied aan fasiliteite waar daar 'n gebrek aan hulpbronne is. In Suid-Afrika, waar 'n groot persentasie van die bevolking in landelike en afgeleë gebiede woon, het telemedisyne die potensiaal om die las te verlig op nasionale gesondheid hulpbronne, asook die gehalte van gesondheidsorg te verbeter. Verskeie telemedisyne projekte is in Suid-Afrika geloods vanaf 1998, met die primêre doel om die ongelykhede van gesondheidsorg in Suid-Afrika aan te spreek. Meeste van hierdie projekte het egter nie voortbestaan na hul aanvanklike proeffase nie. Dit is dikwels moeilik om die bydraende faktore te bepaal wat 'n telemedisyne projek se sukses of ondergang veroorsaak, as gevolg van die onbeskikbaarheid van dokumentasie vir die projekte. Die doel van hierdie navorsingsprojek is om ‘n bydrae te lewer tot die volhoubare implementering van telemedisyne projekte deur hulp te verleen aan die Mediese Navorsingsraad (MNR) se huidige ondernemings. Dit is gedoen deur 'n inligtingstelsel te ontwikkel wat relevante inligting opneem en stoor ten opsigte van telemedisyne projekte in Suid-Afrika. Die stelsel laat gebruikers toe om telemedisyne projekte te dokumenteer, asook toegang te bekom tot tegniese en beskrywende inligting. 'n Totaal van 102 projekte van die internasionale akademiese omgewing is gebruik om 'n meta-studie uit te voer ten einde die aard van telemedisyne projekte te bepaal. Artikels wat verskeie telemedisyne projekte dokumenteer is gekies uit die “Journal of Telemedicine and Telecare”. Die telemedisyne proses data is vanuit hierdie artikels onttrek en opgelaai na die eerste weergawe van die inligtingstelsel wat in hierdie tesis ontwikkel is. Die meta-studie is ook gebruik as die eerste fase van verifikasie vir die inligting stelsel wat ontwikkel word. Veranderinge was aangebring aan die inligtingstelsel na die meta-studie voltooi was. Hierdie veranderinge sluit in die uitbreiding van die databasis en die koppelvlak van die inligtingstelsel. Addisionele tabelle is bygevoeg tot die databasis van die inligtingstelsel om die addisionele data te stoor soos vereis deur die Mediese Navorsingsraad (MNR), ten einde die telemedisyne projekte in Suid-Afrika te dokumenteer. Die verifikasie van die inligtingstelsel bestaan uit twee toets fases. Die eerste toetsfase, die alfa toets, was uitgevoer as deel van die meta-studie. Die tweede toetsfase was uitgevoer na veranderinge aan die inligtingstelsel gemaak is, soos genoodsaak deur die alfa toets en meta-studie. In hierdie toetsfase kon gebruikers toegang tot die inligtingstelsel kry deur die Internet. Die inligtingstelsel was bekragtig in twee fases. Eerstens, dit is aangetoon dat die inligtingstelsel die doelwitte bereik het, soos uiteengesit vir hierdie projek. Tweedens was aangetoon dat die inligtingstelsel die vermoë het om te help met die beplanning, ontwikkeling, implementering, en navorsing deur twee telemedisyne projekte te ondersoek waarin Dr. Sam Surka (senior wetenskaplike en kliniese bestuurder by die MNR) betrokke was. Uitkomste van die projek het aangedui dat die inligtingstelsel 'n nuttige hulpmiddel is vir die identifisering van soortgelyke telemedisyne projekte, terwyl dit ook belanghebbendes van telemedisyne projekte ondersteun. Ten slotte was daar besin oor die navorsingsproses om toekomstige werk te identifiseer in terme van die versameling van telemedisyne proses data, asook die ondersteuning van telemedisyne navorsing binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Construction projects are risky by nature, with many variables a ecting their outcome. A contingency cost and duration are allocated to the budget and schedule of a project to provide for the possible impact of risks. To enable the management of project-related risk on a portfolio level, contingency estimation must be performed consistently and objectively. The current project contingency estimation method used in the capital program management department of Eskom Distribution Western Cape Operating Unit is not standardised, and is based solely on expert opinion. The aim of the study was to develop a contingency estimation tool to decrease the in uence of subjectivity on contingency estimation methods throughout the project lifecycle so as to enable consistent project risk re ection on a portfolio level. From a review of contingency estimation approaches in literature, a hybrid method combining neural network analysis of systemic risks and expected value analysis of project-speci c risks was chosen. Interviews were conducted with project managers (regarding network asset construction projects completed in the last two nancial years) to distinguish systemic and project-speci c risk impact on cost and duration growth. Outputs from 22 interviews provided three data patterns for each of 89 projects. After interview data processing, 138 training patterns pertaining to 85 projects remained for neural network training, validation and testing. Six possible neural network inputs (systemic risk drivers) were selected as project de nition level, cost, duration, business category, voltage category and job category. A multilayer feedforward neural network was trained using a supervised training approach combining a multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm with the standard backpropagation algorithm. Neural network results were evaluated for di erent scenarios considering possible combinations of model input variables and number of hidden nodes. The best scenario (exclusion of business category input with nine hidden nodes) was chosen based on training and validation errors. Validation error levels are comparable to those of similar studies in the project management eld. The chosen scenario was shown to outperform multiple linear regression, but calculated R2 values were lower than anticipated. It is expected that neural network performance will further improve as additional training patterns become available. The trained neural network was combined with an expected value analysis tool (risk register format) to estimate contingency due to systemic risks alongside an estimation of contingency due to project-speci c risks. The project-speci c expected value method was modi ed by basing the contingency estimation on the expected number of realised risks according to a binomial scenario. A total cost distribution was included in tool outputs by assuming the contingency cost equal to the standard deviation of the cost estimate. To aid business integration of the developed tool, study outputs included the points in the project lifecycle model at which the tool should be applied, and the process by which tool outputs become inputs to the enterprise risk management system. By following this approach, systemic and project-speci c risks are contained in a single tool providing contingency cost and duration output on project level, while enabling integration with reporting on program, portfolio and enterprise level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Konstruksieprojekte het van nature 'n ho e risiko omdat hulle uitsette deur baie veranderlikes gea ekteer word. Gebeurlikheidsreserwes vir koste en tyd word toegeken aan die begroting en skedule van 'n projek om voorsiening te maak vir die moontlike gevolge van risiko's. Om die bestuur van projekverwante risiko op 'n portefeulje-vlak te vergemaklik, moet die beraming van gebeurlikheidsreserwes op 'n konsekwente en objektiewe manier uitgevoer word. Die huidige beramingsmetode vir projek gebeurlikheidsreserwes in die kapitaal programbestuur departement van Eskom Distribusie Wes-Kaap Bedryfseenheid is nie gestandardiseer nie, en word slegs gebaseer op deskundige opinie. Die doel van hierdie studie was om 'n gebeurlikheidsreserwe beramingsinstrument te ontwikkel wat die invloed van subjektiwiteit op beramingsmetodes verminder deur die hele projeklewensiklus, en sodoende die konsekwente weerspie eling van projekrisiko op 'n portefeulje-vlak, te bewerkstellig. Vanuit 'n studie van bestaande literatuur oor gebeurlikheidsreserwe-beraming, is 'n hibriede metode wat neurale netwerk analise van sistemiese risiko's en verwagte waarde analise van projek-spesi eke risiko's kombineer, gekies. Onderhoude is gevoer met projekbestuurders (rakende netwerk batekonstruksieprojekte wat voltooi is in die afgelope twee nansi ele jare) om te onderskei tussen die impak van sistemiese en projek-spesi eke risiko's op koste- en duurgroei. Uitsette van 22 onderhoude het drie datapatrone vir elk van 89 projekte verskaf. Na onderhouddata verwerk is, het 138 datapatrone vanuit 85 projekte oorgebly vir neurale netwerk opleiding, validasie en toetsing. Ses moontlike neurale netwerk insette (sistemiese risikodrywers) is gekies as projek de nisievlak, koste, duur, besigheidskategorie, spanningskategorie en werkskategorie. 'n Multi-laag vooruitvoerende neurale netwerk is deur 'n opleidingonder- toesig benadering opgelei { 'n multi-doelwit gesimuleerde uitgloei ngsalgoritme gekombineer met die standaard agteruit-propagerende algoritme. Die resultate van die neurale netwerk is oorweeg vir verskillende scenario's rakende moontlike kombinasies van die aantal versteekte nodes en model insetveranderlikes. Die beste scenario (uitsluiting van besigheidskategorie inset met nege versteekte nodes) is gekies op grond van opleidings- en validasiefoute. Validasie foutvlakke is vergelykbaar met di e van soortgelyke studies in die projekbestuur veld. Daar is gewys dat die gekose scenario meervoudige line^ere regressie klop, maar met laer R2 waardes as wat verwag is. Dit word verwag dat die neurale netwerk beter sal presteer soos bykomende opleidingsdatapatrone beskikbaar word. Die opgeleide neurale netwerk is gekombineer met 'n verwagte waarde analise instrument (risiko-register formaat) om gebeurlikheidsreserwes as gevolg van sistemiese risiko's hand-aan-hand met gebeurlikheidsreserwes as gevolg van projekspesi eke risiko's, te beraam. Die projek-spesi eke verwagte waarde metode is aangepas deur gebeurlikheidsreserwe-beraming te baseer op die aantal verwagte gerealiseerde risiko's volgens 'n binomiaal scenario. 'n Totale koste-verdeling is ingesluit in modeluitsette deur aan te neem dat die gebeurlikheidsreserwe vir koste gelyk is aan die standaardafwyking van die kosteberaming. Om die besigheidsintegrasie van die ontwikkelde instrument te vergemaklik, het studie uitsette die punte in die projek lewensiklus waarby die instrument toegepas moet word, en die proses waardeur instrument uitsette omgesit word na insette vir die risikobestuur sisteem op ondernemingsvlak, ingesluit. Deur hierdie benadering te volg, word sistemiese en projek-spesi eke risiko's omvat in een instrument wat gebeurlikheidsreserwes vir koste en tyd op projekvlak verskaf. Die integrasie met verslagdoening op program-, portefeulje- en ondernemingsvlak word ook bewerkstellig.

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is very seldom that a decision-making problem concerns only a single value or objective. The process of simultaneously optimising two or more con icting objectives is known as multi-objective optimisation (MOO). A number of metaheuristics have been successfully adapted for MOO. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of applying an agent-based modelling approach to MOO. The (s; S) inventory problem was chosen as the application eld for this approach and Anylogic used as model platform. Agents in the model were responsible for inventory and sales management, and had to negotiate with each other in order to nd optimal reorder strategies. The introduction of concepts such as agent satisfaction indexes, aggression factors, and recollection ability guided the negotiation process between the agents. The results revealed that the agents had the ability to nd good strategies. The Pareto front generated from their proposed strategies was a good approximation to the known front. The approach was also successfully applied to a recognised MOO test problem proving that it has the potential to solve a variety of MOO problems. Future research could focus on further developing this approach for more practical applications such as complex supply chain systems, nancial models, risk analysis and economics. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar is weinig besluitnemingsprobleme waar slegs 'n enkele waarde of doelwit ter sprake is. Die proses waar twee of meer doelwitte, wat in konflik staan met mekaar, gelyktydig optimiseer word, staan bekend as multi-doelwit optimisering (MOO). 'n Aantal metaheuristieke is al suksesvol aangepas vir MOO. Die doelwit van hierdie studie was om ondersoek in te stel na die lewensvatbaarheid van die toepassing van 'n agent gebasseerde modelerings benadering tot MOO. As toepassingsveld vir hierdie benadering was die (s; S) voorraad probleem gekies en Anylogic was gebruik as model platform. In die model was agente verantwoordelik vir voorraad- en verkope bestuur. Hulle moes onderling met mekaar onderhandel om die optimale bestelling strategiee te verkry. Konsepte soos agentbevrediging, aggressie faktore en herinneringsvermoens is ingestel om die onderhandeling tussen die agente te bewerkstellig. Die resultate het gewys dat die agente oor die vermoe beskik om met goeie strategiee vorendag te kom. Die Pareto fronte wat gegenereer is deur hul voorgestelde strategiee was 'n goeie benadering tot die bekende front. Die benadering was ook suksesvol toegepas op 'n erkende MOO toets-probleem wat bewys het dat dit oor die potensiaal beskik om 'n verskeidenheid van MOO probleme op te los. Toekomstige navorsing kan daarop fokus om hierdie benadering verder te ontwikkel vir meer praktiese toepassings soos komplekse voorsieningskettingstelsels, finnansiele modelle, risiko-analises en ekonomie.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the implementation of an integrated capital budgeting visual mapping framework comprised of both Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) techniques. Physical asset investment decisions are based largely on rigid discounted cash flow tools which provide untimely and incomplete decisional criteria. While literature outlines the wide spread use of traditional DCF techniques, it very openly reveals large limitations, including its static inflexibility and slow to evolve framework. ROA is a more recent valuation tool based on stock option theory. It brings into account added value found in the flexibility of managerial decision making and uncertain conditions. This study implements a combined DCF and ROA capital budgeting tool within a Physical Asset Management (PAM) environment. The validity of the framework is realised through an industry relevant case study presented by a South African mining company. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis ondersoek die toepassing van ’n geïntegreerde visuele kapitaalbegrotingafbeeldingsraamwerk wat uit verdiskonteerde kontantvloei en reële opsie–analise bestaan. Fisiese batebeleggingsbesluite is dikwels gebaseer op rigiede kapitaalbegrotingstegnieke wat onvolledige besluitnemingsmaatstawwe aanbied. Terwyl literatuur die wydverspreide uiteensetting van verdiskonteerde kontantvloei openbaar, is daar nog steeds baie beperkings, soos die onbuigsaamheid en die stadige ontwikkelingstempo van verdiskonteerde kontantvloei– analise. Reële opsie–analise is ’n meer onlangse waardasiemetode wat op aandelemarkfinansies gebaseer is. Reële opsies word addisionele waarde bygevoeg deur die onsekerheid en buigsaamheid van fisiese batebeleggings. Hierde tesis implimenteer ’n gekombineerde verdiskonteerde kontantvloei en reële–opsie kapitaalbegrotingmetode binne ’n fisiese batebestuur omgewing. Die geldigheid van die gekombineerde metode is getoets met behulp van ’n gevallstudie beskikbaar gestel deur ’n Suid Afrikaanse myn.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project management (PM) is a very important field in engineering as a whole. The management of most projects has become more complex in recent times, due to greater technical complexity and the requirement of diversified skills. The management of risks is a very important process to improve the performance of a project. This is due to the link between project risks and objectives. However, this aspect of PM becomes increasingly more difficult to manage with increasing project complexity. For these reasons a need exists for more efficient PM methods. This thesis had three objectives. The first was to understand the processes and principles of PM, systems engineering (SE) and risk management. This was achieved by doing a literature study on the three fields. The second objective was to identify areas of greater risk within the management of projects. The final objective was to develop an effective generic model that illustrates the integration of SE principles into PM, with the goal to reduce the identified risks. Five risks were identified during this research. They were considered to be the most important in project management. This was accomplished by means of a questionnaire that was sent out to experts in the industry. It was established from this investigation that the following five risks, in order of importance, pose the biggest threat to the success of a project: 1. Poorly defined requirements; 2. Poor communication; 3. Poor risk management; 4. Lack of customer involvement; and 5. Inaccurate estimates. These risks were addressed by integrating the principles of SE into PM. SE is an iterative process that needs a diverse set of people, with a variety of skills, to achieve customer requirements. Various SE approaches and strategies were developed throughout the years. They were investigated to obtain insight into which of them can be used to improve PM. The top-down iterative development principles of SE offer a great advantage, and therefore it was appropriate to integrate these principles into PM. A model was developed as part of this thesis to illustrate the integration of SE principles into PM, and the importance of risk management. The model was named “Project Management Integrated with Systems Engineering Principles Model”. This tool can be used by engineers and their project teams to enhance the management of projects. It is also a generic tool that can be used for any project. The final step of this research was the validation of the model. This was done by means of expert evaluation. The purpose of this validation was to test whether the objectives of the research were met, and if the model was valid in the sense of ease of use and usefulness. The final objective of the validation process was to determine if the integration of systems engineering (SE) principles into project management (PM) were successful, and if it will reduce risks in large scale projects. It was concluded from this evaluation that its objectives were met and that the model successfully demonstrated the integration of SE into PM to reduce risks in large scale projects. Several recommendations were made that may enhance this study. They main recommendations are: 1. Researching the impact of communication on projects, by using case studies. 2. SE principles are mainly used in the first two phases of the model. Further investigation of using SE principles in phase three may be researched. 3. Customer involvement may be used during changes in the project. For this reason it is recommended that future studies may include investigation of the impact the customer has on project changes and the change management process. 4. The model could be tested in the industry on an active project. This will greatly improve the validity of the model. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Projekbestuur is ‘n baie belangrike veld in ingenieurswese as geheel. As gevolg van die toenemende tegniese kompleksiteit en die vereiste van verskillende vaardighede, het die bestuur van meeste projekte meer gekompliseerd geraak met tyd. Die bestuur van risiko’s is ‘n baie belangrike proses om die uitvoering van ‘n projek te verbeter. Hierdie aspek van projekbestuur het egter al hoe moeiliker geword om te bestuur. Dus hiervoor bestaan daar ‘n behoefte vir meer doeltreffende projekbestuur metodes. Hierdie tesis het drie doelwitte gehad. Die eerste doelwit was om die prosesse en beginsels van projekbestuur, stelsels ingenieurswese en risikobestuur te verstaan. Dit was bevredig deur ‘n literatuur studie wat gedoen is in die drie velde. Die tweede doelwit was gestel om die areas van groter risiko binne die bestuur van projekte te identifiseer. Die finale doelwit was die ontwilkkeling van ‘n effektiewe generiese model wat die integrasie van stelsels ingenieurswese beginsels binne projekbestuur demonstreer, met die doel om die geïdentifiseerde risiko’s te verminder. Vyf risiko’s, wat as die mees belangrikste in projekbestuur beskou word, was geïdentifiseer. Hierdie risiko’s was deur middel van ‘n vraelys, wat aan deskundiges in die industrie gestuur was, geïdentifiseer. Die risiko’s, gelys in volgorde van belangrikheid, was: 1. Swak bepaalde vereistes; 2. Swak kommunikasie; 3. Swak risiko bestuur; 4. Onnoukeurige skattings; en 5. Geen kliënt betrokkenheid. Vervolgens was hierdie risiko’s deur die integrasie van stelsels ingenieurswese beginsels in projekbestuur toegespreek. Stelsels ingenieurswese is ‘n herhalingsproses wat die kliënt se vereistes bevredig, deur gebruik te maak van ‘n diverse groep mense met ‘n verskeidenheid van vaardighede. Verskeie stelsels ingenieurswese benaderings en strategië is deur die jare ontwikkel. Hierdie benaderings en strategië was geondersoek om vas te stel watter van hulle toegepas kan word om projekbestuur te verbeter. Die “top-down” herhalende ontwikkeling beginsels van stelsels ingenieurswese bied ‘n groot voordeel, en dit was om hierdie rede toepaslik om dié beginsels in projekbestuur te integreer. ‘n Model was ontwikkel as deel van die navorsing om die integrasie van stelsels ingenieurswese beginsels binne projekbestuur te illustreer, asook die belangrikheid van risikobestuur. Die model is genoem “Project Management Integrated with Systems Engineering Principles Model”. Hierdie model kan deur ingenieurs en hul projekspanne gebruik word om die bestuur van projekte te versterk. Die finale stap van die navorsing was die evaluasie van die model. Dit was gedoen deur middel van deskundige evaluasie. Die validasie proses het twee doelwitte gehad. Die eerste doel was om te bepaal of die doelwitte van die ondersoek bereik was, asook om vas te stel of die model geldig was in die sin van gemak van gebruik en bruikbaarheid. Die tweede doel van die validasie proses was om te bepaal of die model suksesvol die integrasie van stelsels ingenieurswese binne projekbestuur gedemonstreer het, en of hierdie integrasie risiko’s in groot skaalse projekte sal verminder. Dit was afgelei van die evaluasie dat die model wel suksesvol die integrasie van stelsels ingenieurswese binne projekbestuur demonstreer om risiko’s in grootskaalse projekte te verminder. Verskeie aanbevelings was gemaak wat hierdie navorsing kan versterk in waarde. Die hoof aanbevelings was: 1. Die impak wat kommunikasie op projekte het kan geondersoek word deur middel van gevallestudies. 2. Stelsels ingenieurswese beginsels is hoofsaaklik gedurende die eerste twee fases van die model gebruik. Die gebruik van stelsels ingenieurswese beginsels in fase drie kan verder ondersoek word. 3. Kliënt betrokkenheid gedurende veranderinge in ‘n projek kan gebruik word. Om hierdie rede word dit aanbeveel dat verdere studies die kliënt se impak op projek veranderings en verandering in bestuursproses ondersoek word. 4. Die model kan getoets word in die industrie op ‘n aktiewe projek. Dit sal die geldigheid van die model grootliks verbeter.

Thesis (MEng)-- Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Asset Management initiatives suffer many barriers in implementation which hinder their influence and sustainability. One of these barriers is the lack of buy-in from all levels in the organisation, due to a lack of understanding of the perceived benefits of Asset Management. The relationship between throughput and the maturity of Asset Management implementation is usually felt throughout the organisation, but is difficult to prove or quantify. Furthermore, it is di cult to isolate the effects of maintenance using traditional methods. Organisational alignment in an Asset Management project is achieved by aligning employees' views on what the deficient areas in the organisation are, and managing their expectations in what the perceived benefit of a good application of Asset Management would bring forth. However, the lack of a transparent method to convey the significance of critical areas in the system, and a clear way to communicate these problems creates a barrier in implementation. Without empirical evidence people rely on argumentative opinions to uncover problems, which tends to create friction as opinions from various factions may differ. Typically, these initiatives are constrained by available resources, and the allocation of resources to the correct areas is thus vital. In order for Asset Management initiatives to be successful there first needs to be alignment in execution through a clear understanding of which assets are critical, so that resources can be allocated effectively. In this study, this problem is thoroughly examined and solutions are sought in literature. A method is sought which seeks to isolate the effects of the maintenance function in an operation and uncover critical areas. A study is performed on methods which are typically used to create such understanding, which are shown to have shortcomings that limit their applicability. Thus a new methodology utilising simulation is created in order to overcome these problems. The methodology is validated through a case study, where it is shown that the simulation, in the context of the methodology, is highly beneficial to uncovering critical areas and achieving organisational alignment through communication of results. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Fisiese bate bestuursinitiatiewe het verskeie tekortkominge in hulle implementering wat hulle invloed en volhoubaarheid verhinder. Een van hierdie hindernisse is die tekort aan ondersteuning van alle vlakke in die organisasie, wat as gevolg van 'n gebrek aan begrip van die voordele van bate bestuur voorkom. Die verhouding tussen die volwassenheid van batebestuur en produksie deurset word gewoonlik reg deur die organisasie gevoel, maar hierdie verhouding is moeilik om te bewys of te kwantifiseer. Verder is dit moeilik om met huidige methodes die gevolge van instandhouding te isoleer, en dus deeglik te begryp. Organisatoriese aanpassing by `n bate bestuursprojek word bereik deur werknemers se siening te belyn oor wat die gebrekkige areas is, en om hulle verwagtinge te bestuur oor die voordele wat `n goeie bate bestuursprojek kan voortbring. Daar is `n gebrek aan metodes om in `n deursigtige wyse die kritieke areas aan te dui en te komunikeer aan werknemers. Dit skep `n hindernis in die uitvoer van projekte en, in die afwesigheid van empiriese bewyse van probleme, is werknemers afhanklik van argumentatiewe menings om probleme te ontbloot, en die menings van verskeie rolspelers kan verskil. Enige inisiatiewe is tipies beperk deur die beskikbaarheid van hulpbronne daarvoor, en `n effektiewe toedeling van beskikbare hulpbronne is dus noodsaaklik. Om `n suksesvolle batebestuursprojek uit te voer, moet daar eers `n duidelike begrip en ooreenstemming wees oor wat die verskeie kritieke areas is wat die meeste aandag verlang, sodat hulpbronne doeltreffend toegeken kan word. In die studie word hierdie probleem deeglik ondersoek deur oplossings na te vors in die literatuur. `n Metode is gesoek wat daarop gemik is om die gevolge van instandhouding te isoleer in `n produksiestelsel en kritiese areas te ontbloot. `n Studie is uitgevoer op metodes wat gewoonlik gebruik word om sodanige analises uit te voer, en dit word gewys dat huidige metodes terkortkominge het wat hulle toepaslikheid beperk. Dus is `n nuwe metode geskep wat gebruik maak van simulasie om hierdie probleme te oorkom. Die metode is gevalideer deur om `n gevallestudie uit te voer, waar dit bevestig is dat die metode voordelig is om op `n deursigtige wyse kritiese areas te ontbloot en om organisatoriese belyning te bewerkstellig deur effektiewe kommunikasie van die resultate.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) are stochastic techniques, based on the idea of biological evolution, for finding near-optimal solutions to optimisation problems. Due to their generality and computational speed, they have been applied very successfully in a wide range of disciplines. However, as a consequence of their stochasticity and generality, very little has been rigorously established about their performance. Developing models for explaining and predicting algorithmic performance is, in fact, one of the most important challenges facing the field of optimisation. A qualitative version of such a model of EAs is developed in this thesis. There are two paradigms for explaining why EAs are expected to converge toward an optimum. The traditional explanation is that of Universal Darwinism, but an alternative explanation is that they are hill climbing algorithms which utilise all possible escape strategies — restarting local search, stochastic search and acceptance of non-improving solutions. The combination of the hill climbing property and the above escape strategies leads to a fast algorithm that is able to avoid premature convergence. Due to the difficulty in mathematically or empirically explaining the performance of EAs, terms such as exploitation, exploration, intensity and diversity are routinely employed for this purpose. Six prevalent views on exploitation and exploration are identified in the literature, each expressing a different facet of these notions. The coherence of these views is substantiated by their deducibility from the proposed novel definitions of exploitation and exploration. This substantiation is based on a novel hypothetical construct, namely that of a Probable Fitness Landscape (PFL), which both unifies and clarifies the surrounding terminology and our understanding of the performance of EAs. The PFL is developed into a qualitative model of EAs by extending it to the notion of an Ideal Probability Distribution (IPD). This notion, along with the criteria of diversity and computational speed, forms a method for judging the performance of EA operators. It is used to explain why the principal operators of EAs, namely mutation and selection, are effective. There are three main types of EAs, namely Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Evolution Strategies and Evolutionary Programming, each of which employ their own unique operators. Important facets of the crossover operator (which is particular to GAs) are identified, such as: opposite step vectors, genetic drift and ellipsoidal parent-centred probability distributions with variance proportional to the distance between parents. The shape of the crossover probability distribution motivates a comparison with a novel continuous approximation of mutation, which reveals very similar underlying distributions, although for crossover the distribution is adaptive whereas for mutation it is fixed. The PFL and IPD are used to analyse the crossover operator, the results of which are contrasted with the traditional explanations of the Schema Theorem and Building Block Hypothesis as well as the Evolutionary Progress Principle and Genetic Repair Hypothesis. It emerges that the facetwise nature of the PFL extracts more sound conclusions than the other explanations which, falsely, attempt to prove GAs to be superior. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Evolusionere Algoritmes (EAs) is stogastiese tegnieke vir die bepaling van naby-optimale oplossings vir optimeringsprobleme wat gebaseer is op die beginsel van biologiese evolusie. As gevolg van hul algemene toepasbaarheid en hoe berekeningspoed, is hierdie algoritmes al met groot sukses in ’n wye verskeidenheid dissiplines toegepas. Die stogastiese aard en algemene toepasbaarheid van hierdie klas van algoritmes het egter tot gevolg dat baie min al oor hul werkverrigting formeel bewys is. Die ontwikkeling van modelle waarmee die doeltreffendheid van algoritmes verklaar en voorspel kan word, is trouens een van die grootste uitdagings in die studieveld van optimering. ’n Kwalitatiewe weergawe van so ’n model word in hierdie verhandeling vir EAs daargestel. Daar bestaan twee paradigmas vir die verklaring van waarom daar van EAs verwag word om na ’n optimum te konvergeer. Die tradisionele verklaring geskied aan die hand van Universele Darwinisme, maar ’n alternatiewe verklaring is dat hierdie algoritmes bergtop-soekend is en van alle moontlike ontsnapstrategiee gebruik maak — lokale soekstrategiee, stogastiese soekstrategiee en die aanvaarding van minderwaardige oplossings. Die kombinasie van die bergtop-soekende eienskap en die insluiting van die bogenoemde ontsnapstrategiee gee aanleiding tot vinnige algoritmes wat daartoe in staat is om voortydige konvergensie te vermy. Omdat dit moeilik is om die werkverrigting van EAs wiskundig of empiries te verklaar, word terminologie soos uitbuiting, verkenning, intensiteit en diversiteit roetinegewys vir hierdie doel ingespan. Ses heersende menings in die literatuur oor uitbuiting en verkenning word ge¨ıdentifiseer wat elkeen ’n ander faset van hierdie begrippe uitlig. Die samehang van hierdie menings word deur hul afleibaarheid uit nuwe definisies van uitbuiting en verkenning gedemonstreer. Hierdie demonstrasie is gebaseer op ’n nuwe hipotetiese konstruk, naamlik die van ’n Waarskynlike Fiksheidslandskap (WFL), wat beide die omliggende terminologie¨e en ons begrip van die werking van EAs enersyds verenig en andersyds verduidelik. Die begrip van ’n WFL word tot ’n kwantitatiewe model vir EAs ontwikkel deur dit tot die konstruk van ’n Ideale Waarskynlikheidsverdeling (IWV) uit te brei. Hierdie konsep word saam met die kriteria van diversiteit en berekeningspoed gebruik om ’n metode te ontwikkel waarmee die werkverrigting van EAs beoordeel kan word. Die IWV word gebruik om te verklaar waarom die hoofoperatore van EAs, naamlik mutasie en seleksie, doeltreffend is. Daar is drie tipes van EAs, naamlik Genetiese Algoritmes (GAs), Evolusionere Strategiee en Evolusionere Programmering, wat elk hul eie, unieke operatore bevat. Belangrike fasette van die oorgangsoperator (wat eie is aan GAs) word uitgelig, soos regoorstaande trapvektore, genetiese neiging en ellipsoıdale ouer-gesentreerde waarskynlikheidsverdelings met variansies wat eweredig is aan die afstand tussen ouers. Die vorm van die oorgangs-waarskynlikheidsverdeling gee aanleiding tot ’n vergelyking tussen die begrip van oorgang en ’n nuwe, kontinue benadering van mutasie. Daar word gevind dat die onderliggende verdelings baie soortgelyk is, alhoewel die oorgangsverdeling aanpasbaar is, terwyl die verdeling vir mutasie vas is. Die WFL en IWV word gebruik om die oorgangsoperator te analiseer en die resultate van hierdie analise word teenoor die tradisionele verklarings van die Skemastelling en Boublok-hipotese sowel as die Evolusionere Vooruitgangsbeginsel en die Genetiese Herstel-hipotese gekontrasteer. Dit blyk dat meer grondige gevolgtrekkings gemaak kan word uit die fasetgewyse aard van die WFL as uit ander verklarings wat valslik poog om die meer doeltreffende werkverrigting van GAs te demonstreer. Die gebruik van faset-gewyse en kwalitatiewe modelle word geregverdig deur hul sukses in terme van die verklaring van EA werkverrigting. Die argument word gemaak dat die beste rigting vir voortgesette navorsing oor EAs is om weg te bly van vergelykende studies en die afleiding van sogenaamde vergelykings van beweging, maar om eerder die ontwikkeling van wetenskaplikgefundeerde, faset-gewyse modelle vir algoritmiese werkverrigting na te streef.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The cross-entropy method for multi-objective optimisation (MOO CEM) was recently introduced by Bekker & Aldrich (2010) and Bekker (2012). Results presented by both show great promise. The MOO CEM assumes that decision variables are independent. As a consequence, the question arises: under which circumstances would an algorithm that accounts for relationships between decision variables outperform the MOO CEM? Two algorithms reported to account for relationships between decision variables, the multi-objective covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (MOCMA- ES) and Pareto di erential evolution (PDE), are selected for comparison. In addition, two hybrid algorithms (Hybrid 1 and Hybrid 2) based on the MOO CEM are created. These ve algorithms are applied to a set of 46 continuous problems, six instances of the mission-ready resource (MRR) problem, and three instances of a dynamic, stochastic bu er allocation problem (BAP). Performance is measured using the hypervolume indicator and Mann-Whitney U-tests. One of the primary ndings is that accounting for relationships between decision variables is bene cial when solving small to medium-sized problems. In these cases, the MO-CMA-ES typically outperforms the other algorithms. However, on large problems, Hybrid 1 and the MOO CEM typically perform best. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die kruis-entropie metode vir meerdoelige optimering (MOO CEM) is onlangs deur Bekker & Aldrich (2010) en Bekker (2012) bekendgestel. Hul resultate is belowend. Die MOO CEM neem aan dat besluitnemingsveranderlikes onafhanklik is van mekaar. Gevolglik ontstaan die vraag: onder watter omstandighede sal 'n optimeringsalgoritme wat moontlike verhoudings tussen besluitnemingsveranderlikes in ag neem, beter vaar as die MOO CEM? Twee bestaande algoritmes, beide gerapporteer vir hul vermo e om moontlike verhoudings tussen besluitnemingsveranderlikes in ag te neem, naamlik die meerdoelige optimering kovariansiematriksaanpassing-evolusiestrategie (MO-CMA-ES) en Pareto afgeleide evolusie (PDE), word met die MOO CEM vergelyk. Twee nuwe hibriedalgoritmes (Hibried 1 en Hibried 2) word ook ter wille van di e vergelyking geskep. Die vyf algoritmes word op 'n stel van 46 kontinue probleme, ses statiese kombinatoriese gevalle en drie dinamies, stogastiese gevalle toegepas. Die prestasie van die algoritmes word deur middel van die hipervolume-aanwyser en Mann-Whitney U-toetse gemeet. 'n Prim^ere bevinding is dat dit voordelig is om moontlike verhoudings tussen besluitnemingsveranderlikes in ag te neem wanneer klein na medium-grootte probleme opgelos word. Vir hierdie gevalle presteer die MO-CMA-ES tipies beter as die ander algoritmes. Vir groot probleme presteer Hibried 1 en die MOO CEM beter as die ander algoritmes. / National Research Foundation

Thesis (PhD (Industrial Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Innovation is important for competitiveness. It thrives on the availability of novel public and private domain knowledge. Thus the ability to access, analyze, synthesize, share, and re-use knowledge is paramount to enabling innovation within the different partners of the supply chain. These activities grow the available pool of knowledge. It also facilitates learning from mistakes, as well as capturing and enhancing opportunities for future innovation. Proactively networking resources within a formal and informal structure improve the ability of any participating enterprise to use/re-use knowledge, in a concurrently growing knowledge base. Such a "Knowledge Network” (KN) enhances knowledge sharing between and among individuals, groups and organizations in informal and formal ways. This network is also scalable in the sense that more individuals and enterprise may join the network as success cases are reported on. It is clear that knowing how to design, deploy and operate a Knowledge Network could be highly beneficial. How to successfully design and deploy a KN is a challenge and has been widely researched to a limited extent within in the past decade. The design, deploy and operate functions require understanding of social processes and how people learn and share knowledge. KN management requires a proactive, systematic approach to the planning and deployment of a formalized network for knowledge creation and transfer. It addresses promoting and improving conditions to cultivate informal and formal networking within a larger collaborative network of enterprises. This dissertation presents a refined methodology for initiating, deploying, managing and operating an Innovation Project based on the available research reported in this domain. It incorporates concepts of generic, partial and specific roadmaps, best practices, templates and examples and allows individual teams to capture knowledge about specific projects and expertise in context for later re-use. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Om mededingend te kan wees, is innovasie belangrik. Laasgenoemde floreer op die beskikbaarheid van nuwe publieke, sowel as private domein kennis. Dus is die kundigheid om kennis te assesseer, te analiseer, saam te vat, uit te ruil met ander en dan weer te gebruik van die uiterste belang om innovasie moontlik te maak vir die onderskeie vennote in die voorsieningsketting. Hierdie genoemde aktiwiteite vergroot die beskikbare poel van kennis. Daarbenewens fasiliteer dit ook leer uit foute, sowel as die vasvang en versterking van geleenthede vir toekomstige innovasie. Deur pro-aktief en vindingryk van netwerk bronne gebruik te maak, binne ʼn formele sowel as informele struktuur, word die moontlikheid van enige deelnemende onderneming om kennis te gebruik of te hergebruik, vergroot in ʼn gelyktydig groeiende kennisbasis. So ʼn “Kennis Netwerk” (KN) versterk die uitruil van kennis tussen individue, groepe en organisasies op informele sowel as formele maniere. Hierdie netwerk is ook meetbaar in die sin dat hoe meer suksesse aangekondig word, deur individue en organisasies wat aansluit, hoe meer ondernemings wil aansluit. Dit is duidelik dat kennis ten opsigte van die ontwerp, ontplooiing en bestuur van ʼn Kennis Netwerk uiters voordelig kan wees. Dit is ʼn uitdaging om ʼn Kennis Netwerk suksesvol te ontwerp en te ontplooi en daar is die afgelope dekade op ʼn wye front beperkte navorsing op hierdie terrein gedoen. Die ontwerp, ontplooiing en bestuursfunksies vereis ʼn goeie begrip van sosiale prosesse met beklemtoning van hoe mense leer en kennis uitruil. Die bestuur van ʼn Kennis Netwerk moet pro-aktief en sistematies benader word, ten opsigte van die beplanning en ontplooiing van ʼn geformaliseerde netwerk vir die skep en oordrag van kennis. Die bevordering en verbetering van omstandighede kan formele sowel as informele netwerkbeoefening binne ʼn groter samewerkende netwerk van ondernemings vestig. Hierdie proefskrif bied ʼn verfynde metodologie vir die inisiëring, ontplooiing en bestuur van ʼn Innovasie Projek wat gebaseer is op die beskikbare navorsing wat in hierdie domein gerapporteer is. Dit behels konsepte van generiese, gedeeltelike en spesifieke padkaarte, asook die beste praktyke, patrone en voorbeelde en gee geleentheid vir individuele spanne om kennis ten opsigte van spesifieke projekte en kundigheid in konteks te bekom vir latere hergebruik.