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Value investing and the business cycle in the South African contextKirsten, Rudo Stefan 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Waarde- en groei-beleggingstrategieë dateer terug na Fama en French (1992) en Lakonishok,
Shleifer en Vishny (1994). Bogenoemde studies is gebaseer op vroeë navorsing wat die fokus
verskuif het om sodoende waardasieverhoudinge en maatskappygrootte te gebruik as
toonaangewende verklarende maatstawwe vir aandele-opbrengste. Toenemende studies in hierdie
beleggingsveld het die akademiese en beleggingsgemeenskap oortuig dat ’n waardegebaseerde
beleggingstrategie, gemiddeld, ’n groeigebaseerde beleggingstrategie oortref.
Waarde- en groei-eienskappe word algemeen aanvaar en deur fondsbestuurders en beleggers as
onderskeidende beleggingstrategieë aangewend. Hierdie eiesoortige beleggingstrategieë is op die
Suid-Afrikaanse mark vir die periode 1990 tot 2009 toegepas. Die beduidende veranderinge binne
die ekonomiese klimaat en aandelemarkte was die oorhoofse rede vir die insluiting van die
ekonomiese siklusse in die navorsing, spesifiek die opswaai- en afswaai-fases van die ekonomie.
Die Sharpe-, Treynor- en Inligting–prestasiemaatstawwe vir waarde- en groei-portefeuljes is in
hierdie studie vergelyk en geanaliseer.
Normaalweg word prestasie-beoordeling nie begin met ’n gedetailleerde analise van die
opbrengsverdelings om te bepaal watter prestasie-maatstaf meer voortreflik is nie. Die opbrengsdensiteit
vir alle portefeuljes is bepaal om sodoende die opbrengsverspreidings en risikooorwegings
beter te verstaan binne die onderskeie ekonomiese siklusse.
Die bevindinge binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks was wel ooreenstemmend met voorafgaande
navorsing dat waardegebaseerde investering groeigebaseerde investering oortref vir aandele met
hoër waardasieverhoudinge teenoor aandele met laer waardasieverhoudinge. Die gemiddelde
maandelikse prestasie van waarde-portefeuljes het ook groei-portefeuljes oortref in die
ekonomiese opswaai-siklusse, wat ooreenstemmend is met soortgelyke navorsing wat in ander
markte gedoen is. In die ekonomiese afswaai-siklus het groei-portefeuljes waarde-portefeuljes
oortref, ooreenstemmend met die van die Amerikaanse mark.
Die navorsing dui daarop dat waardegebaseerde investering voortreflik is oor die volle
steekproefperiode, wat beteken dat beleggers wat waarde-beleggingstrategieë volg hoër
opbrengste kan verwag in alle ekonomiese siklusse, maar die voordele sal groter wees in tye van
’n ekonomiese opswaai. Die wisselvalligheid van opbrengste binne die twee ekonomiese siklusse
is sigbaar en beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid om die ekonomiese siklus in beleggingstrategieë en
-besluite in te sluit.
Die ekonomiese siklus verbreed die dimensie tot die evaluasie van waardegebaseerde
beleggingstrategie en dit is noodsaaklik dat dit ’n geïntegreerde deel vorm van die
evaluasieproses. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Value and growth investment strategies can be traced back to Fama and French (1992) and
Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994). The studies built on earlier work done and lead to
attention being shifted to valuation ratios and company size as leading explanatory indicators for
stock returns. Based on the accumulated evidence from studies, the academic and investment
community came to agree that value investment strategies, on average, outperform growth
investment strategies.
Value and growth, are widely recognised and used by money managers and investors as
distinctive investment strategies. These style-specific investment strategies were tested on the
South African market for the period 1990 to 2009. The significant changes within the economic
conditions and securities markets motivated the research to include the business cycle –
specifically, contraction and expansion of the economy – within the scope of this study. The
Sharpe, Treynor and Information performance ratios, that were calculated for compiled value and
growth portfolios, were compared and analysed.
The performance evaluation is not normally initiated with a detailed analysis of the return
distribution in order to determine which performance measure is superior. The return densities for
all portfolios were calculated in order to gain a better understanding of return distributions and risk
considerations within the different business cycles.
The results indicated that, within the South African context, value investing did outperform growth
investing as indicated by previous research that stocks with high valuation ratios tend to
outperform stocks with low valuation ratios. The mean monthly performance of value portfolios also
outperformed growth portfolios in the period of economic upswing, which is a similar result as that
of other markets where this kind of research has been conducted. In the economic downturn period
growth investing seems to be superior to value investing similar to that of the US market.
The study indicates that the superior performance of value investing is robust for the whole sample
period, meaning that investors will be better off investing in stocks with high valuation ratios for all
economic conditions, but the benefits of value investing would be greater during periods of
economic upswing. The volatility of returns within the two economic conditions is quite evident and
highlights the importance of incorporating business cycles into investment strategies and
decisions.
The business cycle adds another dimension to value investing strategy evaluation and should be
incorporated in the evaluation process.
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Determining and overcoming the behavioural impediments to effective project team collaborationKoen, Nolan 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / Research has shown that a large percentage of projects do not deliver expected outcomes on schedule and within budget. Further many projects are cancelled before completion. One of the reasons provided is that project managers usually only focus on three technical elements of a project; namely performance, cost and time. Literature on this matter indicates that project managers tend to neglect an important aspect of the process namely the people dynamics. The manner in which people are treated becomes a critical success factor in the successful execution of projects.
Further reasons for project failure include bad team selections, poor communication and poor leadership. These hindrances need to be addressed in order for the project to be a successful. Guidelines to address these issues are available; however, research suggests that it is not commonly implemented.
The aim of this research is to investigate project teams in practice. Questionnaires were sent to project managers enquiring whether the suggested guidelines are applied and whether any other behavioural problems, which are not identified in the literature, exist.
After compiling and analyzing the data from the returned questionnaires, solutions were investigated to address these problems. Finally, feedback and recommendations were provided to the respective project managers. 56 Pages.
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Comparison of King III and King II, and the implications of King IIIMuwandi, Tinei 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / The introduction of King III has resulted in many changes to corporate governance practices. The changes inevitably have implications and challenges for organisations. If the changes introduced by King III as well as the implications and challenges are not well understood, implementing King III could be a very challenging exercise.
This research report outlines the key differences between King III and King II. The research report also highlights the major implications and challenges of implementing the King III principles. In addition, those aspects of King III that are covered in the new Companies Act have also been outlined. In analysing the changes between King II and King III, and the implications and challenges of King III‟s principles and recommendations, the author followed the layout of the chapters in King III, namely ethical leadership and corporate citizenship, boards and directors, audit committees, the governance of risk, the governance of information technology, compliance with laws, codes, rules and standards, internal audit, governing stakeholder relationships and integrated reporting.
The differences between King III and King II were analysed through a study and comparison of the King III and King II Reports. The implications and challenges were analysed through reading literature on King III and corporate governance in general. Aspects of King III covered in the Companies Act were analysed through a study of King III and the Companies Act. The author analysed the differences, implications and challenges of both the principles and the recommended practice in the King Reports. No distinction was made between principles and recommended practices.
The main changes introduced by King III relate to the composition and role of the board, the board committees and the new topic on IT governance and the need to publish an integrated report. Though discussed in different chapters, King III has emphasised the link and interplay between ethics, corporate social responsibility, governing stakeholder relationships and integrated reporting. In addition to the above, the most contentious change is probably the applicability of King III to all entities regardless of form of incorporation. King III has also attempted to bring about a physiological change in the way companies perceive King III by changing the “comply or explain” concept to the “apply or explain concept”.
The direct implications and challenges brought about by King III relate to the time, efforts and costs needed to implement the various King III principles and recommendations. King III could also result in an increase in the size or diversity of the board, and companies are likely to find it challenging to get qualified people to fill directorship posts. Integrated reporting is going to change the way
companies view corporate social responsibility and the way they report non-financial information to stakeholders.
Despite the challenges, there is no doubt that King III goes a long way to ensure that South Africa‟s corporate governance system is at par with the rest of the world.
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What shareholder information on the shareholder spread is disclosed in the financial statements of JSE listed entities in accordance with listing requirements of the JSE?Madubela, Albert Dingalethu 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / The study was undertaken to determine whether companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange disclose shareholder spread in line with the available statutes such as the JSE Listing Requirements. Further, the study explored the closing balances for group, company, trusts, subsidiaries, and treasuries of all the 50 companies studied to ascertain whether there were differences with the ex WDH share program. Various sources to answering the question were used including the Internet, McGregor BFA, Annual Reports of the companies, and material from University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB).
There were varying findings with regards to the study as it was found that some companies had differences in group, company, trusts, subsidiaries, and treasuries. Most of the differences were due to company mistakes, non-consolidation of trusts, and use of different methods. It was found that certain companies tend to omit certain information in disclosing the shareholder spread and this has resulted in many companies with differences in their closing balances for the company, group, trusts, subsidiaries, and treasuries.
In addition, it was also discovered that certain companies disclosed major shareholders of less than the prescribed five percent which proved to be very helpful in this study.
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Factors affecting strategy implementation and the role of middle managers in implementationDlodlo, Thobani 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / The global business environment has evolved since 1990. This change has brought companies new realities in the form of new business opportunities for growth and, at the same time has exposed them to new competitors.
This has caused companies to invest many resources in devising new effective strategies to take advantage of the new opportunities, whilst protecting their market positions, which are crucial to their continued economic existence.
Effective implementation of strategy has become the goal of many organisations. However, in translating their grand plans into action, unacceptably high rates of failure have been reported among many companies. In most organisations, this responsibility has been left to lower levels of management.
The purpose of this research was to establish what factors affected the implementation of strategy and more specifically, what role lower levels of management play in the implementation process. A qualitative study was undertaken where in-depth interviews were held with a senior executive and middle managers of a global company.
Eight propositions were posited after a detailed review of literature on strategy implementation and middle managers. These were tested in relation to the results of the research and conclusions were then drawn. The data was analysed using content analysis and frequency tables.
The research findings showed that middle managers play a critical role in facilitating the effective implementation of strategy. It also showed that the execution process is fraught with numerous challenges, some of which are lack of sufficient budgets, high staff turnover affecting continuity and the destructive nature of internal competition.
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A characterisation of open source software adoption decisions in South African organisationsMoolman, Lafras 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / The objective of this research is to characterise the factors influencing Open Source Software
(OSS) adoption decisions in South African organisations. OSS is used extensively throughout the
world, but there is a large amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding decisions to adopt
OSS. The research improved this situation by determining the adoption factors that are relevant to
South African organisations.
OSS adoption is influenced by individual and organisational technology adoption factors. An
extensive literature revealed the technology adoption factors relevant to OSS adoption. Adoption
factors identified in literature were localised to the South African context, taking into account both
public and private sector organisations.
The research has found that OSS adoption factors identified in literature are relevant in a South
African context. Factors investigated include access to source code, adoption costs, software
freedom and control, technological factors, support factors, organisational factors and
environmental factors.
An important factor in OSS adoption decisions is the choice between vendor and community based
OSS and the skills and resource requirements. Choosing community based software requires
additional training, skills and resources. Organisations should take into account the effect of OSS
development methodology on adoption decision factors. Important adoption decision factors
include software compatibility (open standards), compatibility different hardware platforms (cross
platform capabilities) and software and hardware vendor independence.
The research concludes with recommendations approaching OSS adoption decisions when
considering the choice between OSS and proprietary software.
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An investigation of the number of shares reported by JSE-listed companies and the effect on the net asset value or tangible net asset value ratio disclosed in annual reports for the 2000-2009 financial yearsJaffar, Yacoob 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / In the absence of clear accounting guidelines, the closing number of shares reported in the company annual report is not always equivalent to the closing balance of the group shares.
The closing balance of the number of shares of 111 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, for the period 2000 to 2009, was analysed and compared to an electronic database, managed and maintained by the Graduate School of Business of the University of Stellenbosch, on which a reconciliation of the closing number of group shares was recorded for the companies selected.
In addition, the effect of the incorrect number of shares reported in the annual report was compared to the net asset value and/or tangible net asset value ratio, to the extent that the information was available.
For the purposes of this empirical study, the mining, most of the financials, development capital and alternative exchange sectors were excluded.
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Analysing containerised volumes to establish when there will be a need for additional hub ports in South AfricaMeyer, Conrad 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Transnet, the entity responsible for port infrastructure and the operating thereof, are faced with the difficult task of ensuring that the port system in South Africa is always ready to cater to all import and export requirements of the country. A major portion of these volumes will enter and leave the country in the form of containerised cargo, which effectively unitises the cargo for easier handling. What makes the task for Transnet that much more difficult, is that volumes are not easily forecasted and when one takes into account that ports need to be looking at least ten years down the line to ensure infrastructure can be put in place in time, it makes the problem that much more difficult. International studies show that trade between India, Europe and South America are growing, which provides South Africa with the opportunity to become a hub port based on the countries central location between these three areas. Currently Durban and the recently opened port of Ngqura are and will be serving as hub ports to cater for these and other volumes, but it is not certain under what conditions there would be a need for an additional hub port, if at all. Through the course of this research report three scenarios of growth are examined in an effort to answer this question. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Transnet, die entiteit verantwoordelik vir hawe-infrastruktuur en die werking daarvan, is met die moeilike taak geplaas om te verseker dat die hawe-stelsel in Suid-Afrika altyd gereed is vir al die invoer en uitvoer vereistes van die land. 'n Groot gedeelte van hierdie vereistes sal die land betree en verlaat in die vorm van houers, wat goedere unitiseer vir makliker hantering. Wat die taak vir Transnet soveel moeiliker maak, is dat die volumes nie maklik geskat kan word nie, en wanneer Transnet ten minste tien jaar in die toekoms moet skat om seker te maak dat die infrastruktuur in plek kan gestel word in tyd, maak dit die probleem soveel moeiliker. Internasionale navorsing dui dat die handel tussen Indië, Europa en Suid-Amerika groei, wat vir Suid-Afrika die geleentheid skep om 'n ‘hub port’ to word wat gebaseer is op die land se sentrale ligging tussen hierdie drie lande. Op die oomblik sal Durban en die onlangs geopende hawe van Ngqura, as ‘hub ports’ funksioneer om voorsiening te maak vir hierdie en ander volumes, maar dit is nie seker onder watter omstandighede sou daar 'n behoefte vir 'n ekstra-hub port wees nie. Deur die loop van hierdie navorsing word verslag gelewer van die drie scenario's, en word hierdie vraag ondersoek in 'n poging om hierdie vraag te beantwoord.
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The most important barriers inhibiting the sustainability and growth of energy service companies (ESCOs) in South AfricaKellermann, Johann 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It has been established worldwide that energy efficiency undertakings are the fastest, most cost-effective and cleanest way to extend energy supplies. When the energy supply made available through energy efficiency projects are compared with increasing primary supply
through building new conventional generation facilities, the former is in most cases also
safer, more reliable and a more secure form of investment. Energy service companies (ESCOs) are the recognised implementation vehicles of energy
efficiency projects and have been in use internationally for many years for this purpose.
Globally, however, ESCOs do not have a good history of being viable business enterprises. The most important barriers identified internationally hindering ESCOs’ growth
and sustainability were the potential customers’ lack of awareness, information and
understanding regarding energy efficiency projects, the financing of these projects, as well
as the support of government on energy efficiency policies and regulations. The urgency of implementing energy efficiency measures in South Africa is critical based on the precarious situation of the national electrical suppliers’ ability to provide electricity unfailingly to all its current and future customers. The South African electrical energy situation should therefore provide tremendous opportunities to the local ESCO industry. The aim of this study was therefore to reiterate the importance of energy efficiency
projects and to describe the barriers to growth and sustainability experienced by ESCOs in
South Africa against the international backdrop. This was done by way of a survey sent out
to all registered ESCOs in South Africa.
Based on the responses to the survey, the South African industry is in dire straits and is
hindered by various barriers to their growth and sustainability. The study identified eight
major barriers in the South African ESCO industry which are similar to those experienced
by ESCOs internationally. The uniqueness of the local barriers however, is that the
industry operates in a highly regulated environment and that these regulators, being the
government and Eskom, are recognised as the main perpetrators responsible for most of
these barriers, largely due to a lack of dedicated action.
Furthermore, the study shows that it is critical for all role players in the South African
energy efficiency industry, and specifically the South African government and Eskom, to
recognise these barriers and to assist in solving them to improve the growth opportunities
in the ESCO industry. Removal of these barriers will not only improve the electricity
situation, but will also have a number of positive effects on the micro and macro-economic
levels of South Africa, as well as the environment.
Finally, the study makes suggestions about the way forward through a number of actions
to be taken to lower or remove the most important of these barriers. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is reeds wêreldwyd bevestig dat energie-effektiwiteitsprojekte die vinnigste, kostedoeltreffendste
en omgewingsvriendelikste manier is om energiebronne uit te brei.
Wanneer die energieverskaffing wat beskikbaar gestel word deur energieeffektiwiteitsprojekte
vergelyk word met die vermeerdering van primêre energie deur die
bou van nuwe konvensionele opwekkingsfasiliteite, is eersgenoemde in die meeste
gevalle ook veiliger en ’n meer betroubare en stabiele beleggingsvorm.
Energie-diensmaatskappye (energy service companies (ESCOs)) is die erkende
implementeringsmediums vir energie-effektiwiteitsprojekte en word reeds baie jare lank internasionaal vir hierdie doel aangewend. ESCOs het egter wêreldwyd nie ’n goeie rekord
as lewensvatbare sake-ondernemings nie. Die vernaamste hindernisse wat ESCOs se
groei en welvaart stuit is internasionaal geïdentifiseer as voornemende kliënte se gebrek
aan bewustheid, inligting en begrip rakende energie-effektiwiteitsprojekte, die finansiering
van sodanige projekte, asook die ondersteuning van die regering ten opsigte van energieeffektiewiteitsbeleide en -regulasies.
Daar is groot dringendheid om energie-effektiewe projekte en maatreëls in Suid Afrika te
implementeer, gebaseer op die huidige onsekerheid of die nasionale elektrisiteitsverskaffer wel in staat is om ’n betroubare bron van elektrisiteit aan sy huidige en voornemende kliënte te voorsien. Die Suid Afrikaanse elektriese energie situasie behoort daarom heelwat geleenthede te skep vir die plaaslike ESCO-industrie.
Die doel van hierdie studie was dus om die belangrikheid van energie-effektiwiteitsprojekte
te beklemtoon en om die hindernisse te omskryf wat ESCOs in Suid Afrika se groei en
welvaart stuit, gesien vanuit ‘n internasionale perspektief. Dit was gedoen deur ‘n vraelys
aan alle geregistreerde ESCOs te stuur.
Na aanleiding van die terugvoering op die vraelyste, sukkel hierdie industrie om kop bo
water te hou weens verskeie hindernisse wat hulle groei en welvaart stuit. Hierdie studie
identifiseer agt belangrike hindernisse in die Suid-Afrikaanse ESCO industrie wat
ooreenstem met die wat deur internasionale ESCOs ondervind word. Die uniekheid van die
plaaslike hindernisse is egter dat die industrie werksaam is in ‘n streng gereguleerde
omgewing en dat die reguleerders, die regering en Eskom, ook uitgewys word as die vernaamste skuldiges wat verantwoordelik is vir meeste van die hindernisse, hoofsaaklik as gevolg van hulle gebrek aan toegewyde uitvoering van take.
Die bevindinge van hierdie studie toon verder dat dit krities is vir al die rolspelers in die
Suid-Afrikaanse energie-effektiwiteitsindustrie, spesifiek die Suid-Afrikaanse regering en
Eskom, om hierdie hindernisse te erken en om saam te werk om hulle te oorkom en sodoende die groeigeleenthede in die ESCO-bedryf te verbeter. Die verwydering van hierdie hindernisse sal nie alleen die elektrisiteitsituasie verbeter nie, maar sal ook ’n aantal positiewe invloede hê op die mikro- en makro-ekonomiese vlak van Suid-Afrika, sowel as die omgewing.
Die studie sluit af met voorstelle rakende die uitvoering van verskeie aksies wat die
verwydering van die vernaamste hindernisse tot gevolg sal hê, of die hindernisse se impak
op die industrie sal verminder.
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Predicting corporate credit ratings using neural network modelsFrank, Simon James 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: For many organisations who wish to sell their debt, or investors who are looking to invest in an organisation, company credit ratings are an important surrogate measure for the
marketability or risk associated with a particular issue. Credit ratings are issued by a limited number of authorised companies – with the predominant being Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s
and Fitch – who have the necessary experience, skills and motive to calculate an objective
credit rating. In the wake of some high profile bankruptcies, there has been recent conjecture about the accuracy and reliability of current ratings. Issues relating specifically to the lack of competition in the rating market have been identified as possible causes of the poor
timeliness of rating updates. Furthermore, the cost of obtaining (or updating) a rating from
one of the predominant agencies has also been identified as a contributing factor. The high
costs can lead to a conflict of interest where rating agencies are obliged to issue more
favourable ratings to ensure continued patronage.
Based on these issues, there is sufficient motive to create more cost effective alternatives to
predicting corporate credit ratings. It is not the intention of these alternatives to replace the
relevancy of existing rating agencies, but rather to make the information more accessible,
increase competition, and hold the agencies more accountable for their ratings through better
transparency. The alternative method investigated in this report is the use of a backpropagation artificial neural network to predict corporate credit ratings for companies in the manufacturing sector of the United States of America. Past research has shown that backpropagation neural
networks are effective machine learning techniques for predicting credit ratings because no prior subjective or expert knowledge, or assumptions on model structure, are required to
create a representative model. For the purposes of this study only public information and
data is used to develop a cost effective and accessible model. The basis of the research is the assumption that all information (both quantitive and qualitative) that is required to calculate a credit rating for a company, is contained within financial data from income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements. The premise of the assumption is that any qualitative or subjective assessment about company creditworthiness will ultimately be reflected through financial performance. The results show that a backpropagation neural network, using 10 input variables on a data
set of 153 companies, can classify 75% of the ratings accurately. The results also show that
including collinear inputs to the model can affect the classification accuracy and prediction
variance of the model. It is also shown that latent projection techniques, such as partial least squares, can be used to reduce the dimensionality of the model without making any
assumption about data relevancy. The output of these models, however, does not improve
the classification accuracy achieved using selected un-correlated inputs. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vir baie organisasies wat skuldbriewe wil verkoop, of beleggers wat in ʼn onderneming wil belê is ʼn maatskappy kredietgradering ’n belangrike plaasvervangende maatstaf vir die bemarkbaarheid van, of die risiko geassosieer met ʼn betrokke uitgifte. Kredietgraderings word deur ʼn beperkte aantal gekeurde maatskappye uitgereik – met die belangrikste synde Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s en Fitch. Hulle het almal die nodige ervaring, kundigheid en rede om objektiewe kredietgraderings te bereken. In die nadraai van ʼn aantal hoë profiel bankrotskappe was daar onlangs gissings oor die akkuraatheid en betroubaarheid van huidige graderings. Kwessies wat spesifiek verband hou met die gebrek aan kompetisie in die graderingsmark is geïdentifiseer as ‘n moontlike oorsaak vir die swak tydigheid van gradering opdatering. Verder word die koste om ‘n gradering (of opdatering van gradering) van een van die dominante agentskappe te bekom ook geïdentifiseer as ʼn verdere bydraende faktor gesien. Die hoë koste kan tot ‘n belange konflik lei as graderingsagentskappe onder druk kom om gunstige graderings uit te reik om sodoende volhoubare klante te behou. As gevolg van hierdie kwessies is daar voldoende motivering om meer koste doeltreffende alternatiewe vir die skatting van korporatiewe kredietgraderings te ondersoek. Dit is nie die doelwit van hierdie alternatiewe om die toepaslikheid van bestaande graderingsagentskappe te vervang nie, maar eerder om die inligting meer toeganklik te maak, mededinging te verhoog en om die agentskappe meer toerekenbaar vir hul graderings te maak deur beter
deursigtigheid. Die alternatiewe manier wat in hierdie verslag ondersoek word, is die gebruik van ‘n kunsmatige neurale netwerk om die kredietgraderings van vervaardigingsmaatskappye in die VSA te skat. Vorige navorsing het getoon dat neurale netwerke doeltreffende masjienleer
tegnieke is om kredietgraderings te skat omdat geen voorafkennis of gesaghebbende kundigheid, of aannames oor die modelstruktuur nodig is om ‘n verteenwoordigende model te bou. Vir doeleindes van hierdie navorsingsverslag word slegs openbare inligting en data gebruik om ʼn kostedoeltreffende en toeganklike model te bou. Die grondslag van hierdie navorsing is die aanname dat alle inligting (beide kwantitatief en
kwalitatief) wat benodig word om ʼn kredietgradering vir ʼn onderneming te bereken, opgesluit is in die finansiële data in die inkomstestate, balansstate en kontantvloei state. Die aanname is dus dat alle kwalitatiewe of subjektiewe assessering oor ‘n maatskappy se
kredietwaardigheid uiteindelik in die finansiële prestasie sal reflekteer. Die resultate toon dat ʼn neurale netwerk met 10 toevoer veranderlikes op ‘n datastel van 153 maatskappye 75% van die graderings akkuraat klassifiseer. Die resultate toon ook dat die insluiting van kollineêre toevoere tot die model die klassifikasie akkuraatheid en die variansie van die skatting kan beïnvloed. Daar word verder getoon dat latente projeksietegnieke, soos parsiële kleinste kwadrate, die dimensies van die model kan verminder sonder om enige aannames oor data toepaslikheid te maak. Die afvoer van hierdie modelle verhoog egter nie die klassifikasie akkuraatheid wat behaal is met die gekose ongekorreleerde toevoere nie. 121 pages.
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