Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Several mixed industry prediction models about failure have been reasonably successful in differentiating between successful companies and those that have failed. The challenge, however, is to venture into the grey area in between and to identify companies, which are financially unstable, at an early stage. Early identification enables management to intervene timeously in an attempt to prevent failure. Failure is defined as either liquidation, delisting, suspension of listing or a substantial change in structure. The grey area focused on in this study is overtrading. Overtrading is triggered by the company growing at too high a rate relative to its specific structure. Cash is necessary to fund expansion, whether for an increase in inventories, credit sales or new non-current assets. If the company does not generate enough cash to fund this expansion, it has to be financed through external sources. The longer the period of growth and the higher the growth rate, the more the cash requirements. From the theoretical model underlying overtrading, it was found that: • the higher the growth in sales, • the smaller the profit margin, and • the higher the net current assets in proportion to total assets, the lower the cash flow from operating activities before dividends were paid (CFO). Any company ought to generate enough cash from its daily activities in order to maintain the existing level of business, to repay loans, to replace assets and to pay dividends. If the internal generation of cash is insufficient to finance these activities, existing cash resources will be consumed, unproductive non-current assets will be sold and possibly also some of the productive non-current assets. The outcome for such a company is a business combination or liquidation. Due to the fact that cash plays such a big role in failure, cash flow variables constitute the majority of the independent variables used in the development of the failure prediction models. The overtrading ratio was developed as a measurement tool to quantify overtrading. As long as the company generates a positive CFO, it is not so much at risk as a company that does not succeed in generating a positive CFO. Therefore, a negative CFO for a three-year period was decided on as the norm for identifying possible financial difficulty. A company is involved in overtrading if the sum of CFO for three years less the sum of the adjusted profit for the three years, divided by the absolute value of the sum of the adjusted profit for the three years equals -1 or smaller in the case of a company with a cumulative profit for the three years; and smaller than nought in the case of a company with a cumulative loss for the three years. South African industrial companies listed for at least three years during the period 1974 to 2003, were identified. From a total of 6 662 cumulative three-year periods, 944 overtrading years were identified. Failure occurred in 212 out of 526 companies involved in overtrading between January 1974 and August 1989. 120 out of 199 companies involved in overtrading between September 1989 and November 1995 failed, while 90 out of 127 companies involved in overtrading, failed between December 1995 and June 2000. By June 2005 it was already evident that 49 out of 92 companies involved in overtrading between July 2000 and December 2003, had already failed. Companies involved in overtrading, may survive artificially for lengthy periods with the support of providers of capital. It can therefore be expected that failure prediction models will not achieve a better accuracy rate than achieved by probabilities. Six failure prediction models utilising classification tree algorithms were developed. Using data from two periods, two different models were developed; one for growth and recession phases of the economy, the other without distinction between economic phases. The first period was September 1989 to June 2000, the other December 1995 to June 2000. June 2000 was chosen as the cut-off, since a period of five years after an overtrading year was necessary to follow-up whether the company had failed. Each universe was split in two – the learning sample, more or less 60%, and the test sample, more or less 40%. The models were developed from the learning sample and the test sample was used as substantiation of the results of the developed model. The total classification accuracy of the three best models, one for the growth-phase, one for the recession-phase and one mixed economy model, is respectively 72,99%, 96,67% and 80,26% and the classification accuracy for the failed companies 75,29%, 100% and 85,19% respectively. The total prediction accuracy of the three models is respectively 69,23%, 80,95% and 72,55%, and that of the failed companies 73,68%, 86,67% and 83,33%. The accuracy of all the models was found to be higher than what the accuracy would have been if all the companies involved in overtrading were merely classified as having failed. From the results of the different tests, it seems that Ver3, the growth in sales from year 1 to year 3, is probably the most important independent variable in the classification between failed and non-failed overtrading years. This corroborates the theory underlying overtrading that indicates that a high sales growth puts a company at risk for cash flow problems. Companies where the cash flow problems develop because of an increase in current assets will be intercepted by the overtrading ratio. Companies where cash flow problems develop due to replacement of non-current assets, will not necessarily be intercepted by the overtrading ratio as CFO that is used in the overtrading ratio does not allow for replacement of non-current assets. It is therefore necessary to adjust CFO to a free cash flow CFO. Depreciation is used as an alternative for replacement investment since disclosure of replacement investment is not required. Depreciation is theoretically the fraction of the value of an asset lost during the year; this value needs to be replaced. By subtracting the depreciation for the year from CFO, this amount will be more representative of the cash position of the company after considering all the normal transactions in order to sustain the business. After all the adjustments for a free cash flow, six models were developed for the different periods and economic phases. The accuracy of these models were better than what the accuracy would have been if overtrading years were merely classified as failed. Implementing these models would therefore improve specificity. From the tests performed, Ver3 and KVB3/TB (the cumulative CFO for the three years over total assets) seem to be the most important independent variables in the classification between failed and non-failed when considering free cash flow. This is informative as KVB3:TB represents a fictional amount, as if the company spent an amount equal to depreciation on replacement investment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Heelwat gemengde industrie-mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle was al redelik suksesvol in die onderskeid tussen mislukte en suksesvolle maatskappye. Die uitdaging is egter om die grys area tussen dié uiterstes te betree en ’n maatskappy wat finansieel onstabiel is, vroegtydig te identifiseer. Vroegtydige identifikasie stel die bestuur in staat om betyds in te gryp en mislukking te voorkom. Mislukking word as likwidasie, òf denotering, òf opskorting van notering, òf ’n wesenlike struktuurverandering, gedefinieer. Die grys area waarop die fokus in hierdie studie val, is oorbedryf. Oorbedryf word veroorsaak deurdat die maatskappy teen ’n te hoë koers relatief tot sy spesifieke struktuur groei. Kontant is nodig om uitbreiding, hetsy ’n toename in voorraad, kredietverkope of nuwe nie-bedryfsbates, te finansier. Indien die besigheid nie genoeg kontant genereer om hierdie uitbreiding te finansier nie, moet dit vanuit eksterne bronne gefinansier word. Hoe langer die tydperk van groei voortduur en hoe hoër die groeikoers is, hoe meer is die kontantbehoeftes. Uit die teoretiese model wat onderliggend is aan oorbedryf, is bevind dat: • hoe hoër die groei in verkope, • hoe kleiner die winspersentasie, en • hoe hoër die bedryfskapitaal in verhouding tot die totale bates; hoe laer is die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite voor dividende betaal (KVB). Enige besigheid behoort genoeg kontant uit dag-tot-dag-aktiwiteite te genereer ten einde die bestaande vlak van besigheid vol te hou, lenings terug te betaal, bates te vervang en dividende te betaal. Indien die interne kontantgenerering onvoldoende is om hierdie aktiwiteite te finansier, sal bestaande kontantbronne uitgewis word, onproduktiewe nie-bedryfsbates sal verkoop word en moontlik ook van die produktiewe nie-bedryfsbates. Die uiteinde vir so ’n maatskappy is ’n besigheidsoorname of ’n likwidasie. Aangesien kontantvloei so ’n groot rol in mislukking speel, is kontantvloeiveranderlikes die meerderheid van die onafhanklike veranderlikes wat in die ontwikkeling van die mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle gebruik is. Die oorbedryfsratio is as ’n maatstaf ontwikkel om oorbedryf te meet. Solank as wat ’n maatskappy ’n positiewe KVB genereer, is hy nie so riskant soos ’n maatskappy wat nie daarin kan slaag om positiewe kontant te genereer nie. Daarom is ’n negatiewe kumulatiewe KVB vir ’n drie-jaar-tydperk as die norm gestel om moontlike finansiële nood te identifiseer. ’n Maatskappy is besig met oorbedryf indien die som van die KVB vir drie jaar minus die som van die aangepaste wins vir die drie jaar, gedeel deur die absolute waarde van die som van die aangepaste wins vir die drie jaar, gelyk aan of kleiner as -1 is, in die geval van ’n maatskappy wat ’n kumulatiewe wins vir die drie jaar het; en kleiner as nul in die geval van ’n maatskappy wat ’n kumulatiewe verlies vir die drie jaar het. Alle Suid-Afrikaanse genoteerde industriële maatskappye wat vir ten minste drie jaar gedurende die tydperk 1974 tot 2003 genoteer was, is geïdentifiseer. Uit ’n totaal van 6 662 kumulatiewe drie-jaar-tydperke was daar 944 oorbedryfsjare. Vanaf Januarie 1974 tot Augustus 1989 was daar 526 oorbedryfsjare, waarvan 212 misluk het. Vanaf September 1989 tot November 1995 was daar 199 oorbedryfsjare, waarvan 120 misluk het en vanaf Desember 1995 tot Junie 2000 het 90 van 127 oorbedryfsjare misluk. Teen Junie 2005 was dit reeds bekend dat 49 van die 92 oorbedryfsjare tussen Julie 2000 en Desember 2003 misluk het. Oorbedryfsmaatskappye bly soms vir uitgebreide tydperke kunsmatig voortbestaan, indien die verskaffers van kapitaal hulle dra. Die verwagting was dus dat mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle nie ’n beter akkuraatheid sou behaal as wat waarskynlikhede sou bepaal nie. Ses mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle is met behulp van die klassifikasieboomalgoritme ontwikkel. Een model elk vir die groeifase en die resessie-fase van die ekonomie en een model sonder onderskeid van die ekonomiese fase is met die gebruikmaking van twee tydperke se data ontwikkel. Die eerste tydperk was September 1989 tot Junie 2000 en die ander Desember 1995 tot Junie 2000. Junie 2000 is as die afsnypunt gebruik aangesien ’n vyf-jaaropvolgtydperk na ’n oorbedryfsjaar nodig is om vas te stel of die maatskappy misluk het. Elke universum is in twee verdeel – die leersteekproef, ongeveer 60%, en die toetssteekproef, ongeveer 40%. Die modelle is uit die leersteekproef afgelei en die toetssteekproef is gebruik as bevestiging van die resultate van die afgeleide model. Die totale klassifikasie-akkuraatheid van die drie beste modelle, een vir die groeifase, een vir die resessie-fase en een gemengde ekonomiemodel, is onderskeidelik 72,99%, 96,67% en 80,26% en dié vir die mislukte maatskappye 75,29%, 100% en 85,19%. Die totale voorspellingsakkuraatheid van die drie modelle is onderskeidelik 69,23%, 80,95% en 72,55% en dié van die mislukte maatskappye 73,68%, 86,67% en 83,33%. Al die modelle se akkuraatheid is meer as wat die akkuraatheid sou wees indien al die oorbedryfsjare bloot as misluk geklassifiseer sou wees. Uit die resultate van verskeie toetse blyk dit dat Ver3, die groei in verkope vanaf jaar 1 tot jaar 3, waarskynlik die belangrikste onafhanklike veranderlike in die onderskeid tussen mislukte en nie-mislukte oorbedryfsjare is. Dit ondersteun die teorie wat onderliggend is aan oorbedryf, wat aandui dat ’n hoë groei in verkope ’n maatskappy op risiko plaas vir kontantvloeiprobleme. Maatskappye waar die kontantvloeiprobleme vanweë ’n uitbreiding in bedryfskapitaal ontstaan, word deur die oorbedryfsratio onderskep. Die maatskappye waar die kontantvloeiprobleme eerder uit die vervanging van nie-bedryfsbates sal voortvloei, sal nie noodwendig deur die oorbedryfsratio ondervang word nie, aangesien die KVB wat in die oorbedryfsratio gebruik word, nie voorsiening maak vir vervangende investering nie. Dit is daarom nodig om KVB tot ’n vrye kontantvloei-KVB aan te pas. Waardevermindering word as ’n alternatief vir vervangende investering gebruik, aangesien vervangende investering nie ’n verpligte openbaarmakingsvereiste is nie. Waardevermindering is teoreties dié deel van die bate wat gedurende die jaar opgebruik is en wat vervang behoort te word. Deur dus die jaarlikse waardevermindering van KVB af te trek, is hierdie syfer meer verteenwoordigend van die maatskappy se kontantposisie nadat alle normale transaksies om die besigheid in stand te hou, in ag geneem is. Na die aanpassings vir vrye kontantvloei is weer ses modelle uit die verskillende tydperke en vir die verskillende ekonomiese fases ontwikkel. Al die modelle se akkuraatheid is beter as wat die akkuraatheid sou wees indien al die oorbedryfsjare bloot as misluk geklassifiseer sou wees. Ver3 en KVB3:TB (die kumulatiewe KVB vir die drie jaar tot die totale bates) blyk uit die toetse die belangrikste onafhanklike veranderlikes te wees in die onderskeid tussen misluk en nie-misluk wanneer vrye kontantvloei in ag geneem word. Dit is insiggewend aangesien KVB3:TB ’n fiktiewe syfer verteenwoordig, sou die maatskappy ’n bedrag wat gelyk is aan waardevermindering, aan vervangende investering bestee het.

Since Ricardo's nineteenth-century suggestion that the mean's of financing government spending is irrelevant, theoretical debate concerning the burden of government debt has been vigorous / Thesis (M.Econ.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.

International studies of part-time employment have shown that most part-time workers are women, and specifically married women (Rosenfeld and Birkelund 1995; Caputo and Cianni 2001). The ability to work part-time enables women who have household commitments, such as caring for children, to maintain an attachment to the labour force and to preserve job skills while also undertaking household labour (Long and Jones 1981; Rosenfeld and Birkelund 1995). In many countries, therefore, the growth in part-time employment has constituted an important component of the increase in women’s work. However, part-time jobs are often considered to be poorly remunerated, offering little or no security, limited opportunities for career advancement and few (if any) benefits (Rosenfeld and Birkelund 1995; Rodgers 2004; Hirsch 2005; Bardasi and Gornick 2008). Although empirical research on South Africa’s labour markets has expanded significantly over the post-apartheid period, particularly with the introduction of nationally representative household surveys that capture individual employment data, little is known about the characteristics of South African part-time workers, or about the nature of the work these individuals perform. Using data from a selection of South Africa’s nationally representative household surveys, namely the October Household Surveys, the Labour Force Surveys and the Labour Force Survey Panel, this thesis aims to redress this lacuna. The thesis comprises four empirical chapters. The first chapter outlines the definition of part-time employment adopted throughout the study, and it presents gendered trends in part-time employment in South Africa from 1995 to 2006. The descriptive analysis shows that most part-time workers in South Africa are women, and further, that the growth in female part-time employment has been an important part of the feminisation of the labour force in South Africa. The second chapter compares part-time and full-time wage (salaried) employment. The main analytical question addressed in this chapter is whether women are penalised for working part-time. Although hourly wages in part-time employment are, on average, lower than in full-time employment, the study demonstrates that after controlling for differences in observable and unobservable characteristics, women in part-time employment receive a wage premium. The third chapter explores heterogeneity among part-time wage workers, distinguishing between women who choose to work part-time and women who report wanting to work longer hours. Key findings of this chapter are that a wage premium persists for women both in voluntary and in involuntary part-time work; but that involuntary part-time workers have a stronger labour force attachment than voluntary part-time workers. The fourth chapter uses the distinction between part-time and full-time employment to investigate changes in the gender wage gap in employment. The results show that the total gender gap in wages among part-time and full-time workers has fallen over the years, with the greatest reduction visible for those working part-time. The final chapter summarises the main findings of the thesis and it outlines avenues for further research on part-time employment in South Africa. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2009. / UKZN Economics department; Economic Research South Africa; UKZN Doctoral Scholarship Award

This study examines how the South African government's expenditure on social services impacts on the poverty levels in the country. To provide a background on poverty, different concepts and views on the subject are reviewed and then the nature and distribution of poverty in South Africa are discussed. In post-apartheid South Africa, the thrust of macroeconomic framework and corresponding policies implemented by the democratic government have been geared towards poverty alleviation, employment creation and national output expansion (economic growth). This study examines the trends in government expenditure on social services and uses econometric analyses to further investigate the effects of government spending on social services on the poverty levels in South Africa. Economic growth and employment opportunities will have to exist and complement fiscal redistribution to enable the poor lift themselves out of poverty in the long run. Improved targeting methods that correctly identify the poor could also ensure that social spending reaches the intended poor, thus narrowing the gap between macro policies and the poor, and preventing a waste of resources. Various poverty alleviation measures have been implemented, of which redistribution through the budgetary policy is an important one. As part of its package towards addressing the poverty problem, the post-apartheid government in South Africa has consistently been injecting considerable amounts of resources on inter alia, education, housing, welfare and health services. The initial results indicate that fiscal redistribution on its own is inadequate in combating poverty in South Africa. Models that incorporate economic growth and unemployment show that expenditure on social services do impact on poverty alleviation, in particular expenditure on housing, education and welfare. Further regression analyses show that poverty can be tackled through economic growth and employment creation. In short, there cannot be significant fiscal redistribution unless the South African economy registers high levels of economic growth and job creation. / Thesis (M.Comm.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

Approximately 98 % of South African exports are conveyed by sea. The volume of South Africa's sea trade represents approximately 3,5 percent of world seaborne trade in tonnage terms, a performance that placed the country on the map of international maritime nations. The major portion of South Africa's dry-bulk exports is shipped from the port of Richards Bay. Richards Bay is the seventh largest world port in terms of cargo volumes, and handles in excess of 80 million tons per annum. This represents approximately 57 % of all South African seaborne trade by volume. The greater portion of South African seaborne trade, especially on the export side consists of shipments of primary (raw) products or beneficiated primary products, and accounts for approximately 140 million tons of all cargoes. The export of primary products or commodities is a vital part of the South African economy and generates a substantial amount of the country's foreign exchange. This dissertation concludes that shipment on FOB terms continues to command the lion's share of all export consignments handled in the port. In fact from the more than 78 million tons of cargo covered in the survey, more than 64 million is shipped on FOB terms, which constitute in cargo volumes approximately 82% of all exported commodities from the Port of Richards Bay. The high incidence of shipments on FOB terms leaves the final arrangement of shipping in the hands of foreign buyers. This represents a substantial loss of revenue in invisible earnings for the country's service account of the balance of payments. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.

The study aims to research the performance of past and present motor industry policy in South Africa - with special reference to Phase VI of the local content programme and the Motor Industry Development programme (MIDP) - in the light of the domestic macroeconomic environment and global developments in the world automotive industry. The overall objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the debate on motor industry policy which concerns what future policy would be appropriate for the development of a viable and competitive motor vehicle industry. Thus this study is primarily policy-oriented, and the empirical analysis produced deals with important developments in the local motor and component industries and attempts to examine key variables to establish the likely impact of industry-specific policy changes - both past and future. The method of investigation involves the study of relevant theoretical literature regarding domestic automotive policy, and considers policies of low-volume automobile producing economies, especially Australia, Philippines, India and Malaysia. Also, empirical data of various sub-sectors of manufacturing in South Africa were examined and compared to the motor vehicle sector in order to determine the extent to which the macroeconomic state of the domestic economy as distinct from automotive policy might explain the performance of the South African motor industry. The dissertation presents a review of the local content programme of motor industry policy in South Africa since the early 1960s. It examines the claim that import-substituting policy in the motor industry actually had a negative impact on the country's balance of payments. The study finds questionable whether local content policy contributed significantly to the large net foreign exchange usage by the motor industry in real terms. There is evidence that increases in the nominal industry trade deficit can largely be explained by the weakening of the Rand, especially during the mid-1980s. Also, empirical data was used to make an examination of the performance of automotive exports under Phase VI and the MIDP in the context of economy-wide trade liberalization. It was found that exports of automotive products grew significantly under both Phase VI and the MIDP in real Rand terms. Thus, it seems probable that industry-specific policy played a major role in the strong export performance of the sector since the late 1980s through to the 1990s. The study then reviews the revised version of the impact of the MIDP and considers the future of the industry. The state of the domestic macroeconomic environment and globalization of the international automobile industry, including the influence of Transnational Corporations' (TNCs') strategies, will undoubtedly determine the future direction of South Africa's automotive sector. In the short to medium term, we might expect an increase in imported vehicles and some rationalization of the industry. Over the longer term, the possibility of fewer OEMs and component suppliers, and automotive exports are likely to rise as trade and the inflow of foreign investment accelerates due to foreign collaboration and global competition. A simple theoretical model applicable to the South African automotive industry attempts to show the welfare implications of a protective automotive regime (similar to Phase VI) and compares it with that of a more liberal (tariffs-only) automotive regime that may be considered as a likely policy-option for South Africa post-MIDP. The theoretical analysis indicates that the tariffs-only policy is superior to that of a more protective regime in that static efficiency losses are lower. However, the dynamic effects of such policy changes and of possible TNC responses to them, which are referred to in the previous paragraph, are not included in this simple model. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Durban-Westville, 2001.

Sub-Saharan Africa is marginalised in the world economy and lags behind other developing regions in world trade. This is attributable to sub-Saharan Africa's inability to industrialise and diversify its exports base. Sub-Saharan Africa is still largely dependent on the exports of primary commodities, and agriculture is a vital export sector for many Sub-Saharan African economies with the majority of their exports reliant on traditional commodities. Most countries in the sub-Saharan African region have low levels of agricultural output and food security problems. Against this background, this study first discusses the problems associated with primary commodity dependence and then examines the need and economic rationale for sub-Saharan Africa to diversify its exports from agriculture into other sectors. From this, it follows that, diversifying agricultural production and exports into organic produce could be one way to create a more sustainable development path for sub-Saharan African trade and food security. With this in mind, this study discusses the economic viability, including the policy considerations, for organic product diversification in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, to ascertain the empirical position of this study, a statistical assessment of the supply-side food security situation in three sub-Saharan African major organic converters and exporters (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) is presented. The empirical results indicate that among the three countries, considering data trends and variances, Uganda's food security outlook is the most optimistic. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

No abstract available. / Thesis (M.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2007.

Since China's introduction of economic reform and adoption of market-oriented programs, more and more people are going into business. China registered an average annual GDP growth of over 8% in the past ten years. Moreover, during the past ten years (1995-2005), the number of women-owned businesses in China has increased significantly, and these businesses are just as successful as those owned by men. With an increasing number of them participating, women have become a major force in China's economic development, even in Shaanxi. The need for a better understanding of this emerging economy and of women entrepreneurs in small firm motivated the researcher to undertake this study. Moreover, this study was guided by the following research objectives: Primary objectives • Determine the motivations underpinning entry of women into small business in Shaanxi • Examine the barriers and challenges that female entrepreneurs face and how can these be addressed • Examine the contribution of female entrepreneurs to the regional development of the province with regard to employment • Consider the determinants of the employment growth of women-owned business as in Shaanxi • Examine the determinants of the performance of female entrepreneurs in Shaanxi • Make suggestions regarding further research on entrepreneurship development in Shaanxi province, China • Examine whether source of funding is associated with the education of the entrepreneurs. Secondary objectives • Examine whether perceptions of support for women entrepreneurs vary with marital status and education. • Examine whether perceptions of support for women entrepreneurs vary with training and networks. • Examine whether belonging to a business network is related to the marital status and education of the women entrepreneurs. According to surveyed entrepreneurs, the quest for personal development (pull) and a feeling of not "fit in" with the organisation (push) are two main factors which motivated women to go into business as self-employed persons. The main barriers to them start-up in business are availability of funds and family support. Problems still exist, but women entrepreneurs made a great contribution to Shaanxi's provincial economic development, especially in terms of employment creation opportunities. The regression analysis shows that education and experience of the entrepreneurs contribute significantly to employment growth. Moreover, efficient business networks, availability of funding with training opportunities and the support from government are seemingly rather weak in Shaanxi, China. Results of the hypotheses tests indicate that training, networks, business location, family member employees and prior working experience of the women entrepreneurs contribute significantly to better performance in business. / Thesis (M.Comm.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2008.

This thesis comprises three essays on “The Economic impact of adult mortality and morbidity on smallholder farm households in Malawi.” The first essay estimates the levels of technical efficiency of AIDS-affected and non-affected smallholder farm households, and examines the technical efficiency differentials. The study uses time-varying and timeinvariant inefficiency models of production. The results show that among both female and male headed households, for both affected and non-affected households, fertilizer and seeds are the only variables that contribute significantly towards technical efficiency. The mean efficiency levels of affected and non-affected households are statistically not different. The second essay examines the maize production differentials between AIDS-affected and nonaffected farm households using the difference in difference estimation method. The results show that, for both affected and non-affected households, the mean maize production levels are higher during 2006/07 compared to 2004/05 However, the difference between the mean maize production levels of affected and non-affected households over the 2004/05 and 2006/07 period is not statistically significant. The third essay examines the coping strategies used by households facing food security problems. The results from the multinomial logistic model show that during 2004/05 and 2006/07, the most dominant coping strategy used by both AIDS-affected and non-affected households facing food security problems, is buying food from market. This is followed by casual labour, obtaining food from relatives and friends, eating unripe maize before harvest, and irrigation farming. The results from logistic discriminant analysis function indicate that, for all households, ordinary coping strategies are dominant among food-insecure households with a total score of close to 80 percent, much higher than survival strategies at around 20 percent during 2004/05. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2011.