Intra-industry trade is a recent development in international trade theory. This study attempts, for the first time, to measure the extent of intra-industry trade in South Africa. It is found that approximately a one-third of total South African trade is of the intra-industry type. The first chapter places theoretical developments accounting for intra-industry trade in relation to the conventional models of trade. This chapter is followed by a detailed coverage of seven models that allow for intra-industry trade, in order to ascertain the major determinants of intra-industry trade. A third chapter examines the "existence problem" and discusses measures of intra-industry trade and a fourth chapter estimates the level of intra-industry trade in South Africa. Statistical analyses of the major determinants of intra-industry trade were generally successful, except for the poor performance of product differentiation proxies. A final chapter concerns the commercial policy and welfare aspects of intra-industry trade, concluding that there are gains to be had, from social and political changes within South Africa, if such changes lead to greater economic integration and cooperation in the Southern Africa region. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, 1987.

In this thesis, I analyse the gender earnings gap in South Africa using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, for the period between 2001 and 2005. In addition to providing estimates of the gender earnings differential at the mean of the wage distribution (using a pooled regression), I also provide quantile regression estimates to account for the gap at different points of the distribution. To further explore reasons for the gender earnings gap, I separate the male and female earnings equations and employ a decomposition technique. This allows me to determine the proportion of the gap that is not explained by differences in observable characteristics between men and women. The 'unexplained' part of the earnings gap is suggestive of gender discrimination in the labour market. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) the pooled regression (controlling for sample selection), indicates an increase in the gender pay gap between 2001 and 2005. In turn, the quantile regression estimates for the period also illustrate a widening gender earnings differential throughout the distribution, except at the mean. By contrast, the descriptive statistics and the separated male and female earnings estimations show a decrease in the earnings gap over the period. Given that the pooled regression assumes the same returns to observable characteristics for males and females, which I reject through the use of a Chow test, the results from the separated estimations hold more weight. The Oaxaca (1973) decomposition on the separated male and female earnings estimations illustrates that the 'unexplained' component of the gap accounts for a greater proportion of the gap than the 'explained' component in both years. Furthermore, the 'unexplained' proportion of the gap increased in the period, while the 'explained' proportion decreased. Thus, if the 'unexplained' part of the gap is considered to be a measure of discrimination, then the data indicates an increase in discrimination in earnings between the sexes over the period 2001 to 2005, even though there was a narrowing of the gender earnings differential. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2008.

For many years economists have shown interest in studying education as a form of investment in human capital. It is widely believed that if one attains higher levels of schooling, higher financial rewards will result. This dissertation focuses on ex-ante rates of return to higher education, with particular reference to the University of Natal, Durban. Individual data on 672 undergraduate students (from six different faculties) in the academic year 2000 has been used to estimate the expected rewards they will get upon graduation. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2001.

This thesis measures the extent to which the interest rate falls after an increase in the money supply. Even though the South African Reserve Bank has as a commitment, a goal for the inflation rate to vary between a prescribed band, it still needs to be able to use active monetary policy if economic conditions require intervention. To this end it is of interest to measure the number of quarters for which interest rates remain low after the liquidity of the macro-economy improves. In the monetary literature (for example Melvin (1983)) there are methods that have been used to measure the duration of the decline in the interest rate. These models have not to our knowledge been tested using South African data. We find evidence that the monetary authorities can induce falling interest rates for approximately one quarter using appropriate monetary policy. This result was subjected to testing under alternative assumptions concerning the structure of the error term and found to be robust. This thesis argues for the first time, that there may not be a set pattern to the time path of the interest rate, and inflationary expectations may cause the interest rate to rise, however, this rise is not confined to one uniform adjustment over time, but may occur in separate discrete adjustments. This theoretical innovation and the possibility of an identification problem suggested we estimate another more general model of interest rate determination The second model we estimate is that of Mehra (1985). After a careful analysis of the data to ensure that there are no major statistical problems with the South African data, we find that inflationary expectations result in a higher interest rate especially in times of higher expected inflation. Thus, one benefit of the Reserve Bank's current policy that aims for a band between which the rate of inflation (appropriately defined) must fall, is an improved operation of the transmission mechanism. Therefore, if intervention is required, say, if the economy suffers a severe supply shock, then monetary policy can be effective. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2001.

Thesis (PhD (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / Using an econometric approach on panel data collected from 53 microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Uganda over a period of six years (annual), this study has identified the determinants of sustainability and outreach of MFIs. In addition, the study has also used survey data from 31 non-Bank of Uganda (BOU) regulated MFIs or Tier 4 MFIs, four BOU-regulated non-bank MFIs, 12 commercial banks and the BOU itself to assess the effects of financial regulation of MFIs on their sustainability and outreach. The results indicate that sustainability is positively and significantly driven by real effective lending rates and age of an MFI, and negatively by the ratio of gross outstanding loan portfolio to total assets, the ratio of average loan size to the national per capita income, the unit cost of loans disbursed, and a group-based delivery mechanism compared to an individual-based delivery mechanism. Outreach is positively and significantly driven by an MFI being a savings and credit co-operative (SACCO) compared to being a private company, effectiveness of governance, the age of an MFI, the ratio of gross outstanding loan portfolio to total assets, and the ratio of salary/wage paid to staff to the national per capita income, and negatively by the ratio of average loan size to the national per capita income and the unit cost of loans disbursed. In the short run, financial regulation negatively influences the outreach of MFIs, but positively affects their sustainability. In the long term, financial regulation positively influences both the sustainability and the outreach of MFIs. The results suggest a number of policy options. First, the MFIs should focus on the real effective lending rate, given its significance in their sustainability. Second, for a real effective lending rate to be relatively low, the rate of inflation should be low. This calls for prudent monetary policy management by the government. Thirdly, the cost of doing business should be kept low. This calls for prudence in business management by the MFIs and creating a cost-effective business environment by the government. While the results are tentative, in order to expand outreach more SACCOs should be established and the MFIs should commit more funds to lending purposes compared to other investments. Finally, before enacting financial legislation, it is important that its benefits and costs are adequately assessed to ensure that the benefits outweigh the costs both in the short and long term.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Delineating the relevant product and geographic market is an important first step in competition inquiries, as it permits an assessment of market power and substitutability. Critics often argue that market definition is arbitrary and increasingly unnecessary, as modern econometric models can directly predict the competitive effects of a merger or anti-competitive practice. Yet practical constraints (such as limited data) and legal considerations (such as case law precedence) continue to support a formal definition of the relevant market. Within this context, this dissertation develops three tools to improve market definition: two empirical tools for cases with limited data and one conceptual decision-making tool to elucidate important factors and risks in market definition. The first tool for market definition involves a systematic analysis of consumer characteristics (i.e. the demographic and income profiles of consumers). Consumer characteristics can assist in defining markets as consumers with similar characteristics tend to switch to similar products following a price rise. Econometric models therefore incorporate consumer characteristics data to improve price elasticity estimates. Even though data constraints often prevent the use of econometric models, a systematic analysis of consumer characteristics can still be useful for market definition. Cluster analysis offers a statistical technique to group products on the basis of the similarity of their consumers. characteristics. A recently concluded partial radio station merger in South Africa offers a case study for the use of consumer characteristics in defining markets. The second tool, or set of tools, for defining markets involves using tests for price co-movement. Critics argue that price tests are not appropriate for defining markets, as these tests are based on the law of one price - which tests only for price linkages and not for the ability to raise prices. Price tests, however, are complements for existing market definition tools, rather than substitutes. Critics also argue that price tests suffer from low statistical power in discriminating close and less close substitutes. But these criticisms ignore inter alia the role of price tests as tools for gathering information and the range of price tests with better size and power properties that are available, including new stationarity tests and autoregressive models. A recently concluded investigation in the South African dairy industry offers price data to evaluate the market definition insights of various price tests. The third tool is conceptual in nature and involves a decision rule for defining markets. If market definition is a binary classification problem (a product is either 'in' or 'out' of the market), it faces risks of misclassification (incorrectly including or excluding a product). Analysts can manage these risks using a Bayesian decision rule that balances (1) the weight of evidence in favour of and against substitutability, (2) prior probabilities determined by previous cases and economic research, and (3) the loss function of the decision maker. The market definition approach adopted by the South African Competition Tribunal in the Primedia / Kaya FM merger investigation offers a useful case study to illustrate the implementation of such a rule in practice. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mededingingsake neem gewoonlik 'n aanvang met die afbakening van die relevante produk- en geografiese mark. Die markdefinisie-proses werp dikwels lig op markmag en substitusie-moontlikhede, en ondersteun dus die beoordeling van 'n mededingingsaak. Markdefinisie word egter deur kritici as arbitrer en selfs onnodig geag, veral aangesien ekonometriese modelle die uitwerking van 'n samesmelting of 'n teen-mededingende praktyk op mededinging direk kan voorspel. Tog verkies praktisyns steeds om markte formeel af te baken op grond van sowel praktiese oorwegings (insluitend databeperkings wat ekonometriese modellering bemoeilik) as regsoorwegings (insluitend die rol van presedentereg). Hierdie proefskrif ontwikkel dus drie hulpmiddels vir die definisie van markte: twee empiriese hulpmiddels vir gevalle waar data beperk is sowel as 'n denkhulpmiddel om o.a. risiko's rondom markdefinisie te bestuur. Die eerste hulpmiddel vir die definisie van markte behels die sistematiese analise van verbruikerseienskappe, insluitend die demografiese en inkomste-profiel van verbruikers. Verbruikerseienskappe werp lig op substitusie, aangesien soortgelyke verbruikers neig om na soortgelyke produkte te verwissel na aanleiding van 'n prysstyging. Ekonometriese modelle maak derhalwe van data omtrent verbruikerseienskappe gebruik om beramings van pryselastisiteit te verbeter. Hoewel databeperkings dikwels ekonometriese modellering beperk, kan verbruikerseienskappe op sigself steeds nuttig wees vir die afbakening van die mark. Trosanalise bied 'n statistiese metode vir 'n stelselmatige ondersoek van verbruikerseienskappe vir markdefinisie, deurdat dit produkte op grond van gelyksoortige verbruikerseienskappe groepeer. 'n Onlangse ondersoek in Suid-Afrika rakende die gedeeltelike samesmelting van Primedia and Kaya FM radiostasies bied data om die gebruik van trosanalise en verbruikerseienskappe vir markdefinisie-doeleindes te illustreer. Die tweede hulpmiddel vir markdefinisie behels statistiese toetse vir verwantskappe tussen prystydreekse van verskillende produkte of streke. Hierdie prystoetse is gebaseer op die wet van een prys en beklemtoon prysverwantskappe eerder as die vermoë om pryse te verhoog (wat die uiteindelike fokus in mededingingsbeleid is). Hierdie klem verminder egter nie noodwendig die insigte wat prystoetse bied nie, aangesien markdefinisie dikwels 'n omvattende analise verg. Prystoetse se statistiese onderskeidingsvermoe word ook dikwels deur kritici as swak beskryf. Hierdie tegniese kritiek beskou prystoetse as eng-gedefinieerde hipotesetoetse eerder as hulpmiddels vir die verkenning van substitusiepatrone. Voorts ignoreer hierdie tegniese kritiek 'n verskeidenheid nuwe prystoetse met beter onderskeidingsvermoë, insluitend nuwe toetse vir stasioneriteit en nuwe autoregressiewe modelle. 'n Onlangse mededingingsondersoek in die Suid-Afrikaanse melkindustrie verskaf prysdata om die verrigting van verskillende prystoetse vir geografiese markdefinisie te ondersoek. Die derde hulpmiddel vir die definisie van markte behels 'n besluitnemingsreël. Hiervolgens word markdefinisie as 'n binêre klassifikasieprobleem beskou, waar 'n produk of streek 'binne' of 'buite' die mark geplaas moet word. Gegewe dat hierdie klassifikasie onder toestande van onsekerheid geskied, is markdefinisie blootgestel aan risiko's van wanklassifikasie. Praktisyns kan hierdie risiko‟s bestuur deur gebruik te maak van 'n Bayesiaanse besluitnemingsreël. Sodanige reël balanseer (1) die gewig van getuienis ten gunste van en teen substitusie, (2) a priori waarskynlikhede soos bepaal deur vorige mededingingsake en akademiese navorsing, en (3) die verliesfunksie van die besluitnemer. Die benadering van die Suid-Afrikaanse Mededingingstribunaal in die saak rakende die gedeeltelike samesmelting van Primedia en Kaya FM bied 'n nuttige gevallestudie om hierdie beginsels te demonstreer.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research explored factors underlying successful implementation of development policy. It applied new institutional economic analysis to policy-making processes viewed from the theory, methodology and practice perspectives. Two important results came out of the analysis. Firstly, policy performance depends on private actors’ optimization processes that may or may not end up in conflict with the policy prescriptions. This constitutes a major source of uncertainty. Secondly, getting the policy content right is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success. How policy actions are delivered (implemented by private agents) matters a lot. The policy maker is therefore invited to devise an appropriate mechanism design to that effect. The study proposes the Connectedness model as a normative methodology to minimize uncertainty and increase the likelihood of policy success. The model was inspired by a retroductive inference from some Rwandan living experiments in policy management, which have assisted the country to quickly recover from the 1994 Genocide of the Tutsi and achieve high economic performance in a record time. The Connectedness model defines four actors of a policy process – the politician, the policy expert/bureaucrat, the change manager/consciousness nurturer and the private actor– and describes the nature of interactions between and among them susceptible to guarantee success. The more role players are coordinated, share the same vision and implement consensus building mechanisms, the higher the likelihood for the policy to deliver according to plans. The study proposes three recommendations. Firstly, further research is needed to operationalize leadership, private sector spirit and connectedness institutions as endogenous variables in the new growth theory models. Secondly, new methodologies are to be devised to capture behaviour of individuals and the dynamic nature of policy making processes in macroeconomic modeling. Thirdly, economists and policy makers ought to value more the contribution of social science disciplines such as sociology and psychology in gathering evidence and tools to handle change effectively. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing het faktore ondersoek wat onderliggend is aan die suksesvolle implementering van ontwikkelingsbeleid. Dit het nuwe institusionele ekonomiese analise op beleidmakingsprosesse toegepas, gesien vanuit die perspektiewe van teorie, metodologie en die praktyk. Daar het twee belangrike gevolge vanuit hierdie analise voortgevloei. Eerstens, beleidsprestasie hang af van die private rolspelers se optimaliseringsprosesse wat aan die einde van die dag in stryd met beleidsvoorskrifte mag wees – of dalk nie. Dit is dus ‘n groot bron van onsekerheid. Tweedens is die regkry van die beleidsinhoud ‘n noodsaaklike maar nie genoegsame voorwaarde vir sukses nie. Hoe beleidsaksies gelewer word (geïmplementeer word deur privaatagente) is baie belangrik. Die beleidmaker word dus uitgenooi om ‘n toepaslike meganisme-ontwerp te dien effekte te skep. Die navorsingstudie stel die verbondenheidsmodel voor as ‘n normatiewe metodologie om onsekerheid te minimaliseer en die waarskynlikheid van beleidsukses te verhoog. Die model is geïnspireer deur ‘n retroduktiewe afleiding wat gemaak is na aanleiding van ‘n paar Rwandese lewende eksperimente in beleidsbestuur wat die land gehelp het om vinnig te herstel na die menseslagting van die Tutsi’s gedurende 1994 en om hoë ekonomiese prestasie in ‘n rekordtyd te bereik. Die verbondenheidsmodel omskryf vier rolspelers van ‘n beleidsproses – die politikus, die beleidskundige/burokraat, die veranderingbestuurder/bewussynsversorger en die private rolspeler – en beskryf die aard van die interaksies tussen hulle wat na alle waarskynlikheid sukses kan waarborg. Hoe meer die rolspelers gekoördineer word, dieselfde visie deel en konsensusbouende meganismes implementeer, hoe hoër is die waarskynlikheid dat die beleid volgens plan sal lewer. Die navorsingstudie stel drie aanbevelings voor. Eerstens is verdere navorsing nodig om leierskap, die gees van die privaatsektor sowel as die verbondenheidsinstellings te operasionaliseer as endogene veranderlikes in die nuwe groeiteoriemodelle. Tweedens behoort daar nuwe metodologieë geskep te word om die gedrag van individue sowel as die dinamiese aard van beleidmakingsprosesse in makro-ekonomiese modellering vas te vang. Derdens behoort ekonome en beleidmakers die bydraes van dissiplines in die Sosiale Wetenskappe byvoorbeeld Sosiologie en Sielkunde hoër aan te slaan wanneer bewyse en instrumente bymekaar gemaak word om verandering op ‘n effektiewe manier te hanteer.

Thesis (MCom)--University of Stellenbosch, 1966. / 242 leaves typed on single pages, preliminary pages i-v and numbered pages 1-230. Includes bibliography. / Digitized at 330 dpi black and white PDF format (OCR),using KODAK i 1220 PLUS scanner.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates the extent to which educational attainment, school quality and numeric competency influence individuals’ employment and earnings prospects in the South African labour market using data from the 2008 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). While NIDS is one of the first datasets to contain concurrent information on individual labour market outcomes, educational attainment levels, numeric proficiency and the quality of schooling received in South Africa, it is also characterised by limited and selective response patterns on its school quality and numeracy measures. To account for any estimation biases that arise from the selective observation of these variables or from endogenous selection into labour force participation and employment, the labour market returns to human capital are estimated using the Heckman Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach. The Heckman ML estimates are then compared to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates obtained using various sub-samples and model specifications in order to distinguish between the effects that model specification, estimation sample, and estimation procedure have on estimates of the labour market returns to human capital in South Africa. The findings from the multivariate analysis suggest that labour market returns to educational attainment in South Africa are largely negligible prior to tertiary levels of attainment and that racial differentials in school quality may explain a significant component of the observed racial differentials in South African labour market earnings. Neither numeracy nor school quality appears to influence labour market outcomes or the convex structure of the labour market returns to educational attainment in South Africa significantly once sociodemographic factors and other human capital endowment differentials have been taken into account. Though the regression results vary substantially across model specifications and estimation samples, they are largely unaffected by attempts to correct for instances of endogenous selection using the Heckman ML procedure. These findings suggest that the scope for overcoming data deficiencies by using standard parametric estimation techniques may be limited when the extent of those deficiencies are severe and that some form of sensitivity analysis is warranted whenever data imperfections threaten to undermine the robustness of one’s results. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek in watter mate opvoedingspeil, skoolgehalte en numeriese vaardighede individue se werks- en verdienstevooruitsigte in die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark beïnvloed. Die studie gebruik data van die 2008 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). Alhoewel NIDS een van die eerste datastelle is wat inligting oor individuele arbeidsmarkuitkomste, opvoedingsvlakke, numeriese vaardighede sowel as skoolgehalte bevat, word dit ook gekenmerk deur beperkte en selektiewe responspatrone rakende skoolgehalte en die numeriese vaardigheidmaatstaf. Die arbeidsmarkopbrengs op menslike kapitaal word deur middel van die Heckman ‘Maximum Likelihood (ML)’-metode geskat om te kontroleer vir moontlike sydighede wat mag onstaan weens selektiewe waarneming van hierdie veranderlikes of as gevolg van endogene seleksie in arbeidsmarkdeelname of indiensneming. Die Heckman ML-skattings word dan vergelyk met gewone kleinste-kwadrate-skattings wat met behulp van verskeie modelspesifikasies en steekproewe beraam is, om sodoende te bepaal hoe verskillende spesifikasies, steekproewe en beramingstegnieke skattings van die arbeidsmarkopbrengste op menslike kapitaal in Suid-Afrika beïnvloed. Die meerveranderlike-analise dui daarop dat daar grotendeels onbeduidende arbeidsmarkopbrengste is op opvoeding in Suid-Afrika vir opvoedingsvlakke benede tersiêre vlak, en dat rasseverskille in skoolgehalte ’n beduidende deel van waargenome rasseverskille in arbeidsmarkverdienste mag verduidelik. Indien sosio-demografiese faktore en ander menslike kapitaalverskille in ag geneem word, beïnvloed syfervaardigheid en skoolgehalte nie arbeidsmarkuitkomstes en die konvekse struktuur van die arbeidsmarkopbrengste op opvoeding in Suid-Afrika beduidend verder nie. Terwyl die regressieresultate aansienlik tussen die verskillende modelspesifikasies en steekproewe verskil, word die resultate weinig geraak deur vir gevalle van endogene seleksie met behulp van die Heckman ML-metode te kontroleer. Hierdie bevindinge dui daarop dat daar net beperkte ruimte bestaan om ernstige dataleemtes met behulp van standaard parametriese beramingstegnieke te oorkom, en dat die een of ander vorm van sensitiwiteitsanalise benodig word wanneer datagebreke die betroubaarheid van die beraamde resultate nadelig kan raak.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study analyses the relationship between mineral rent and Botswana’s economic diversification. The analysis is done by; 1) providing an overview of Botswana’s economy and development, 2) explaining the economics of minerals, 3) describing Botswana’s mineral economy, 4) examining how mineral rent is generated and utilised in Botswana, 5) analysing the economic diversification of Botswana, 6) investigating constraints faced by Botswana in diversifying the economy, and 7) concluding by offering recommendations that can assist policy makers with decisions regarding economic diversification. The economic value of minerals is measured by the rent they earn. Rent is profit above the normal return on total investment and is due to the scarcity of minerals. Management of minerals to achieve sustainability requires that rent is recovered through various taxes and be invested in economic activities that can provide income and employment for the future generation. In Botswana, mineral rent is generated from royalty payments, profit taxes and withholding tax on remitted dividends. Total resource rent was estimated at P160 million in 1979, but by the 2008/09 financial year, rent had increased by more than tenfold and was estimated at P10.56 billion. Diamond mining generates most of the rent and accounts for most of all the economic value of minerals, between 98 percent and 99 percent from 2004 and 2009. Copper nickel is the second most important resource after diamonds with a contribution that is between 1.03 percent and 1.34 percent of total resource rent in the 2007/08 and 2008/09 financial years. Coal, gold and soda ash are much less valuable from an economic perspective. In the 1973/74 financial year, the mining industry contributed about 34 percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices and a high of 48 percent in 2000/01, although contribution declined to 40 percent in 2007/08. The mining industry contributed about 90 percent to total exports in 2001. In the same year, diamonds contributed about 85 percent to total exports and about 95 percent to the mining sector’s exports. Since minerals took centre stage in the economy of Botswana, rent has been utilised to acquire foreign reserves abroad and finance development priorities such as the provision of health care, education and infrastructure. Part of the rent is also used to develop economic diversification through targeted initiatives that increase private sector involvement in economic activity. Even though that is the case, the Ogive Index shows that from 1973 to 2009, economic diversification has taken place, but at a slow pace. Slow economic diversification is a result of structural problems such as; a small domestic economy, high transportation costs, high cost of doing business, not fully benefitting from regional trade and vulnerability to transitional challenges like the economic crisis’. To overcome these problems, Botswana should benchmark in other mineral-rich countries to address internal capacity problems and production deficiencies. The country should also strive to benefit from international trade at a bilateral, regional and multilateral level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie is die verhouding tussen mineraalontginningsurplus en Botswana se ekonomiese diversifikasie ontleed. Hierdie ontleding is gedoen deur 1) ’n oorsig te bied van Botswana se ekonomie en ontwikkeling; 2) die ekonomie van minerale te verduidelik; 3) Botswana se mineraalekonomie te beskryf; 4) die manier waarop mineraalontginningsurplus in Botswana gegenereer en benut word, te ondersoek; 5) die ekonomiese diversifikasie van Botswana te ontleed; 6) beperkings waarvoor Botswana te staan kom in die diversifikasie van die ekonomie te ondersoek; en 7) af te sluit met aanbevelings wat beleidmakers kan help met besluite oor ekonomiese diversifikasie. Die ekonomiese waarde van minerale word gemeet deur die ontginningsurplus wat dit verdien. Ontginningsurplus is wins bo die normale rendement van die totale belegging en is in gebruik weens die skaarste van minerale. Die bestuur van minerale vir volhoubaarheid vereis dat ontginningsurplus deur verskeie soorte belasting verhaal word en in ekonomiese aktiwiteite belê word wat inkomste en werkverskaffing vir die toekomstige generasies kan verskaf. In Botswana word mineraalontginningsurplus uit tantièmebetaling, winsbelasting en terughoubelasting op geremitteerde dividende gegenereer. Die totale hulpbronontginningsurplus is in 1979 op P160 miljoen geraam, maar teen die 2008/09- finansiële jaar het die ontginningsurplus tienvoudig vermeerder en is dit op P10.56 biljoen geraam. Diamantontginning genereer die meeste van die ontginningsurplus en is verantwoordelik vir die grootste gedeelte van die totale ekonomiese waarde van minerale – tussen 98% en 99% vanaf 2004 tot 2009. Nikkeliet is die tweede belangrikste hulpbron ná diamante,met ’n bydrae van tussen 1.03% en 1.34% van die totale hulpbronontginningsurplus in die 2007/08- en 2008/09- finansiële jaar. Steenkool, goud en soda-as is aansienlik minder waardevol vanuit ’n ekonomiese perspektief. In die 1973/74- finansiële jaar het die mynwese ongeveer 34% tot die bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) teen huidige pryse bygedra, met ’n hoogtepunt van 48% in 2000/01, alhoewel die bydrae tot 40% in 2007/08 afgeneem het. Die mynwese het ongeveer 90% tot totale uitvoere in 2001 bygedra. In dieselfde jaar het diamante ongeveer 85% tot totale uitvoere en ongeveer 95% tot die mynbedryf se uitvoere bygedra. Sedert minerale die kern van Botswana se ekonomie begin vorm het, is ontginningsurplus gebruik om buitelandse reserwes te verkry en ontwikkelingsprioriteite, soos die verskaffing van gesondheidsorg, opvoeding en infrastruktuur, te finansier. ’n Gedeelte van die ontginningsurplus word ook gebruik om ekonomiese diversifikasie te ontwikkel deur teikeninisiatiewe wat die privaat sektor se betrokkenheid by ekonomiese aktiwiteit bevorder. Ten spyte hiervan, toon die Ogive-index dat ekonomiese diversifikasie wel van 1973 tot 2009 plaasgevind het, maar dat dit teen ’n stadige pas geskied het. Stadige ekonomiese diversifikasie is ’n gevolg van strukturele probleme soos ’n klein binnelandse ekonomie, hoë vervoerkoste, hoë sakekoste, streekshandel waaruit voordeel nie ten volle verkry word nie en kwesbaarheid vir oorgangsuitdagings soos die ekonomiese krisis. Botswana moet met ander mineraalryk lande normeer om interne kapasiteitsprobleme en produksiegebreke die hoof te bied. Die land moet ook daarna streef om op ’n bilaterale, streeks- en multilaterale vlak uit internasionale handel munt te slaan.