This study comprised of a survey of 807 students in geosciences classes at Mississippi State University to determine the perceived level of threat from eight natural hazards: hurricanes, hail, lightning, tornadoes, earthquakes, ice storms, floods, and wildfires. Responses were analyzed to detect spatial differences in perceptions of threats across the state of Mississippi for comparison. Actual occurrences of the natural hazards and preparations for dealing with these hazards were recorded by county and MEMA districts. Threat perceptions for hurricanes, ice storms, floods, and lightning showed spatial differences, whereas threats from hail, tornadoes, earthquakes, and wildfire showed no spatial differences. All perceived threats except ice storms paralleled the actual recorded occurrences of the respective hazards spatially. Preparations for each hazard included the adoption of MEMA’s Basic Plan for the entire state.

The Arab Peace Initiative (former Saudi Initiative) was officially proposed by Saudi Arabia and has been (re-)endorsed by all 22 member states of the Arab League since 2002. Israel has not officially responded to the API but rather has generally ignored and by default rejected it. This thesis examines the reasons for the Israeli rejection by analyzing the structure of the Israeli government in relation to the position of the prime minister, both normatively and descriptively, and examining public opinion as a potential enabler or constraint on policymaking. It also explores mechanisms such as threat perceptions and framing to highlight cognitive influences that negatively impacted serious consideration of the API. Qualitative interviews with expert Israelis and Arabs contribute to a deeper understanding of the Israeli perspective of the API's shortcomings. The API is unlikely to be implemented under this current government unless Israeli public opinion significantly changes in its favor.

In this thesis, I will argue that the role different types of perceived threat play is fundamental for how people can become more hostile or violent. Scholars have previously studied how threat perceptions can lead to outgroup hostilities and violent attitudes. Sometimes they have distinguished between realistic threats, those pertaining to wellbeing, safety and economic resources, and symbolic threats, related to culture, identity and values. Yet, despite previous research, systematic experimental evidence is scarce. Therefore, this thesis has attempted to answer the question of how realistic and symbolic threat perceptions affect outgroup hostilities through a novel survey-experimental design (n = 97) making use of Amazon’s MTurk for recruitment. It found that those exposed to a realistically framed threat exhibit more pragmatist attitudes, whereas those exposed to a symbolically framed threat leaned towards more vicious responses, although these latter results lacked statistical significance. This thesis found no difference in violent attitudes for these two types of perceived threat. These findings are important as they teach us how people can become more hostile, and how we can be aware of how actors, such as politicians, can use threat framing to achieve certain objectives.

The aim of this study is to analyse and critically assess the nature, scope and basis of South Africa‟s official external threat perception as it developed during the period from 1994 to 2012. Accordingly, the assessment allows for the identification of shortcomings in the current national security policy on external security threats, based on the alignment of external threat perceptions with the Government Programme of Action. Essentially what had to be determined is whether perceived official threats correspond with the actual situation. Accordingly, the main research question of the study is: What is the nature, scope and basis of the post-1994 official external threat perception of South Africa? The research problem generated four subsidiary questions: When does a security issue become a national threat? What types of threat are there? How does the South African government perceive these threats? And whose security is threatened? In responding to the main research questions, the study‟s findings note a change in perceptions during the post-Cold War era as to what constituted threats to security. The focus shifted from traditional to non-traditional threats to national security, because most current threats are non-military and transnational in nature. The analysis of South Africa‟s official external threat perception is informed by the changed views of Government towards what are considered the main threats to national security. The study concludes with key findings in response to the stated problem and with specific recommendations. The study confirmed that the nature of threats and security debates post-1994 have changed constantly with the expansion of the security agenda beyond state and military security. The official viewpoint is that South Africa at present is not faced with any military threats. Emphasis is currently placed on human beings as the main object of security. Most identified threats are transnational in nature and these relate to the illegal flow of immigrants, terrorism, organised crime, climate change (linked to food and water security), regional instability and other socio-economic threats. These threats are being perceived and articulated by Government through policy announcements and public speeches, also validated in the critical analysis of various scholars. The concept of non-traditional threats still lacks a commonly accepted definition; hence the study proposes the need for South Africa to define and outline non-military security threats in a comprehensive manner, preferably through the development of a South African External Threat Perception Framework. Developing such a framework will assist security agencies (such as analysts) and other stakeholders in providing advice and guidance to Government in identifying external security threats. This initiative could eliminate the abuse of power by various stakeholders in securitising any issue as a threat to national security, and instead divert those resources to other Government services. Provision should also be made in the form of policy initiatives on the role of military force and other agencies in addressing non-military security threats. Thus, the development of key elements of an integrated national security strategy in order to address external security issues and threats is essential. / Dissertation (MSecurity Studies)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2015 / Political Sciences / MSecurity Studies / Unrestricted

The objective of this thesis is to analyze the changes in Israeli security policy. The thesis consists of four main parts. In the first part, the factors influencing the formation of Israeli security policy such as history, religion, ideology and threat perceptions are examined. Israeli military doctrine and its offensive, defensive and deterrence strategies are identified as the most important subcomponents of the security policy. The following part analyzes the changes and continuities in Israeli threat perceptions and the implementation of the military doctrine during and after the six main wars of the War of Independence, the war against Egypt in 1956, the Six Day War, the War of Attrition, the Yom Kippur War and the War in Lebanon in 1982. In the third part, the changes in Israeli security policy during 1990s are scrutinized. With the peace process, Israel&rsquo / s existential threat perception decreased but new threat perceptions of terrorism and conventional and nuclear military buildup in the region emerged / therefore security was redefined by the Israeli political and military decision-makers. In the last part the impact of the collapse of peace process and Sharon&rsquo / s coming to power on Israeli security policy is analyzed. Sharon&rsquo / s period can be defined by offensive security strategies aiming at preventing terror which has been the top security problem since the Al Aqsa Intifada. As a result, this thesis argues that Israeli security policy did not indicate significant changes until 1990s, however during 1990s Israeli security situation and security policy changed as a response to the regional and international developments. Post-2000 period witnessed changes as well with Sharon&rsquo / s returning to offensive strategies.

The question of how armed group ideology influences its behaviour has been tentatively explored in the past decade. However, which role distinct ideological commitments play in civilian targeting has not been satisfactorily discussed thus far. This thesis turns to research on genocide and mass violence and incorporates the concepts of ‘exclusionary ideologies’ and ‘threat perceptions’ to fill this research gap. It addresses the following question: to what extent do exclusionary ideologies of armed groups influence their use of violence against civilians during civil conflicts? When revolutionary armed groups pursue their goals, threat perceptions determine which groups are considered legitimate targets for attack. Therefore, it is hypothesized that exclusionary groups will employ more violence against civilians than inclusionary groups because the former have a more expanded understanding of legitimate targeting than the latter. Through a structured focused comparison, discourse analysis and process tracing applied to the cases of Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab, moderate support for this hypothesis is found. It is shown that both armed groups to varying extents invoke threat perceptions regarding certain out-groups to legitimize and rationalise their patterns of violence. Nonetheless, a descent into indiscriminate violence by Boko Haram and data shortage of Al-Shabaab attacks warrant caution.