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xiii, 160 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / Feldstein and Horioka (1980) motivated the international finance literature by claiming a least squares regression of domestic investment rates on domestic savings rates is an informative measure of capital mobility. Their method stirred up controversy when they interpreted a high correlation between savings and investment rates as evidence of capital immobility, creating the famous Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Current research starts with the Feldstein-Horioka result and shifts focus toward measuring short and long-run adjustments to external imbalances. The literature has implemented dynamic time-series and panel estimators to test the relationship. Following recent literature, each chapter in this dissertation jointly focuses on the adjustment process of current account imbalances and the conditions required for capital mobility. The intent of this study is to show through the use of new estimation techniques previous results have been largely misguided. The starting point for this analysis is a thorough review of three key equations used in saving-investment regressions. The three models in question are an ordinary least squares model, error correction model, and an autoregressive distributive lag estimator. Each model is tested for stability, and it is found that a number of countries have an unstable relationship. One argument for the instability results is the presence of structural breaks. Previous literature has found that both variables follow non-stationary processes, but when using more powerful unit root tests and controlling for level shifts, both variables appear stationary. If each variable is stationary then previous methods assuming non-stationarity will produce incorrect inferences. Each series is optimally estimated for structural breaks, and through a mean differencing process the savings-investment coefficient is significantly reduced. Additionally, removing the exogenous breaks and using the lower frequency components allows for modeling the short-run current account adjustment process. Finally, the results are extended to measure the relationship in a panel framework using dynamic panel estimators and threshold effects. After controlling for structural breaks the coefficient decreases and exhibits a downward trend. The remaining correlation can be explained through trade openness and country size measures. / Committee: Nicolas Magud, Chairperson, Economics; Stephen Haynes, Member, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Member, Economics; Regina Baker, Outside Member, Political Science

Les pays de la région Mena ont un point commun, la recrudescence du chômage de masse des jeunes diplômés. Ce problème lié à la dynamique et à la qualité de la croissance, à une carence chronique en démocratie, cause des déséquilibres socio-économiques qui menacent la stabilité et le développement dans la région. Les PM doivent transformer leur modèle de croissance actuel peu différencié, en un modèle à productivité globale des facteurs, où l’innovation améliore de façon continue la qualité et la combinaison des facteurs et permet d’emprunter un régime de croissance endogène fondé sur le progrès technologique. Après une introduction générale, le chapitre II présente les systèmes d’innovation des PM et leurs effets sur l’emploi dans une analyse en composantes principales, et une étude en panel des déterminants de la croissance. Dans les chapitres III et IV, les effets de l'économie de la connaissance sur l'emploi des jeunes sont soigneusement étudiés par une analyse en séries chronologiques en panel pour la région MENA, d'une part, et pour l’étude du cas tunisien, de l'autre. Le chapitre V donne les principales conclusions de l’étude. / Countries in the MENA region have been recently characterized by a common feature mainly the upsurge in the unemployment of young graduates. This is due to the dynamics and quality of economic growth, a chronic democracy deficiency, and socio-economic imbalances that threaten the stability and development wihtin the region. The PM must alter their current growth framework into a total factor productivity model, whereby innovation continuously improves, allowing for an endogenous growth regime based on technology progress to take over. After a general introduction, Chapter (II) highlightst the PM’s innovation systems and their effects on employment generation in a principal component analysis, and a panel study of the determinants of economic growth. In chapter (III) and (IV), the effects of the knowledge economy on youth employment are carefully studied though a time series analysis for the MENA region as a panel on one hand and for Tunisia a single case study on the other. Chapter (V) gives the mains conclusions of the study

La présente thèse a pour objectif d'analyser le rôle des institutions sur la croissance économique, et notamment sur l'attractivité et l'effet des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Pour cela, nous avons utilisé douze indicateurs de mesure de la qualité des institutions et testé leurs effets en retenant un échantillon important de pays développés, en voie de développement et en transition. Notre démarche se décline en trois chapitres. Le chapitre 1 est consacré à l'évaluation de l'effet direct des institutions sur la croissance économique en fonction du niveau de développement des pays étudiés. Les résultats montrent que la qualité des institutions a un effet plus important sur la croissance dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire, en particulier la stabilité politique et la lutte contre la corruption. Pour les pays à revenu élevé le facteur le plus déterminant est le respect des lois et des contrats. Le chapitre 2 analyse l'effet indirect des institutions sur la croissance à travers les IDE. Les résultats mettent en évidence l'existence des seuils institutionnels qui conditionnent l'effet des IDE sur la croissance selon la situation géographique et le niveau de développement des pays. Il ressort notamment que la lutte contre la corruption et l'amélioration de la démocratie sont les canaux travers lesquels les IDE favorisent la croissance dans les pays d'Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient et d'Asie, la stabilité d gouvernement et le respect des contrats étant les plus importants dans les pays d'Europe et d'Amérique. Le chapitre 3 s'intéresse à l'effet de l'ouverture financière et du développement financier sur l'attractivité des IDE en mettant e évidence le rôle des institutions. Les résultats montrent que pour les pays qui ont libéralisé leur compte de capital, l'entrée d'IDE est plus importante lorsqu'ils disposent d'une bonne qualité institutionnelle. De la même manière, l'attractivité des IDE est favorisée par 1 passif liquide des banques et les crédits au secteur privé, mais il est moindre pour les pays dotés d'importantes ressources naturelle: Les résultats soulignent l'existence d'un seuil institutionnel à partir duquel le poids de la capitalisation boursière et des litres échangé en bourse favorisent l'attractivité des IDE. La confrontation des résultats des chapitres 2 et 3 permet d'avancer que le seuil institutionnel à travers lequel le développement financier améliore l'attractivité des IDE est plus élevé que le seuil à travers lequel les IDE impactent la croissance. Dans les pays e développement en particulier, la qualité des institutions constitue une contrainte plus sévère en termes d'attractivité qu'en termes d'effet des IDE sur la croissance. / This thesis aims to investigate the role of institutions on economic growth, specifically through the attractiveness and the impact of Foreign Direct lnvestment. For this, we use twelve measures of the institutional quality and we test their effects using a set of developed, developing and transition countries. Our approach is divided into three parts. Chapter 1 analyzes the direct effect of institutions on economic growth by level of development of countries. Results show that the quality of institutions has a greater effect on growth in middle-income countries, particularly the effects of political stability and fightinç against corruption. For high-income countries, the most important factors are respect of laws and contracts. Chapter 2 examines the indirect effect of institutions on growth through FDI. Results highlight the existence of institutional thresholds that condition the effect of FDI on economic growth by countries and by level of incarne. It appears that fighting against corruption an improving democracy are the mechanisms through which FDI promotes growth in the MENA and the Asia group, and through the respect of contracts and government stability in the Europe and the America group. Chapter 3 assesses the effect of financial openness and financial development on the attractiveness of FDI by highlighting the role o institutions. Results indicate that countries that have opened their capital account have received more FDI inflows and the effect is higher in countries with good institutional quality. Similarly, FDI attractiveness is enhanced by liquid liabilities and credit to the private sector but is lower in natural resouce endowed countries. The results highlight that countries are able to attract FDI through stock market capitalization and traded only above an institutional threshold. We highlight in this thesis that the institutional level through which financial development impact the attractiveness of FDI is higher than the institutional level through which FDI contributes to growth. ln the developing group, the quality of institutions is an important constraint in term of attractiveness than in terms of the effect of FDI on GDP growth.

Experiments on neutrino oscillations have confirmed that neutrinos have small, but non-zero masses, and that the interacting neutrino states do not have definite masses, but are mixtures of such states.The seesaw models make up a group of popular models describing the small neutrino masses and the corresponding mixing.In these models, new, heavy fields are introduced and the neutrino masses are suppressed by the ratio between the electroweak scale and the large masses of the new fields. Usually, the new fields introduced have masses far above the electroweak scale, outside the reach of any foreseeable experiments, making these versions of seesaw models essentially untestable. However, there are also so-called low-scale seesaw models, where the new particles have masses above the electroweak scale, but within the reach of future experiments, such as the LHC.In quantum field theories, quantum corrections generally introduce an energy-scale dependence on all their parameters, described by the renormalization group equations. In this thesis, the energy-scale dependence of the neutrino parameters in two low-scale seesaw models, the low-scale type I and inverse seesaw models, are considered. Also, the question of whether the neutrinos are Majorana particles, \ie , their own antiparticles, has not been decided experimentally. Future experiments on neutrinoless double beta decay could confirm the Majorana nature of neutrinos. However, there could also be additional contributions to the decay, which are not directly related to neutrino masses. We have investigated the possible future bounds on the strength of such additional contributions to neutrinoless double beta decay, depending on the outcome of ongoing and planned experiments related to neutrino masses. / QC 20110812

The standard model of particle physics can excellently describe the vast majorityof data of particle physics experiments. However, in its simplest form, it cannot account for the fact that the neutrinos are massive particles and lepton flavorsmixed, as required by the observation of neutrino oscillations. Hence, the standardmodel must be extended in order to account for these observations, opening up thepossibility to explore new and interesting physical phenomena. There are numerous models proposed to accommodate massive neutrinos. Thesimplest of these are able to describe the observations using only a small numberof effective parameters. Furthermore, neutrinos are the only known existing particleswhich have the potential of being their own antiparticles, a possibility that isactively being investigated through experiments on neutrinoless double beta decay.In this thesis, we analyse these simple models using Bayesian inference and constraintsfrom neutrino-related experiments, and we also investigate the potential offuture experiments on neutrinoless double beta decay to probe other kinds of newphysics. In addition, more elaborate theoretical models of neutrino masses have beenproposed, with the seesaw models being a particularly popular group of models inwhich new heavy particles generate neutrino masses. We study low-scale seesawmodels, in particular the resulting energy-scale dependence of the neutrino parameters,which incorporate new particles with masses within the reach of current andfuture experiments, such as the LHC. / Standardmodellen för partikelfysik beskriver den stora majoriteten data från partikelfysikexperimentutmärkt. Den kan emellertid inte i sin enklaste form beskrivadet faktum att neutriner är massiva partiklar och leptonsmakerna är blandande,vilket krävs enligt observationerna av neutrinooscillationer. Därför måste standardmodellenutökas för att ta hänsyn till detta, vilket öppnar upp möjligheten att utforska nya och intressanta fysikaliska fenomen. Det finns många föreslagna modeller för massiva neutriner. De enklaste av dessakan beskriva observationerna med endast ett fåtal effektiva parametrar. Dessutom är neutriner de enda kända befintliga partiklar som har potentialen att vara sinaegna antipartiklar, en möjlighet som aktivt undersöks genom experiment på neutrinolöst dubbelt betasönderfall. I denna avhandling analyserar vi dessa enkla modellermed Bayesisk inferens och begränsningar från neutrinorelaterade experiment och undersöker även potentialen för framtida experiment på neutrinolöst dubbelt betasönderfall att bergänsa andra typer av ny fysik. Även mer avancerade teoretiska modeller för neutrinomassor har föreslagits, med seesawmodeller som en särskilt populär grupp av modeller där nya tunga partiklargenererar neutrinomassor. Vi studerar seesawmodeller vid låga energier, i synnerhetneutrinoparametrarnas resulterande energiberoende, vilka inkluderar nya partiklarmed massor inom räckh°all för nuvarande och framtida experiment såsom LHC. / <p>QC 20130830</p>

Cette étude vise à mettre en lumière les différences et similarités existant entre les principales crises économiques et financières ayant frappé un échantillon de 21 pays avancés depuis 1981. Nous analyserons plus particulièrement la crise des subprimes que nous rapprocherons avec des épisodes antérieurs. Nous étudierons à la fois les années du déclenchement des turbulences (analyse typologique) ainsi que celles les précédant (prévision). Cette analyse sera fondée sur l’utilisation de la méthode CART (Classification And Regression Trees). Cette technique non linéaire et non paramétrique permet de prendre en compte les effets de seuil et les interactions entre variables explicatives de façon à révéler plusieurs contextes distincts explicatifs d’un même événement. Dans le cadre d‘un modèle de prévision, l’analyse des années précédant les crises nous indique que les variables à surveiller sont : la variation et la volatilité du cours de l’once d’or, le déficit du compte courant en pourcentage du PIB et la variation de l’openness ratio et enfin la variation et la volatilité du taux de change. Dans le cadre de l’analyse typologique, l’étude des différentes variétés de crise (année du déclenchement de la crise) nous permettra d’identifier deux principaux types de turbulence d’un point de vue empirique. En premier lieu, nous retiendrons les crises globales caractérisées par un fort ralentissement ou une baisse de l’activité aux Etats-Unis et une faible croissance du PIB dans les pays touchés. D’autre part, nous mettrons en évidence des crises idiosyncratiques propres à un pays donné et caractérisées par une inflation et une volatilité du taux de change élevées. / The aim of this thesis is to analyze, from an empirical point of view, both the different varieties of economic and financial crises (typological analysis) and the context’s characteristics, which could be associated with a likely occurrence of such events. Consequently, we analyze both: years seeing a crisis occurring and years preceding such events (leading contexts analysis, forecasting). This study contributes to the empirical literature by focusing exclusively on the crises in advanced economies over the last 30 years, by considering several theoretical types of crises and by taking into account a large number of both economic and financial explanatory variables. As part of this research, we also analyze stylized facts related to the 2007/2008 subprimes turmoil and our ability to foresee crises from an epistemological perspective. Our empirical results are based on the use of binary classification trees through CART (Classification And Regression Trees) methodology. This nonparametric and nonlinear statistical technique allows us to manage large data set and is suitable to identify threshold effects and complex interactions among variables. Furthermore, this methodology leads to characterize crises (or context preceding a crisis) by several distinct sets of independent variables. Thus, we identify as leading indicators of economic and financial crises: variation and volatility of both gold prices and nominal exchange rates, as well as current account balance (as % of GDP) and change in openness ratio. Regarding the typological analysis, we figure out two main different empirical varieties of crises. First, we highlight « global type » crises characterized by a slowdown in US economic activity (stressing the role and influence of the USA in global economic conditions) and low GDP growth in the countries affected by the turmoil. Second, we find that country-specific high level of both inflation and exchange rates volatility could be considered as evidence of « idiosyncratic type » crises.