La connaissance du fonctionnement hydrodynamique des karsts représente un enjeu planétaire pour la ressource en eau car ils alimentent en eau potable près de 25% de la population mondiale. Néanmoins, la complexité, l'anisotropie, l'hétérogénéité, la non-linéarité et l'éventuelle non-stationnarité de ces aquifères en font des objets encore largement sous-exploités du fait de la difficulté de caractériser leur morphologie et leur fonctionnement hydrodynamique. Dans ce contexte, le paradigme systémique permet d'apporter de nouvelles méthodes en étudiant ces hydrosystèmes au travers de la relation entre leurs signaux d'entrée (pluie) et de sortie (débit). Ainsi ce travail porte sur l'utilisation : i) d'analyses corrélatoires et spectrales pour caractériser la réponse des hydrosystèmes karstiques, ii) des réseaux de neurones pour étudier les relations linéaires et non-linéaires de ces hydrosystèmes. Pour ce faire, différents types de configuration de modèles par réseau de neurones sont explorés afin de comparer le comportement et les performances de ces modèles. On cherche à contraindre ces modèles pour les rendre interprétables en terme de processus hydrodynamiques en rapprochant le fonctionnement du modèle à celui du système naturel afin d'obtenir une bonne représentation et d'extraire des connaissances à partir des paramètres du modèle.Les résultats obtenus par les analyses corrélatoires et spectrales permettent d'orienter la configuration des modèles de réseaux de neurones. Appliqués à l'hydrosystème du Lez sur la période 1950-1967, les résultats montrent que les réseaux de neurones sont à même de modéliser les hydrosystèmes au fonctionnement non-linéaires. L'utilisation de deux hydrosystèmes variant dans le temps (la Durance en France et Fernow aux USA) tend à souligner la capacité des réseaux de neurones à modéliser efficacement les systèmes non stationnaires. Des méthodes d'ajustement en temps réel (adaptativité et assimilation de données) permettent d'accroître les performances des modèles par apprentissage statistique face à des modifications des entrées ou du système lui-même.Finalement, ces différentes méthodes d'analyse et de modélisation permettent d'améliorer la connaissance de la relation pluie-débit. Les outils méthodologiques réalisés dans cette thèse ont pu être développés à partir de l'application à l'hydrosystème du Lez dont le fonctionnement est étudié depuis des décennies. Cette méthodologie d'étude et de modélisation présente l'avantage d'être transposable à d'autres systèmes. / Improving knowledge of karst hydrodynamics represents a global challenge for water resource because karst aquifers provide approximately 25% of the world population in fresh water. Nevertheless, complexity, anisotropy, heterogeneity, non-linearity and possible non-stationarity of these aquifers makes them underexploited objects due to the difficulty to characterize their morphology and hydrodynamics. In this context, the systemic paradigm proposes others methods by studying these hydrosystems through input-output (rainfall-runoff) relations.This work covers the use of: i) correlation and spectral analysis to characterize response of karst aquifers, ii) neural networks to study and model linear and non-linear relations of these hydrosystems. In order to achieve this, different types of neural networks model configurations are explored to compare behavior and performances of these models. We are looking to constrain these models to make them interpretable in terms of hydrodynamic processes by making the operation of the model closer to the natural system in order to obtain a good representation and extract knowledge from the model parameters.The results obtained by correlation and spectral analysis are used to manage the configuration of neural networks models. Applied on the Lez hydrosystem over the period 1950-1967, results show that neural networks models are capable to model non-linear operation of the karst.Application of neural modelling on two non stationary hydrosystems (Durance in France and Fernow in the the USA) proved the ability of neural networks to model satisfactorily non-stationary conditions. Moreover, two real-time adjustment methods (adaptativity and data assimilation) enhanced the performance of neural network models face to changing conditions of the inputs or of the system itself.Finally, these various methods to analyze and model allow improving knowledge of the rainfall-runoff relationship. Methodological tools developed in this thesis were developed thanks to the application on Lez hydrosystem which has been studied for decades. This study and modeling methodology have the advantage of being applicable to other systems provided the availability of a sufficient database.

This thesis analyzed and estimated the impact of the March 1, 2018 loan to income amortization requirement on residential real estate prices in Sweden. A four variables vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used to study the relationships between residential real estate prices, GDP, real mortgage rate and consumer price index over a time period from 2005 to 2017. First, a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model was used to test how a structural innovation in the error term for real mortgage rate affected residential real estate prices. Secondly, an unconditional forecast from our reduced VAR was produced to estimate post 2017 price growth of the Swedish housing market. The impulse response function results stand in contradiction to economic intuition i.e. the price puzzle problem. The unconditional forecast indicates that the housing market will enter a period with slower price growth post 2017, which are in line with previous research. This thesis vector autoregressive model can give meaningful results with regard to trend forecasts but with regard to precise statements as anticipating drastic price depreciation, it falls short. We recommend the use of reduced VAR forecasting with regard to the Swedish housing market.

Este estudo analisa a variação dos valores do Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI) na lagoa Itapeva-RS, por meio de imagens Landsat TM5 e ETM+7, compreendendo o período de 1985 a 2010. Para a análise do comportamento espaço-temporal foi utilizado classes de Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI) e Análise por Séries Temporais (TSA) de imagens. Este estudo avalia o comportamento da lagoa com base na influência dos agentes hidrodinâmicos e sua relação com os padrões de distribuição espaço-temporal. Para validação dos padrões observados foram coletadas amostras de água em seis pontos amostrais na lagoa Itapeva para clorofila_a, Totais de Sólidos Suspensos e transparência do disco Secchi. Os resultados foram correlacionados com os valores de NDVI. Os mapas de classes de NDVI gerados após a análise da TSA evidenciaram padrões espaciais e sazonais, considerando a sua dinâmica associada as variáveis ambientais atuantes: os ventos, as chuvas, o período de floração do fitoplâncton, a concentração de clorofila_a, a profundidade da lagoa e a descarga de sedimentos pelos afluentes. Esses padrões espaço-temporais, permitiram estabelecer três grandes compartimentos para a lagoa Itapeva: norte, centro e sul. A série temporal de imagens mostrou que os valores de NDVI aumentam durante os periodos de floração do fitoplâncton no outono e primavera. As medidas in situ, mostraram baixas concentrações de clorofila_a e de Totais de Sólidos Suspensos na lagoa no dia da coleta das amostras. Os resultados gerados a partir da Análise de Séries Temporais de imagens Landsat foram satisfatórios no que se refere ao monitoramento da distribuição espaço-temporal da variação das classes de NDVI. / This study analyzes the variation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Itapeva-RS Lake, using Landsat TM5 and ETM + 7 images, from 1985 through 2010. For the analysis of the space-temporal behavior was used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) classes and Temporal Series Analysis (TSA). This study also evaluates of the lake behavior based on the influence of hydrodynamic agents and the relationships on the spatial-temporal distribution pattern. To validate the observed patterns were collected water samples from six points in the Itapeva Lake for clorofila_a, Total suspended solids and Secchi disk transparency. The results were correlated with NDVI values. The NDVI classes maps that were generated from TSA, showed seasonal and spatial patterns considering the dynamics associated with environmental variables that were actuating: winds, rains, the period of phytoplankton bloom, the concentration of clorofila_a, depth of the coastal lake and the discharge of sediment by tributaries. These spatial and temporal patterns, allowed the establishment of three distinctive surfaces in the Itapeva Lake: north, center and south. The temporal series of NDVI values showed that the phytoplankton increases only during the flowering periods in autumn and spring. In situ measures, however, showed low concentrations of Chlorophyll_a and total suspended solids in the coastal lake on the day of sample collection. The results generated from the analysis of time series of Landsat images were satisfactory with regard to the monitoring of spatial and temporal distribution of the variation in NDVI classes.

Lam, Hei Tat. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 124-131). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iv / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Time Series Prediction and Neural Networks --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- ForeNet --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Objective and Motivation --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of Chapters --- p.4 / Chapter 2 --- Background --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Neural Network Models for Temporal Data --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Representation of Temporal Information --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Elman Networks --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1.3 --- Real Time Recurrent Learning --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Recent Neural Networks Models --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Complex-valued Neural Networks --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Neural Networks working in Frequency Domain --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- ForeNet Model --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Fourier Analysis of Time Series --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Recursive Prediction Equations --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Neural Network Representation --- p.16 / Chapter 2.3.4 --- Limitations of ForeNet --- p.19 / Chapter 3 --- Analysis of ForeNet --- p.20 / Chapter 3.1 --- Analysis of Single Neuron Response --- p.20 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- General Input --- p.21 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Constant Input --- p.22 / Chapter 3.1.3 --- Sinusoidal Input --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2 --- Analysis of Network Response --- p.34 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Network response function for Sinusoidal Input --- p.34 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- General Response Function for ForeNet --- p.39 / Chapter 3.3 --- Properties of ForeNet --- p.39 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Desired Properties --- p.40 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Magnitude of Output --- p.41 / Chapter 3.3.3 --- Phase of Output --- p.43 / Chapter 3.3.4 --- Output Magnitude Correction --- p.44 / Chapter 3.3.5 --- Operating Frequency Range --- p.45 / Chapter 3.3.6 --- Symmetry of Hidden Neurons --- p.47 / Chapter 3.4 --- Analysis of Simulation Error --- p.48 / Chapter 3.5 --- Chapter Summary --- p.53 / Chapter 4 --- Multi-parameterized Model --- p.54 / Chapter 4.1 --- Network Model --- p.54 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Modified Recursive Prediction Equation --- p.54 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Complex-valued Recurrent Network Model --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Network Initialization --- p.58 / Chapter 4.2 --- Analysis of Parameters --- p.60 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Analysis of Network Response --- p.60 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Effect of Decay Factor --- p.62 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Effect of Neuron Natural Frequency --- p.66 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Operating Frequency Range --- p.66 / Chapter 4.3 --- Experiment on Single Neuron --- p.68 / Chapter 4.4 --- Experiment on Two Neuron Model --- p.70 / Chapter 4.4.1 --- Single Input Frequency --- p.70 / Chapter 4.4.2 --- Random Multiple Input Frequencies --- p.72 / Chapter 4.5 --- Experiment of Comparisons to ForeNet --- p.74 / Chapter 4.6 --- Chapter Summary --- p.76 / Chapter 5 --- Training ForeNet --- p.78 / Chapter 5.1 --- Complex Real Time Recurrent Learning --- p.78 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Learning of Output Weights --- p.80 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Learning of Input and Recurrent Hidden Weights --- p.82 / Chapter 5.1.3 --- Evaluation of Complex Sensitivity Terms --- p.85 / Chapter 5.1.4 --- Summary of Learning Rules for Multi-parameterized ForeNet --- p.87 / Chapter 5.1.5 --- Computational Complexity --- p.89 / Chapter 5.2 --- Experiment on Convergence of Error --- p.89 / Chapter 5.3 --- Experiment of Data with Mixed Frequency --- p.92 / Chapter 5.4 --- Experiment of Various Time Series --- p.98 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Experiment Setting --- p.98 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- Time Series --- p.99 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Experimental Result --- p.104 / Chapter 5.4.4 --- Analysis on Initial and Final Error --- p.104 / Chapter 5.4.5 --- Analysis on Convergency --- p.109 / Chapter 5.5 --- Chapter Summary --- p.111 / Chapter 6 --- Discussion and Conclusion --- p.113 / Chapter 6.1 --- ForeNet as a Non-recursive Response Function --- p.113 / Chapter 6.2 --- Analysis in Frequency Domain --- p.114 / Chapter 6.2.1 --- Another View of ForeNet Model --- p.115 / Chapter 6.2.2 --- Linearity in Frequency Domain --- p.116 / Chapter 6.2.3 --- Direct Estimation of Error --- p.116 / Chapter 6.2.4 --- Analytic Solution to p-steps Ahead Prediction --- p.117 / Chapter 6.2.5 --- Providing Insights to Further Extension --- p.118 / Chapter 6.3 --- Performance Evaluation --- p.119 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- Performance Measurement --- p.119 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- Time Series Used --- p.121 / Chapter 6.4 --- Conclusion: Multi-parameterized ForeNet and its frequency recommendation --- p.122 / Bibliography --- p.124

Around 2.5 million utility works (street works) occurred in England in 2016 with a construction cost of approximately £2 billion. Comparative figures for highway works (road works) are not readily available, but are expected to be similarly significant. Unsurprisingly, the volume of road works and street works (RWSW) activity in urban areas is considered to have a negative impact on the road network causing disruption and premature deterioration, blighting the street scene, damaging local business trade, and significantly increasing social, economic and environmental costs. Indeed the social costs of street works alone are estimated to be around £5.1 billion annually. Despite the economic significance of highway infrastructure, the subject of road works and street works management is under-researched, with greater research emphasis on technology-based, as opposed to policy-based management approaches. Consequently, the aim of this study was to investigate the efficiency and effectiveness of managing the business process of RWSW. Due to limited academic literature in the subject domain, earlier research focused on identifying the industry actors, their motivations, as well as drivers and barriers to RWSW management. Semi-structured interviews with industry stakeholders highlighted the industry s complexity and revealed that several issues contributed to ineffective RWSW management. Principal problems included Street Authorities (SA) failing to take enough ownership of the RWSW coordination process, highway legislation not encouraging joint working due to inherent challenges arising from reinstatement guarantees, and entrenched attitudes and adversarial practices in the construction industry encouraging silo working. The Derby Permit Scheme (legislative tool) was intended to improve RWSW management through giving SAs greater control of highway works. Accordingly, RWSW activity was tested through a statistical time series intervention analysis to separately examine the impacts of the Highway Authority (HA) led works and utility industry led works over 6.5 years. The Permit Scheme was found to reduce utility works durations by around 5.4%; equivalent to 727 days, saving between £2.1 - £7.4 million in construction and societal costs annually. Conversely, the Permit Scheme did not noticeable reduce the HA led works. Instead, the introduction of a works order management system (WOMS) to automate some of the back office road works process was found to reduce works durations by 34%; equivalent to 6519 days and saving between £8.3 - £48.3m per annum. This case study highlighted that more considered practices were required by the HA to reduce RWSW. The stakeholder study and the automated WOMS technology found that well-managed business processes tended to lead to better executed highway works on-site. Informed by these experiences, the sponsor was keen to re-engineer its internal business processes. Business process mapping was adopted to identify inefficient practices and improved coordinated working opportunities on three key internal teams involved in the road works process. Findings revealed that silo working was inherent and that processes were built around fragmented and outdated Information Technology (IT) systems, creating inefficiencies. A subsequent validation exercise found that certain practices, such as restricted data access and hierarchal management styles were culturally embedded and also common across other local authorities. Peer reviewed recommendations to improve working practices were made, such as adopting an integrated Highways Management IT system, vertical integration between the customer relationship management IT system and the Highways IT systems, and the provision of regulatory training. In conclusion, based on the finding of this study, a generic logic map was created with potential to transfer the learning to other local authorities and for their use when evaluating road works administrative processes.

Este estudo analisa a variação dos valores do Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI) na lagoa Itapeva-RS, por meio de imagens Landsat TM5 e ETM+7, compreendendo o período de 1985 a 2010. Para a análise do comportamento espaço-temporal foi utilizado classes de Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI) e Análise por Séries Temporais (TSA) de imagens. Este estudo avalia o comportamento da lagoa com base na influência dos agentes hidrodinâmicos e sua relação com os padrões de distribuição espaço-temporal. Para validação dos padrões observados foram coletadas amostras de água em seis pontos amostrais na lagoa Itapeva para clorofila_a, Totais de Sólidos Suspensos e transparência do disco Secchi. Os resultados foram correlacionados com os valores de NDVI. Os mapas de classes de NDVI gerados após a análise da TSA evidenciaram padrões espaciais e sazonais, considerando a sua dinâmica associada as variáveis ambientais atuantes: os ventos, as chuvas, o período de floração do fitoplâncton, a concentração de clorofila_a, a profundidade da lagoa e a descarga de sedimentos pelos afluentes. Esses padrões espaço-temporais, permitiram estabelecer três grandes compartimentos para a lagoa Itapeva: norte, centro e sul. A série temporal de imagens mostrou que os valores de NDVI aumentam durante os periodos de floração do fitoplâncton no outono e primavera. As medidas in situ, mostraram baixas concentrações de clorofila_a e de Totais de Sólidos Suspensos na lagoa no dia da coleta das amostras. Os resultados gerados a partir da Análise de Séries Temporais de imagens Landsat foram satisfatórios no que se refere ao monitoramento da distribuição espaço-temporal da variação das classes de NDVI. / This study analyzes the variation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Itapeva-RS Lake, using Landsat TM5 and ETM + 7 images, from 1985 through 2010. For the analysis of the space-temporal behavior was used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) classes and Temporal Series Analysis (TSA). This study also evaluates of the lake behavior based on the influence of hydrodynamic agents and the relationships on the spatial-temporal distribution pattern. To validate the observed patterns were collected water samples from six points in the Itapeva Lake for clorofila_a, Total suspended solids and Secchi disk transparency. The results were correlated with NDVI values. The NDVI classes maps that were generated from TSA, showed seasonal and spatial patterns considering the dynamics associated with environmental variables that were actuating: winds, rains, the period of phytoplankton bloom, the concentration of clorofila_a, depth of the coastal lake and the discharge of sediment by tributaries. These spatial and temporal patterns, allowed the establishment of three distinctive surfaces in the Itapeva Lake: north, center and south. The temporal series of NDVI values showed that the phytoplankton increases only during the flowering periods in autumn and spring. In situ measures, however, showed low concentrations of Chlorophyll_a and total suspended solids in the coastal lake on the day of sample collection. The results generated from the analysis of time series of Landsat images were satisfactory with regard to the monitoring of spatial and temporal distribution of the variation in NDVI classes.

Submitted by LUIZ GUSTAVO MOZA (gustavomoza@gmail.com) on 2015-05-29T15:36:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MCP_send.pdf: 680259 bytes, checksum: e66adf3e460a5e9ac1f5e329b620babc (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2015-06-01T12:22:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MCP_send.pdf: 680259 bytes, checksum: e66adf3e460a5e9ac1f5e329b620babc (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-06-12T19:14:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MCP_send.pdf: 680259 bytes, checksum: e66adf3e460a5e9ac1f5e329b620babc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-12T19:14:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MCP_send.pdf: 680259 bytes, checksum: e66adf3e460a5e9ac1f5e329b620babc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-27 / This work is dedicated to the empirical exercise of generating more restrictions on an asset pricing model with time series developed by Hansen and Singleton JPE 1983. The restrictions go from a simple qualitative increase in the studied assets to a proposed extension derived from a consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor. Estimates found for the relative risk aversion of the representative agent are as expected, in most cases, reaching values already found in literature, besides the fact that these values are economically plausible. The theoretical extension proposal did not achieve the expected results beacause it seems to improve the systemic estimation marginally. / Este Trabalho se Dedica ao exercício empírico de gerar mais restrições ao modelo de apreçamento de ativos com séries temporais desenvolvido por Hansen e Singleton JPE 1983. As restrições vão, desde um simples aumento qualitativo nos ativos estudados até uma extensão teórica proposta a partir de um estimador consistente do fator estocástico de desconto. As estimativas encontradas para a aversão relativa ao risco do agente representativo estão dentro do esperado, na maioria dos casos, já que atingem valores já encontrados na literatura além do fato destes valores serem economicamente plausíveis. A extensão teórica proposta não atingiu resultados esperados, parecendo melhorar a estimação do sistema marginalmente.

Aerosols are particles in the solid or liquid phase that are suspended in the atmosphere. They have an important influence on the atmospheric chemistry and physics, affect the tropospheric chemical composition, can reduce visibility and have important impacts on human health. Aerosols also influence the Earth’s radiation budget. Although a lot of research has been done to investigate the influence of aerosols on the climate, they remain key contributors to the uncertainties in current climate studies due to the lack of information concerning their temporal and spatial distribution. One of the parameters that is of importance to understand the influence of aerosols is the aerosol optical depth (AOD), an integral measurement of the combined aerosol scattering and absorption in the atmospheric column. The first part of this PhD describes an adapted and improved method for the retrieval of AOD values using sun scan measurements from a Brewer spectrophotometer at 340 nm at Uccle. The retrieved AOD values are subjected to a cloud screening technique and are compared to quasi simultaneous, collocated CIMEL AOD values. The good agreement between both instruments highlights that the Brewer is largely sensitive to AOD at 340 nm and it justifies its use in sun scan mode to expand the AOD retrieval network of instruments. The monthly and seasonal behavior of the retrieved AOD values is also studied in this work and our results agree with results found in literature.Another point of concern in scientific communities is the known adverse effect of UV radiation on human health, the biosphere and atmospheric chemistry. Apart from its obvious relation with global solar radiation and ozone, the amount of UV radiation that reaches the surface of the Earth also depends on the characteristics and quantity of aerosols in the atmosphere and accuracy in UV prediction can be improved if the influence of aerosols on surface UV radiation is clarified. For this reason, the second part of this work focuses on the relation between the erythemal UV dose, global solar radiation, total ozone column and AOD (at 320 nm) at Uccle. Simultaneous measurements of these variables are available for a time period of 25 years (1991–2015) and this time series is long enough to allow for reliable determination of significant changes. Different analysis techniques (linear trend analysis, change point analysis and multiple linear regression) are combined to allow for an extensive study of the relations between the variables. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Foram utilizados modelos estatísticos com base na metodologia de análise de séries temporais. As técnicas de regressão linear e médias móveis permitiram a identificação de tendências, sazonalidade e aleatoriedade, de médias mensais de parâmetros meteorológicos da cidade do Recife, capital do Estado de Pernambuco. Foram utilizadas séries históricas, abrangendo um período de dezenove anos, de janeiro de 1989 a dezembro de 2009, relativas a valores médios mensais de temperatura compensada, temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima, precipitação e umidade relativa. Os estudos sobre mudanças climáticas globais e regionais têm chamado a atenção, não apenas da comunidade cientifica na última década, mas também do publico em geral. O conhecimento antecipado das condições climáticas pode ajudar a sociedade a evitar desperdícios de recursos humanos e materiais, de forma que se possa adequar a programação de atividades, com base na previsão de demandas que dependam dessas condições climáticas. As médias de temperatura média compensada, temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima e precipitação média apresentaram tendências positivas caracterizando para a cidade do Recife, uma discreta alteração climática, mais evidente na segunda década do período estudado. Durante os 19 anos do período escolhido para a presente pesquisa, o evento climático El Niño ocorreu 9 vezes fazendo com que boa parte da comunidade científica atribua a este fenômeno a provável responsabilidade das anomalias climáticas observadas nas últimas décadas / Models based on the statistical techniques of time series were used to identification of trends, seasonality and randomness in monthly averages of the meteorological parameters of Recife city. To analyses trends it is possible to adjust linear regression and moving averages models. Were used time series data, covering a period of nineteen years, from January 1989 to December 2009, on the average monthly temperature compensated, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Studies on regional and global climate change have drawn attention not only of the scientific community over the last decade, but also the general public. Advance knowledge of weather conditions can help society avoid wasting human and material resources, so it can adjust the schedule of activities, based on forecast demands that depend on these weather conditions. Compensated average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall showed positive trends for characterizing the city of Recife, a mild climate change, most evident in the second decade of the studied period. During the 19 year period chosen for this study, the El Nino weather event occurred 9 times causing much of the scientific community to give this phenomenon the probable liability of climate anomalies observed in recent decades

abstract: Over the last two decades, Alternative Project Delivery Methods (APDM), such as Design-Build (DB), have become more popular in the construction industry, specifically in the U.S., and the competition for APDM projects has risen among construction companies. The Engineering News Record (ENR) magazine analyzes DB firms and publishes the list of the top 100 every year. According to ENR articles and many scientific papers, the implementation of DB method has grown drastically over the last decade, however, information about growth trends depending on firm size and segment is lacking. Also missing is knowledge the future market trends over the next five years. Furthermore, public agencies and DB firms may be worried that DB projects do not distribute wealth equally among DB firms. Using the top 100 firms deemed representative of the DB market, the author has divided the market into volumes based on rankings to analyze the total DB market revenue growth. A comparison between international and domestic revenues indicated that the top five DB firms have 64% more involvement in the international market compared to the domestic market. Furthermore, while the research shows increasing market share only for the top five firms, the author has found that (1) a large portion of their market share is due to a large growth in their international market, and (2) revenues for all volumes of the DB market have increased. Moreover, regression and time series analyses allow for the forecasting of the DB market growth, which the author anticipate to move from about $100B to about $150B in 2020. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Construction 2014