With accelerating globalization, many industries have faced continuous pressure from rising importation. In the forest products industry, international trade has been intervened by either a tariff on roundwood or a temporary trade barrier on wood and paper products. In this dissertation, three studies are conducted to examine the patterns and impacts of these tariffs and trade barriers. In the first study, the adoption of antidumping and countervailing duty as a temporary trade barrier on forest products trade is examined. Initially, a two-step sample selection model is employed to identify determinants of trade barrier imposition by all the countries, and additionally, by developing countries as a group. Furthermore, the effects in paper and non-paper products are separately assessed by a probit regression. The results reveal that countries with high gross domestic products per capita can file more investigations than others. For these countries with petitions, they are found to be cautious to employ temporary trade barriers, as their attention shifts from the inefficiencies of domestic firms to unfair trade actions of foreign exporters. In the second study, outcomes of antidumping and countervailing petitions and their determinants are analyzed. The outcomes from preliminary and final investigations are separately evaluated by either a binary logistic model or a multinomial logistic model. The results reveal that more affirmative injury decisions exist if petitions initiated after 2000. Since the U.S. has announced the Byrd Amendment in 2000 to protect domestic firms, the trade environment is competitive. In addition, higher-income countries are associated with less affirmative decisions on petitions because of cooperation and retaliation. In the third study, the interaction between tariffs on roundwood and temporary trade barriers on forest products is assessed. A two-stage partial equilibrium displacement model is applied to measure the vertical linkage between roundwood and wood/paper products by estimating endogenous prices, quantities, and the change of welfare after imposing trade barriers. Tariffs on roundwood and temporary trade barriers on forest products are found to have a positive total welfare impact. The implementation of temporary trade barriers on forest products brings a higher welfare change than imposing tariffs on roundwood.

This dissertation focuses on topics in areas of agricultural and food policy, international trade, agricultural markets and marketing. The dissertation is structured as three papers. The first paper, Chapter 1, evaluates the impact of agricultural trade policies. Imported shrimp, which comprises nearly ninety percent of all United States shrimp consumption, have become the subject of antidumping and countervailing duty investigations in the past decade. I estimate the import demand for shrimp in the United States from 1999-2014, using the Barten’s synthetic model. I test the hypothesis of possible structural breaks in the import demand introduced by various trade policies: antidumping/countervailing duty investigations and impositions, and import refusals due to safety and environmental issues. Results show that these import-restricting policies have significant effects on the import shrimp demand, indicating that the omission of them would lead to biased estimates. Chapter 2, the second paper, examines how the burden of state cigarette tax is divided between producers/retailers and consumers, by using the Nielsen store-level scanner data on cigarette prices from convenience stores over the period 2011–2012. Cigarette taxes were found more than fully passed through to retail prices on average, suggesting consumers pay excess burden and market power exists in the cigarette industry. Utilizing information on the attributes of cigarette products, we demonstrated that tax incidence varied by brand and package size: pass-through rates for premium brands and carton-packaged cigarettes are higher than those for discount brands and cigarettes in packs, respectively, indicating possibilities of different demand elasticities across product tiers. Chapter 3, the third paper, focuses on identifying the demographic characteristics of households buying organic coffee, by examining the factors that influence the probability that a consumer will buy organic coffee, and which factors affect the amount organic coffee purchased. Using nationally representative household level data from 55,470 households over the period of 2011 to 2013 (Nielsen Homescan), and a censored demand model, we find that economic and demographic factors play a crucial role in the household choice of purchasing organic coffee. Furthermore, households are less sensitive to own-price changes in the case of organic coffee versus conventional coffee.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / The adoption of the Southern African Development Community’s Protocol on Trade in 2000 by member states which was aimed at creating an effective free intra-trade environment, had failed to reduce trade barriers which are threatening to reverse the gains made from tariff liberalization.. The protectionism in the form of non-tariff barriers constitutes the biggest factor affecting intra-trade in the region. The new economic environment which was expected to emerge with the adoption of the Trade Protocol over a decade ago has not taken place. Some of the commitments by member states to harmonise customs procedures, co-operation in customs matters and trade facilitation are yet to be achieved as the Protocol on Trade lacks the much needed legal force as some of its articles allow room for member states to derogate from their commitments. The main objective of this research study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Protocol on Trade in the elimination of non-tariff barriers within the Southern African Development Community Free Trade Area. In order to achieve this, the study analysed the trend of non-tariff barriers reported in the period 2008 to 2013, the cost of trading across member states borders and the trend of intra-regional trade from 1996 to 2013. The main research findings indicated that non-tariff barriers are on the increase with cumbersome customs procedures and poor infrastructure development proving to be more prevalent in the region. The Protocol failed to reduce the cost of trading across member states’ borders since it came into force in 2000 with the cost of importing and exporting on the increase and the trade documentation remaining high. Again, the level of intra-regional trade as a percentage decreased from 2000 to 2013 – an indication that the Protocol on Trade failed to facilitate trade in the region through the elimination of non-tariff barriers. However, considerable potential for intra-regional trade remains unexploited due to induced trade barriers which are hampering the development of much needed regional value chains.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil (LAS) (Land and Agrarian Studies) / This study assessed the type, extent and modalities of intra-regional fish trade between South Africa and other SADC countries. Cross-border fish trade and its importance in boosting intra-regional fish trade between South Africa and the rest of SADC is poorly documented and as such, little systematic effort has been made to understand its type, extent and modalities in order to address the problems of those engaged in the activity. Regional fish trade continues to be important even though it is not always adequately reflected in official statistics. The qualitative research methodology formed the basis of this study. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with fish traders at Park City Central Bus Station in Johannesburg and in-depth interviews with selected key informants from customs, port, health and immigration officials at the Beitbridge and Lebombo border posts. Participants of the study were selected through a combination of purposive and snowball sampling techniques. Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to digitise national boundaries, border posts and the routes used by fish traders from the sources to distribution points in Johannesburg. The study adopted the new regionalism, regional integration and regional trade conceptual frameworks and attempted to apply the pro-fish trade theory as the theoretical framework.

The gravity equation is probably the most important tool in international economics to explain and estimate trade flows. However, since the gravity equation is important for political decisions, it is very important to achieve reliable results from its empirical application. Thus, it is necessary to employ the gravity equation using a theoretically and empirically proper methodology. One important discussion addresses the implausibly high measures for the impact of trade cost proxies on exports that frequently appear, especially in older works. This problem became known as the "border puzzle" (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2001). The aim of the study is to contribute to the discussion about the suitability of the gravity equation's empirical applications. The basic idea is that trade costs between two countries could additionally depend on the exports between these two countries and not only on the (more or less) exogenous proxy variables for trade costs, as they are normally used. In this study, a new theory of endogenous trade costs is provided which shows that iceberg trade costs are likely to depend on exports. An interaction between exports and trade costs (or the gravity function and a trade cost function) leads to a simultaneity problem. Moreover, this theory can be confirmed after estimating the gravity equation with an alternative econometric strategy: A simultaneous equation system using a theory-based index to compensate for the directly immeasurable trade. A further target of the study is in its use of the comprehensive trade cost index to compute "multilateral resistances" of countries to trade, introduced in the trend-setting work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). These multilateral resistances are necessary to retrieve unbiased results from empirical gravity equations. A methodology was developed to make the heretofore unknown index of multilateral resistances visible. The result of the simultaneity approach and the use of constructed data for bilateral and multilateral trade costs is that the estimated direct effects of variables influencing exports decrease. The proposed methodologies of this study could help to achieve more plausible and reliable results from the gravity equation as the "workhorse for empirical studies" (Eichengreen and Irwin, 1998) of international trade.

The gravity equation is probably the most important tool in international economics to explain and estimate trade flows. However, since the gravity equation is important for political decisions, it is very important to achieve reliable results from its empirical application. Thus, it is necessary to employ the gravity equation using a theoretically and empirically proper methodology. One important discussion addresses the implausibly high measures for the impact of trade cost proxies on exports that frequently appear, especially in older works. This problem became known as the "border puzzle" (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2001). The aim of the study is to contribute to the discussion about the suitability of the gravity equation's empirical applications. The basic idea is that trade costs between two countries could additionally depend on the exports between these two countries and not only on the (more or less) exogenous proxy variables for trade costs, as they are normally used. In this study, a new theory of endogenous trade costs is provided which shows that iceberg trade costs are likely to depend on exports. An interaction between exports and trade costs (or the gravity function and a trade cost function) leads to a simultaneity problem. Moreover, this theory can be confirmed after estimating the gravity equation with an alternative econometric strategy: A simultaneous equation system using a theory-based index to compensate for the directly immeasurable trade. A further target of the study is in its use of the comprehensive trade cost index to compute "multilateral resistances" of countries to trade, introduced in the trend-setting work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). These multilateral resistances are necessary to retrieve unbiased results from empirical gravity equations. A methodology was developed to make the heretofore unknown index of multilateral resistances visible. The result of the simultaneity approach and the use of constructed data for bilateral and multilateral trade costs is that the estimated direct effects of variables influencing exports decrease. The proposed methodologies of this study could help to achieve more plausible and reliable results from the gravity equation as the "workhorse for empirical studies" (Eichengreen and Irwin, 1998) of international trade.

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

Univ., Diss.--Kiel, 2003. / Literaturverz. S. [142] - 150.

Abstract C-Level Paper in Political Science, by David Olsson, Autumn 2008. Supervisor: Malin Stegman McCallion. “Regime Type and Trade Policy: Has Increased Democratization Contributed to Lower Trade Barriers Among Autocratic States?”   In this paper a new two-level game theory, based on previous research and deductive reasoning, is constructed and tested empirically. The purpose is to examine if developing new democracies, trading with developing autocracies, is an explanatory factor of trade liberalization among the latter. The research questions are: 1) Have tariff rates in developing autocratic countries followed the pattern of reduced tariffs among their developing new democratic trading partners? And; 2) If this is the case, is there a relative shift in trade flows that confirms this change to be an effect of the new democracies’ presumed influence?                       In order to sufficiently carry out an empirical scrutiny, seven other determinants found to have effects on trade policies in previous research, are accounted for using a “most similar systems design”. For reasons of delimitation, six autocracies and their fifteen most important trading partners, observed 1980-1999, have been paired and analyzed. Each pair consists of one autocracy that trades with new democracies and one that does not; regarding the other determinants they are as similar as possible. The used material is the World Development Indicators, the Polity IV Dataset, the Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, the World Economic Outlook Database, the Database of Political Institutions, statistics from the World Trade Organization, the Dataset of Armed Conflicts, and the Unweighted Average Tariffs Measurement.                          The conclusion is that there are no indicators that affirm the theory and research questions. However, the theory is not unambiguously falsified. Hence, studies on more countries and time spans are needed.

Magister Legum - LLM / South Africa