O objetivo geral desta pesquisa é analisar a atuação do Brasil em comércio exterior durante os anos de 2003 a 2013. Considera-se que neste período o país tem feito uso de medidas protecionistas com o objetivo de elevar a competitividade dos bens brasileiros. Este fato fica mais evidente a partir de 2011, com o lançamento do Plano Brasil Maior, dentro do qual as medidas de defesa comercial passam a integrar diretrizes oficiais do governo, em conjunto com perfurações tarifárias e aumentos de tarifas à importação. Além disso, outros programas, integrantes da política industrial e de comércio exterior, apresentam forte conteúdo nacionalista. Por outro lado, o fraco desempenho do setor industrial evidencia que, apesar do protecionismo, a indústria doméstica não consegue se restabelecer como setor dinâmico da economia. Nesse contexto, é possível afirmar que políticas comerciais que visam a combater processos de desindustrialização são paradoxais com as regras multilaterais? Para responder a esta pergunta, a análise foi dividida em dois artigos científicos. Primeiramente, é apresentada uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o tema da desindustrialização, para entender a evolução do conceito e a maneira como ele é trabalhado pelos principais autores nacionais e estrangeiros. O artigo busca incluir a política comercial, enquanto instrumento macroeconômico, nesta análise, ressaltando o seu papel nos resultados comerciais. Já o segundo artigo traz dados empíricos, a partir do levantamento das resoluções da CAMEX no período 2003-2013, com o objetivo de mapear o protecionismo da política comercial brasileira e entender se tais medidas servem ao propósito de exercer uma força contrária ao processo de desindustrialização. / The overall objective of this research is to analyze Brazilian performance in international trade from 2003 to 2013. During this period, Brazil has made use of protectionist measures in order to raise the competitiveness of its goods. It is more evident from 2011, with the launch of the \"Greater Brazil Plan\", within which the trade defense measures became part of the governmental guidelines, along with import tariff rate increases and perforations of Mercosul\'s Common External Tariff. In addition, there are other programs, within both trade and industrial policies, which present strong nationalist content. On the other hand, the low performance of the industrial sector shows that, despite the use of protectionist measures, the domestic industry could not be stablished, as a dynamic sector of the economy. In this context, is it possible to state that trade policies, which aim to fight de-industrialization are paradoxical with multilateral trade rules? To answer to this question, firstly, we present a review of the literature on the topic of de-industrialization, focusing on the definition of the concept, as well as how the main authors have used it. The article aims to include trade policy in the analysis, by highlighting its role in trade results, while a macroeconomic instrument. The second article provides empirical data from the survey of CAMEX resolutions during the years of 2003 to 2013, in order to map the protectionism content of Brazilian trade policy and to understand whether such measures serve to the purpose of exerting a counterforce to de deindustrialization process.

The main goal of this thesis is to describe and analyze activities of the World trade organization. The thesis is divided into four chapters, which are related to the WTO. The first chapter decribes the multilateral trading system. The second chapter focuses on the trade policy and its tools. The third chapter summarises activities of the GATT and WTO from its foundation to the present. The last chapter is devoted to the European Union in the WTO.

Este trabalho apresenta um sistema de trading que toma decisões de compra e de venda do índice Standard & Poors 500, na modalidade seguidor de tendência, mediante o emprego de redes neurais artificiais multicamadas com propagação para frente, no período de 5 anos, encerrado na última semana do primeiro semestre de 2012. Geralmente o critério usual de escolha de redes neurais nas estimativas de preços de ativos financeiros é o do menor erro quadrático médio entre as estimativas e os valores observados. Na seleção das redes neurais foi empregado o critério do menor erro quadrático médio na amostra de teste, entre as redes neurais que apresentaram taxas de acertos nas previsões das oscilações semanais do índice Standard & Poors 500 acima de 60% nessas amostras de teste. Esse critério possibilitou ao sistema de trading superar a taxa anual de retorno das redes neurais selecionadas pelo critério usual e, por larga margem, a estratégia de compre e segure no período. A escolha das variáveis de entrada das redes neurais recaiu entre as que capturaram o efeito da anomalia do momento dos preços do mercado de ações no curto prazo, fenômeno amplamente reconhecido na literatura financeira. / This work presents a trend follower system that makes decisions to buy and sell short the Standard & Poors 500 Index, by using multilayer feedforward neural networks. It was considered a period of 5 years, ending in the last week of the first half of 2012. Usually a neural networks choice criterion to forecast financial asset prices is based on the least mean square error between the estimated and observed prices in the test samples. In this work we also adopted another criterion based on the least mean square error for those neural networks that had a hit rate above 60% of the Standard & Poors 500 Index weekly change in the test sample. This criterion was shown to be the most appropriate one. The neural networks input variables were chosen among those technical indicators that better captured the anomaly of the short term momentum of prices. The annual rate of return of the trading system based on those criteria surpassed those selected by the usual criteria, and by a wide margin the buy-and-hold strategy. The neural networks inputs were chosen to capture the momentum anomaly of the prices on the short term that is fully recognized in the financial literature.

A presente Tese de Doutorado tem como objetivo analisar os mecanismos de implementação das decisões do Sistema de Solução de Controvérsias da OMC, consideradas como decisões adjudicatórias internacionais, na busca pelo incremento de efetividade desse sistema, e com a finalidade de proposição de um modelo para tal implementação no sistema jurídico brasileiro. O estudo adota uma abordagem dialética entre a dimensão teórica e a dimensão empírica de seu objeto, na investigação acerca das condições nas quais o Sistema de Solução de Controvérsias gera seus efeitos nos membros da OMC, bem como dos sujeitos e processos envolvidos nessa dinâmica transnormativa. A partir da análise empírica dos casos nos quais o Brasil atuou como demandante, demandado e terceira parte no Sistema de Solução de Controvérsias da OMC, e do exame da implementação por parte de seus principais usuários, a pesquisa desenvolve constatações sobre a diversidade dos mecanismos de implementação e dos efeitos jurídicos das decisões desse sistema de resolução de litígios nos diferentes ordenamentos. O trabalho procura enfrentar as complexidades de seu objeto no contexto normativo-institucional brasileiro, avaliando o tratamento casuístico, difuso e informal conferido à temática da implementação das decisões do Sistema de Solução de Controvérsias da OMC no Brasil, e confirmando a hipótese da necessidade e conveniência do estabelecimento de um marco normativo geral que institucionalize e legitime a escolha relacionada ao meio de implementação dessa decisão. / This Thesis aims to analyze the mechanisms for implementing the decisions of WTOs Dispute Settlement System, considered as international adjudicatory decisions, in the search for increasing effectiveness of this system, and in order to propose a model for implementation in the Brazilian legal system. The study adopts a dialectical approach between the theoretical dimension and the empirical dimension of its object, in the investigation of the conditions in which the Dispute Settlement System generates its effects on members of the WTO, as well as the subjects and processes involved in this transnormative dynamic. From the empirical analysis of cases in which Brazil served as plaintiff, defendant and third party in the WTOs Dispute Settlement System, and the review of the implementation by their main users, this research reveals findings about the diversity of implementation mechanisms and of legal effects of the decisions of this dispute resolution system in various jurisdictions. The thesis seeks to address the complexities of its object in the brazilian legal-institutional context, evaluating the casuistic, diffuse and informal treatment given to the implementation of the decisions of the WTOs Dispute Settlement System decisions, and confirming the hypothesis of necessity and advisability of establishing a general normative framework that institutionalizes and legitimizes the choices related to the measures for implementing these decisions.

本研究首先以資訊差異模型描述IPOs股價橫斷面與縱斷面的比較與變化。在橫斷面比較上，本研究利用貝氏定理，令投資人在擬掛牌公司釋放出歷史資訊後，首先修正其事前信念以獲得事後信念，最後再以事後有限的資訊數量推估下一期的報酬率，然因歷史資訊之數量與品質不等，下一期預測報酬率之β係數亦顯然不同。資訊結構較佳者，估計風險較低，β係數較小；資訊結構較差者，估計風險較高，β係數較大。因此，為吸引投資人對資訊結構較差之IPOs的興趣，在必要報酬率要求較高的前提下，資訊結構較差之IPOs的承銷價格必須低訂，以製造投資人可以獲利的空間。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，資訊結構較差之IPOs其掛牌初期的股價報酬率應該優於資訊結構較佳的IPOs。 其次，在IPOs縱斷面股價行為差異之模型推導上，本研究將市場IPOs區分成資訊結構佳者與資訊結構較差者，在資訊數量與發行時間成正相關的假設下，推導出當掛牌時間t趨近時，證券間之資訊差異效果遞減，且新發行證券之β係數遞減，因而進一步推論，就所有IPOs而言，後市股價報酬率將低於估計風險相對較高的掛牌初期股價報酬率。 另外，本研究之實證共分三個層次：第一層次就IPOs橫斷面股價行為方面。本研究首先就不同發行市場的IPOs之初期股價表現進行驗證。不同發行市場對擬掛牌公司之輔導期間與體質結構有不同的要求，一般而言，集中市場之發行面較店頭市場嚴格，因此，集中市場IPOs之資訊結構理論上比店頭市場IPOs佳。實證結果發現，資訊結構較佳之集中市場IPOs，其初期投資報酬率比店頭市場IPOs差。是故，實證結果支持不同發行市場之資訊結構差異假說。繼之，根據過去文獻與個案訪談的整理，若以內部人持股比、企業規模、企業年齡、承銷商聲譽、會計師聲譽與是否轉換發行市場作為單一發行市場內資訊結構優劣分際的標準時，發現，集中市場內資訊差異效果顯著；然店頭市場內，卻只有在空頭時期上櫃之IPOs，其初期投資報酬率具有資訊差異效果。 實證之第二層次為檢定IPOs縱斷面之股價變化是否亦具有資訊差異效果。首先就不同發行市場做比較，實證結果發現，集中市場因資訊結構較佳，正式掛牌前投資人與發行公司間資訊不對稱情形較不嚴重，因此，當蜜月期過後，股價逐漸迴歸真值時，掛牌一年後股價之修正幅度較資訊結構相對不佳的店頭市場IPOs小，因此，不同發行市場間，IPOs資訊結構之縱斷面差異效果獲得支持。另外，集中市場IPOs類屬資訊結構較佳者，其後市股價下修程度遠比資訊結構差者來得少。至於店頭市場之差異效果，雖然資訊結構較佳者其股價修正幅度小於資訊結構較差者，然兩者間並未達到統計上顯著差異性，因此店頭市場縱斷面之資訊差異效果並未獲得支持。 實證之第三層次，為檢定IPOs錯估訊號來源。實證結果發現，集中市場內，由聲譽較差之承銷商輔導上市及上市前每股盈餘越少之IPOs，越容易產生價格錯估行為。而店頭市場內，越是由聲譽較差之承銷商輔導上櫃或類屬傳統產業類股之IPOs，越容易產生價格錯估行為。 / The objective of this study is twofold. First, the paper develops a model to examine cross-sectionally and dynamically the effects of differential information on various initial public offerings (IPOs). Second, this paper examines the initial return and the after-market performance for IPOs, particularly the security valuation effects of structural differences in available information. There is a diversity of information among issuing firms at the time of their offering and particularly under certain trading system and certain market conditions. Through Bayesian model development, we support the effect of differential information among IPOs of structural differences. From empirical evidence, we find that during hot market conditions and under over-the-counter (OTC) trading system and for firms characterized by poor levels of available information, the market values of issuing firms are more likely to be overestimated in the immediate after-market. We also find positive overestimation of market values to be more likely for IPOs of smaller earnings per share (EPS) and those marketed by the less prestigious underwriters under Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) trading system, and for IPOs other than hi-tech securities and those marketed by the less prestigious underwriters under OTC trading system.

The Feature-Oriented Requirements Modelling (FORM) combines the requirement engineering style structuring of requirements documents with the feature-orientation of the Feature Oriented Software Development, resulting in a feature-oriented model of the functional requirements of a system-under-development (SUD). A feature is a distinguishable unit of added value to the SUD. The objectives of FORM are to model features as independent modules, to allow the addition of new features with minimal changes to the existing features, and to enable automatic generation and checking of properties like correctness, consistency, and non-determinism. FORM structures requirements into three models: a domain model, a collection of behavioural models, and a collection of functional models. A feature is modelled by a distinct behavioural model. This dissertation evaluates FORM by applying it to a new application that can be thought of in terms of features, namely an online trading system (OTS) that receives requests from customers about buying or selling securities on a stock market. The OTS offers variability in terms of the types of orders that customers can request, (e.g. market order, limit order and stop order). The case study revealed six deficiencies of the FORM notation, three of which were easily overcome. The dissertation presents the results of the case study, resolutions to three of the six deficiencies, and an outline of an approach to resolve the other three deficiencies.

The Feature-Oriented Requirements Modelling (FORM) combines the requirement engineering style structuring of requirements documents with the feature-orientation of the Feature Oriented Software Development, resulting in a feature-oriented model of the functional requirements of a system-under-development (SUD). A feature is a distinguishable unit of added value to the SUD. The objectives of FORM are to model features as independent modules, to allow the addition of new features with minimal changes to the existing features, and to enable automatic generation and checking of properties like correctness, consistency, and non-determinism. FORM structures requirements into three models: a domain model, a collection of behavioural models, and a collection of functional models. A feature is modelled by a distinct behavioural model. This dissertation evaluates FORM by applying it to a new application that can be thought of in terms of features, namely an online trading system (OTS) that receives requests from customers about buying or selling securities on a stock market. The OTS offers variability in terms of the types of orders that customers can request, (e.g. market order, limit order and stop order). The case study revealed six deficiencies of the FORM notation, three of which were easily overcome. The dissertation presents the results of the case study, resolutions to three of the six deficiencies, and an outline of an approach to resolve the other three deficiencies.

Este trabalho apresenta um sistema de trading que toma decisões de compra e de venda do índice Standard & Poors 500, na modalidade seguidor de tendência, mediante o emprego de redes neurais artificiais multicamadas com propagação para frente, no período de 5 anos, encerrado na última semana do primeiro semestre de 2012. Geralmente o critério usual de escolha de redes neurais nas estimativas de preços de ativos financeiros é o do menor erro quadrático médio entre as estimativas e os valores observados. Na seleção das redes neurais foi empregado o critério do menor erro quadrático médio na amostra de teste, entre as redes neurais que apresentaram taxas de acertos nas previsões das oscilações semanais do índice Standard & Poors 500 acima de 60% nessas amostras de teste. Esse critério possibilitou ao sistema de trading superar a taxa anual de retorno das redes neurais selecionadas pelo critério usual e, por larga margem, a estratégia de compre e segure no período. A escolha das variáveis de entrada das redes neurais recaiu entre as que capturaram o efeito da anomalia do momento dos preços do mercado de ações no curto prazo, fenômeno amplamente reconhecido na literatura financeira. / This work presents a trend follower system that makes decisions to buy and sell short the Standard & Poors 500 Index, by using multilayer feedforward neural networks. It was considered a period of 5 years, ending in the last week of the first half of 2012. Usually a neural networks choice criterion to forecast financial asset prices is based on the least mean square error between the estimated and observed prices in the test samples. In this work we also adopted another criterion based on the least mean square error for those neural networks that had a hit rate above 60% of the Standard & Poors 500 Index weekly change in the test sample. This criterion was shown to be the most appropriate one. The neural networks input variables were chosen among those technical indicators that better captured the anomaly of the short term momentum of prices. The annual rate of return of the trading system based on those criteria surpassed those selected by the usual criteria, and by a wide margin the buy-and-hold strategy. The neural networks inputs were chosen to capture the momentum anomaly of the prices on the short term that is fully recognized in the financial literature.

The European Union’s climate mitigation is highly dependent on member state compliance with EU climate policy. This paper therefore investigates the effect of different factors on national compliance with the EU’s emission target of a 20 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990. This target is further divided into additional ones, covering different sectors: a 21 percent reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 compared to 2005 in the sectors covered by the Emissions Trading System (ETS), and differentiated targets for each member state under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) during the same period. Common operationalizations of compliance in quantitative research are associated with problems since the available data mostly concern policy output. This paper measures compliance in terms of outcome instead, by comparing the emission targets to the actual reductions made by the member states. The results indicate that compliance with the nation-specific targets in the ESD sector is mostly decided by how much a state is required to reduce their emissions. Regarding the ETS target, compliance appears somewhat likelier in member states where a larger share of citizens are members of an environmental organization, and a little more unlikely in states where the industry contributes economically with a larger share of GDP.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / The problem that this Research Paper is aiming to examine is whether the Bali Agreement has successfully impacted on the consensus pitfalls and the Doha Round stalemate as shown in the background to the study. / National Bursary and Grants Agency (ANBG)