Supplying the right amount of taxis in the right place at the right time is very important for taxi companies. In this paper, the machine learning model Taxi Demand Net (TDNet) is presented which predicts short-term taxi demand in different zones of a city. It is based on WaveNet which is a causal dilated convolutional neural net for time-series generation. TDNet uses historical demand from the last years and transforms features such as time of day, day of week and day of month into 26-hour taxi demand forecasts for all zones in a city. It has been applied to one city in northern Europe and one in South America. In northern europe, an error of one taxi or less per hour per zone was achieved in 64% of the cases, in South America the number was 40%. In both cities, it beat the SARIMA and stacked ensemble benchmarks. This performance has been achieved by tuning the hyperparameters with a Bayesian optimization algorithm. Additionally, weather and holiday features were added as input features in the northern European city and they did not improve the accuracy of TDNet.

This thesis offers a thorough investigation into the application of machine learning algorithms for predicting the presence of vehicles in a traffic setting. The research primarily focuses on enhancing vehicle simulation by employing data-driven traffic prediction methods. The study approaches the problem as a binary classification task. Various supervised learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Logistic Regression (LogReg) were evaluated and tested. The thesis encompasses six distinct implementations, each involving different combinations of algorithms, feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and data splitting. The performance of each model was assessed using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, and visualizations like ROC-AUC curves were used to gain insights into their discrimination capabilities. While the RF model achieved the highest accuracy at 97%, the AUC score of Combination 2 (RF+GB) suggests that this ensemble model could strike a better balance between high accuracy (86%) and effective class separation (99%). Ultimately, the study identifies an ensemble model as the preferred choice, leading to significant improvements in prediction accuracy. The research also explores working on the problem as a time-series prediction task, exploring the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (Auto-ARIMA) models. However, we found that this approach was impractical due to the dataset’s discrete and non-sequential nature. This research contributes to the advancement of vehicle simulation and traffic forecasting, demonstrating the potential of machine learning in addressing complex real-world scenarios.

Forecasting of highway traffic is a common practice for real traffic information system, and is of vital importance to traffic management and control on highways. As a typical time-series forecasting task, we want to propose a deep learning model to map the historical sensory traffic values (e.g., speed, flow) to future traffic forecasts. Prevailing traffic forecasting methods focus on the graph representation of the urban road. However, compared to the dense connectivity of urban road networks, highway traffic flows normally run on road segments of serial topology. This indicates that the highway traffic flows do not have the same type of spatial interaction, therefore motivating us to resort to a new forecasting paradigm. While traffic patterns can be intuitively represented by spatial-temporal (ST) images, this study transforms the traffic forecasting task into the conditional image generation task. Our approach explores the inherent properties of ST-images from the perspectives of physical meaning and traffic dynamics. An innovative deep learning based architecture is designed to process the ST-image, and a diffusion model is trained to obtain traffic forecasts by generating future ST-image based on the historical STimages. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the architecture in processing ST-image through ablation studies and the effectiveness of the model through comparison with popular baseline models, i.e., LSTM and T-GCN. / Prognos av vägtrafik är en vanlig praxis för riktiga trafikinformationssystem och är av vital betydelse för trafikhantering och kontroll på motorvägar. Som en typisk tidsserieförutsägelseuppgift vill vi föreslå en djupinlärningsmodell för att kartlägga historiska sensoriska trafikvärden (t.ex. hastighet, flöde) till framtida trafikprognoser. Rådande trafikprognosmetoder fokuserar på grafrepresentationen av stadsvägar. Jämfört med den täta anslutningen av stadsvägnät, löper motorvägstrafik normalt på vägsegment med seriell topologi. Detta indikerar att motorvägstrafikflöden inte har samma typ av rumslig interaktion, vilket motiverar oss att använda en ny prognosparadigm. Medan trafikmönster intuitivt kan representeras av spatial-temporala (ST) bilder, omvandlar denna studie trafikprognosuppgiften till en uppgift för betingad bildgenerering. Vår metod utforskar de inneboende egenskaperna hos ST-bilder från perspektiven fysisk betydelse och trafikdynamik. En innovativ djupinlärningsbaserad arkitektur är utformad för att behandla STbilden, och en diffusionsmodell tränas för att erhålla trafikprognoser genom att generera framtida ST-bilder baserat på historiska ST-bilder. Vi demonstrerar effektiviteten hos arkitekturen genom avbränningsstudier och modellens effektivitet genom jämförelse med populära baslinjemodeller, dvs. LSTM och T-GCN.

Abstracts in English, Afrikaans and Northern Sotho / More time series forecasting methods were researched and made available in recent years. This is mainly due to the emergence of machine learning methods which also found applicability in time series forecasting. The emergence of a variety of methods and their variants presents a challenge when choosing appropriate forecasting methods. This study explored the performance of four advanced forecasting methods: autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA); artificial neural networks (ANN); support vector machines (SVM) and regression models with ARIMA errors. To improve their performance, bagging was also applied. The performance of the different methods was illustrated using South African air passenger data collected for planning purposes by the Airports Company South Africa (ACSA). The dissertation discussed the different forecasting methods at length. Characteristics such as strengths and weaknesses and the applicability of the methods were explored. Some of the most popular forecast accuracy measures were discussed in order to understand how they could be used in the performance evaluation of the methods. It was found that the regression model with ARIMA errors outperformed all the other methods, followed by the ARIMA model. These findings are in line with the general findings in the literature. The ANN method is prone to overfitting and this was evident from the results of the training and the test data sets. The bagged models showed mixed results with marginal improvement on some of the methods for some performance measures. It could be concluded that the traditional statistical forecasting methods (ARIMA and the regression model with ARIMA errors) performed better than the machine learning methods (ANN and SVM) on this data set, based on the measures of accuracy used. This calls for more research regarding the applicability of the machine learning methods to time series forecasting which will assist in understanding and improving their performance against the traditional statistical methods / Die afgelope tyd is verskeie tydreeksvooruitskattingsmetodes ondersoek as gevolg van die ontwikkeling van masjienleermetodes met toepassings in die vooruitskatting van tydreekse. Die nuwe metodes en hulle variante laat ʼn groot keuse tussen vooruitskattingsmetodes. Hierdie studie ondersoek die werkverrigting van vier gevorderde vooruitskattingsmetodes: outoregressiewe, geïntegreerde bewegende gemiddeldes (ARIMA), kunsmatige neurale netwerke (ANN), steunvektormasjiene (SVM) en regressiemodelle met ARIMA-foute. Skoenlussaamvoeging is gebruik om die prestasie van die metodes te verbeter. Die prestasie van die vier metodes is vergelyk deur hulle toe te pas op Suid-Afrikaanse lugpassasiersdata wat deur die Suid-Afrikaanse Lughawensmaatskappy (ACSA) vir beplanning ingesamel is. Hierdie verhandeling beskryf die verskillende vooruitskattingsmetodes omvattend. Sowel die positiewe as die negatiewe eienskappe en die toepasbaarheid van die metodes is uitgelig. Bekende prestasiemaatstawwe is ondersoek om die prestasie van die metodes te evalueer. Die regressiemodel met ARIMA-foute en die ARIMA-model het die beste van die vier metodes gevaar. Hierdie bevinding strook met dié in die literatuur. Dat die ANN-metode na oormatige passing neig, is deur die resultate van die opleidings- en toetsdatastelle bevestig. Die skoenlussamevoegingsmodelle het gemengde resultate opgelewer en in sommige prestasiemaatstawwe vir party metodes marginaal verbeter. Op grond van die waardes van die prestasiemaatstawwe wat in hierdie studie gebruik is, kan die gevolgtrekking gemaak word dat die tradisionele statistiese vooruitskattingsmetodes (ARIMA en regressie met ARIMA-foute) op die gekose datastel beter as die masjienleermetodes (ANN en SVM) presteer het. Dit dui op die behoefte aan verdere navorsing oor die toepaslikheid van tydreeksvooruitskatting met masjienleermetodes om hul prestasie vergeleke met dié van die tradisionele metodes te verbeter. / Go nyakišišitšwe ka ga mekgwa ye mentši ya go akanya ka ga molokoloko wa dinako le go dirwa gore e hwetšagale mo mengwageng ye e sa tšwago go feta. Se k e k a le b a k a la g o t šwelela ga mekgwa ya go ithuta ya go diriša metšhene yeo le yona e ilego ya dirišwa ka kakanyong ya molokolokong wa dinako. Go t šwelela ga mehutahuta ya mekgwa le go fapafapana ga yona go tšweletša tlhohlo ge go kgethwa mekgwa ya maleba ya go akanya. Dinyakišišo tše di lekodišišitše go šoma ga mekgwa ye mene ya go akanya yeo e gatetšego pele e lego: ditekanyotshepelo tšeo di kopantšwego tša poelomorago ya maitirišo (ARIMA); dinetweke tša maitirelo tša nyurale (ANN); metšhene ya bekthara ya thekgo (SVM); le mekgwa ya poelomorago yeo e nago le diphošo tša ARIMA. Go kaonafatša go šoma ga yona, nepagalo ya go ithuta ka metšhene le yona e dirišitšwe. Go šoma ga mekgwa ye e fepafapanego go laeditšwe ka go šomiša tshedimošo ya banamedi ba difofane ba Afrika Borwa yeo e kgobokeditšwego mabakeng a dipeakanyo ke Khamphani ya Maemafofane ya Afrika Borwa (ACSA). Sengwalwanyaki šišo se ahlaahlile mekgwa ya kakanyo ye e fapafapanego ka bophara. Dipharologanyi tša go swana le maatla le bofokodi le go dirišega ga mekgwa di ile tša šomišwa. Magato a mangwe ao a tumilego kudu a kakanyo ye e nepagetšego a ile a ahlaahlwa ka nepo ya go kwešiša ka fao a ka šomišwago ka gona ka tshekatshekong ya go šoma ga mekgwa ye. Go hweditšwe gore mokgwa wa poelomorago wa go ba le diphošo tša ARIMA o phadile mekgwa ye mengwe ka moka, gwa latela mokgwa wa ARIMA. Dikutollo tše di sepelelana le dikutollo ka kakaretšo ka dingwaleng. Mo k gwa wa ANN o ka fela o fetišiša gomme se se bonagetše go dipoelo tša tlhahlo le dihlo pha t ša teko ya tshedimošo. Mekgwa ya nepagalo ya go ithuta ka metšhene e bontšhitše dipoelo tšeo di hlakantšwego tšeo di nago le kaonafalo ye kgolo go ye mengwe mekgwa ya go ela go phethagatšwa ga mešomo. Go ka phethwa ka gore mekgwa ya setlwaedi ya go akanya dipalopalo (ARIMA le mokgwa wa poelomorago wa go ba le diphošo tša ARIMA) e šomile bokaone go phala mekgwa ya go ithuta ka metšhene (ANN le SVM) ka mo go sehlopha se sa tshedimošo, go eya ka magato a nepagalo ya magato ao a šomišitšwego. Se se nyaka gore go dirwe dinyakišišo tše dingwe mabapi le go dirišega ga mekgwa ya go ithuta ka metšhene mabapi le go akanya molokoloko wa dinako, e lego seo se tlago thuša go kwešiša le go kaonafatša go šoma ga yona kgahlanong le mekgwa ya setlwaedi ya dipalopalo. / Decision Sciences / M. Sc. (Operations Research)

Real-time prediction of taxi demand in a discrete geographical space is useful as it can minimise service disequilibrium by informing idle drivers of the imbalance, incentivising them to reduce it. This, in turn, can lead to improved efficiency, more stimulating work conditions, and a better customer experience. This study aims to investigate the possibility of utilising an artificial neural network model to make such a prediction for Stockholm. The model was trained on historical demand data and - uniquely - crowd flow data from a cellular provider (aggregated and anonymised). Results showed that the final model could generate very helpful predictions (only off by less than 1 booking on average). External factors - including crowd flow data - had a minor positive impact on performance, but limitations regarding the setup of the zones lead to the study being unable to make a definitive conclusion about whether crowd flow data is effective in improving taxi demand predictors or not. / Prognos av taxiefterfrågan i ett diskret geografiskt utrymme är användbart då det kan minimera obalans mellan utbud och efterfrågan genom att informera lediga taxiförare om obalansen och därmed utjämna den. Detta kan i sin tur leda till förbättrad effektivitet, mer stimulerande arbetsförhållanden och en bättre kundupplevelse. Denna studie ämnar att undersöka möjligheten att använda artificiella neurala nätverk för att göra en sådan prognos för Stockholm. Modellen tränades på historisk data om efterfrågan och - unikt för studien - folkströmsdata (aggregerad och anonymiserad) från en mobiloperatör. Resultaten visade att den slutgiltiga modellen kunde generera användbara prognoser (med ett genomsnittligt prognosfel med mindre än 1 bil per tidsenhet). Externa faktorer – inklusive folkströmsdata – hade en märkbar positiv inverkan på prestandan, men begränsningar rörande framställningen av zonerna ledde till att studien inte kunde dra en definitiv slutsats om huruvida folkströmsdata är effektiva för att förbättra prognoser för taxiefterfrågan eller ej.